analiza statisticĂ a circulaŢiei turistice

8/12/2019 ANALIZA STATISTIC A CIRCULAIEI TURISTICE

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Analele Universit ii Constantin Brncui din Trgu Jiu, Seria Litere i tiine Sociale, Nr. 3/2012

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ANALIZA STATISTIC ACIRCULAIEI TURISTICE I ACAPACITII DE CAZARE N

FUNCIUNE N PERIOADA 2000 2009N JUDEUL BRAOV

Aniela BLCESCULector universitar, Universitatea

Constantin Brncui din Trgu Jiu,Facultatea de tiine Economice i

Gestiunea Afacerilor

Marian ZAHARIAProfesor universitar, Universitatea Petrol-

Gaze din Ploieti

AbstractDatorit poziiei geografice, climei, reliefului,

rezervaiilor naturale i a activitilor de agrementjudeul Braov este o zon turistic reprezentativpentru Romnia. Aceastpoziie favorizantn raportcu alte zone turistice din Romnia este reflectati deindicatorii statistici referitori la circulaia turisticicapacitatea de cazare.

n acest articol ne-am propus s analizm dinpunct de vedere statistic evoluia circulaiei turistice ia capacitii de cazare n funciune n aceast zon

fascinant, n perioada 2000 2009.

Cuvinte cheieStructuri de primire turistic, circulaie turistic,

capacitate de cazare n funciune

1. IntroducereNumrul de locuri de cazare puse la

dispoziia turitilor de ctre structurile deprimire turistic cu funciuni de cazareturistic, nmulit cu numrul de zile ct suntdeschise structurile n perioada consideratreprezint capacitatea de cazare turistic n

funciune (exprimat n locuri-zile) . Nu seiau n considerare locurile din camerele saustructurile nchise temporar din lips deturiti, pentru reparaii sau pentru alte motive.

Indicii de utilizare net a capacitii decazare turisticn funciune se calculeazprinraportarea numrului de nnoptri realizate, lacapacitatea de cazare turistic n funciune,

din perioada respectiv.Evoluia circulaiei turistice se manifest

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THETOURISTIC TRAFFIC AND

TOURISTIC ACCOMMODATIONCAPACITY IN OPERATION IN THE

PERIOD 2000 - 2009 IN BRAOV

COUNTY

Aniela BLCESCULecturer PhD, Constantin Brancusi

University of Targu Jiu, Faculty ofEconomics and Business Administration

Marian ZAHARIAProfessor, Petroleum-Gas University of

Ploiesti

AbstractDue to geographical position, climate, landscape,

wildlife and recreational activities Brasov County is atourist area representative for Romania. This favoured

position relative to other tourist areas in Romania isalso reflected in the statistical indicators regarding thetouristic traffic and accommodation capacity inoperation.

In this article we intend to analyze statistically theevolution of tourist traffic and accommodationcapacity in operation in this fascinating area, from2000 to 2009.

KeywordsEstablishments of touristic reception, touristic

traffic, accommodation capacity in operation

1.Introduction

The number of available accommodationsplaces for tourists in establishments oftouristic reception with functions of touristicaccommodation, multiplied with the number

of days are open structures are consideredduring the tourist accommodation capacity(in places-days). There are considered placesof rooms or structures temporarily closed dueto lack of tourists, for repairs or for otherreasons.

Indices of net using touristicaccommodation capacity in operation arecalculated by dividing the total number ofovernight stays and the capacity of touristicaccommodation, in the respective period.

Evolution of touristic traffic occurs underthe influence of complex factors, some


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sub influena unui complex de factori, uniieseniali, alii cu o influenmai redusi mai

puin semnificativ. Ca atare, n analizaconexiunilor vom utiliza modele de corelaieneparametric, n care factorul determinant va

fi capacitatea de cazare n funciune, iarfactorii dependeni vor fi total sosiri de turitii total nnoptri.

