analiza mediul cert si analiza mediului incert transgaz sa

7/31/2019 Analiza Mediul Cert Si Analiza Mediului Incert Transgaz SA

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31.12.2010

497,791,432

78,829,250

7,295,310

396,222,107

2,731,187,567

46,091,817

558,979,824

20,992,549

6,636,035

-

27,654,123

333,719,058

171,851,407

25,755,236

1,540,861

357,177,874

203,263,326

3,478,334,142

564,224,722

31,249,312

296,513,318

117738440

-

514995580

25,539

2,248,840,900

3,275,070,816


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1579143738

-

-

-

-

1,804,469

376,352,986

-

-

2,586,426,275

2,586,426,275


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31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010

1. Cifra de afaceri neta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932

Productia vanduta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932

Venituri din vanzarea

marfurilor0 0 0

Venituri din dobanzi

inregistrate de entitatile

alcaror obiect de activitate

il constituie leasingul

0 0 0

Venituri din subventii de

exploatare aferente cifrei de

afaceri nete

0 0 0

2.Variatia stocurilor de

produse finite si a

productiei in curs de

executieSold C 3,404,406 3,694,052 0

Sold D 0 0 1,553,6173.Productia realizata de

entitate pentru scopurile

sale proprii si

capitalizata

1,035,626 2,262,656 6,414,751

4.Alte venituri din

exploatare14,488,080 26,707,803 25,074,305

VENITURI DIN

EXPLOATARE TOTAL1,138,318,102 1,220,014,804 1,342,933,371

5.a)Cheltuieli cu materii

prime si materiale

consumabile

214,797,022 171,736,850 154,042,611

Alte cheltuieli materiale 4,696,015 4,272,567 4,400,391b)Alte cheltuieli

externe(cu energia si

apa)

4,562,142 5,160,003 5,512,957

c)Cheltuieli privind

marfurile0 0 0

6.Cheltuieli cu personalul

din care:208,185,701 224,549,127 250,644,153

a)Salarii si indemnizatii 164,565,436 175,376,233 194,404,585

b)Cheltuieli cu

asigurarile si protectia

sociala

43,620,265 49,172,894 56,239,568

7.a)Ajustari de valoareprivind imobilizarile

corporale si necorporale

86,831,300 127,557,350 135,266,706

a.1)Cheltuieli 86,931,300 127,557,350 135,266,706

a.2)Venituri 0 0 0

b)Ajustari de valoare

privind activele

circulante

-3,125,020 1,698,061 -35,989,111

b.1)Cheltuieli 11,360,276 14,273,550 8,169,746

Denumirea indicatoruluiREALIZARI AFERENTE PERIOADEI DE RAPORTARE


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b.2)Venituri 14,485,296 12,575,409 11,158,857

