94214034 analiza mediul cert si analiza mediului incert transgaz sa
TRANSCRIPT
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Calculele diagnosticului financiar
Indicator 2008 2009 2010
FR 121,333,612.00 -34,615,624.00 -93,170,507.00
NFR 33,334,496.00 -56,595,060.00 176,046,714.00TN 87,999,116.00 -60,056,622.00 -82,876,207.00
CF -148,055,738.00 -22,819,585.00
A.Varianta franceza
Indicator 2008 2009 2010
MC 0.00 0.00 0.00
PE 1,123,830,022.00 1,193,307,001.00 1,317,859,066.00
VA 758,895,767.00 876,114,549.00 994,232,361.00
EBE 426,325,509.00 526,640,133.00 591,805,532.00
RE 280,943,159.00 345,149,578.00 443,664,112.00
RF 4,199,475.00 16,133,927.00 7,840,409.00
RB 285,142,634.00 361,283,505.00 451,504,521.00
RN 239,519,812.56 303,478,144.20 379,263,797.64
B.Varianta anglo-saxona
Indicator 2008 2009 2010
EBITDA 434,070,996.00 567,443,040.00 631,358,556.00
EBIT 347,863,200.00 436,576,569.00 532,118,165.00EBT 331,278,178.00 423,931,469.00 526,656,056.00
RN 285,142,634.00 361,281,505.00 451,504,521.00
Indicator 2008 2009 2010CFD 493,694,893.00 338,486,976.00
Indicator 2008 2009 2010
ROE 0.152531885 0.136485496 0.159244294
Rec 0.117481505 0.112256954 0.132078588Gr indat 0.210929341 0.182456615 0.179081949
Levier 0.267313628 0.223176675 0.218148388
L generala 1.718976723 1.415525104 1.564990064
L rapida 1.603031826 1.311755602 1.487566111
L imediata 1.487086929 1.207986099 1.410142158
1. Analiza echilibrului fin
2. Analiza performantei financiare p
3.Analiza fluxuri
4.Diagnosticul rent
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Formula de calcul
FR=CPR + Dat > 1an - Imobilizari
NFR = Active circulante Disponibilitati Datorii < 1anTN=FR-NFR
CF=TN=TN1-TN0
Formula de calcul
MC=Venituri din vanzarea marfurilor-Cheltuieli privind marfurile
PE=Productia vanduta+Variatia stocurilor+Productia imobilizata
VA=MC+PE-Consumuri externeEBE=VA+ven din subventii-ch cu personalul-ch cu alte impozite,taxe si
varsaminte asimilate
RE=EBE+alt ven din exploatare-alte cheltuieli din exploatare
RF=Ven financiare-Chelt financiare
RC=RE+RFRN=RB-Impozit pe profit
Formula de calculEBITDA=Ven tot-chelt tot-ch cu dob-ch cu impz/profit-ajust de valoare
-ajustari pv provizioanele
EBIT=EBITDA-Ajust de valoare-Ajust pv provizioaneleEBT=EBIT-Chelt cu dob
RN=EBT-Impozit pe profit
Formula de calculPN+Dobanzi-(Imob1-Imob0)-(Acirc1-Acirc0-Dat1an)/(CPR+Dat>1an)
Levier=(Dat>1an)/CPR
Lichiditate generala=Active curente/Pasive curente
Lichiditate rapida=(Active curente-Stocuri)/Pasive curente
Lichiditate imediata=(Active curente -Stocuri-Creante)/Pasive curente
anciar pe baza bilantului
e baza contului de profit si pierdere
lor de trezorerie
bilitatii si al riscului
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1.1.2008 31.12.2008 31.12.2009
6 497.865.672 496,254,194 496,083,022
8 53.846.385 76,536,578 74,398,001
9 6.277.296 8,163,324 7,987,438
10 101.205.611 219 238 909 434,997,400
11 1.536.914.804 2,183,623,309 2,441,455,964
18 939,496 1,358,401 19,180,669
35 573.719.841 597,873,208 476,824,992
20 30.188.259 35,798,080 26,691,646
21 1.091.194 4,495,600 8,189,652
22 26,964 2,266 -
24 31.320.289 40,326,519 34,955,150
30 175.780.842 228,685,324 245,303,577
33 0 112,130,276 -
34 366.618.710 216,731,089 196,566,265
36 866.461 873,297 1,340,179
45 311.163.974 347,807,623 336,853,787
46 259.097.372 249,253,607 141,211,185
47 2.294.817.344 2,930,489,511 3,097,930,840
56 608.662.481 584,884,716 527,448,777
60 27.173.940 29,675,456 31,286,516
66 96.373.889 129605270 175,927,548
70 117.738.440 117738440 117738440
71 251.933.300 0 -
72 98.309.305 586393642 550825229
I. Capital
II. Prime de capital
III. Rezerve din
reevaluare
J. CAPITAL SI REZERVE
Total stocuri:
II. Creante
III. Investitii pe termen
IV. Casa si conturi la banci
C. CHELTUIELI IN AVANS
D. DATORII: Sumele care
trebuie platite intr-o
perioada de pana la un an:
E. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE /
DATORII CURENTE NETE
F. TOTAL ACTIVE MINUS
DATORII CURENTE
G. DATORII: Sumele care
trebuie platite intr-o
perioada mai mare de unan:
H. PROVIZIOANE
I. VENITURI IN AVANS:
I. Stocuri
1. Materii prime si materiale
consumabile
2. Productia in curs de
executie