2. Analiza indicatorilor circulaieituristice

Evoluia sosirilor turitilor n structurile deprimire turistic din judeul Braov, nperioada 2000-2009 este prezentatn tabelul1.

essential, others with less influence and lesssignificant. As such, the connections analysiswill use non-parametric correlation models,the determining factor will be theaccommodation capacity in operation and

will be totally dependent on factors of touristarrivals and overnight stays total.

2. Analysis of tourist traffic indicators

Evolution of tourist arrivals inestablishments of touristic reception inBrasov County, in the period 2000-2009 is

presented in Table 1.

Tabelul 1Evoluia numrului total al sosirilor n perioada 2000 2009

ANII 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Nr.sosiri(mii)

326 328 290 325 422 448 484 557 582 426

Sursa: Anuarele statistice ale judeului Braov

Table 1The evolution of the total number of arrivals in the period 2000-2009

Years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Thoutourists

326 328 290 325 422 448 484 557 582 426

Source: Brasov County Statistical Yearbooks

Din tabelul 1, se poate observa, cevoluianumrului sosirilor pe parcursul perioadei 2000- 2009, prezint o evoluie oscilatorie cucreteri i scderi succesive. Valoarea minimde 290 de mii este nregistratn 2002, valorilemaxime fiind nregistrate spre sfritul

perioadei, 557 de mii n anul 2007 i respectiv582 de mii n anul 2008. n anul 2009 senregistreaz o scdere fa de anul 2008 anumrului de turiti sosii n judeul Braov cuaproximativ 156 de mii. Astfel, se poate spunec tendina general este de cretere anumrului sosirilor n structurile de primireturistic din judeul Braov n perioadaanalizat.

Evoluia numrului sosirilor n perioada2000 2009, , s-a caracterizat printr-o

alternan de creteri i descreteri relative(graficul 1), n jurul uni tren ascendent

From Table 1, we can see that theevolution of the number of arrivals duringthe period 2000-2009, shows an oscillatorytrend with successive increases anddecreases. The minimum is 290 thousand in2002, the maximum being recorded in the

late period, 557 thousand in 2007 and 582thousand in 2008. In 2009 recorded adecrease compared to 2008 the number oftourists arriving in the county,approximately 156 thousand. Thus, it can besaid that the general tendency is to increasetourist arrivals in the establishments of thecounty, during the period under review.

Evolution of the number of arrivalsduring the period 2000 - 2009, wascharacterized by an alternation of increases

and decreases relative (Chart 1) around anupward trend expressed by the linear


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exprimat prin funcia liniar:

ity += 37,2727,268 (1)

Indicatorul R2=0,63 indicoaproximare relativ acceptabila trendului

prin funcia liniar(1).

Graficul 1Evoluia numrului total alsosirilor n structurile de primire turisticdin

Braov n perioada 2000 2009.Valoarea minima sosirilor se nregistreaz

n anul 2002 comparativ cu anul 2000 i anumede 36 mii sosiri. n schimb, n urmtorii aseani se nregistreaz creteri continue, atingndn anul 2008 valoarea maximde 582 de mii desosiri. Declanarea crizei economice a avut unimpact semnificativ asupra numrului sosirilor,n anul 2009 numrul acestora scznd la 426mii turiti ceea ce corespund unei scderi de

17% n raport cu anul anterior.Avnd ns n vedere c valoareacoeficientului R=0,6635 este relativ sczutnanaliz a fost utilizat i un model polinomial(graficul 2) de forma:

67,325087,18495,22

2533,64073,02

34

++

+=

tt

tty

i

ii (2)

function:

ity += 37,2727,268 (1)

The R2=0, 63 indicator indicates a

relatively acceptable approximation of thetrend by linear function (1).

Chart 1Evolution of total touristarrivals in the establishments of Brasov

in 2000 - 2009.