8.Alte cheltuieli de

exploatare338,826,267 338,280,208 385,428,756

8.1.Cheltuieli privind

prestatiile externe140,879,076 136,023,032 159,670,746

8.2.Cheltuieli cu alte

impozite,taxe si

varsaminte asimilate

124,384,557 124,925,289 151,782,676

8.3.Cheltuieli cu

despagubiri,donatii si

active cedate

73,562,634 77,331,887 73,975,334

Cheltuieli privind

dobanzile de refinantare

inregistrate de entitatile

al caror obiect de

activitate il constituie

leasin ul

0 0 0

Ajustari privind

provizioanele2,501,516 1,611,060 -37,204

Cheltuieli 9,797,931 9,130,682 7,818,207Venituri 7,296,415 7,519,226 7,855,411

CHELTUIELI DE

EXPLOATARE TOTAL857,374,943 874,867,226 899,269,259

PROFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA DIN

EXPLOATARE

PROFIT 280,943,159 345,147,578 443,664,112

PIERDERE 0 0 0

9.Venituri din interese de

participare0 0 0

-din care,venituri

obtinute de la entitatileafiliate

0 0 0

10.Venituri din alte

investitii si imprumuturi

care fac parte din

activele imobilizate

38 100 171

-din care,veniturile

obtinute de la entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

11.Venituri din dobanzi 31,066,183 34,717,805 14,836,179

-din care veniturile

obtinute de la entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

Alte venituri financiare 6,501,895 3,735,189 19,340,175

VENITURI FINANCIARE

TOTAL37,568,116 38,453,094 34,176,525

12.Ajustari de valoare

privind imobilizarile

financiare si investitiile

detinute ca active

circulante

-997 0 0

-Cheltuieli 0 0 0


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-Venituri 997 0 0

13.Cheltuieli privind

dobanzile16,585,022 12,645,100 5,462,109

-din care cheltuieli in

relatia cu entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

Alte cheltuieli financiare 16,784,616 9,674,067 20,874,007

CHELTUIELI FINANCIARE

TOTAL33,368,641 22,319,167 26,336,116

PTOFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA FINANCIARA

-Profit 4,199,475 16,133,927 7,840,409

-Pierdere 0 0 0

14.Profitul sau pierderea

curenta

-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521

- pierdere 0 0 0

15.Venituri extraordinare 0 0 0

16.Cheltuieli

extraordinare0 0 0

17.Profitul sau pierderea

sin activitatea

extraordinara

-profit 0 0 0

- pierdere 0 0 0

VENITURI TOTALE 1,175,886,218 1,258,467,898 1,377,109,896

CHELTUIELI TOTALE 890,743,584 897,186,393 925,605,375

PROFITUL SAUPIERDEREA BRUTA

-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521

-perdere 0 0 0

18.Impozitul pe profit 46,135,544 62,649,964 75,151,535

19.Alte impozite

nereprezentate la

elemente;e de mai sus

0 0 0

20PROFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA NETA A

EXERCITIULUI

FINANCIAR

-PROFIT 239,007,090 298,631,541 376,352,986-PIERDERE 0 0 0


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cv cf

925,382,226 25,901,301

-200,000,000

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000


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CFDacum

20,433,106.20

55,677,421.99 >I0

91,098,353.61126,684,042.61

161,775,136.39

267.59 zile

268.00 zile


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13.04.2011 3,578.17 0.00717812.04.2011 3,549.77 -0.00794

11.04.2011 3,584.13 0.0096808.04.2011 3,628.25 0.0123107.04.2011 3,596.47 -0.0087606.04.2011 3,569.61 -0.0074705.04.2011 3,547.63 -0.0061604.04.2011 3,525.54 -0.0062301.04.2011 3,553.98 0.00806731.03.2011 3,524.27 -0.0083630.03.2011 3,537.63 0.00379129.03.2011 3,539.62 0.00056328.03.2011 3,567.15 0.00777825.03.2011 3,596.12 0.00812124.03.2011 3,500.78 -0.0265123.03.2011 3,466.73 -0.0097322.03.2011 3,468.60 0.00053921.03.2011 3,441.86 -0.0077118.03.2011 3,372.01 -0.0202917.03.2011 3,409.42 0.011094

16.03.2011 3,393.69 -0.0046115.03.2011 3,337.51 -0.0165514.03.2011 3,425.67 0.026415

11.03.2011 3,428.66 0.00087310.03.2011 3,463.92 0.01028409.03.2011 3,427.05 -0.0106408.03.2011 3,410.41 -0.0048607.03.2011 3,410.05 -0.0001104.03.2011 3,403.78 -0.0018403.03.2011 3,400.35 -0.0010102.03.2011 3,358.13 -0.0124201.03.2011 3,373.49 0.004574

28.02.2011 3,412.29 0.01150125.02.2011 3,337.51 -0.0219124.02.2011 3,288.92 -0.0145623.02.2011 3,344.78 0.01698422.02.2011 3,293.18 -0.0154321.02.2011 3,302.21 0.00274218.02.2011 3,327.93 0.00778917.02.2011 3,300.94 -0.0081116.02.2011 3,278.29 -0.0068615.02.2011 3,296.69 0.00561314.02.2011 3,288.83 -0.00238

11.02.2011 3,276.50 -0.0037510.02.2011 3,308.53 0.00977609.02.2011 3,348.77 0.01216308.02.2011 3,322.54 -0.0078307.02.2011 3,327.01 0.00134504.02.2011 3,303.52 -0.0070603.02.2011 3,327.63 0.00729802.02.2011 3,360.16 0.00977601.02.2011 3,297.08 -0.0187731.01.2011 3,293.47 -0.0010928.01.2011 3,336.46 0.013053

27.01.2011 3,354.92 0.005533


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d o rata fara risc +prima de risc

actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN

esAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011

dCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1


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Stare

economica

Probabilitate de

aparitie(%)VAN

Declin 20.00% 47,588,322.66

Stabilitate 60.00% 134,625,803.35

Crestere 20.00% 190,256,497.26

Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 3,209,161.91 1,500,000.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Declin 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67

Stabilitate 38,710,879.45 44,136,086.34 48,856,840.11 54,077,152.91 58,784,689.02