3. Produse finite si marfuri
4. Avansuri pentru
cumparari stocuri23 13,872 30,573 73,852
B. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE
I. Imobilizari necorporale
II.Imobilizari corporale
1. Terenuri si constructii 7 1.375.585.512 1,879,684,498 1,924,073,125
2. Instalatii tehnice si masini
3. Alte instalatii, utilaje si
mobilier
4. Avansuri si imobilizari
corporale in curs
Total imobilizari
III. Imobilizari financiare
Denumirea indicatorului Nr. rd.SOLD LA:
A. ACTIVE IMOBILIZATE 19 2.035.719.972,00 2,681,235,904 2,956,719,655
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77 888.133.215 1255277282 1397977997
78 - - -
79
-
- -
80-
- -
81 - - -
82 10.407.110 10,407,110 1,804,469
83 224.006.454 239,007,090 298,631,541
84 - - -
85 2.781.614 - -
87 - - -
88 1.566.931.990 2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738
1.566.931.990
Patrimoniul public
CAPITALURI - TOTAL
Sold D
Repartizarea profitului
CAPITALURI PROPRII -
TOTAL (rd. 70+71+72+77-
78+79-80+81-82+83-84-
85)
86 2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738
Sold C
IV. Rezerve
Actiuni proprii
Castiguri legate de
instrumentele de
capitaluri proprii
Pierderi legate de
instrumentele decapitaluri proprii
V. Profitul sau pierderea reportat:
Sold C
Sold D
VI. Profitul sau pierderea exercitiului financiar:
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31.12.2010
497,791,432
78,829,250
7,295,310
396,222,107
2,731,187,567
46,091,817
558,979,824
20,992,549
6,636,035
-
27,654,123
333,719,058
171,851,407
25,755,236
1,540,861
357,177,874
203,263,326
3,478,334,142
564,224,722
31,249,312
296,513,318
117738440
-
514995580
25,539
2,248,840,900
3,275,070,816
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1579143738
-
-
-
-
1,804,469
376,352,986
-
-
2,586,426,275
2,586,426,275
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31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010
1. Cifra de afaceri neta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932
Productia vanduta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932
Venituri din vanzarea
marfurilor0 0 0
Venituri din dobanzi
inregistrate de entitatile
alcaror obiect de activitate
il constituie leasingul
0 0 0
Venituri din subventii de
exploatare aferente cifrei de
afaceri nete
0 0 0
2.Variatia stocurilor de
produse finite si a
productiei in curs de
executieSold C 3,404,406 3,694,052 0
Sold D 0 0 1,553,6173.Productia realizata de
entitate pentru scopurile
sale proprii si
capitalizata
1,035,626 2,262,656 6,414,751
4.Alte venituri din
exploatare14,488,080 26,707,803 25,074,305
VENITURI DIN
EXPLOATARE TOTAL1,138,318,102 1,220,014,804 1,342,933,371
5.a)Cheltuieli cu materii
prime si materiale
consumabile
214,797,022 171,736,850 154,042,611
Alte cheltuieli materiale 4,696,015 4,272,567 4,400,391b)Alte cheltuieli
externe(cu energia si
apa)
4,562,142 5,160,003 5,512,957
c)Cheltuieli privind
marfurile0 0 0
6.Cheltuieli cu personalul
din care:208,185,701 224,549,127 250,644,153
a)Salarii si indemnizatii 164,565,436 175,376,233 194,404,585
b)Cheltuieli cu
asigurarile si protectia
sociala
43,620,265 49,172,894 56,239,568
7.a)Ajustari de valoareprivind imobilizarile
corporale si necorporale
86,831,300 127,557,350 135,266,706
a.1)Cheltuieli 86,931,300 127,557,350 135,266,706
a.2)Venituri 0 0 0
b)Ajustari de valoare
privind activele
circulante
-3,125,020 1,698,061 -35,989,111
b.1)Cheltuieli 11,360,276 14,273,550 8,169,746
Denumirea indicatoruluiREALIZARI AFERENTE PERIOADEI DE RAPORTARE
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b.2)Venituri 14,485,296 12,575,409 11,158,857
8.Alte cheltuieli de
exploatare338,826,267 338,280,208 385,428,756
8.1.Cheltuieli privind
prestatiile externe140,879,076 136,023,032 159,670,746
8.2.Cheltuieli cu alte
impozite,taxe si
varsaminte asimilate
124,384,557 124,925,289 151,782,676
8.3.Cheltuieli cu
despagubiri,donatii si
active cedate
73,562,634 77,331,887 73,975,334
Cheltuieli privind
dobanzile de refinantare
inregistrate de entitatile
al caror obiect de
activitate il constituie
leasin ul
0 0 0
Ajustari privind
provizioanele2,501,516 1,611,060 -37,204
Cheltuieli 9,797,931 9,130,682 7,818,207Venituri 7,296,415 7,519,226 7,855,411
CHELTUIELI DE