The minimum value of arrivals recordedin 2002 compared to 2000 i.e. 36 thousandarrivals. Instead, the next six years isrecorded continuous growth, reaching in2008 the maximum amount of 582thousand arrivals. Economic crisis had asignificant impact on the number ofarrivals, in 2009 their number decreased to426 thousand tourists which correspond to a

decrease of 17% in the previous year.But in view that the coefficient R =

0.6635 is relatively low in the analysis wasalso used a polynomial model (Chart 2) ofthe form:

67,325087,18495,22

2533,64073,02

34

++

+=

tt

tty

i

ii

(2)


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Graficul 2Exprimarea evoluia numruluitotal al sosirilor n structurile de primire

turisticdin Braov n perioada 2000 2009prin trend polinomial

Dei R=0.9506 indico bunaproximare a

evoluiei sosirilor n perioada analizat,modelul (2) poate fi utilizat n condiii bunenumai pentru interpolri. Utilizarea acestuia

pentru extrapolarea evoluiei sosirilor trebuifcutcu rezerve.

Evoluia numrului total al nnoptrilor nperioada 2000 2009 exprimat n mii de zile-turiti este prezentatn tabelul 2.

Chart 2Expression of the evolution ofthe total tourist arrivals in the

establishments of Brasov in 2000 - 2009 bypolynomial trend

Although R = 0.9506 indicates a goodapproximation of the evolution of arrivals

during the period analyzed, the model (2)may be used only for interpolations in goodcondition. Its use should be made toextrapolate the evolution of arrivals withreservations.

Evolution of the total number ofovernight stays during the period 2000 -2009 expressed in thousands of day-touristsis presented in Table 2.

Tabelul 2Evoluia numrului total al nnoptrilor n perioada 2000 2009ANII 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Numrulnnoptrilor(mii turiti-zile)

891 885 779 831 961 1000 1055 1191 1228 934


Table 2Evolution of the total number of overnight stays during 2000 -2009ANII 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number ofovernights(tourists daysthousands)

891 885 779 831 961 1000 1055 1191 1228 934



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Evoluia numrul nnoptrilor este similarevoluiei numrului sosirilor n perioada 2000-2009 (graficele 2 i 3).

Valoarea minima a nnoptrilor senregistreaz n anul 2002 comparativ cu anul

2000 i anume de 112 mii nnoptri. n anii 2007i 2008 se nregistreazcele mai ridicate valori,iar n anul 2009 se nregistreaz o valoare annoptrilor cu 294 de mii zile turiti maisczutfade anul 2008.

Graficul 3Exprimarea evoluia numrului total alnnoptrilor n structurile de primire turisticdin judeulBraov n perioada 2000 2009 prin trend polinomial

Modelul dinamic al trendului numruluinnoptrilor n structurile de primire turisticdinRomnia exprimat printr-o funcie polinomialde gradul 4 este:

519,17266,66953,148989,0 234 ++= ttty iii

(3)3. Analiza capacitii de cazare n

funciune

Capacitatea de cazare n funciune,element esenial n derularea procesului decazare, este un indicator cu profunde implicaiin stabilirea eficienei activitii turistice.

Evoluia capacitii de cazare n

funciune judeul Braov, n perioada 2000 2008 este prezentat n tabelul 3. Studierea

The evolution of the number of overnightstays is similar to the evolution of number ofarrivals in the 2000-2009 periods (Charts 2and 3).

The minimum value of overnight stays

recorded in 2002 compared to 2000 i.e. 112thousand overnight stays. Between 2007 and2008 recorded the highest values, and in2009 a record amount of overnight touriststo 294 thousand days lower than in 2008.

Chart 3Expression of the evolution of the totalovernight stays in tourist accommodation

establishments in the Brasov Countybetween 2000-2009 by polynomial trend

The dynamic trend of number ofovernight stays in tourist reception ofRomania expressed by a polynomial

function of degree 4 is:

519,17266,66953,148989,0 234 ++= ttty iii (3)

3. Analysis of touristic accommodationcapacity in operation

Accommodation capacity in operation,an essential element in the development

process of accommodation, is an indicatorwith profound implications in determiningthe efficiency of tourism.

