qeTevan marSava

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis

statistika

(leqciebis kursi)

2

sarCevi leqcia 1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis Teoriuli

safuZvlebi 3

leqcia 2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis

ganviTarebis istoria da misi Tanamedrove organizacia 16

leqcia 3. klasifikaciebi da dajgufebani saerTaSoriso

statistikaSi 36

leqcia 4. erovnul angariSTa sistema saerTaSoriso

statistikaSi 50

leqcia 5. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa 72

leqcia 6. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika 94

leqcia 7. sagadasaxdelo balansi 116

leqcia 8 saerTaSoriso safinanso da sabanko statistika 138

leqcia 9. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika 168

leqcia 10. Sromis saerTaSoriso statistika 185

leqcia 11. cxovrebis donis saerTaSoriso statistika 206

leqcia 12. statistikuri meTodebi saerTaSoriso modelirebasa

da prognozirebaSi 241

leqcia 1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis Teoriuli

safuZvlebi

3

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis dargi, misi Seswvlis obieqti da sagani

2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi Tanamedrove etapze

3. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri mecnierebis sxva dargebTan

4. saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis meTodologia 5. saerTaSoriso statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri

statistikis dargi, misi Seswavlis obieqti da sagani

Tanamedrove etapze statistikuri mecniereba warmoadgens sxvadasxva

qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi mimdinare socialur-politikuri

movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxaris Semswavlel

urTirTdakavSirebul disciplinebis kompleqss. es kompleqsi moicavs:

maTematikur statistikas. is Seiswavlis sxvadasxva movlenebisa da

procesebis analizisa da prognozirebis maTematikur-statistikur

meTodebs. es meTodebi farTod gamoiyeneba yoveli qveynis

socialur-ekonomikuri situaciis dasaxasiaTeblad.

statistikis zogad Teorias. misi kvlevis sagania Sesaswavli

movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxaris amsaxveli

informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis, damuSavebisa da analizis

mecnierulad dasabuTebuli meTodologiis SemuSaveba.

socialur-ekonomikur statistikas (makroekonomikuri statistika).

is ikvlevs ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, msvlelobisa da

Sedegebis amsaxvel socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobriv

mxares.

dargobriv statistikebs. TiToeuli maTgani Seiswavlis ekonomikis

sxvadasxva dargSi mimdinare movlenebisa da procesebis

raodenobriv mxares. ganasxvaveben mrewvelobis, soflis meurneobis,

mSeneblobis da sxva dargebis statistikebs. dargobrivi statistika

iyenebs maTematikuri statistikis, statistikis zogadi Teoriisa da

makroekonomikuri statistikis mier SemuSavebul erTian

4

meTodologiur principebs. amavdroulad dargobrivi maCvenebelTa

sistema aigeba Sesaswavli dargis sfecifikis gaTvliswinebiT.

erovnul angariSTa sistemas (eas), romelic asaxavs ekonomikuri

saqmianobis winamZRvrebs, msvlelobasa da Sedegebs, statistikuri

cxrilebis formiT warmodgenil, urTierTdakavSirebul

ganzogadebul ekonomikur maCvenebelTa sistemis meSveobiT.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikas statistikur mecnierebaTa

sistemaSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia. is ekonomikuri statistikis

dargia da iTvleba Tanamedrove ekonomikuri ganaTlebis mniSvnelovan

Semadgenelad. am Tezisis safuZvlianobas ganapirobebs Semdegi

garemoeba:

1. ekonomikuri saqmianobis aqtivizacia saxalxo meurneobis

yvela doneze;

2. savaWro-ekonomikuri, savaluto-finansuri da samecniero teqnikuri,

aseve sazRvargareTis yveynebTan sagareo-ekonomikuri kavSirebis

iseTi axali formebis ganviTareba rogoricaa pirdapiri sameurneo

kavSirebi, erToblivi sawarmoebi, Tavisufali ekonomikuri zonebi,

sasazRvro da sanapiro vaWroba.

kvlevis obieqtze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben saerTaSoriso

urTierTobis statistikis or cnebas:

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika viwro gagebiT, romelic

Seiswavlis sxvadsxva qveynebsa da qveynebis gaerTianebebs Soris

saerTaSoriso doneze mimdinare socialur-ekonomikur movlenebsa

da procesebs. qveynebis gaerTianebebi _ evropis qveynebis,

ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da gnviTarebis organizacia,

arabeTis qveynebis liga, nafTobis eqsportiori qveynebis

organizacia da sxva.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika farTo gagebiT ikvlevs

msoflio meurneobas mTlianad, e.i. ara mxolod qveynebsa da maT

gaerTianebebs Soris mimdinare socialur-ekonomikur movlenebsa

da procesebs aramed calkeul qvenebSi mimdinareebs.

5

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kvlevis obieqtia Sesaswavli

niSnis mqone ekonomikuri erTeulebis erToblioba _ saerTaSoriso

TanamSromlobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi, qveynebis monawileoba Sromis

saerTaSoriso ganawilebaSi, maTi CarTulobis done msoflio sameureneo

kavSirebSi, sagareo-ekonomikuri kavSirebis efeqtianoba, kerZod eqsport-

iportis operaciebis.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis sagans warmoadgens msoflio

ekonomikaSi mimdinare social-ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobrivi

Seswvla. amasTan dakavSirebiT saerTSoriso urTierTobis statistika

mowodebulia gamoikvlios ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebi,

msvleloba da Sedegebi.

aRricxvis saerTaSoriso praqtikis Sesabamisad ekonomikuri

saqmianoba moicavs, mTliand sazogadoebisa da misi calkeuli wevrebis

moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad, materialuri keTildReobisa da

momsaxurebis Sesaqmnelad adamianis mizanmimarTul saqmianobas. aq

igulisxmeba saqmianobis yvela saxeoba, garda kriminaluris, hobis da

ufaso (aunazRaurebadi) Sinamomsaxurebisa.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis wanamZRvria erovnuli simdidre. is moicavs:

1. ZiriTad da sabrunav fondebs;

2. samomxmareblo daniSnulebis maragebs;

3. miwas da bunebriv resursebs;

4. oqros da sazRvargareTul valutas;

5. aramaterialur aqtivebs;

erovnul simdidreSi ar Sedis klimati, ekonomikuri situacia,

adamianiseuli resursebi, qveynis politikuri wyoba.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegia adamianis SromiT Seqmnili materialuri

keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis erToblioba. am Sedegebis

mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia mTliani damatebuli Rirebuleba, romelic

6

gaiangariSeba, rogorc sxvaoba produqciis mTlian gamoSvebasa da

Sualedur moxmarebas Soris.

kvlevis konkretuli sagnis SerCeva damokidebulia kvlevis miznebsa da

amocanebze. kvlevis sagani SeiZleba iyos erovnuli simdidris

maCveneblebi; mSp dinamikisa da struqturis maCveneblebi; cxovrebis

donis maCveneblebi da sxv.

kvlevis sagnisa da obieqtis sworad SerCeva mniSvnelovanad ganapirobebs

miRebuli Sedegebis sizustes.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi

Tanamedrove etapze

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis prioritetuli, centraluri

amocanaa socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis dinamikisa da struqturis

Seswavla da maTi urTierTkavSiris daxasiaTeba. M

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis mier Tanamedrove etapze

gadasawyvet ZiriTad amocanebs ganekuTvneba:

1. calkeuli qveynebis ganviTarebis dinamikisa da donis maxasiaTebeli

obieqturi ganzogadebuli maCveneblebis SemuSaveba da gaangariSeba;

2. moqmedi statistikuri klasifikatorebis srulyofa da axlebis

ageba;

3. saerTaSoriso standartebTan erovnuli statistikebis adaptaciis

programis realizacia;

4. makroekonomikuri statistikisa da aRricxvis saerTaSoriso

sistemis ganviTarebis gamocdilebis gavrceleba;

5. statistikuri informaciis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofa

saerTaSoriso doneze;

6. statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelyofa.

calkeuli qveynis ganviTarebis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebis

7

SemuSavebis amocana iTvaliswinebs qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

Semdeg maCveneblebs:

mTliani Sida produqti;

mTliani erovnuli Semosavali;

wminda erovnuli Semosavali;

moqalaqis piradi Semosavali;

danazogebi piradi Semosavlidan %-Si;

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvis saxelmwifo danaxarjebi

mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebiT %-Si;

realuri Semosavli erT sul mosaxleze;

mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofadoba sacxovrebliTa da xangrZlivi

moxmarebis sagnebiT;

sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi

amocanaa statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelyofa.

statistikuri informaciis arautyuaroba aixsneba imiT, rom gamoiyeneba

informaciis arasrulyofili wyaroebi da maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis

gamartivebuli xerxebi.

statistikuri monacemebis utyuarobis uzrunvelsayofad saWiroa:

erovnul angariSTa sistemis erTi maCvneblebis sxva maCveneblebTan

urTierTSekavSirebis gamoyeneba;

erTi da igive maCveneblebis mravalvariantuli gaangariSebis

gamoyeneba.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikaSi dadgenilia informaciis

utyuarobis 4 klasi:

A klasi (cdomileba 3%- mde);

B klasi (cdomileba 3%-dan 10%-mde);

C klasi (cdomileba 10%-dan 20%-mde);

D klasi (cdomileba 20%-is zemoT);

8

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis zemoT CamoTvlili amocanebi

araris amomwuravi da mudmivi. sazogadoebis ganviTarebis sxvadasxva

etapze saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis winaSe warmoiSoba axali

konkretuli amocanebi.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri mecnierebis

sxva dargebTan

saerTaSoriso statistika mWidroda dakvSirebuli rig mecnierul

disciplinasTan. pirvel rigSi aRsaniSnavia misi kavSiri Tanamedrove

ekonomikur TeoriasTan, romelic SeimuSavebs ganmartebebs da

mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri kategoriebisa da maCveneblebis gaangariSebis

meTodologias, Seiswavlis sxvadasxva qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

tendenciebsa da kanonzomierebebs. saerTaSoriso statistika, ekonomikuri

maCveneblebis praqtikuli gaangariSebebis gansaxorcieleblad, iyenebs

ekonomikiuri Teoriis SemuSavebebs. Tavis mxriv, statistika amdidrebs

ekonomikur Teorias konkretuli ekonomikuri informaciiT da am

informaciis sfuZvelze gakeTebuli daskvnebiT. aseTi urTierTkavSiri da

urTierTdamokidebuleba iZleva ekonomikuri Teoriisa da statistikis

ganviTarebis SesaZleblobas.

saerTaSoriso statistika, Tavis praqtikul saqmianobaSi iyenebs

statistikis zogadi Teoriisa da maTematikuri statistikis mier

SemuSavebuli informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis, damuSavebisa da

analizis meTodebs. rac iZleva miRebuli informaciis sistematizirebis,

misi xarisxisa da saimedoobis Semowmebis, socialur-ekonomikuri

movlenebis ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da kanonzomierebis dadgenis,

calkeuli qveynebis ekonomikuri saqminobis ganviTarebis prognozirebis

saSualebas. statistikis zogadi Teoria da maTematikuri statistika,

saerTaSoriso statistikis mier miRebuli Sedegebis gamoyenebiT,

sruloyofs ekonomikuri informaciis mopovebis, kontrolis,

damuSavebisa da analizis meTodologias.

