MA+Exponential smoothFORECASTFORECASTPerioadaLunaCerereaExponential smoothingErrorABSError %Sq.Error3 month Moving AverageTREND()0.367Date istorice privind cererea de produse1Ian.113113113Den.ENDen. RO2Feb.101101101MEEM=-43Martie838383MAEEMA=104Aprilie969696MAPEEPMA=10%5Mai108108108MSEEMP=2386Iunie7979797Iulie1171171178Aug.9090909Sept.79797910Oct.10410410411Nov.10110110112Dec.85858585Orizont de prognoza13Ian.8985-444%1596909014Feb.8586111%194898915Martie11786-313127%98792888816Aprilie10098-222%394878717Mai11199-121211%14693868618Iunie102103111%093868619Iulie116103-131311%17593858520Aug.112108-443%1593848421Sept.119109-10109%10793838322Oct.117113-443%1593828223Nov.77114373748%136293818124Dec.105100-555%30938080Exponential Smoothing:Ft+1= Ft+ alpha*(Dt-Ft)Moving Average 3 month:Ft+1= (Ft+Ft-1+Ft-2)/3Trend:Ft+1= a+b*tSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.2567971526R Square0.0659447776Adjusted R Square-0.0274607447Standard Error13.262677299Observations12ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1124.185319817124.1853198170.70600512660.4204087272Residual101758.9860913802175.898609138Total111883.1714111971CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%Intercept102.31985478748.162613615612.53518292130.000000193684.1324182568120.50729131884.1324182568120.507291318X Variable 1-0.93189527841.1090807923-0.84024111220.4204087272-3.40308128161.5392907248-3.40308128161.5392907248

Author:valoarea alpha

MA+Exponential smooth

Cererea previzionata ExpSmoothCerere previzionata cu TRENDCererea previzionata cu Moving AverageCererea reala

Holt-Winters Exp smoothFORECASTLtTtStFtPerioadaLunaCerereaExponential smoothingLevelTrendSeasonalHolt-Winters Exp_smoothErrorABSError %Sq.Error0.100Date istorice privind cererea de produse1Ian.113Den.ENDen. RO2Feb.93MEEM=1.8808715701alpha=0.103Martie151MAEEMA=21.3757140734beta=0.304Aprilie125MAPEEPMA=14%gamma=0.205Mai103MSEEMP=583.61730129646Iunie1407Iulie1158Aug.999Sept.16810Oct.1400.9911Nov.1200.8512Dec.16416414121.16Orizont de prognoza13Ian.13916414320.99142332%914Feb.14916214830.88123-262617%67315Martie13016114721.11175454535%202616Aprilie17615815231.02147-292917%86217Mai16016015730.91136-242415%58918Iunie14716015831.07177303021%90819Iulie15915916021.02164553%2120Aug.17315916530.94147-262615%66321Sept.15616016631.04180242415%58122Oct.18316017031.03171-12126%13623Nov.14516217120.92162171712%27924Dec.16516017221.03181161610%257Exponential Smoothing:Ft+1= Ft+ alpha*(Dt-Ft)Moving Average 3 month:Ft+1= (Ft+Ft-1+Ft-2)/3Trend:Ft+1= a+b*tHolt-Winters Exp. Smoothing=Ft+1=(Lt+Tt)*St-s

Author:valoarea alpha

Holt-Winters Exp smooth

Cererea previzionata ExpSmoothCererea realaCerere prev. Cu Holt-Winters ExpSmooth

extrapolare200927118135201027671567201125376663201223276152201320812455201421853077201519451027.7999997201618050938.1714287

extrapolare

Extrapolare

regresietLunaYt*Yt*tDate istorice privind cererea de produse1Ian.113112.51335184791Suma YSuma t*YSuma tSuma t*t60842Feb.101202.6940519425411557375.216742454378650a=90101.733207190278003Martie83249.23960081799936-17164Aprilie96383.8454542681660845Mai108541.13696707052588502.60090945161599.13102.30731930966Iunie79472.495742667936936-1716-0.93189527847Iulie117815.91412091434978008Aug.90723.8392284921649Sept.79708.62550737028110Oct.1041042.104556413510011Nov.1011106.921201208512112Dec.851015.8869594409144Orizont de prognoza13Ian.8914Feb.8515Martie11716Aprilie10017Mai11118Iunie10219Iulie11620Aug.11221Sept.11922Oct.11723Nov.7724Dec.105Exponential Smoothing:Moving Average 3 month:Ft+1= (Ft+Ft-1+Ft-2)/3Trend:Ft+1= a+b*tSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.2567971526R Square0.0659447776Adjusted R Square-0.0274607447Standard Error13.262677299Observations12ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1124.185319817124.1853198170.70600512660.4204087272Residual101758.9860913802175.898609138Total111883.1714111971CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%Intercept102.31985478748.162613615612.53518292130.000000193684.1324182568120.50729131884.1324182568120.507291318X Variable 1-0.93189527841.1090807923-0.84024111220.4204087272-3.40308128161.5392907248-3.40308128161.5392907248

regresie

Cererea previzionata ExpSmoothCerere previzionata cu TRENDCererea previzionata cu Moving AverageCererea reala

Lanturi MarkovCotele de piata initialeMatricea de tranzitieMatricea transpusaStieproxDucrayNizoralStieproxDucrayNizoralS0S1S2S3S4S5S6S7S8S9S10S11S12S13S14S15S16S17S18S19S20S21S22S23S24S25S26S27S28S29Stieprox0.2Stieprox50%20%30%Stieprox50%20%10.0%0.20.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.21Ducray0.3Ducray20%60%20%Ducray20%60%10.0%0.30.270.260.250.250.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.240.24Nizoral0.5Nizoral10.0%10.0%80%Nizoral30%20%80%0.50.520.530.540.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.550.55StieproxDucrayNizoralS0S1S2S3S4S5Prognoza utilizand lanturi MarkovS00.200.300.50Stieprox0.200.210.210.210.210.21S10.210.270.52Ducray0.300.270.260.250.250.24S20.210.260.53Nizoral0.500.520.530.540.550.55S30.210.250.54S40.210.250.55S50.210.240.55S60.210.240.55S70.210.240.55S80.210.240.55S90.210.240.55S100.210.240.55S110.210.240.55S120.210.240.55S130.210.240.55S140.210.240.55

Lanturi Markov

StieproxDucrayNizoral

Foaie3