The evolution of accommodation


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evoluiei capacitii de cazare n funciune dinBraov presupune o reprezentare grafic adatelor statistice, precum i o analiz ndinamica acesteia.

capacity in operation Brasov County, in the2000 2008 period is presented in Table 3.The study of the evolution of capacity inaccommodation in operation in Brasovrequires a graphical representation of

statistical data and an analysis of itsdynamic.Tabelul 3Capacitatea de cazare n funciune n perioada 2000 - 2009

ANII 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Capacitatea de cazare(mii locuri zile)

3682 3670 3297 3650 3900 4219 4527 4705 49085036


Table 3The accommodation capacity in operation in theperiod 2000 -2009Years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009accommodationcapacity (thousands

places days)

36823670 3297 3650 3900 4219 4527 4705 4908 5036


Analiznd evoluia capacitii de cazare nfunciune n perioada 2008-2009 dei senregistreaz o cretere, aceast evoluie nu

poate fi puspe un impact slab al declanriicrizei economice ci practic pe inelasticitateaacesteia n raport cu scderea considerabilaveniturilor determinat de criz. Impactulcrizei economice asupra evoluiei capacitiide cazare n funciune s-a manifest nssemnificativ n anul 2010 i va continua i n

perioada urmtoare.

4. Analiza evoluiei indicilor deutilizare net a capacitii de cazare nfunciune

Evoluia indicilor de utilizare net acapacitii de cazare n funciune n perioadaanalizat, este prezentatn tabelul 4.

Analyzing the evolution ofaccommodation capacity in operation in2008-2009 although it is growing, this trendcannot be attributed to a weak impact ofeconomic crisis started but practically itsinelasticity considerable decrease comparedwith revenues driven by crisis. Impact ofeconomic crisis on the development ofaccommodation capacity in operation but tomanifest significantly in 2010 and willcontinue in the future.

4. Analysis of the evolution of indices ofnet using the touristic accommodationcapacity in operation

The evolution of indices of net usingthe touristic accommodation capacity inoperation during the analysis period is

presented in table 4.

Tabelul 4Indicii de utilizare neta capacitii n funciune (%)2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


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24,2 24,1 23,6 22,6 24,6 23,7 23,3 25,3 26,1 19,6

Table 4The indices of net using the touristic accommodation capacity in operation (%)2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

24,2 24,1 23,6 22,6 24,6 23,7 23,3 25,3 26,1 19,6

n structurile de primire turistic dinjudeul Braov indicele de utilizare net acapacitii de cazare turistic n funciune aavut n perioada analizat (2000 -2009) unnivel mediu de 23,7%, cel mai nalt nivel alacestuia nregistrndu-se n anul 2005.

5. Analiza corelaiei dintre capacitateade cazare n funciune i numrul

nnoptrilor turitilor sosii n Braov

Pentru determinarea corelaiei dintrenumrul nnoptrilor turitilor i capacitateade cazare n funciunea fost utilizatmetodaANOVA, rezultatele fiind prezentate ntabelul 4.

In the establishments of touristic receptionin Braov County index of net using capacityof touristic accommodation in operation hadin the analysis period (2000-2009) a mediumlevel of 23.7%, highest level of its recordingin 2005.

5. Analysis of correlation between theaccommodation capacity in operation andthe number of overnight stays of tourists

arrived in Braov

To determine the correlation between thenumber of overnight stays of tourists andaccommodation capacity in operation has

been used ANOVA method and results arepresented in Table 5.