9

saerTaSoriso statistika mWidro kavSirSia sabuRaltro aRricxvasTan.

is ekonomikuri operaciebis asaxvisas farTod iyenebs ormagi Caweris

buRaltrul meTods, kerZod eas-is angariSebis agebis dros. sawarmos

doneze erTgvarovani ekonomikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSebis

meTodologiuri erTianoba, romelsac axorcielebs buRaltruli

aRricxva, xolo calkeuli qveynebisa da qveynebis gaerTianebebis doneze

_ saerTaSoriso statistika iZleva ekonomikuri saqminobis yvela doneze

(sawarmos, ekonomikis dargisa da seqtoris, ekonomikuri regionebis,

calkeuli qveynebisa da qveynebis gaerTianebebis) erTgvarovani

socialur-ekonomikuri maCveneblebis Sesadarisobisa da urTierT

SekavSirebis SesaZleblobas.

saerTaSoriso statistika, erovnuli ekonomikis calkeuli dargebis

ekonomikuri saqmianobis Semswavleli rigi disciplinis safuZvelia. is

SeimuSavebs ekonomikis sxvadsxva dargebis maCvenebelTa sistemis agebis

ZiriTad meTodologiur principebs da rekomendacias uwevs maT

gamoyenebas sxvadasxva qveynis statistikur praqtikaSi.

aRsaniSnavia saerTaSoriso statistikis kavSiri progrmirebasa da

eleqtronuli teqnikis gamoyenebasTan. es kavSiri aixsneba Semdegi

ZiriTdi garemoebebiT:

saerTaSoriso statistikas saqme aqvs didi moculobis

informciasTan, romlis mopoveba, damuSveba da anlizi SeuZlebelia

eleqtronuli teqnikis gmoyenebis gareSe;

gaeros, saerTSoriso organizaciebis, qveynebis gaerTianebebisa da

calkeuli qveynebis statistikuri organoebis gamaerTianebeli

ekonomikuri informaciis droulad miReba da damuSaveba

SeuZlebelia msoflio eleqtronuli qselis Seqmnis gareSe.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis meTodologia

Cven avRniSneT saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis kavSiri sxva

mecnierebebTan. es kavSiri uwinaresad vlindeba imaSi, rom saerTaSoriso

statistika iyenebs rigi sxva disciplinis mier SemuSavebul meTodebs.

10

socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis statistikuri Seswavlis

fuZemdebluri meTodia dialeqtikuri meTodi. romlis Sesatyvisad

saerTaSoriso statistika ikvlevs ekonomikuri movlenebis raodenobriv

mxares maT Tvisobriv mxaresTan ganuyrel kavSirSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneba

raodenobriobis TvisesbriobaSi gadasvlis kanoni, dapirispirebaTa

erTianobisa da brZolis kanoni, uaryofis uaryofis kanoni da sxva.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistika utyuari socialur-ekonomikuri

informaciis misaRebad iyenebs, statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier

SemuSavebul, statistikuri dakvirvebis sxvadasxva meTods (mimdinare

dakvirveba, gamokiTxvebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba da a.S.).

miRebuli socialur-ekonomikuri monacemebis statistikuri analizi,

agreTve xorcieldeba statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier SemuSavebuli

meTodebis erTobliobis safuZvelze. maT Soris umniSvnelovanes

miekuTvneba:

1. saSualoebis meTodi iZleva gamosakvlevi erTobliobis yvela

erTeulisaTvis Sesaswavli niSnis saSualo sididis ganszRvris

saSualebas (sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba, erTi muSakis

saSualo realuri da nominaluri xelfasi, mTliani Sida

produqtis warmoeba erT sul mosaxleze da a.S.;

2. variaciis maCveneblebi axasiaTeben Sesaswavli niSnis mniSvnelobis

gadaxras maTi saSualo sididisgan. variaciis maCveneblebi iZleva

erTobliobis yvela erTeulis, Sesaswavl niSanTan mimarTebiT,

erTgvaronobis doneze daskvnis gamotanis SesaZleblobas.

3. statistikuri dajgufebis meTodi iZleva Sesawavli erTobliobis

yvela erTeulis, erTi an ramodenime niSnis safuZvelze,

erTgvarovan jgufebSi gaerTianebis SesaZleblobas;

4. dinamikuri mwkrivebis meTodi, romlis arsi mdgomareobs

socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis droSi ganviTarebis amsaxveli

samomento da intervaluri maCveneblebis erTobliobis agebaSi;

5. saindeqso meTodi romelic, gansakuTrebuli SefardebiTi

sidideebis (indeqsebis) meSveobiT iZleva socialur-ekonomikuri

11

movlenebis dinamikis droSi Seswavlis an erTgvarovani movlenebis

sivrceSi Sepirispirebis saSualebas;

6. socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebis urTierTkavSiris Seswavlis

statistikuri meTodebi, maT miekuTvneba: urTierTdakavSirebuli

ekonomikuri maCveneblebis paralelur mwkrivTa meTodi; kavSiris

simWidrovis araparametruli Sefasebis gaangariSebis meTodi

(asociaciis koeficienti, kontingenciis koeficienti, pirsonis

urTierT SeuRlebis koeficienti, spirmanis rangebis korelaciis

koeficienti, fexneris koeficienti da sxva); korelaciur-

regresiuli analizi, romelic erTi mxriv, wyviladi

koeficientebisa da mrvlobiTi korelaciis sfuZvelze iZleva

Sesawvli movlenebis urTierTkavSiris simWidrovis donis Sefsebis

SesaZleblobas, xolo meore mxriv, Sesaswavli faqtorebis

saSedego niSanze gavlenis raodenobrivi Sefasebis saSualebas

korelaciur-regresiuli gantolebebis parametrebisa da

elstikurobis Sesabamisi koeficientebis safuZvelze.

7. SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis meTodi. es meTodi gansakuTrebul

mniSvnelobas iZens ekonomikuri maCveneblebis mixedviT sruli

perioduli angariSgebis sistemis ar arsebobis pirobebSi.

SerCeviTi meTodis sworad gamoyeneba, sizustis TvalsazrisiT,

iZleva Sesaswavli maCveneblebis savsebiT damakmayofilebeli

Sefasebis SesaZleblobas. misi gamoyenebis Sedegad saWiro

informaciis misaRebad miiRweva SromiTi, materialuri da

finansuri danaxarjebis ekonomia. garda amisa mniSvnelovnad

mcirdeba am informaaciis mopovebaze, damuSavebsa da analize

daxarjuli dro.

8. klasteruli analizi, romelic iZleva saSualebas ganxorcieldes

Sesaswavli erTobliobis mravalganzomilebiani dajgufeba

ramdenime niSanTan mimarTebiT. Sedegad erToblioba iyofa

erTgvarovan klasterebad. E

9. ekonomikuri saqminobis gamokvlevisas saerTaSoriso urTierTobis

statistika farTod iyenebs sabalanso meTods. is gamoiyeneba

ramdenime variantSi:

12

balansi, rogorc mTelisa da misi calkeuli komponentebis toloba

(magliTad, dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikis

dargebis mixedviT;

balansi, rogorc resursebisa da danaxarjebis toloba (magaliTad,

saTbob-energetikuli resursebis da maTi gamoyenebis balansi);

balansi, rogorc Sesaswavl erTobliobSi gansazRvruli periodis

ganmavlobaSi mimdinare cvlilebebis asaxvis saSualeba. Aam

SemTxvevaSi sabalanso cxrili moicavs monacemebs, romlebic

axsiaTebs periodis dasawyisisTvis arsebuls, periodSi Sevsebas,

periodSi gasvlas da periodis bolos arsebuls.

sabalanso meTodi aris fuZemdebluri eas-is agebisas. erovnuli

ekonomikis angariSebis yvela saSedego maCvenebeli (mSp sabazro

fasebSi; mTliani mogeba/mTliani Sereuli Semosavali; mTliani

erovnuli Semosvali; mTliani gankargviTi erovnuli Semosavali da

sxva) gaiangariSeba sabalanso meTodiT, rogorc sxvaoba resursebis

jamsa da gamoyenebis sxva muxlebs Soris.

statistikis zogadi Teoriis mier SemuSavebul instrumentebs _

statistikur cxrilebs, naxazebs, grafikebs, diagramebs saerTaSoriso

urTierTobis statistika iyenebs statistikuri informaciis TvalsaCino

da kompaqturad warmosadgenad.

statistikuri informaciis mopovebis, damuSavebisa da analizis

CamoTvlili meTodebi saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikas aZlevs

qveynis, qveynebis gaerTianebisa da msoflio doneze ekonomikuri

saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, msvlelobisa da Sedegebis amsaxveli urTierT

dakvSirebuli ekonomikur-statistikuri maCveneblebis agebis saSualebas.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis sagani da obieqti gansazRvrvs

ekonomikur-statistikur maCvenebelTa sistemis agebis principebs, mis

struqturas da Sedgenilobas.

13

ekonomikur-statistikuri maCvenebeli asaxavs socialur-ekonomikuri

procesebis raodenobriv mxares maT Tvisebriv mxaresTan ganuyrel

kavSirSi. Eekonomikuri saqmianoba Seicavs urTierTdamokidebulebaSi da

urTierTkavSirSi myof sxvadasxva operciebis did raodenobas. amitom

ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZrvrebis, msvlelobisa da Sedegebis

amsaxveli maCvenebelTa sistema aseve unda moicavdes urTierT

dakavSirebul maCveneblebs, TiToeuli maTgani asaxvs gansazRvruli

socialur-ekonomikuri movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobriv mxares.

ekonomikuri sqmianobis winamZrvrebia miwa da bunebrivi resursebi,

romelic warmoadgens nebismieri qveynis cxovelqmediTobis materialur

safuZvels; mosaxleoba SromiTi resursebis formiT (Sromisunariani

mosaxleoba); dagrovili materialuri keTildReoba, romelic wina

periodebis Sromis Sedegia; aramateriluri aqtivebi da finansuri

resursebi.

aRniSnulis Sesatyvisad ekonomikuri saqminobis maxasiaTebelma

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemam unda

micvas:

miwis da bunebrivi resursebis maCveneblebi (farTobi, klimaturi

pirobebi, sasargeblo wiayiseulis maragebi, tyis resursebi, wylisa

da hidroenergo resursebis maragebi, wylebis, zRvebisa da

okeanebis simdidre; qveynis sanapiro Selfi, flora da fauna);

garemos mdgomareobis maCveneblebi (miwis, wylis, haeris; myari,

Txevadi, da airsaxovani narCenebis warmoqmnis, gamonabolqebis

SemCnevis da ganadgurebis; garemos dacvis RonisZiebebisa da maTi

efeqianobis);

qveynis SromiTi potencialis maCveneblebi (qveynis mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba, Semadgenloba da dinamika, Sromisunarini mosaxleobis,

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis, dasaqmebulebis, umuSerebis);

ZiriTadi kapitalis arsebobis, struqturis, mdgomareobis da

moZraobis maCveneblebi;

sabrunavi kapitalis, rezervebis da sxvadsxva daniSnulebis

maragebis statistikis maCveneblebi;

mosaxleobis dagrovili qonebis maCveneblebi.

14

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi

centraluri adgili ukavia ekonomikuri saqminobis msvlelobisa da

Sedegebis amsxvel maCveneblebs. is moicavs naturalur, pirobiT-

naturalur da RirebulebiT maCveneblebs.

naturaluri maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba konkretuli produqtisa da

momsaxurebis warmoebis da moxmarebis dasaxasiaTeblad. aRsaniSnvia, rom

bevr SemTxvevaSi sxvadsxva qveyanaSi erTgvarovani produqtis gasazomad

gamoiyeneba zomis gansxvavebuli erTeulebi.

pirobiT-naturaluri maCveneblebi iZleva erTgvarovani maCveneblebis

gaაngariSebis bazis gafarToebis saSualebas. Tumca isini iSviaTad

gamoiyeneba. magaliTisaTvis SeiZleba moviyvanoT saTbob-enrgetikuli

resursebi, am resursebis yvela saxeoba gadaiangariSeba pirobiT

sawvavSi, romlis TbogamomuSaveba Seadgens 7200kkal/kg an gansazRvruli

koeficientebiT gadaiangariSeba nafTobSi. es iZleva qveyanaSi saTbob-

enrgetikuli resursebis warmoebisa da gamoyenebis Sefasebis da maTi

naturalur-nivTobrivi struqturis Seswavlis saSualebas.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sisitemaSi

mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia RirebulebiT (fulad) maCveneblebs,

romelTa Rirseba mdgomareobs imaSi, rom isini iZlevian ganzogadebuli,

dajamebuli socialur-ekonomikuri maCveneblebis miRebis saSualebas

ekonomikuri saqmianobis nebismier doneze (ekonomikuri erTeulebis;

erovnuli ekonomikis dargebisa da seqtorebis; ekonomikuri regionebis

da mTliand qveynis). RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis ZiriTadi naklovanebaa

maTi Zlieri damokidebuleba inflaciis tempebze mocemul qveyanaSi. Ees

iwvevs RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis dinamikuri mwkrivebis Sesadaris

fasebSi gadaangariSebis aucileblobas, rac TavisTavad rTul da

Sromatevad amocanas warmoadgens. garda amisa erTgvarovani

RirebulebiTi maCveneblebis Sesadarisoba saerTaSoriso doneze aseve

moiTxovs maT gadaangariSebas Sesdaris valutaSi, rac yovelTvis

atarebs miaxlobiT xasiaTs.