Crestere 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54

E(VAN) = 128,344,445.99

= 45,766,843.67

e-3 -8,956,085 0.0015

e-2 36,810,759 0.025

e-1 82,577,602 0.16

e 128,344,446 0.627

e+1 174,111,290 0.16

e+2 219,878,133 0.025e+3 265,644,977 0.0015

/E 0.356593878


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47,588,322.66 -80,756,123.33 6,521,551,455,691,960.00 1,304,310,291,138,390.00

134,625,803.35 6,281,357.35 39,455,450,209,542.90 23,673,270,125,725.70

190,256,497.26 61,912,051.27 3,833,102,092,493,090.00 766,620,418,498,618.00

2,094,603,979,762,740.00

[ ] * PVAN VAN - E(VAN) ()2

()2

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

47,588,322.66 134,625,803.35 190,256,497.26

VAN


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Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere

CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00

An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 176,507,770.61 191,510,931.12

ChVariabile 136,651,177.25 148,266,527.32 160,869,182.14

ChFixe 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00

EBE 23,878,795.67 26,091,243.30 28,491,748.98

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98

Impozit pe profit 2,755,407.31 3,109,398.93 3,493,479.84

PN 14,465,888.36 16,324,344.37 18,340,769.14

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14

K 0.1150

1+K 1.1150 1.243225 1.386196

CFD ACTUALIZAT 18,944,742.92 18,485,667.82 18,033,720.63

Calcul VAN 47,588,322.66

CFD I0 1 2

Calculul amortizarii anuale

DECLIN


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81

Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -

Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

207,789,360.26 225,451,455.88 9,500,000.00

174,543,062.62 189,379,222.94 0.00

2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 0.00

31,096,297.64 33,922,232.94 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 9,500,000.00

3,910,207.62 5,427,557.27 1,520,000.00

20,528,590.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00

1.545608 1.723353 1.723353 i0

17,589,248.36 16,534,435.84 4,630,507.10 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00

3 4 5 VR

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010

Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA


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CFDacum

10,534,218.56

29,019,886.38

47,053,607.01 >I064,642,855.36

81,177,291.20

351.54 zile

352.00 zile


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Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere

CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00

An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 182,201,569.67 204,065,758.03

ChVariabile 105,741,982.40 118,431,020.28 132,642,742.72

ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00

EBE 55,437,990.52 62,270,549.38 69,923,015.31

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31


PN 40,975,612.04 46,714,961.48 53,143,032.86

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86

K 0.0880

1+K 1.0880 1.183744 1.287913

CFD ACTUALIZAT 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19 46,432,104.45

Calcul VAN 190,256,497.26

CFD I0 1 2

CRESTERE



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CFDn 46,630,000.00 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48

CFDa -46,630,000.00 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19

Indicator Valoare An

VAN 190,256,497.26 1

IP 5.080130758 2

RIR 92.95% 3TRn 1 an si 132 zile 4

TRa 1 an si 174 zile 5

calcul TRn


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81


Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

228,553,648.99 255,980,086.87 9,500,000.00

148,559,871.84 166,387,056.46 0.00

1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00

78,493,777.15 88,093,030.40 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 9,500,000.00

11,493,804.34 14,094,884.86 1,520,000.00

60,342,472.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00

1.401250 1.524560 1.524560 i0

47,814,436.83 48,537,383.29 5,234,297.64 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00

3 4 5 VR


Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA


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CFDacum

24,925,843.26

70,013,684.45 >I0

116,445,788.91164,260,225.74

212,797,609.03

173.29 zile

174.00 zile


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An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 179,895,073.32 198,931,908.00

ChVariabile 114,654,525.95 126,787,483.31 140,204,373.03

ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00

EBE 46,525,446.97 51,607,590.01 57,227,534.97

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97


PN 33,489,075.45 37,758,075.60 42,478,829.37

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 40,146,575.45 44,415,575.60 49,136,329.37

K 0.1043025

1+K 1.104303 1.219484 1.346679

CFD ACTUALIZAT 36,354,690.36 36,421,613.72 36,487,032.56

Calcul VAN 140,008,924.84


CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica

CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)

PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81


Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

219,983,256.29 243,262,297.81 9,500,000.00

155,041,063.22 171,447,799.85 0.00

1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00

63,442,193.07 70,314,497.96 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 9,500,000.00

9,085,550.89 11,250,319.67 1,520,000.00

47,699,142.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

54,356,642.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00

1.487141 1.642254 1.642254 i0

36,551,095.61 35,965,316.75 4,859,175.83 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00


Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA

analiza mediul cert si analiza mediului incert transgaz sa

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