Tabelul 5Corelaia dintre numrul nnoptrilor i capacitatea de cazare n funciunedin Braov, n perioada 2000-2009 (Correlation between the accommodation capacity inoperationandthenumberofovernightstaysoftouristsarrivedinBraovinthe20002009period)

SUMMARYOUTPUT

REGRESSIONSTATISTIC

MultipleR 0.9811

RSquare 0.9627

AdjustedRSquare 1.2857

StandardError 114.204

Observations 9

ANOVA

df SS MS F SignificanceF

Regression 1 2358017.12 262001. 180.79 0.000295

Residual 7 91298.874 13042.7

Total 8 2449316

Coefficients StandardError tStat Pvalue

Lower Upper

95% 95%

Intercept 626.858 258.299 2.4268 0.0456 16.0769 1237.63

Capacitateadecazare 3.5048 0.26066 13.445 2.953E06 2.8884 4.1212

Dup cum se poate observa (tabelul 4),

valoarea raportului de corelaie R=0,981, neconfirm existena unei direct foarte

As can be seen (Table 5), the value of

report of correlation R = 0.981, confirms the


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puternic ntre capacitatea de cazare nfunciune i numrul nnoptrilor n perioadaanalizat. n aceste condiii, i innd seamade faptul c Significance F=0.000295, multmai mic dect pragul de semnificaie ales

(0.05) rezultcmodelul liniar:

ii xy += 5048,385,626 (5)este un model valid.

Coeficientul de regresie b = 3,5048 nearat c, la o cretere a capacitii de cazaren funciune cu o mie locuri-zile, senregistreaz o cretere medie a numruluinnoptrilor cu aproximativ 3504 turiti-zile.

Valoarea coeficientului de determinaie R2

= 0.9627247 ne arat c 96,27% reprezintinfluena capacitii de cazare n funciuneasupra numrului nnoptrilor, restul de3,73% revenind altor factori ntmpltori,aleatori, neeseniali.

Analiznd informaiile privind cei doicoeficieni ai modelului (5) rezultc:

referitor la coeficientul Intercet626,85,deoarece valoarea rezultat prin aplicareatestului t este tcalculat= 2.4268, iar pragul desemnificaie P-value = 0.04562< 0,05

nseamncacesta este semnificativ statistic.valoarea coeficientului b= 3.5048semnific faptul ca odat cu cretereacapacitii de cazare cu o mie locuri-zile vacrete i numrul turitilor cu aproximativ3505 persoane. Deoarece tcalculat=13.445, iar

pragul de semnificaie P-value este 2.953E-06


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Evoluia numrul nnoptrilor este similarevoluiei numrului sosirilor n perioada2000-2009. n anii 2007 i 2008 senregistreaz cele mai ridicate valori, iar nanul 2009 se nregistreaz o valoare a

nnoptrilor cu 294 de mii zile turiti maisczutfade anul 2008.Capacitatea de cazare n funciune a

crescut continuu ajungnd la 4908 mii locurizile n anul 2008, respectiv 5036 mii locurizile n 2009. Impactul crizei economiceasupra evoluiei capacitii de cazare nfunciune s-a manifest ns semnificativ nanul 2010 i va continua i n perioadaurmtoare.

7. Bibliografie1. Anuarele statistice ale judeului

Braov2. www.insse.ro

establishments of the Braov County, in theperiod under review shows a general trend isthe growth in 2008 reaching a maximum of582 thousand arrivals. Economic crisis had asignificant impact on the number of arrivals,in 2009 their number decreased to 426thousand tourists which correspond to adecrease of 17% in the previous year.

The evolution of the number of overnightstays is similar to the evolution is the numberof arrivals during the period 2000-2009.Between 2007 and 2008 recorded the highestvalues, and in 2009 a record amount ofovernight tourists to 294 thousand days

tourists lower compared to 2008.Accommodation capacity in operation has

increased continuously reaching 4908thousands places days in 2008, i.e. 5036thousands places days in 2009. The impact ofthe economic crisis on the developmentcapacity of accommodation in operation wasmanifested but significantly in 2010 and willcontinue in the following period.

7. Bibliography1. Brasov County Statistical Yearbooks2. www.insse.ro

analiza statisticĂ a circulaŢiei turistice

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