15

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis ekonomikuri saqmianobis

Sedegebisa da ekonomikuri potencialis maCvenebelTa bazaze igeba

ekonomikuri efeqtianobis maCvenebelTa qvesistema. ekonomikuri

efeqtianobis maCveneblebi warmoadgenen saqmianobis Sedegebisa da

resursebis Tanafardobas an am Sedegebis miRwevasTan dakavSirebuli

danaxarjebis Tanafardobas.

ekonomikuri efeqtianobis maCvenebelTa qvesistema moicavs SromiTi

potencialis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebs (dasaqmeba, umuSeroba,

samuSao drois gamoyeneba, Sromisa da warmoebis faqtorebis

mwarmoebluroba da a.S.); warsuli (ganivTebuli) Sromis gamoyenebis

danaxarjTa efeqtanobis maCveneblebs (fondtevadoba da fondukugeba,

masalatevadoba da masalaukugeba, materialuri resursebis xvedriTi

xarjebis maCveneblebi da sxv.); kapitaldabandebebis efeqtianobis

maCveneblebi (kapitaltevadoba, kapitalukugeba, kapitaldabandebebis

amogebis vada da sxv.).

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemis

mniSvnelovani Semadgenelia msoflio ekonomikis sxvadsxva dargebis

ekonomikuri saqmianobis winamZRvrebis, mimdinareobisa da Sedegebis

amsaxveli qvesistemebi. Ees qvesistemebi moicavs samuSao Zalis, ZiriTadi

da sabrunavi kapitalis arsebobis, struqturis da moZraobis naturalur

da RirebulebiT maCveneblebs da aseve mrewvelobis, s/m da mSeneblobis

mniSvnelovani produqciis warmoebis naturalur da RirebulebiT

maCveneblebs.

sabazro ekonomikis ganviTarebis pirobebSi pirvelxarisxovan

mniSvnelobas iZens ekonomikuri saqmianobis finansuri maCveneblebi. maT

dasaxasiaTeblad saerTaSoriso statistika SeimuSavebs saxelmwifo

finansebis, gadasaxadebisa da fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis

maCvenebelTa qvesistemas.

inflaciis statistikuri SeswavlisaTvis gamoiyeneba fasebis da

faswarmoqmnis maCvenebelTa sistema. Aam SemTxvevaSi Seiswavleba ara

16

mxolod fasebi, aramed xorcieldeba RirebulebiTi (fuladi)

maCveneblebis Sesadaris fasebSi gadafasebis meTodebis SemuSavebac.

msoflio ekonomikis ganviTarebis Tanamedrove etapi xasiaTdeba

sxvadasxva qveynebis ekonomikuri integraciisa da globalizaciis

procesis daCqarebiT. am procesis asaxva xdeba sagareoekonomikuri

kavSirebis maCvenebelTa qvesistemis meSveobiT. is moicavs saqonliT da

momsaxurebiT sagareo vaWrobis maCveneblebs, da agreTve qveynis

sagadasaxdelo balansis maCveneblebs.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema sruldeba

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis, Sromis pirobebisa da dasvenebis

maCvenebelTa qvesistemiT. maTgan yvelaze mniSvnelovania:

mosaxleobis demografiuli maCveneblebi, nominaluri da realuri

xelfasi; sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculoba, struqtura da

dinamika;

produqciis ZiriTadi saxeobebis moxmareba erT sul mosaxleze;

mosaxleobis sacxovrebliT, komunaluri momsaxurebiTa da

xangrZlivi moxmarebis sayofacxovrebo teqnikiT

uzrunvelyofadoba;

jandacvis, ganaTlebis, kulturisa da mecnierebis statistikis

maCveneblebi; kriminluri statistikis maCveneblebi. am qvesistemaSi

Sedis Sromis pirobis maCveneblebi (samuSao drois xangrZlivoba,

profesiuli daavdebebi, sawarmoo travmatizmi, SromiTi

konfliqtebi, axal adgilze ekologiuri mdgomareoba _ mavne

gamosxiveba, damtverianeba, xmaurianoba da sxv.) da dasvenebis

pirobebi (Svebulebis xangrZlivoba, Tavisufali dro, Sida da

saerTaSoriso turizmi da sxv.).

leqcia 2. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebis

istoria da misi Tanamedrove organizacia

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis istoriuli warmoSoba

17

2. saerTaSoriso statistikuri instituti 3. saerTaSoriso statistikiuri kongresebi da maTi roli

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi 4. saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da maTi statistikuri samsaxurebi 5. saerTaSoriso statistikis Tanamedrove organizacia 6. evrokavSiris statistikuri samsaxuri 7. oficialuri da araoficialuri statistikuri samsaxurebi

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi, centralizebuli da decentralizebuli statistikuri formebi.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis istoriuli warmoSoba

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistika, rogorc mecnierebis dargi

warmoiSva Zvel droSi calkeuli saxelmwifoebis praqtikuli

saWiroebidan gamomdinare.

Tavdapirvelad es gaxldaT Setevis ganxorcielebamde mowinaaRmdegis

samxedro simZlavris Sefasebisa da kontribuciis1 dasaweseblad

saxelmwifos simdidris gansazRvris aucilebloba.

Semdgom, vaWrobis ganviTarebasTan erTad, gaCnda moTxovna sxva

informacize, e.i. saxelmwifos aRweris. magram msgavs monacemebs hqonda

wminda aRwerilobiTi statistikis saxe, cifrobrivi informaciis

gamoyenebis gareSe. erT-erTi amdagvari cnobili samuSao ekuTvnis

aristoteles, romelmac aRwera Tavisi drois 157 qalaqi da

saxelmwifoebi.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis, rogorc damoukidebeli

dargis formireba moxda XIX saukunis Sua xanebSi. misi warmoSoba da

ganviTareba mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli or skolasTan: germanul

aRwerilobiT skolasTan da politikuri ariTmetikosebis inglisur

skolasTan.

germanuli aRwerilobiTi statistikis, an saxelmwifomcodneobis

warmomadgenli iyo germaneli mecnieri g. axenvali, romelmac 1749w.

1 kontribucia laTinuri sityvaa da niSnavs iZulebiT gadasaxdels, an qonebis amoRebas

omSi damarcxebuli saxelmwifosagan.

18

gamosca wigni saxemwifomcodneobaze. aRwerilobiTi statistikis

ZiriTadi Tavisebureba mdgomarebda imasSi, rom xdeboda aRwerilobiT-

informaciuli masalis mopoveba, romelic SemdgomSi TiTqmis ar

analizdeboda. germanulma aRwerilobiTma skolam iarseba 150 welze

meti, Tumca am mecnierebis sagani da meTodi ar iyo gansazRvruli.

politikuri ariTmetikosebis inglisuri skola gaCnda 100 wliT adre

vidre germanuli skola. misi warmomadgeneli iyo u. peti. is

sazogadoebriv movlenebs ganixilavda raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT,

gamoxatavda maT ricxvebiT, woniT, zomiT. man 1683w. gamosca wigni

„politikuri ariTmetika“, romelSic motanili iyo monacemebi inglisis

erovnul Semosavalze, monacemebi safrangeTisa da holandiis

mosaxleobaze.

politikuri ariTmetikosebis skolam safuZveli Cauyara masobrivi

monacemebis raodenobriv Seswavlas. am skolis warmomadgenlebi

cdilobdnen cifrebiT daexasiaTebinaT sazogadoebis mdgomareoba da

ganviTareba, faqtebis ganzogadebisa da analizis safuZvelze eCvenebinaT

sazogadoebrivi movlenebis ganviTarebis kanonzomierebebi.

Semdgomi ganviTareba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikam miiRo

iseTi misi formebis meSveobiT, rogoricaa saerTaSoriso statistikuri

instituti, saerTaSoriso kongresebi, erTa ligis organoebi.

saerTaSoriso statistikuri instituti

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli

roli ekuTvnis saerTaSoriso statistikur instituts (ssi).

ssi _ sazogadoebrivi organizacia Seiqmna 1885w. Stab-bina imyofeba

haagaSi. es wminda samecniero organizaciaa, romelic aerTianebs

msoflios sxvadasxva qveynis wamyvan mecnierebs statistikis dargSi.

ssi samecniero saqmianoba mimarTulia Semdeg problemebze:

xalxTmosaxleoba;

19

produqciis xarisxis statistikuri meTodebi;

samuSao Zalis statistika;

codnis sxvadasxva dargSi maTematikuri statistikis gamoyeneba.

ssi-is sesiebi tardeba regularulad yovel or wels, sadac xdeba

samecniero da praqtikuli statistikis rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba.

institutis SemuSavebebi ganixileba saerTaSoriso statistikuri

organizaciebis mier da atareben sarekomendacio xasiaTs.

1990 wlidan ssi atarebs specialur konferenciebs saerTaSoriso

statistikis sxvadsxva problemebze (misi saimedobis, droulobis

sizustis). bolo wlebSi ssi axorcielebs statistikuri samsaxuris

xelmZRvanelebisaTvis seminarebis organizebas. pirveli aseTi seminari

Catarda 1966wels evropeli statistikosebisaTvis. masze ganixileboda

niderlandebis statistikis biuros gamocdileba.

Tanamedrove etapze ssi-is saqmianoba mimarTulia Semdeg problemebze:

statistikuri ganaTleba (amisaTvis ssi-s gaaCnia saswavlo centrebi

kalkutaSi, bobeiSi, beiruTSi, CineTSi, sadac xdeba aziisa da

afrikis qveynebis statistikosebis gadamzadeba.

sxvadasxva dargSi gamoyenebiTi statistikis gamoyeneba.

ssi regularulad gamoscems „saerTaSoriso statistikis mimoxilvas“,

„msoflios didi qalaqebis weliwdleuls“.

saerTaSoriso statistikiuri kongresebi da maTi roli

saerTaSoriso statistikis ganviTarebaSi

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis (ssk) iniciatori iyo a. ketle.

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis mowveva xdeboda 23 wlis

ganmavlobaSi. I-li kongresi Sedga 1853w briuselSi, II- 1855w parizSi, III-

1863w. venaSi, IV- 1860w. londonSi, V- 1863w. berlinSi, VI-1867w.

florenciaSi, VII-1869w. haagaSi, VIII-1872w. peterburgSi da IX-1876w.

budapeStSi.

20

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis programebSi figurirebda

statistikis sxvadasxva sakiTxebi: socialuri statistika; demografiuli

statistika. calkeul kongresebze ganixileboda meTodologiuri

sakiTxebi. magaliTad, peterburgSi VIII kongrersze ganixileboda

cxriluri da grafikuli meTodebis roli da mniSvneloba. aRwerebis

Catarebis da Sedegebis damuSavebis mecnieruli dasabuTeba iyo

mocemuli jer briuselSi I kongrersze, Semdeg peterburgSi VIII

kongrersze.

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresebis muSaobis Sedegad moxda

mecnieruli da praqtikuli statistikis Serwyma, gaizarda gamocemis

ricxvi, gaumjobesda statistikuri dawesebulebebis mowyoba, daiwyo

statistikuri informaciis gacvla regularul safuZvelze.

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da maTi statistikuri samsaxurebi

saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli

roli ekuTvnis saerTaSoriso organizaciebs da maT statistikur

samsaxurebs. swored maTi saqminobis intensiurobiT SesaZlebeli gaxda

saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis, rigi mniSvnelovani

mimarTulebiT, erovnuli statistikebis miRwevebisagan CamorCenis

likvidireba. A

aRsaniSnavi, iseTi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis statistikuri

samsaxurebis roli, rogoricaa gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia

(gaero, UN), saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi (IMF), Sromis saerTaSoriso

organizacia (ILO), janmrTelobis dacvis msoflio organizacia (WHO),

rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso banki (IBRD), gaero-s

ganaTlebis, mecnierebisa da kulturis organizacia (UNESCO), gaero-s

industrialuri ganviTarebis organizacia (UNIDO), gaero-s sasursaTo da

sasoflo-sameurneo organizacia (FAO), msoflio savaWro organizacia

(WTO).