EXPLOATARE TOTAL857,374,943 874,867,226 899,269,259
PROFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA DIN
EXPLOATARE
PROFIT 280,943,159 345,147,578 443,664,112
PIERDERE 0 0 0
9.Venituri din interese de
participare0 0 0
-din care,venituri
obtinute de la entitatileafiliate
0 0 0
10.Venituri din alte
investitii si imprumuturi
care fac parte din
activele imobilizate
38 100 171
-din care,veniturile
obtinute de la entitatile
afiliate
0 0 0
11.Venituri din dobanzi 31,066,183 34,717,805 14,836,179
-din care veniturile
obtinute de la entitatile
afiliate
0 0 0
Alte venituri financiare 6,501,895 3,735,189 19,340,175
VENITURI FINANCIARE
TOTAL37,568,116 38,453,094 34,176,525
12.Ajustari de valoare
privind imobilizarile
financiare si investitiile
detinute ca active
circulante
-997 0 0
-Cheltuieli 0 0 0
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-Venituri 997 0 0
13.Cheltuieli privind
dobanzile16,585,022 12,645,100 5,462,109
-din care cheltuieli in
relatia cu entitatile
afiliate
0 0 0
Alte cheltuieli financiare 16,784,616 9,674,067 20,874,007
CHELTUIELI FINANCIARE
TOTAL33,368,641 22,319,167 26,336,116
PTOFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA FINANCIARA
-Profit 4,199,475 16,133,927 7,840,409
-Pierdere 0 0 0
14.Profitul sau pierderea
curenta
-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521
- pierdere 0 0 0
15.Venituri extraordinare 0 0 0
16.Cheltuieli
extraordinare0 0 0
17.Profitul sau pierderea
sin activitatea
extraordinara
-profit 0 0 0
- pierdere 0 0 0
VENITURI TOTALE 1,175,886,218 1,258,467,898 1,377,109,896
CHELTUIELI TOTALE 890,743,584 897,186,393 925,605,375
PROFITUL SAUPIERDEREA BRUTA
-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521
-perdere 0 0 0
18.Impozitul pe profit 46,135,544 62,649,964 75,151,535
19.Alte impozite
nereprezentate la
elemente;e de mai sus
0 0 0
20PROFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA NETA A
EXERCITIULUI
FINANCIAR
-PROFIT 239,007,090 298,631,541 376,352,986-PIERDERE 0 0 0
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cv cf
925,382,226 25,901,301
-200,000,000
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
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Series3
Series2
Series1
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An Vi Aa VramdeAm
1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500
2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000
3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0
Element 1 2 3
CA 162,679,972.92 179,895,073.32 198,931,908.00
ChVariabile 114,654,525.95 126,787,483.31 140,204,373.03
ChFixe 3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91
EBE 44,816,285.06 49,898,428.10 55,518,373.06
Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00
EBIT 38,158,785.06 43,240,928.10 48,860,873.06
Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT 38,158,785.06 43,240,928.10 48,860,873.06
Impozit pe profit 6,105,405.61 6,918,548.50 7,817,739.69
PN 32,053,379.45 36,322,379.60 41,043,133.37
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
CFD 38,710,879.45 42,979,879.60 47,700,633.37
K 0.1043025
1+K 1.104303 1.219484 1.346679
CFD ACTUALIZAT 35,054,597.32 35,244,315.79 35,420,931.62
Calcul VAN 134,625,803.35
CFD I0 1 2
CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica
CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)
PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit
Calculul amortizarii anuale
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CFDn 46,630,000.00 38,710,879.45 42,979,879.60
CFDa -46,630,000.00 35,054,597.32 35,244,315.79
Indicator Valoare An
VAN 134,625,803.35 1
IP 3.887107084 2
RIR 71% 3TRn 2 ani si 96 zile 4
TRa 2 ani si 268 zile 5
calcul TRn
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CA2009 1,187,350,293
CA2010 1,312,997,932
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879
PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00
CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92
2011 162,679,972.92
2012 179,895,073.32
2013 198,931,908.00
2014 219,983,256.29
2015 243,262,297.81
Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -
Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197
ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048
4 5 VR
219,983,256.29 243,262,297.81 9,500,000.00
155,041,063.22 171,447,799.85 0.00
3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91 0.00
61,733,031.16 68,605,336.05 0.00
6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00
55,075,531.16 68,605,336.05 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
55,075,531.16 68,605,336.05 9,500,000.00
8,812,084.99 10,976,853.77 1,520,000.00
46,263,446.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
52,920,946.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00
1.487141 1.642254 1.642254i0
35,585,689.00 35,091,093.78 4,859,175.83 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00
3 4 5 VR
Calcul g
Calcul CA2011
Estimare CA
Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010
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47,700,633.37 52,920,946.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00
35,420,931.62 35,585,689.00 35,091,093.78 4,859,175.83
CFDn CFDncum An CFDa
38,710,879.45 22,564,330.26 1 35,054,597.32
42,979,879.60 65,544,209.86 >I0 2 35,244,315.79
47,700,633.37 113,244,843.23 3 35,420,931.6252,920,946.17 166,165,789.41 4 35,585,689.00
57,628,482.29 223,794,271.69 5 35,091,093.78
2 ani 95.54 zile calcul TRa 2 ani
96.00 zile
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CFDacum
20,433,106.20
55,677,421.99 >I0
91,098,353.61126,684,042.61
161,775,136.39
267.59 zile
268.00 zile
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BET-C Indicator Valoare(Lei) Rf 6%
30.11.2011 2,585.64 - BETA i 0,75
29.11.2011 2,558.59 -0.01046 E(RM) 0.00093
28.11.2011 2,549.68 -0.00348
25.11.2011 2,586.31 0.014367
24.11.2011 2,584.46 -0.00072
23.11.2011 2,620.85 0.01408 E(Ri)=Rf-Bi(E(RM)-Rf)22.11.2011 2,658.61 0.014408 E(Ri)=k
21.11.2011 2,678.70 0.007557 =>k=0.06-0.75(0.00093-0.06)
18.11.2011 2,706.68 0.010445 0.10430317.11.2011 2,732.97 0.009713
16.11.2011 2,749.54 0.006063
15.11.2011 2,755.01 0.001989
14.11.2011 2,764.05 0.003281
11.11.2011 2,780.34 0.00589410.11.2011 2,757.49 -0.00822
09.11.2011 2,770.44 0.004696
08.11.2011 2,776.41 0.002155
07.11.2011 2,777.34 0.00033504.11.2011 2,754.68 -0.00816
03.11.2011 2,724.70 -0.01088
02.11.2011 2,719.09 -0.00206
01.11.2011 2,730.66 0.004255
31.10.2011 2,795.41 0.023712
28.10.2011 2,838.51 0.015418
27.10.2011 2,852.16 0.00480926.10.2011 2,752.62 -0.034925.10.2011 2,754.24 0.000589
24.10.2011 2,764.37 0.003678
21.10.2011 2,757.07 -0.00264
20.10.2011 2,724.65 -0.0117619.10.2011 2,736.85 0.004478
18.10.2011 2,713.68 -0.00847
17.10.2011 2,739.45 0.009496
14.10.2011 2,724.26 -0.00554
13.10.2011 2,702.67 -0.0079312.10.2011 2,737.60 0.01292411.10.2011 2,732.27 -0.00195
10.10.2011 2,715.05 -0.0063
07.10.2011 2,747.02 0.011775
06.10.2011 2,627.23 -0.04361
05.10.2011 2,579.67 -0.0181
04.10.2011 2,565.37 -0.00554
03.10.2011 2,600.03 0.013511
30.09.2011 2,648.19 0.018523
29.09.2011 2,661.96 0.005228.09.2011 2,643.38 -0.00698
27.09.2011 2,671.84 0.010767
26.09.2011 2,596.95 -0.02803
23.09.2011 2,618.48 0.00829
22.09.2011 2,662.06 0.016643
21.09.2011 2,742.50 0.030217
20.09.2011 2,725.87 -0.00606
Data Indice BET-
C
Calculul ratei de actualizare ca fiin
Sursa
http://www.kmarket.ro/
http://www.bvb.ro/Indic
http://www.bvb.ro/Liste
http://www.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGNhttp://www.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011http://www.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1http://www.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1http://www.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011http://www.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN -
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19.09.2011 2,709.49 -0.00601
16.09.2011 2,735.47 0.009589
15.09.2011 2,756.67 0.00775
14.09.2011 2,746.67 -0.00363
13.09.2011 2,711.76 -0.01271
12.09.2011 2,737.05 0.009326
09.09.2011 2,841.75 0.038253
08.09.2011 2,868.53 0.009424
07.09.2011 2,879.62 0.003866
06.09.2011 2,803.42 -0.02646
05.09.2011 2,805.83 0.00086
02.09.2011 2,867.95 0.02214
01.09.2011 2,916.15 0.01680631.08.2011 2,917.41 0.00043230.08.2011 2,867.52 -0.0171
29.08.2011 2,862.96 -0.00159
26.08.2011 2,798.17 -0.02263