21

am organizaciebma arsebiTi wvlili Seitanes saerTaSoriso

urTieTobebis statistikis maCvenebelTa SemuSavebaSi, am maCveneblebis

gaangariSebis meTodikis srulyofasa da saerTaSoriso doneze

Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofaSi.

gaero Seiqmna 1945w. qveynebs Soris TanamSromlobis ganviTarebis,

mSvidobis mxardaWerisa da ganmtkicebis mizniT. misi Stab-bina imyofeba

niu-iorkSi, xolo evropis ganyofileba venaSi da JenevaSi.

gaero-Si funqcionirebs ori statistikuri organo: gaero-is

statistikuri komisia da gaero-is samdivnos statistikuri biuro.

statistikuri komisia dafuZnda 1946wels gaero socialuri da

ekonomikuri sabWos pirvel sesiaze. komisiis mizani gaxldaT

statistikis dargSi yvela saerTaSoriso rekomendaciis momzadeba.

gaero-is statistikuri komisiis SeqmnasTan erTad organizebuli iqna

gaero-is regionaluri komisiebi, xolo am komisiebTan – statistikosebis

regionaluri konferenciebi evropisaTvis, laTinuri amerikisaTvis,

afrikisaTvis da sxv. regionaluri komisiis samdivnoSi Seiqmna

statistikuri ganyofilebebi, regionis pirobebTan gamoyenebiT,

saerTaSoriso standartebis danergvis xelSewyobis mizniT.

gaero-is statistikur komisiasTan Seqmnilia eqvsi miznobrivi

qvedanayofisgan Semdgari samuSao jgufi. es qvedanayofebi dakavebuli

arian Semdegi problemebiT:

erovnuli angariSgeba;

mrewvelobis statistika;

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika;

finansebis statistika;

fasebis statistika;

garemos dacvis statistika.

isini moipoveben da amuSaveben informacias, avrceleben maCvenebelTa

gaangariSebis meTodologias, amzadeben kadrebs.

22

gaero-is samdivnos statistikuri biuro kordinirebas uwevs da

mimarTulebas aZlevs gaero-is yvela qvedanayofis saqmianobas

statistikis dargSi, axorcielebs mimdinare samuSaos gaero-s

saerTaSoriso statistikis dargSi. is asrulebs Semdeg funqciebs:

statistikur monacemTa mopoveba, damuSaveba da publikacia;

masalebis momzadeba sesiaze gansaxilvelad;

sxvadasxva qveynis monacemebis Sesadarisobis uzrunvelyofa;

sxvadasxva qveynisTvis daxmarebis gaweva statistikis dargSi;

gaero-os statistikuri organoebisa da sxva saerTaSoriso

organizaciebis qmedebis koordinacia.

gaero gamoscems Semdeg publikaciebs:

weliwdleuli erovnuli angariSianobis statistikaSi (gamoicema

1956 wlidan);

demografiuli weliwdleuli gamodis gaero-is statistikuri

komisiis Sveicariul ganyofilebaSi)

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi (IMF) Seiqmna 1944 wels breton-vudsis

saerTaSoriso savaluto-finansuri konferenciis gadawyvetilebiT. is

umsxvilesi saerTaSoriso organizaciaa, romelic aregulirebs savaluto

urTierTobebs wevr-saxelmwifoebTan da gamouyofs maT kredits.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis kapitali iqmneba wevr-qveynebis

Senatanebisagan TiToeuli qveynisTvis dadgenili kvotebis Sesabamisad,

romelic ganisazrvreba qveqnis ekonomikuri potencialisa da msoflio

vaWrobaSi misi rolis gaTvaliswinebiT.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis Stab-bina imyofeba voSingtonSi.

xelmZRvaneli organoa _ mmarTvelTa sabWo, xolo aRmasrulebeli –

direqtoriati.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi xels uwyobs saerTaSoriso savaluto-

finansuri operaciebis ganviTarebas.

23

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis statistika gamodis sagadamxdelo

balansisa da finansuri maCveneblebis agebis meTodologiis

kanonmdeblad.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis ZiriTad publikaciebs miekuTvneba

„sagadamxdelo balansis weliwdleuli“ da „saerTaSoriso safinanso

statistika“_ yovelTviuri gamocema, romelSic aisaxeba valutis kursi,

saerTaSoriso savaluto likvidoba, sabanko sistemis saqmianobis

maCveneblebi, fuladi masis maCveneblebi, sicocxlis dazRvevis finansuri

maCveneblebi, saprocento ganakveTebi, aqciebis fasebis indeqsebi, savaWro

da sagadamxdelo balansis maCveneblebi.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia, Seiqmna 1919 wels erTa ligis

CarCoebSi versalis xelSekrulebis safuZvelze. 1946 wlidan Sromis

saerTaSoriso organizacia moqmedebs gaero-is egidis qveS. Stab-bina

imyofeba JenevaSi. misi ZiriTadi samuSao organo aris Sromis

saerTaSoriso biuro.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

umuSevrobasTan brZola;

samuSao drois reglamentacia;

xelfasiis garantiis SemuSaveba, romelic uzrunvelyofis

cxovrebis normalur pirobebs;

sawarmoebSi ubeduri SemTxvevebisa da profesiuli daavadebisagan

dacva;

momuSave qalebis, mozardebisa da bavSvebis dacva.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis statistikuri saqmianoba

Tavmoyrilia statistikis biuroSi, romlis CarCoebSi moqmedebs Semdegi

ganyofilebebi:

xelfasis;

Sromis mwarmoeblurobisa da samuSao drois;

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebis;

saojaxo biujetebis;

24

saorganizacio sakiTxebisa da publikaciebis.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis egidiT 1923 wlidan regularulad

tardeba Sromis statistikosebis saerTaSoriso konferencia. am

konferenciebze ganixileba xelfasis, dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis,

profesiebis klasifikaciis sakiTxebi.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia gamoscems Semdeg publikaciebs:

Sromis statistikur weliwdleuls (1935 wlidan);

statistikis biuletens Sromaze _ yovelkvartaluri gamocema (1992

wlidan);

yovelTviuri Jurnali Sromis sakiTxebze.

jandacvis saerTaSoriso organizacia (WHO) xels uwyobs

msoflios qveynebSi jandacvis ganviTarebas. am organizaciis

statistikuri biuro axorcielebs mimdinare statistikas Sobadobis,

saerTo da bavSvTa sikvdilianobis, cxovrebis mosalodneli

xangrZlivobis dargSi.

jandacvis statistikis ganyofilebaSi Sedis oTxi qveganyofileba:

statistikuri publikaciebis;

meTodologiis;

daavadebaTa saerTaSoriso klasifikaciis;

statistikuri informaciis gavrcelebis.

ZiriTadi statistikuri gamocemebi:

moxseneba msoflio sanitarul statistikaze _ yovelTviuri

gamocema (sikvdilianoba, infeqciuri daavdebebiT daavadeba,

samedicino dawesebulebebiT uzrunvelyofadoba, daavadebebisa da

gardacvalebis mizezebi, xarjebi samedicino momsaxurebaze);

msoflio sanitaruli statistikis weliwdleuli.

msoflio banki (adre ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis banki)

25

dafuZnebulia 1944 wels. bankis wevri SeiZleba iyos mxolod is qveyana

romelic Sesulia msoflio savaluto fondSi.

rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso banki Seiqmna 1990 wels

42 qveynis mTavrobisa da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier,

axorcielebs operaciebs 1991 wlidan. Stab-bina mdebareobs londonSi.

Seqmnis mizani – cetraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis bazarze

gadasvlisas maTi sakredito mxardaWera. mas araoficialurad msoflio

banks uwodeben. is aris saerTaSoriso sakredito organizacia _ gaeros

specializebuli finansuri dawesebuleba, romlis ZiriTadi saqmianoba

mdgomareobs grZelvadiani kreditebis gacemaSi, SedarebiT dabali

ganakveTiT.

statistikuri samsaxurebis ZiriTadi amocanaa statistikuri informaciis

mopoveba. am mizniT banki yovelwliurad organizebas ukeTebs specialur

komisias ganviTarebad qveynebSi, informaciis uSualod adgilze miRebis

mizniT. Sedegad banki flobs sagareo davalianebis, kapitalis nakadebis,

valis dafarvis, sagadamxdelo balansebis monacemebs.

msoflio bankis statistikuri biuro yovelwliurad aqveynebs

informacias:

qveynebis finansur mdgomareobaze (biujetis Semosavlebi da

gasavlebi, biujetis deficiti (proficiti), valutebis kursi,

inflacia);

qveynebis saerTo ekonomikur mdgomareobaze (mSp, meS, dasaqmebulTa

da umuSevarTa ricxovnoba).

gaero-s ganaTlebis, mecnierebis da kulturis organizacia (UNESCO)

dafuZnda 1954 wels. Stab-bina mdebareobs parizSi. saqarTvelo gaxda

misi wevri 1992 wels.

ZiriTadi gamocemebi:

iuneskos statistikuri weliwdleuli;

ganaTlebis msoflo mimoxilva;

msoflio masobrivi informaciis saSualebebi.

26

iunesko-s statistikuri weliwdleuli iZleva saerTaSoriso masStabiT

ganaTlebis, kulturis da mecnierebis ganviTarebis doneze warmodgenis

miRebis saSualebas.

gaero-s industrialuri ganviTarebis organizacia (UNIDO). am

saerTaSoriso organizaciis mizania ganviTarebadi qveynebis samrewvelo

ganviTarebis waxaliseba da industrializaciis daCqareba.

iunido-s mTavari organoebia:

generaluri konferencia;

samrewvelo ganviTarebis sabWo;

mudmivi komiteti da samdivno.

Stab-bina mdebareobs avstriaSi (q. vena), dafuZnebulia 1966 wels, xolo

1986 wlidan aris gaero-s specializebuli dawesebuleba.

gaero-s sasursaTo da sasoflo-sameurneo organizacia (FAO) Seiqmna 1945

wels kvebekis konferenciaze, is agrZelebs saerTaSoriso agraruli

institutis saqmianobas. Mmisi ZiriTadi amocanaa soflis meurneobis da

satyeo meurneobis, TevzWeris saerTaSoriso standartebisa da

rekomendaciebis momzadeba. misi Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi. fao-s

umaRlesi organoa generaluri konferencia, romelic ikribeba weliwadSi

erTxel. sesiebs Soris periodSi organizaciis muSaobas xelmZRvanelobs

sabWo, romelic adgens msoflioSi soflis meurneobis mdgomareobis

mimoxilvebs, koordinacias uwevs samTavroboTaSoriso organizaciebis

muSaobas, sursaTisa da soflis meurneobis produqtebis warmoebis,

moxmarebisa da ganawilebis sakiTxebSi.

fao gamoscems Semdeg beWvdiT gamocemebs:

weliwdleuls warmoebis Sesaxeb;

weliwdleuls vaWrobis Sesaxeb;

yovelwliur momoxilvas ganoyierebis dargSi mdgomareobis

Sesaxeb.

27

msoflio savaWro organizacia (WTO) Seiqmna 1995 wels, saerTaSoriso

vaWrobis ganviTarebis waxalisebis mizniT, manamde saxelwodebiT

„generaluri SeTanxmeba tarifebisa da vaWrobis Sesaxeb“ (GATT) moqmedi

organizaciis bazaze. WTO wevr-qveynebi valdebuli arian vaWrobis

yvelaze xelsayreli reJimi SeTavazon am organizaciis danarCen wevrebs.

amasTan WTO-s wevr-qveynebis mTel teritoriaze daculia Tanabari

pirobebi saqonlisa da mosaxurebis yvela mwarmoeblisaTvis. saqarTvelo

gawevrianebulia WTO-Si 2000 wlidan.

saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi fasdaudebelia

erTa ligis mniSvneloba. is Seiqmna 1919 wels da arsebobda 1946 wlamde.

erTa ligasTan iyo Seqmnili statistikuri aparati, romlis damsaxureba

saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi mdgomareobs

SemdegSi:

saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis ganxorcieleba mudmiv safuZvelze;

mravali indeqsis gansazRvra (fasebis, cxovrebis Rirebulebis,

erovnuli Semosavlis, samrewvelo warmoebis);

warmoebis naturaluri maCveneblebis, mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da

Semadgenlobis, valutis kursis monacemebis regularuli

publikacia.

1919w. daiwyo yovelwliuri statistikuri Jurnalis gamocema, 1926w. _

erTa ligis statistikuri weliwdleulis, xolo 1933w. _ msoflio

mimoxilvis weliwdleuli.

Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso statistikis organizacia

amJamad globaluri statistikuri sistema warmodgenilia:

gaero-s statistikuri komisiiT;

gaero-s dargobrivis statistikuri qvedanayofebiT;

gaero-s specialuri dawesebulebebiT;

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis statistikuri samsaxurebiT;

28

regionaluri statistikuri organizaciebiT _ evrostati, DdsT-s

statistikis saxelmwifo komiteti.

CamoTvlili statistikuri samsaxurebis muSaobis Sedegebi qveqndeba maT

weliwdleulebSi da periodul gamocemebSi.

msoflio doneze yvelaze mniSvnelovani statistikuri organoa gaero-s

statistikuri komisia. is wyvets Semdeg amocanebs:

SeimuSavebs saerTaSoriso statistikur klasifikaciebs da

standartebs;

axdens erovnuli statistikuri standartebis transformirebas

Sesadaris maCveneblebSi;

pasuxismgebelia sxvadasxva qveynis statistikisa da aRricxvis

praqtikaSi saerTaSoriso standartebis danergvaze;

axorcielebs sxvadasxva qveyanaSi msoflio meTodologiis

gamoyenebis kontrols.

aRsaniSnavia, rom gaero-s saerTaSoriso standartebi atareben

sarekomendacio xasiaTs. es niSnavs imas, rom TiToeul qveyanas aqvs

ufleba gamoiyenos sakuTari erovnuli meTodebic da saerTaSoriso

standartebi. miuxedavad amisa gaero iTxovs sakuTari meTodebisa da

standartebis dacvas im statistikuri informaciasTan mimarTebiT,

romelsac qveynebi waradgenen publikaciisaTvis.

gaerTianebuli erebis oganizaciam 1993 wels samdivnoSi daafuZna

specialuri organo _ ekonomikuri da socialuri informaciisa da

gasatarebeli politikis analizis departamenti. departamenti iqca

socialur-ekonomikuri informaciis SemuSavebis centrad im politikis

Sedegebis analizis xelSewyobis mizniT, romelsac atareben gaero-s

saerTasoriso organizaciebi. am centrma gaaerTiana mopovebuli

socialuri, demografiuli, ekonomikuri informaciis, sagadamxdelo

balansis, garemos dacvis mdgomarebis monacemebis safuZvelze msoflio

ganviTarebis yvela funqcia. am samuSaoebis Sedegad yovelwliurad

mzaddeba gaeros msoflio socialur-ekonomikuri mimoxilva.

29

gaero-s saerTaSoriso organizaciebis saqmianobis sferos gafarToebam

gazarda mosapovebuli da dasamuSavebeli informaciis moculoba.

informaciis nakadebis damuSavebis Semsubuqebis mizniT Seqmnilia

saerTaSoriso gamoTvliTi centrebis qseli. pirvelma aseTma

gamoTvliTma centrma daiwyo funqcionireba gaero-s samdivnoSi niu-

iorkSi, Semdeg gaero-s evropul ganyofilebaSi JenevaSi, filialebiT

parizSi da romSi, monrealSi, voSingtonSi, venaSi da sxva regionebSi.

evrostati axorcielebs Teoriul da praqtikul saqmianobas evropuli

kavSiris socialur-ekonomikuri statistikis dargSi. is dakavebulia

statistikuri informaciis mopovebiT, damuSavebiT da publikaciiT,

axdens saerTaSoriso Sedarebebs, exmareba sxva qveynebs statistikuri

samsaxurebis mowesrigebaSi.

saerTaSoriso urTieTobebis statistika efuZneba erovnul statistikebs.

aRsaniSnavia, rom erovnuli statistikis organizacia sxvadsxva qveyanaSi

gansxvavebulia. gansakuTrebiT es exeba yofil socialistur qveynebs da

qveynebs sabazro ekonomikiT. gansxvaveba mdgomareobs imaSi, rom sabazro

ekonomikis qveynebSi:

saxelmwifo statistikis mier oficialuri statistikuri

monacemebis mopoveba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes organizaciebisa da

kerZo pirebis moTxovniT da xarjebiT;

arsebobs gamijnva informaciis mopovebiT dakavebul da

maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodikis SemuSavebiT dakavebul

samsaxurebs Soris;

informaciis mopovebiTa da damuSavebiT dakavebuli arian erTi

organizaciebi, xolo informaciis analiziT sxva organizaciebi

(samecniero kvleviTi instituti, saxelmwifo sagegmo komisiebi,

araoficialuri statistikuri organizaciebi).

statistikuri saqmianoba evrokavSiris wevr qveynebSi

evropuli integraciis procesSi statistikuri infomacia Rebulobs did

30

mniSvnelobas ara mxolod evropis calkeuli qveynebis mTavrobebisa da

organizaciebisaTvis, aramed evropuli firmebisa da calkeuli

moqalaqeebisaTvis. E

evrostati (evropis Tanamegobrobis statistikuri uwyeba) evropuli

komisiis erT-erTi mTavari organoa. misi amocana evrokavSiris maRali

xarisxis statistikuri monacemebiT uzrunvelyofaSi mdgomareobs.

evrostati asrulebs oTx ZiriTad funqcias:

pirveli, man unda uzrunvelyos evropuli oganizaciebi, da kerZod

komisia evrokavSiris CarCoebSi politikis dakvirvebisa da Sefasebis

gansaxorcileblad saWiro informasciiT.

meore, man unda warudginos statistikuri monacemebi mTlianad evropul

sazogadoebas, fimebs da sxva ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv

organizaciebs.

mesame, is pasuxismgebelia evropuli statistikuri sistemis SemuSavebaze,

romelic warmoadgens, evrokavSirze da evrokavSirisTvis Sesadarisi da

utuari statistikuri monacemebis uzrunvelmyofi stadartebis,

meTodebis da organizaciuli struqturebis sistemas.

meoTxe, evrostati monawileobs gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebisa da

ganviTarebadi qveynebis statistikuri sistemebis srulyofis samuSaoebSi.

sawarmoebze xarisxiani informaciis miRebis mniSvnelovani winapirobaa

sawarmos sruli da aqtualuri registris arseboba, romelic moicavs

monacemebs maTi ZiriTadi saqmianobis saxeobebze da zomaze, informacias

sawarmoebis misamrTebze.

registrebis SemoReba da gansakuTrebiT maTi aqtualizaciis nawili,

sakmaod rTuli amocanaa. ramdenadac arsebobs gansazRvruli garRveva

informaciis wardgenis momentsa da sawarmos saqmianobis Sewyvetis

31

moments Soris. Tumca evrokavSiris wevri bevri qveyana axali sawamoebis

registrirebisaTvis gamoiyenebs administraciul meTodebs.

kargi statistikuri registris Seqmna erTad-erTi efeqturi saSualebaa,

romelic uzrunvelyofs mrewvelobis TiToeuli dargis srul

statistikur mocvas. garda amisa is iZleva sawarmoebis sruli

dakvirvebisa da gamokiTxvebis nacvlad maTi mecnierulad dasabuTebuli

SerCeviTi gamokvlevis saSualebas. es ki sagrZnoblad amcirebs,

gamokvlevis blankebis SevsebasTan dakavSirebul, sawarmoebis saerTo

datvirTvas. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu registri harmonizirebulia evrokavSiris

wevr-qveynebis CarCoebSi, is sxva wyaroebTan SexamebiT SeiZleba

gamoyenebuli iqnes pirdapiri statistikuri wyaros saxiT. rasac zogierT

qveyanaSi ukve adgili aqvs.

Tanamedrove periodSi sawarmoebis statistikaSi mniSvnelovani gavlenis

mqone ek-s ZiriTad politikur mimarTulebebs ganekuTvnebian:

maxstrixis xelSekruleba, romelic iTvaliswinebs ekonomikuri da

savaluto politikis dargSi ufro mWidro evropul

TanamSromlobas. sawarmoebze statistikuri monacemebi saWiroa

evropuli firmebis saqmianobaze da konkurentunarianobaze

dakvirvebisaTvis;

1993 wlis TeTri dokumenti ekonomikur zrdaze,

konkurentunarianobasa da dasaqmebze, masSi CarTulia mesame

qveynebis mxridan umuSevrobis, konkurenunarianobis problemebis

gadasawyveti winadadebebi;

erTiani bazari. saqonlisa da mosaxureobis erTiani evropuli

bazris Seqmna, amasTan dakavSirebiT gaizarda gadamamuSavebeli

mrewvelobisa da momsaxurebis sferoebze mTlianad ek-s CarCoebSi

harmonizebuli statistikuri monacemebis miRebis aucilebloba.

mimdinareobs moZraoba diplomebisa da profesionalur

mobilobasTan mimarTebiT;

politika vaWrobis dargSi. urugvais raundis Sedegebze dakvirveba

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis dargSi;

32

energetikuli politika. mimarTulia sxvadasxva miznebis

gadawyvetaze, m.S. energomomaragebis usafrTxoebis, energiis

efeqtianobis, energiis gamoyenebis uaryofiT gavlenis Semcireba

garemoze, bazris gamWvirvalobis sakiTxebi;

regionaluri politika. evrokavSiris struqturul fonds sxva

regionebis mxardasaWerad marTavs komisia. sawarmos statistikis

monacemebis safuZvelze miiReba gadawyvetileba regionebisaTvis

saxsrebis gamoyofaze da am procesebze dasakvirveblad;

saSualo da mcire sawarmoebi. am dargSi gadawyvetilebebi miiReba,

rogorc ufro farTo samewarmeo politikis mniSvnelovani

elementi. maTze monacemebi moipoveba administraciuli da sxva

wyaroebidan.

politika samecniero-kvleviTi da sakonstruqcio-sacdeli

saqmianobis dargSi. samecniero-kvleviTi saqmianobis koordinacia

evrokavSiris CarCoebSi xorcirldeba samecniero-kvleviTi da

teqnikuri ganviTarebis programis meSveobiT. programa mimarTulia

iseTi dargebis ganviTarebaze, rogoricaa telematika, komunikaciis

sistemebi, informaciuli an sawarmoo teqnologiebi, garemos dacva,

bioteqnologia, transporti. am dargebSi saWiroa maRali xarisxis

statistikuri monacemebi kontrolisaTvis, SefasebisaTvis da a.S.,

xolo statistikisa da teqnikis urTierTkavSiri warmoadgens

kvlevis erT-erT dargs.

oficialuri da araoficialuri statistikuri samsaxurebi

sxvada sxva qveyanaSi, centralizebuli da decentralizebuli

statistikuri formebi

statistikur samuSaobas sxvdasxva qveyanaSi awarmoebs mravalricxovani

saxelmwifo da kerZo dawesebulebebi.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis statistikis ganviTarebaSi mniSvnelovani

roli ganekuTvneba erovnul statistikur samsaxurebs. es cneba moicavs

statistikuri samuSaoebiT dakavebul yvela samTavrobo organos,

romelTa monacemebi oficialuri statistikis safuZvelia.

33

araoficialur statistikaSi igulisxmeba sawarmoebis, kerZo samecniero

dawesebulebebis, savaWro-samrewvelo palatebis, partiebis,

gaerTianebebis, fondebis, profkavSirebis da a.S. statistikuri

informacia.

oficialuri (saxelmwifo) statistikis organizacia sazRvargareTis

qveynebSi reglamentirdeba statistikis Sesaxeb kanoniT. am kanonSi

gansazRvrulia statistikuri organoebis ZiriTadi valdebulebebi,

funqciebi, miznebi, uflebebi, da agreTve statistikis organizaciis

Taviseburebebi.

yoveli Casatarebuli statistikuri dakvirveba moiTxovs Sesabamisi

sakanonmdeblo safuZvlis gamoyenebas. statistikuri organoebis

saqmianobasTan dakavSirebiT saxelmwifos gaaCnia yvela sakanonmdeblo

uflebamosileba, magram SezRudulia administraciul uflebebSi. sxva

sityvebiT, mas ara aqvs statistikuri organoebis muSaobaSi Carevis

uflemamosileba: gaxsnas an daxuros informacia, moiTxovos monacemebi,

romelsac ar iTvaliswinebs statistikuri angariSgeba, sakadro

sakiTxebSi, specialistebis momzadebaSi, maTi Sromis anazRaurebaSi,

maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodikaSi Careva da a.S.

araoficialur statistikas, rogorc wesi, ara aqvs sakanonmdelo

safuZveli, amitom pasuxebi, gansxvavebiT saxelmwifo statistikuri

organoebisgan, organizaciebisa da kerZo pirebis moTxovnebze araris

savaldebulo.

sazRvargareTis yveynebis oficialur statistikas gaaCnia ori tipis

organizaciuli struqtura: cetralizebuli da decentralizebuli.

gaero-s eqspertebis ganmartebis Tanaxmad erovnuli statistikuri

samsaxuri iTvleba centralizebulad, Tu misi xelmZRvaneloba da

operaciebi, dakavSirebulia statistikur programebTan, aris upiratesad

erTiani, damoukidebeli samTavrobo dawesebulebis funqcia, romelsac

xelmZRvanelobs qveynis mTavari statistikosi.

34

erovnuli statistikuri samsaxuri iTvleba decentralizebulad, Tu

statistikuri programebis ganxorcielebiT da marTviT dakavebulia

ramdeneime samTavrobo organo. amdagvari struqturis dros romelime

calkeul dawesebulebas ekisreba pasuxismgebloba, sxvadasxva organoebis

statistikuri saqmianobis koordinacia. es makoordinirebeli organo,

Cveulebriv, SeimuSavebs statistikur standartebs, axorcielebs

kontrols dakvirvebis programebze, axorcielebs adgilebze muSaobis

organizacias, atarebs gamokvlevebs, iZleva konsultacias.

statistikis organizebis centralizebuli sistema Warbobs dasavleT

evropis qveynebSi da aseve kanadaSi. centralizirebuli tipi

damaxasiaTebelia aSS, iaponiasa da safrangeTisaTvis. Ddid britaneTSi

gamoiyeneba, decentralizaciisken gadaxrili, Sereuli sistema.

gaero-s eqspertebis SefasebiT statistikis centralizebul sistemas,

erTis mxriv, gaaCnia upiratesoba, ramdenadac iZleva adamianiseuli da

materialuri resursebis ufro efeqtiurad gamoyenebis saSualebas, erTi

da igive Temaze statistikuri gamokvlevevis Catarebisas gamoricxavs

dublirebas da xelsuwyobs erTiani gansazRvrebis, klasifikaciebisa da

standartebis SemoRebas, e.i. xelsuwyobs meTodologiur erTgvarovnobas.

meores mxriv, decentralizebuli sistema, ufro mobiluria, Tavisufalia

movlenis yovelmxrivi Seswavlisagan, maCvenebelTa da monacemTa

damuSavebis xerxebis Ziebisgan.

aSS-is saxelmwifo statistika decentralizebulia. statistikuri

monacemebis SegrovebiT, damuSavebiTa da publikaciiT dakavebulia 70-ze

meti saministro da uwyeba, agreTve 400 kerZo organizacia, maT Soris:

1. ekonomikuri analizis biuro (vaWrobis saministro);

2. cenzebis biuro (vaWrobis saministro);

3. marTlmsajulebis statistikis biuro (iusticiis saministro);

4. Sromis statistikis biuro (Sromis saministro);

5. satransporto statistikis biuro (transportis saministro);

6. ekonomikuri gamokvlevebis samsaxuri (soflis meurneobis

saministro);

35

7. ganaTlebis statistikis erovnuli centri (ganaTlebis saministro);

8. janmrTelobis statistikis erovnuli centri (janmrTlobis

saministro);

9. sagadasaxado sammarTvelos Semosavlebis statistikis ganyofileba

(finansTa saministro).

statistikuri samsaxurebis centralur organod iTvleba vaWrobis

saministro, romelic Sromis saministrosTan erTad agrovebs da

ganazogadebs umniSnelovanes saerTo erovnul informacias.

statistikuri saqmianobis saerTo goordinacias axorcielebs

prezidentis administraciis sainformacio da normatiuli sakiTxebis

administraciul-sabiujeto sammarTvelos mecnierebisa da statistikis

danayofi. Mmisi xelmZRvaneli iTvleba qveynis mTavar statistikosad.

didi britaneTis statistikuri samsaxuri funqcionirebs 1941 wlidan

centraluri statistikuri sammarTvelos saxiT. centraluri

statistikuri sammarTvelo warmoadgens samTavrobo dawesebulebas,

romelic Seqmnilia qveynis ministrTa kabinetTan da emorCileba premier-

ministrs. amJamad misi oficialuri organoa erovnuli statistikis

sammarTvelo erovnuli samTavrobo organizaciis statusiT. am

organizaciis direqtori iwodeba erovnul statistikosad. Mmocemuli

organizacia axorcielebs saerTo meTodologiur saqmianobas, atarebs

umniSvnelovanes statistikur gamokvlevebs da azogadebs teritoriuli

satistikuri organoebis, saministroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri

danayofebisa da aseve firmebis informacias. erovnuli statistikis

sammarTvelo axorcielebs Segrovebuli informaciis utyuarobis

Semowmebas, amuSavebs erovnul angariSebs. mis gansakuTrebul amocanas

warmoadgens mTeli britanuli Tanamegobrobis statistikis organizeba

da maTTvis statistikosebis momzadeba.

germaniis statistikuri samsaxuri funqcionirebs 1872 wlidan. aqvs

federaluri mowyobis, qalaqebisa da municipalitetebis statistikuri

organoebis, agreTve saministroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri

samsaxurebis qseli. maTi funqciebi da urTierTdamokidebuleba

36

gansazRvrulia kanoniT federaluri statistikis Sesaxeb. yvela

statistikuri organos praqtikul saqmianobas xelmZrvanelobs

federaluri statistikis sabWo, romlis SemadgenlobaSi Sedian

statistikur informaciaze momxmareblebis (saministroebis, uwyebebis,

mewarmeTa gaerTianebebis da a.S.) warmomadgenlebi da statistikuri

gamokvlevebis Semsruleblebi (federaluri statistikuri sammarTvelos

xelmZRvanelebi). federaluri statistikis sabWo ikribeba weliwadSi

erTxel da ixilavs Sesasrulebel satatistikur samuSaoebs.

safrangeTSi saxelmwifo statistikur samsaxurs 1946 wlidan

xelmZRvanelobs statistikisa da ekonomikuri gamokvlevebis instituti.

is axorcielebs regularul kvlevebs da adgens qveynis ganviTarebis

maxasiaTebel maCveneblebs. instituti atarebs saerTo erovnul

gamokvlevebs (mosaxleobis arwerebs, yveynis ekonomikuri dargebis

kvlevebs da a.S.). koordinirebas uwevs saministroebisa da uwyebebis

statistikur samsaxurebs, saministroebidan, uwyebebidan da vaWrobis

sferoSi moRvawe komerciuli sawarmoebidan miRebuli informaciis

damuSavebiT awarmoebs makroekonomikur maCveneblebs, amzadebs kadrebs

saminisroebisa da uwyebebis statistikuri samsaxurebisaTvis. institutSi

1951 wlidan funqcionirebs statistikuri gamokvlevebis koordinirebis

komiteti. mis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis qveynis ZiriTadi statistikuri

samsaxurebis warmomadgenlebi. mocemuli komiteti adgens statistikuri

gamokvlevebis yovelwliur programas, romlebSic seriozuli yuradReba

eTmoba SerCeviTi statistikuri gamokvlevebis damuSavebasa da danergvis

praqtikas, agreTve biznes-registris aqtualizaciis sakiTxebs.

leqcia 3. klasifikaciebi da dajgufebani saerTaSoriso

statistikaSi

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. dajgufebebi da klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi 2. gaeros Tanamedrove klasifikatorebi 3. ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikacia 4. dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia 5. profesiaTa tipebis saerTaSoriso klsifikatori

37

6. saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo klasifikaciebi.

dajgufebebi da klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

saerTaSoriso statistika asaxavs ekonomikur saqmianobas uzarmazari

raodenobis socialur-ekonomikuri informaciis meSveobiT. misi

Tanamedrove damuSaveba da analizi SeuZlebelia socilur-ekonomikuri

dajgufebebisa da klasifikaciebis gamoyenebis gareSe.

ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi warmoadgenen romelime niSnis mixedviT

obieqtebis erTobliobis erTgvarovan jgufebad ganawilebis logikur

xerxs.

dajgufebebi xorcieldeba statistikis mecnierebis mier SemuSavebuli

gansazRvruli principebis, wesebis, xerxebis da meTodebis safuZvelze.

kasifikaciebisagan gansxvavebiT isini atareben Tavisufal xasiaTs.

ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi aseve dajgufebebia, magram maT SeimuSavebs

statistikuri organoebi da saerTaSoriso organizaciebi da standartis

saxiTaa rekomendirebuli. aseT klasifikaciebs uwodeben saerTaSoriso

ekonomikur klasifikaciebs (sek).

saerTaSoriso ekonomikur klasifikaciebs didi mniSvneloba aqvs

saxelmwifoebis ekonomikis ganviTarebaze statistikuri informaciis

sistematizirebisaTvis. saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi

erTaderTi winapirobaa sxvadasxva qveynis statistikuri dakvirvebis

Sedegebis Sesadarisobis misaRwevad.

saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebis Seqmnis pirveli cdebi

miekuTvneba me 19-e saukunis Sua periods. amJamad maTi SemuSaveba xdeba

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier standartuli klasifikaciebisa da

nomenklaturebis formiT. klasifikaciebs safuZvlad udevs qveynebs

Soris SeTanxmebuli zogadi meTodologiuri principebi.

38

saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri klasifikaciebi saerTaSoriso statistikis

safuZvelia. dargebis, saqonlis, profesiis da saqmianobis standartulma

klasifikaciebma praqtikuli mniSvneloba miiRo mxolod meore msoflio

omis Semdeg. manamde gamoiyeneboda daqsaqsuli klasifikaciebis mravali

varianti, romelTa nawili arasakmarisad dasabuTebuli an saerTod

dausabuTebeli iyo. rac did sirTuleebs qmnida monacemTa

ganzogadebisa da maTi qveynebis mixedviT Sesadarisobis kuTxiT.

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kalasifikaciebi igeba ori xerxiT:

ierarqiuli da faseturiT.

ierarqiuli xerxiT kalasifikaciisas mTliani erToblioba Tavidan

iyofa romelime erTi niSnis mixedviT msxvil jgufebze. Semdgom es

jgufebi iyofa ufro patara jgufebad. Sedegad dgindeba ierarqia. Ee.i.

patara jgufebis yvela niSnis saerTo dajgufebisTvis

daqvemebarebuloba. amdagvari klasifikaciis magaliTia ekonomikuri

saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi

klasifikacia. ierarqiuli klasifikaciebis agebisas yvelaze rTuli

sakiTxia im niSanTa sistemis dadgena, romelic safuZvlad edeba

erTobliobis jgufebad dayofas.

faseturi xerxiT kalasifikaciisas mTliani erToblioba nawildeba

mrval erTmaneTze damoukidebel jgufad. amdagvari klasifikaciis

magaliTia mosaxleobaze iformaciis klasifikatori. am klasifikatorSi

mTeli mosaxleoba nawildeba jgufebad sqesis, asakis, moqalaqeobis

erovnebis da sxva niSnis mixedviT. faseturi kalasifikaciis

maxaiaTebeli Taviseburebaa misi agebis struqturis drekadoba. cvlileba

erT fasetaSi ar axdens arsebiT gavlenas danarCen fasetebze,

ramdenadac mravali obieqtis aRwera xdeba niSanTa CamonaTvaliT,

romelTac axasiaTebs erTmaneTTan mkacri urTierTkavSiri.

fasetur da ierarqiul klasifikatorSi TiToeul infomacias mieniWeba

cifrobrivi da anbanuri kodi.