25.08.2011 2,817.99 0.007083
24.08.2011 2,803.65 -0.00509
23.08.2011 2,779.13 -0.00875
22.08.2011 2,761.88 -0.0062119.08.2011 2,730.20 -0.0114718.08.2011 2,796.60 0.02432117.08.2011 2,898.65 0.036491
16.08.2011 2,854.80 -0.01513
12.08.2011 2,865.28 0.003671
11.08.2011 2,735.79 -0.04519
10.08.2011 2,752.11 0.005965
09.08.2011 2,666.86 -0.03098
08.08.2011 2,759.96 0.03491
05.08.2011 2,980.86 0.080037
04.08.2011 3,131.60 0.050569
03.08.2011 3,172.90 0.01318802.08.2011 3,230.15 0.018043
01.08.2011 3,276.17 0.014247
29.07.2011 3,221.67 -0.01664
28.07.2011 3,226.01 0.001347
27.07.2011 3,229.19 0.000986
26.07.2011 3,256.70 0.008519
25.07.2011 3,261.44 0.001455
22.07.2011 3,274.70 0.004066
21.07.2011 3,256.41 -0.00559
20.07.2011 3,254.55 -0.00057
19.07.2011 3,247.98 -0.00202
18.07.2011 3,240.00 -0.00246
15.07.2011 3,288.38 0.014932
14.07.2011 3,277.44 -0.00333
13.07.2011 3,306.28 0.0088
12.07.2011 3,301.19 -0.00154
11.07.2011 3,351.59 0.015267
08.07.2011 3,383.29 0.009458
07.07.2011 3,400.04 0.004951
06.07.2011 3,397.01 -0.00089
05.07.2011 3,415.94 0.00557304.07.2011 3,351.16 -0.01896
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01.07.2011 3,318.73 -0.00968
30.06.2011 3,312.27 -0.00195
29.06.2011 3,320.98 0.00263
28.06.2011 3,310.01 -0.0033
27.06.2011 3,278.59 -0.00949
24.06.2011 3,312.73 0.010413
23.06.2011 3,310.64 -0.00063
22.06.2011 3,366.38 0.016837
21.06.2011 3,357.50 -0.00264
20.06.2011 3,343.71 -0.00411
17.06.2011 3,353.58 0.002952
16.06.2011 3,349.16 -0.00132
15.06.2011 3,390.12 0.0122314.06.2011 3,401.11 0.00324210.06.2011 3,380.75 -0.00599
09.06.2011 3,400.90 0.00596
08.06.2011 3,430.08 0.00858
07.06.2011 3,388.22 -0.0122
06.06.2011 3,353.04 -0.01038
03.06.2011 3,313.12 -0.01191
02.06.2011 3,307.82 -0.001601.06.2011 3,342.86 0.01059331.05.2011 3,285.94 -0.0170330.05.2011 3,275.12 -0.00329
27.05.2011 3,282.94 0.002388
26.05.2011 3,260.77 -0.00675
25.05.2011 3,246.71 -0.00431
24.05.2011 3,284.95 0.011778
23.05.2011 3,308.79 0.007257
20.05.2011 3,342.80 0.010279
19.05.2011 3,340.35 -0.00073
18.05.2011 3,342.50 0.000644
17.05.2011 3,353.29 0.00322816.05.2011 3,385.00 0.009456
13.05.2011 3,397.81 0.003784
12.05.2011 3,354.95 -0.01261
11.05.2011 3,372.45 0.005216
10.05.2011 3,405.11 0.009684
09.05.2011 3,431.89 0.007865
06.05.2011 3,437.91 0.001754
05.05.2011 3,424.47 -0.00391
04.05.2011 3,426.88 0.000704
03.05.2011 3,422.04 -0.00141
02.05.2011 3,481.33 0.017326
29.04.2011 3,528.33 0.013501
28.04.2011 3,558.14 0.008449
27.04.2011 3,530.61 -0.00774
26.04.2011 3,508.09 -0.00638
22.04.2011 3,519.62 0.003287
21.04.2011 3,501.96 -0.00502
20.04.2011 3,534.98 0.009429
19.04.2011 3,493.38 -0.01177
18.04.2011 3,509.41 0.004589
15.04.2011 3,532.67 0.00662814.04.2011 3,552.67 0.005661
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13.04.2011 3,578.17 0.007178
12.04.2011 3,549.77 -0.00794
11.04.2011 3,584.13 0.00968
08.04.2011 3,628.25 0.01231
07.04.2011 3,596.47 -0.00876
06.04.2011 3,569.61 -0.00747
05.04.2011 3,547.63 -0.00616
04.04.2011 3,525.54 -0.00623
01.04.2011 3,553.98 0.008067
31.03.2011 3,524.27 -0.00836
30.03.2011 3,537.63 0.003791
29.03.2011 3,539.62 0.000563
28.03.2011 3,567.15 0.00777825.03.2011 3,596.12 0.00812124.03.2011 3,500.78 -0.02651
23.03.2011 3,466.73 -0.00973
22.03.2011 3,468.60 0.000539
21.03.2011 3,441.86 -0.00771
18.03.2011 3,372.01 -0.02029
17.03.2011 3,409.42 0.011094
16.03.2011 3,393.69 -0.0046115.03.2011 3,337.51 -0.0165514.03.2011 3,425.67 0.02641511.03.2011 3,428.66 0.000873
10.03.2011 3,463.92 0.010284
09.03.2011 3,427.05 -0.01064
08.03.2011 3,410.41 -0.00486
07.03.2011 3,410.05 -0.00011
04.03.2011 3,403.78 -0.00184
03.03.2011 3,400.35 -0.00101
02.03.2011 3,358.13 -0.01242
01.03.2011 3,373.49 0.004574
28.02.2011 3,412.29 0.01150125.02.2011 3,337.51 -0.02191
24.02.2011 3,288.92 -0.01456
23.02.2011 3,344.78 0.016984
22.02.2011 3,293.18 -0.01543
21.02.2011 3,302.21 0.002742
18.02.2011 3,327.93 0.007789
17.02.2011 3,300.94 -0.00811
16.02.2011 3,278.29 -0.00686
15.02.2011 3,296.69 0.005613
14.02.2011 3,288.83 -0.00238
11.02.2011 3,276.50 -0.00375
10.02.2011 3,308.53 0.009776
09.02.2011 3,348.77 0.012163
08.02.2011 3,322.54 -0.00783
07.02.2011 3,327.01 0.001345