39

saerTaSoriso klasifikaciebis SemuSavebaSi didia wvlili

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis.

gaero-s mier SemuSavebulia Semdegi klasifikaciebi:

1. dargobrivi klasifikacia;

2. seqtoruli klasifikacia;

3. samTavrobo xarjebis klasifikacia;

4. arakomerciuli organizaciebis klasifikacia;

5. ZiriTadi produqtebis (saqoneli da momsaxureba) klasifikacia;

6. ekonomikuri operaciebis klasifikacia;

7. qonebis klasifikacia.

gaeros Tanamedrove klasifikatorebi

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi garda klasifikaciisa aseve gamoiyeneba

klasifikatorebi. klasifikatori aris obieqtebis sistematizirebuli

CamonaTvali, romelSic TiToeuls eniWeba kodi.

amJamad moqmedebs Semdegi klasifikatorebi:

1. msoflios qveynebis klasifkatori;

2. ekonomikuri regionebis klasifikatori;

3. administraciul-teritoriuli danawilebis klasifkatori;

4. mosaxleobaze informaciis klasifkatori;

5. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebis funqciebis klasifkatori;

6. organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis klasifkatori;

7. valutebis klasifkatori;

8. mmarTvelobiTi dokumentaciis klasifkatori;

9. zomis erTeulebis klasifkatori.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso

standartuli dargobrivi klasifikacia

sawarmoo-teqnikuri niSnis mixedviT, sameurneo subieqtebi Seiswavleba

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikaciiT. es klasifikacia pirvelad miRebuli iqna 1948

40

wels. droTa ganmavlobaSi sawarmoo erTeulebis ekonomikuri saqmianobis

organizacia icvleba, aRmocendeba saqmianobis axali saxeobebi, Aamitom

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis Sesabamisad klasificirebul

monacemTa analizisadmi xdeba axali moTxovnebis wayeneba. Yyovelive amis

gaTvaliswinebiT gaero-s statistikurma komisiam arerTxel gadaxeda es

klasifikcia. Mam klasifikatoris mesame varianti SemuSavebulia

ganviTarebis sxvadasxva doneze da sxvadasxva ekonomikuri sistemis

qveynebis dargobriv klasifikaciaSi dagrovili gamocdilebis

gaTvaliswinebiT.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikacia uzrunvelyofs msoflios sxvadasxva qveynis

saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobas da akmayofilebs analizur moTxovnebs. is

aris baza warmoebaze, warmoebis faqtorebze da sxva statistikuri

monacemebis analizisaTvis.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikacia gamoyofs Semdeg saklasifikacio erTeulebs:

sawarmo;

saqmianobis saxeobis erTeuli;

adgilobrivi erTeuli;

dawesebuleba.

sawarmo aris yvelaze msxvili ekonomikuri erTeuli, romelic moicavs

sawarmoo saqmianobis srul process. es erTeuli avtonomiuria sawarmoo

da finansuri gadawyvetilebis nawilSi, magram aucilebeli araris iyos

erTgvarovani adgilmdebareobisa da saqmianobis saxeobebis niSniT.

erTeuli, erTgvarovani Tavisi saqmianobis mixedviT, Tavisi

adgilmdebareobis geografiuli raionisadmi miukuTvneblad iwodeba

saqmianobis saxeobis erTeulad.

erTeuli, erTgvarovani Tavisi adgilmdebareobis mixedviT iwodeba

adgilobriv erTeulad.

41

dawesebuleba esaa sawarmoo erTeuli, romelic Sedgeba sawarmosagan an

sawarmos nawilisagan, romelic dakavebulia saqmianobis erTi saxeobiT

erT adgilas. e.i. es erTeuli erTgvarovania ekonomikuri saqmianobisa da

Tavisi adgilmdebareobis kriteriumiT.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikacia, yuvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi saerTaSoriso

klasifikaciaa. am klasofokacias gamoiyenebs gaero, Sromis

saerTaSoriso organizacia, fao, iunesko, jandacvis saerTaSoriso

organizacia da sxva saerTaSoriso da erovnuli organizaciebi.

is iZleva warmoebis moculobis, fasebis, warmoebis danaxarjebis,

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis, ZiriTadi kapitalis da finansuri aqtivebis

Sedarebis saSualebas.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso dargobriv

klasifikaciebs safuZvlad udevs Semdegi niSnebi:

warmoebis teqnologiis erTianoba;

gamoyenebuli nedleulis erTgvarovneba.

saklasifikacio erTeulebia: sawarmo, organizacia, dawesebuleba,

romelTac aqvT damoukidebeli balansi, da gaaCniaT mmarTvelobis

sakuTari organoebi, romelTac SeuZliaT damoukidebeli

gadawyvetilebis miReba.

saerTaSoriso dargobriv klasifikaciebs aqvT ierarqiuli struqtura. is

agebulia mravaldonianobis safufuZvelze, rac ganpirobebulia

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi warmoebis organizaciisa da Sromis danawilebis

doneebSi gansxvavebiT. mis SemadgenlobaSi gamoiyofa dargobrivi

klasifikaciebis oTxi done:

saqmianobis saxeobis ganyofilebebi;

saqmianobis saxeobis qveganyofilebebi;

saqmianobis saxeobis jgufebi;

42

saqmianobis saxeobis klasebi.

ganyofilebebi warmoadgenen ekonomikis gamsxvilebul dargebs.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartuli

dargobrivi klasifikacia moicavs 17 ganyofilebas, aRniSnuls laTinuri

alfabitis mTavruli asoebiT.

A. soflis meurneoba, satyeo meurneoba da nadiroba.

B. meTevzeoba.

C. samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba.

D. damamuSavebeli mrewveloba.

E. eleqtroenergia, gazi da wyalmomarageba.

F. mSenebloba.

G. sabiTumo da sacalo vaWroba, avtomobilebis, motocikletebis,

sayofacxovrebo saqonlisa da piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti.

H. sastumroebi da restornebi.

I. transporti, kavSirgabmuloba da sasawyobo meurneoba.

J. finansuri Suamavloba. operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, arenda da

komerciuli saqmianoba.

K. saxelmwifo mmarTveloba da Tavdacva, savaldebulo socialuri

dazRveva.

L. ganaTleba.

M. janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri momsaxureba.

N. sxva komunaluri, socialuri da personaluri momsaxureba.

O. kerZo Sinameurneobebi daqiravebuli personaliT.

P. eqsteritoriuli organizaciebi da organoebi.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartul

dargobriv klasifikaciaSi dargi ganisazRvreba, rogorc

dawesebulebaTa erToblioba, e.i. sawarmoebi an sawarmoebis qveganayofebi,

romlebic ganlagebulia erT adgilas, dakavebuli arian sawarmoo

saqmianobis erTi saxeobiT, an ZiriTad saqmianobaze modis damatebuli

Rirebulebis didi nawili.

dargobrivi klasifikaciis meore done qveganayofebia. TiToeuli

ganyofileba Sedgeba erTi an ramodenime qveganayofisagan.

43

magaliTad ganyofilebebi ,,mSenebloba“, ,,ganaTleba“ Sedgeba mxolod

erTi qveganayofisagan. qveganayofebis Seqmnas safuZvlad udevs sameurneo

erTeulebis saqmianobis yvelaze tipuri Taviseburebebi. am

Taviseburebebs miekuTvnebian: warmoebili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

xasiaTi (produqciis fizikuri Semadgenloba, warmoebis stadiebi da

produqciiT dasakmayofilebeli moTxovnebi); saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

daniSnuleba (Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis, gamoyenebisaTvis da

dagrovebisaTvis gankuTvnili saqoneli da momsaxureba); gamoyenebuli

nedleulis nairsaxeba da misi gadamuSavebis xerxebi.

qveganayofebi orniSna kategoriebia. ase magaliTad, ganyofileba ,,soflis

meurneoba, nadiroba da metyeiba“ moicavs Semdeg gveganayofebs: 01

,,soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“;

02 ,,metyeoba, tyis damzadeba da maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“.

yoveli qveganayofi Sedgeba saqmianobis saxeobis jgufebisagan. es

dargobrivi klasifikaciis mesame donea, romelic warmodgenilia samniSna

kategoriebiT. saqmianobis TiToeul jgufSi Sedis saqmianobis metad

erTgvarovani saxeobebi. ase magaliTad, ,,soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da

maTTan dakavSirebuli momsaxureobebi“ qveganayofis SemadgenlobaSi

gamoyofilia saqmianobis Semdegi saxeobebi: 011 mebaReoba, kulturebis

moyvana, mebostneoba, 012 mecxoveleoba da a.S.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis saerTaSoriso standartul

dargobriv klasifikaciaSi meoTxe done warmodgenilia saqmianobis

saxeobebis klasebiT. isini miiReba saqmianobis saxeobebis jgufebis

dayofiT, amitom isini mocemuli klasifikaciis yvelaze erTgvarovani

kategoriebia. klasebis koduri aRniSvnis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis mesame

donis Sesabamis kodebs damatebuli meoTxe niSani. magaliTad,

saklasifikacio jgufSi 011 mebaReoba, kulturebis moyvana, mebostneoba

gamoiyofa Semdegi klasebi: 0111 marcvleulebisa da danarCen

kategoriebSi arSesuli sxva kulturebis moyvana, 0112 ,,bostneulis

moyvana, specialuri mebaReoba da sanerge produqciis warmoeba“, 0113

44

,,sasmelebisa da sunel-sanelebelis warmoebisaTvis xilis, Txilis,

kulturebis moyvana“.

saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi klasifikacia warmoadgens

saqmianobis saxeobis klasifikacias da ara dargebis an saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis klasifikacias. masSi araa gaTvaliswinebuli sakuTrebis

formaSi, iuridiul statussa an saqmianobis xasiaTSi gansxvavebebi.

saqmianobis erTi da igive saxeobiT dakavebuli erTeulebi CairTvebian

saerTaSoriso standartuli dargobrivi klasifikaciis erTi da igive

kategoriaSi, miuxedavad imisa arian isini aqcioneruli kompaniebi, kerZo

mesakuTreebi an saxelmwifo dawesebulebebi. garda amisa ar xdeba

gancalkaveba oficialur da araoficialur warmoebas Soris.

dargobrivi klasifikaciis meSveobiT Seiswavleba:

ekonomikis dargobrivi struqtura;

sawarmoo Zalebis ganviTarebis done;

Sromis sazogadoebrivi danawilebis ganviTarebis done;

sazogadoebrivi warmoebis efeqtianoba;

ekonomikis ganviTarebis socialur-ekonomikuri kompleqsuroba.

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeobebis dargobrivi klasifikacia safuZvlad

udevs mTlianad statistikuri masalis Tavmoyras: sawarmos, samuSao

Zalis, ZiriTadi fondebis, warmoebuli produqciis da a.S.

dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia.

mosaxleobis dasaqmebaze monacemTa sitematizirebisaTvis mniSvnelovan

rols asrulebs Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier miRebuli

dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia. am klasifikaciis

pirveli versia iyo miRebuli 1958 wels Sromis statistikosTa XIII

saerTaSoriso konferenciaze, meore versia _ 1988 wels Sromis

statistikosTa XIV saerTaSoriso konferenciaze da mesame versia _ XV

saerTaSoriso konferenciaze 1993 wels.

45

dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikaciis mTavari

saklasifikacio niSania saqmianobis ama Tu im saxeobisTvis mikuTvneba:

administraciuli da mmarTvelobiTi personali;

Tavisufali profesiis pirebi;

teqnikuri da maTTan gamWoli profesiis pirebi;

kancelariis mosamsaxureebi;

vaWrobaSi da momsaxurebis sferoSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;

soflis meurneobaSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;

xelosnebi da maTTan monaTesave specialobebi;

mrewvelobaSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi;

zemoT CamoTvlil klasifikaciasSi ar Sesuli muSakebi;

samxedro mosamsaxureebi.

garda dasaqmebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikaciisa

saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba 1993 wels Sromis

statistikosTa XV saerTaSoriso konferenciaze miRebuli dasaqmebis

statusis saerTaSoriso klasifikacia. mas safuZvlad udevs muSakTa

daqiravebis formis niSani. masSi gamoyofilia:

mewarmeebi (yavdeT Tundac erTi muSaki);

TviTdasaqmebuli mosaxleoba;

daqiravebuli muSakebi;

sawarmoo kooperativebis wevrebi;

ufasod damxmare ojaxis wevrebi;

muSakebi, romelTa saqmianoba ar eqvemdebareba klasifikacias.

mewarmeebi. maT miekuTvnebian muSakebi, romlebic muSaoben damoukideblad

erT an ramdenime kompanionTan, mudmivad qiraoben erT an ramdenime pirs

daqiravebuli muSakis saxiT. maT miekuTvnebian aseve arendatorebi,

romelTac ayavT daqiravebuli muSakebi.