04.02.2011 3,303.52 -0.00706
03.02.2011 3,327.63 0.007298
02.02.2011 3,360.16 0.009776
01.02.2011 3,297.08 -0.01877
31.01.2011 3,293.47 -0.00109
28.01.2011 3,336.46 0.01305327.01.2011 3,354.92 0.005533
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26.01.2011 3,356.05 0.000337
25.01.2011 3,374.10 0.005378
24.01.2011 3,368.36 -0.0017
21.01.2011 3,359.58 -0.00261
20.01.2011 3,399.29 0.01182
19.01.2011 3,422.75 0.006901
18.01.2011 3,405.77 -0.00496
17.01.2011 3,393.23 -0.00368
14.01.2011 3,380.33 -0.0038
13.01.2011 3,385.97 0.001668
12.01.2011 3,382.19 -0.00112
11.01.2011 3,327.92 -0.01605
10.01.2011 3,291.20 -0.0110307.01.2011 3,272.99 -0.0055306.01.2011 3,251.26 -0.00664
05.01.2011 3,180.11 -0.02188
04.01.2011 3,183.12 0.000947
03.01.2011 3,147.95 -0.01105
0.00093=>E(Rm)=
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d o rata fara risc +prima de risc
actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN
esAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011
dCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1
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Stare
economica
Probabilitate de
aparitie(%)VAN
Declin 20.00% 47,588,322.66
Stabilitate 60.00% 134,625,803.35
Crestere 20.00% 190,256,497.26
Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere
CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%
k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%
%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%
CF 2,150,000.00 3,209,161.91 1,500,000.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Declin 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67
Stabilitate 38,710,879.45 44,136,086.34 48,856,840.11 54,077,152.91 58,784,689.02
Crestere 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54
E(VAN) = 128,344,445.99
= 45,766,843.67
e-3 -8,956,085 0.0015
e-2 36,810,759 0.025
e-1 82,577,602 0.16
e 128,344,446 0.627
e+1 174,111,290 0.16
e+2 219,878,133 0.025e+3 265,644,977 0.0015
/E 0.356593878
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47,588,322.66 -80,756,123.33 6,521,551,455,691,960.00 1,304,310,291,138,390.00
134,625,803.35 6,281,357.35 39,455,450,209,542.90 23,673,270,125,725.70
190,256,497.26 61,912,051.27 3,833,102,092,493,090.00 766,620,418,498,618.00
2,094,603,979,762,740.00
[ ] * PVAN VAN - E(VAN) ()2
()2
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
47,588,322.66 134,625,803.35 190,256,497.26
PRO
BABILITATI
VAN
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Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere
CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%
k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%
%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%
CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00
An Vi Aa VramdeAm
1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500
2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000
3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0
Element 1 2 3
CA 162,679,972.92 176,507,770.61 191,510,931.12
ChVariabile 136,651,177.25 148,266,527.32 160,869,182.14
ChFixe 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00
EBE 23,878,795.67 26,091,243.30 28,491,748.98
Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00
EBIT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98
Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98
Impozit pe profit 2,755,407.31 3,109,398.93 3,493,479.84
PN 14,465,888.36 16,324,344.37 18,340,769.14
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
CFD 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14
K 0.1150
1+K 1.1150 1.243225 1.386196
CFD ACTUALIZAT 18,944,742.92 18,485,667.82 18,033,720.63
Calcul VAN 47,588,322.66
CFD I0 1 2
Calculul amortizarii anuale
DECLIN
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CFDn 46,630,000.00 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37
CFDa -46,630,000.00 18,944,742.92 18,485,667.82
Indicator Valoare An
VAN 47,588,322.66 1
IP 2.020551633 2
RIR 28.51% 3TRn 2 ani si 172 zile 4
TRa 2 ani si 352zile 5
calcul TRn
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CA2009 1,187,350,293
CA2010 1,312,997,932
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879
PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00
CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92
2011 162,679,972.92
2012 179,895,073.32
2013 198,931,908.00
2014 219,983,256.29
2015 243,262,297.81
Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -
Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197
ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048
4 5 VR
207,789,360.26 225,451,455.88 9,500,000.00
174,543,062.62 189,379,222.94 0.00
2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 0.00
31,096,297.64 33,922,232.94 0.00
6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00
24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 9,500,000.00
3,910,207.62 5,427,557.27 1,520,000.00
20,528,590.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00
1.545608 1.723353 1.723353i0
17,589,248.36 16,534,435.84 4,630,507.10 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00
3 4 5 VR
Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010
Calcul g
Calcul CA2011
Estimare CA
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24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00
18,033,720.63 17,589,248.36 16,534,435.84 4,630,507.10
CFDn CFDncum An CFDa
21,123,388.36 11,745,653.70 1 18,944,742.92
22,981,844.37 34,727,498.07 2 18,485,667.82
24,998,269.14 59,725,767.21 >I0 3 18,033,720.6327,186,090.02 86,911,857.23 4 17,589,248.36
28,494,675.67 115,406,532.90 5 16,534,435.84
2 ani 171.41 zile calcul TRa 2 ani
172.00 zile
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CFDacum
10,534,218.56
29,019,886.38
47,053,607.01 >I064,642,855.36
81,177,291.20
351.54 zile
352.00 zile
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Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere
CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%
k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%
%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%
CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00
An Vi Aa VramdeAm
1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500
2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000
3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0
Element 1 2 3
CA 162,679,972.92 182,201,569.67 204,065,758.03
ChVariabile 105,741,982.40 118,431,020.28 132,642,742.72
ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00
EBE 55,437,990.52 62,270,549.38 69,923,015.31
Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00
EBIT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31
Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31
Impozit pe profit 7,804,878.48 8,898,087.90 10,122,482.45
PN 40,975,612.04 46,714,961.48 53,143,032.86
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
CFD 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86
K 0.0880
1+K 1.0880 1.183744 1.287913
CFD ACTUALIZAT 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19 46,432,104.45
Calcul VAN 190,256,497.26
CFD I0 1 2
CRESTERE
Calculul amortizarii anuale
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CFDn 46,630,000.00 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48
CFDa -46,630,000.00 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19
Indicator Valoare An
VAN 190,256,497.26 1
IP 5.080130758 2
RIR 92.95% 3TRn 1 an si 132 zile 4
TRa 1 an si 174 zile 5
calcul TRn
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CA2009 1,187,350,293
CA2010 1,312,997,932
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879
PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00
CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92
2011 162,679,972.92
2012 179,895,073.32
2013 198,931,908.00
2014 219,983,256.29
2015 243,262,297.81
Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -
Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197
ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048
4 5 VR
228,553,648.99 255,980,086.87 9,500,000.00
148,559,871.84 166,387,056.46 0.00
1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00
78,493,777.15 88,093,030.40 0.00
6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00
71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 9,500,000.00
11,493,804.34 14,094,884.86 1,520,000.00
60,342,472.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00
1.401250 1.524560 1.524560i0
47,814,436.83 48,537,383.29 5,234,297.64 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00
3 4 5 VR
Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010
Calcul g
Calcul CA2011
Estimare CA
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59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00
46,432,104.45 47,814,436.83 48,537,383.29 5,234,297.64
CFDn CFDncum An CFDa
47,633,112.04 27,119,317.47 1 43,780,433.86
53,372,461.48 80,491,778.95>I0 2 45,087,841.19
59,800,532.86 140,292,311.81 3 46,432,104.4566,999,972.80 207,292,284.61 4 47,814,436.83
73,998,145.54 281,290,430.15 5 48,537,383.29
1 an 131.60 zile calcul TRa 1 an
132.00 zile
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CFDacum
24,925,843.26
70,013,684.45>I0
116,445,788.91164,260,225.74
212,797,609.03
173.29 zile
174.00 zile
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Analiza sensibilitatii
Factor Pesimist Baza Optimist
CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%
k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%
%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%
CF 2,150,000.00 3,209,161.91 1,500,000.00
tabel VAN
Factor Pesimist Baza Optimist
CA 127,847,730.26 139,389,673.55
k 129,380,535.83 143,096,753.93
%CV in CA 50,735,286.08 168,616,335.74
CF 137,961,705.70 140,008,924.84
Elasticitati
Elasticitate VAN
Pesimist-Cert Optimist-Cert media
E(VAN/CA) 0.25587832 0.264112163 0.259995241
E(VAN/k) -0.379884661 -0.402572727 -0.391228694
E(VAN/%CV) -3.248023757 -3.248023757 -3.248023757
E(VAN/CF) -0.075078277 -0.075078277 -0.075078277
Ierarhizarea Elasticitati media
E(VAN/%CV) 3.248023757
E(VAN/k) 0.391228694
E(VAN/CA) 0.259995241
E(VAN/CF) 0.075078277
134,625,803.35
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An Vi Aa VramdeAm
1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500
2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000
3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0
Element 1 2 3
CA 162,679,972.92 179,895,073.32 198,931,908.00
ChVariabile 114,654,525.95 126,787,483.31 140,204,373.03
ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00
EBE 46,525,446.97 51,607,590.01 57,227,534.97
Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00
EBIT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97
Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97
Impozit pe profit 6,378,871.52 7,192,014.40 8,091,205.59
PN 33,489,075.45 37,758,075.60 42,478,829.37
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00
CFD 40,146,575.45 44,415,575.60 49,136,329.37
K 0.1043025
1+K 1.104303 1.219484 1.346679
CFD ACTUALIZAT 36,354,690.36 36,421,613.72 36,487,032.56
Calcul VAN 140,008,924.84
Calculul amortizarii anuale
CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica
CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)
PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit
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CA2009 1,187,350,293
CA2010 1,312,997,932
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879
PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00
CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92
2011 162,679,972.92
2012 179,895,073.32
2013 198,931,908.00
2014 219,983,256.29
2015 243,262,297.81
Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -
Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197
ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048
4 5 VR
219,983,256.29 243,262,297.81 9,500,000.00
155,041,063.22 171,447,799.85 0.00
1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00
63,442,193.07 70,314,497.96 0.00
6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00
56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 9,500,000.00
9,085,550.89 11,250,319.67 1,520,000.00
47,699,142.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
54,356,642.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00
1.487141 1.642254 1.642254i0
36,551,095.61 35,965,316.75 4,859,175.83 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00
Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010
Calcul g
Calcul CA2011
Estimare CA