46

TviTdasaqmebuli mosaxleoba _ Tavis xarjze momuSave pirebi. am jgufs

miekuTvnebian, pirebi, romlebic muSaoben damoukideblad an kopanionTan

da ar iyvanen daqiravebul muSakebs mudmiv safuzvelze.

daqiravebuli muSakebi. pirebi, romlebmac dades SromiTi xelSekruleba

(kontraqti) Sromis pirobebze da mis anazRaurebaze nebismieri

sakuTrebis formis sawarmos xelmZRvenelTan an calkeul pirTan.

sawarmoo kooperativebis wevrebi _ pirebi, romlebic arian kooperativis

aqtiuri wevrebi, am dros, TiToeul wevrs, warmoebis organizaciis,

produqciis gasaRebisa da Semosavlebis ganawilebis sakiTxebTan

dakavSirebiT gadawyvetilebis miRebaSi, gaaCnia Tanabari uflebebi.

ufasod damxmare ojaxis wevrebi _ pirebi, romelTa saqmianobas

xelmZRvanelobs imave saojaxo meurneobaSi mcxovrebi naTesavi. isini ar

SeiZleba ganxiluli iqnes, rogorc kompanioni. es aixsneba imiT, rom maTi

monawileobis done sawarmos saqmianobaSi gansxvavebulia drois

faqtoris danaxarjebisa da sxva faqtorebis TvalsazrisiT.

muSakebi, romelTa saqmianoba ar eqvemdebareba klasifikacias _ pirebi,

romlebic saWiro informaciis ukmarisobis an sxva mizeziT, ar SeiZleba

mikuTvnili iqnen arc erT zemoT CamoTlili jgufisaTvis. es, rogorc

wesi, sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis momsaxurebisa da keTildReobis

warmoebiT dakavebuli pirebia.

profesiaTa tipebis saerTaSoriso klasifikatori

saerTaSoriso klasifikacia profesiis tipebis mixedviT iqna

miRebuli1988 wels. masSi gamoiyofa Semdegi profesia:

mmarTvelobis muSakebi, aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo

xelisuflebis muSakebi, maRali administraciuli kadrebi;

inteleqtualuri da samecniero profesiebi;

Sualeduri profesiebi (teqnikosebi, operatorebi, medpersonali,

kulturis mosamsaxureebi, socialuri muSakebi);

47

administraciuli personali (mdivnebi, molareebi, kancelariis

muSakebi, momsaxure personali);

vaWrobis muSakebi;

soflis meurneobis muSakebi, meTevzeebi, metyeveebi;

xelosnebi da damxmare muSakebi;

manqanebisa da danadgarebis operatorebi;

arakvalificiuri muSakebi (meezoveebi, mtvirTavebi, quCis vaWrebi);

jari.

saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo klasifikaciebi

saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacia miRebuli iqna 1950 wels.

SemdgomSi ara erTxel moxda misi gadaxedva ZiriTadi saklasifikacio

principebis SenarCunebiT. misi mesame redaqcia miRebulia 1985 wels.

saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacia aris qveynebis sagareo

vaWrobis SedarebiTi analizis safuZveli.

mocemuli klasifikacia ajgufebs saqonels Semdegi niSnis mixedviT:

saqonlis damuSavebis donis mixedviT;

saqonlis daniSnulebis mixedviT;

sxva niSnebis mixedviT.

saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikacias gaaCnia xuTi done:

ganyofilebebi;

jgufebi;

qvejgufebi;

sasaqonlo poziciebi;

qvepoziciebi.

amJamad saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciam dakarga Tavisi

mniSvneloba, rac aixsneba saerTaSoriso vaWrobis saqonlis kodirebisa

da aRweris harmonizirebul sistemaze gadasvliT.

48

garda saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciisa saerTaSoriso

Sedarebebis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba:

1. saqonlis klasifikacia farTo ekonomikuri kategoriebis mixedviT;

2. sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklatura;

3. saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema;

saqonlis klasifikacia farTo ekonomikuri kategoriebis mixedviT

SemuSavebulia saerTaSoriso savaWro sasaqonlo klasifikaciis

safuZvelze da gamoiyeneba 1986 wlidan saerTaSoriso vaWrobis

Semajamebeli maCveneblebis Sedgenisas. masSi yvela saqoneli nawildeba

jgufebad produqciis daniSnulebis niSnis mixedviT (warmoebis

saSualebebi, Sualeduri saqoneli, samomxmareblo saqoneli), xolo

mocemuli jgufebis SigniT _ damuSavebis donis mixedviT.

sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklatura SemuSavebulia 1976 wels

briuselis sabaJos nomenklaturis bazaze da gamoiyeneba erovnuli

sabaJo tarifebis agebisas.

sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklaturas safuZvlad udevs Semdegi

niSnebi:

saqonlis damuSavebis done;

saqonlis warmoSoba.

saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema SemuSavebulia

sabaJo TanamSromlobis sabWos nomenklaturis safuZvelze da

SemoRebulia 1988 wels.

masSi saqonlis klasifikacia xorcieldeba Semdegi niSnis mixedviT:

saqonlis warmoSoba;

masalis saxeoba, romlisganac warmoebulia saqoneli;

saqonlis daniSnuleba;

saqonlis qimiuri Semadgenloba.

49

saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema aris kidev 12

sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso da erovnuli klasifikatoris sinTezi.

saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistema uzrunvelyofs

komerciuli saqmianobis, sabaJo da statistikuri organoebis moTxovnebs.

is sagareo vaWrobaSi monacemTa Sedgenisa da sabaJo gadasaxadebis

ganakveTebis gansazRvris safuZvelia.

harmonizebuli sistemis nomenklaturis saklasifikacio dajgufebebis

erTmniSnelovnad gagebis uzrunvelsayofad SemuSavebulia

,,harmonizebuli sistemis axsna-ganmartebebi“. is moicavs ganyofilebebis,

jgufebis, sasaqonlo poziciebisa da subpoziciebis dawvrilebiT

ganmartebebs.

leqcia 4. erovnul angariSTa sistema saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi 2. erovnul angariSTa sistema, misi arsi da mniSvneloba 3. eas-Si gamoyenebuli koncefciebi da debulebebi 4. erovnul angariSTa sistemis gaeros axali versia 5. mTliani Sida produqtis gansazRvris meTodi easSi 6. erovnuli simdidris gansazRvris Taviseburebani

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

makroekonomikuri maCvneblebi axasiaTeben nacionaluri ekonomikebis

Sedegebs kvlavwarmoebis yvela stadiaze.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi makroekonomikuri

maCveneblebi:

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba;

mTliani da wminda Sida produqti;

ekonomikis mTliani da wminda mogeba da Sereuli Semosavali;

ekonomikis mTliani da wminda erovnuli Semosavali;

50

mTliani da wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali;

saboloo erovnuli moxmareba;

mTliani da wminda erovnuli danazogi;

mTliani dagroveba;

wminda kreditebi da wminda valebi.

erovnul angariSTa sistema (easi), misi arsi da mniSvneloba

easi esaa qveynis ekonomikis makrostatistikuri modeli. eas-is Seswavlis

obieqtia qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionebis ekonomika, seqtorebi,

saqmianobis sferoebi, calkeuli ekonomikuri procesebi.

erovnul angariSTa sistema – es aris urTierTdakavSirebul

maCvenebelTa sistema, romelic gamoiyeneba sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi

makroekonomikuri procesebis aRwerisa da analizis mizniT.

eas-is mTeli ekonomikis angariSianobis Semajamebelia, radgan pirveladi,

sabuRaltro, sabanko aRricxva da statistika erTian meTodologiur

principebs efuZneba. eas-is maCveneblebi unificirebulia sagadasaxdelo

balansisa da dargTaSorisi balansis maCveneblebTan.

eas-is Seqmnas win uZRoda ganviTarebul qveynebSi sabazro ekonomikis

regulirebasa da ekonomikur informaciaze moTxovnilebis warmoSoba.

saqarTveloSi erovnuli statistikis gadasvla gaeros statistikuri

komisiis mier rekomendebul meTodologiaze ganapiroba sabazro

urTierTobebis ekonomikaSi danergvam. igi emyareba erovnul

angariSianobaze dafuZnebul saerTaSoriso praqtikas da am gziT

miiRweva informaciis mopovebis xerxebisa da ekonomikuri saqmianobisa da

misi Sedegebis aRricxvis meTodebis erTianoba. statistikuri

meTodologiis erTianoba ganapirobebs yvela qveynis maCvenebelTa

Sesadarisobas da mniSvnelovnad amartivebs saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

meqanizmsa da saimedoobas msoflios masStabiT.

51

statistikis meTodologiuri erTianoba xels uwyobs mTel msoflioSi

saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobisa da integraciuli procesebis

gafarToebas, bunebrivi resursebis racionalur gamoyenebasa da jansaRi

garemos SenarCunebis perspeqtivas momavali TaobebisaTvis, rac

ganpirobebulia erTi planetis SezRudul sivrceSi msoflio ekonomikis

istoriuli da perspeqtiuli ganviTarebis obieqturi mizezebiT, kerZod,

sawarmoo ZalaTa ganviTarebis kvaldakval bunebrivi resursebis

eqspluataciis gazrdiT, moxmarebisa da mosaxleobis zrdasTan erTad

geologiuri mdgomareobis gauaresebiT da a.S.

saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis mTavari idea Tanamedrove

etapze samyaros gadarCena da Semdgomi racionaluri da Tanmimdevruli

ganviTarebis uzrunvelyofa.

globalizaciis pirobebSi statistikis erTian saerTaSoriso

meTodologiaze gadasvla sxvadasxva qveynisaTvis SesaniSnavi saSualebaa

utyuari, Sesadarisi da yvelasaTvis gasagebi informaciis misaRebad.

EamasTan, erovnuli statistikuri samsaxurebis calkeuli Taviseburebani

ar arRvevs saerTaSoriso meTodologiuri principebis erTianobas.

sabazro urTierTobebis danergvam saqarTveloSi da statistikis

gadasvlam saerTaSoriso meTodologiaze Secvala Cveni warmodgenebi

ekonomikuri saqmianobis arssa, Sedegebsa da mis sazRvrebze. Seicvala

ekonomikuri procesebisa da maTi Sefasebis maCvenebelTa sistema,

gaangariSebis meTodika, SemoRebulia mTeli rigi axali cnebebisa da

kategoriebisa, romlebic dakavSirebulia ekonomikis struqturasTan,

saqonlis cnebasTan da a.S.

eas-is ZiriTadi amocanebia:

saerTaSoriso statistikur praqtikaSi miRebuli cnebebisa da

kategoriebis gamoyeneba ekonomikis daxasiaTebisaTvis.

eas-Si gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi klasifikaciebisa da dajgufebebis

ganxilva.

52

makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis sistemisa da maTi gaangariSebis

meTodebis gaSuqeba.

eas-is Sedgenis ZiriTadi principebisa da meTodologiis

daufleba.

calkeuli angariSebis Sedgenis meTodologiis Seswavla.

erovnuli simdidris gaangariSebis meTodologiis Seswavla.

eas-is analizis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebisa da meTodebis

ganxilva.

eas-Si gamoyenebuli koncefciebi da debulebebi

eas efuZneba mecnierulad dasabuTebul ekonomikur koncefciebs,

romelic uzrunvelyofs ekonomikuri procesebis adekvatur aRweras.

ekonomikur mecnierebaSi warmoebis koncefcia erT-erTi centraluria. igi

gansazRvravs saqmianobis saxeebs, sadac iqmneba Rirebuleba, erovnuli

Semosavali. aRsaniSnavia, rom es koncefcia sazogadoebisa da sawarmoo

Zalebis ganviTarebasTan erTad icvleboda. magaliTad, fiziokratebi

miiCnevdnen, rom warmoeba moicavda mxolod soflis meurneobasa da

mopovebiT mrewvelobas. es Teoria warmoiSva im dros, roca ekonomikis

wamyvani dargi soflis meurneoba iyo. kapitalizmis ganviTarebis

periodSi, rodesac adgili hqonda damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis

dominirebas, aSkara gaxda am Teoriis ususuroba.

ekonomikuri warmoebis Tanamedrove koncefciis Tanaxmad, warmoebis

sferoSi Sedis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebasTan dakavSirebuli

saqmianobis yvela saxe.

Semosavlebis koncefcia gansazRvravs Semosavlebis maCveneblebis

Sinaarss eas-Si. is SemuSavebulia cnobili ingliseli ekonomistis j.

hiksis mier da integrirebulia eas-Si. am koncefciis Tanaxmad,

Semosavalis wyaro SeiZleba iyos mxolod damatebuli Rirebuleba. ar

SeiZleba Semosavlad ganxilul iqnes: aqtivebis realizaciidan miRebuli

amonagebi da inflaciis Sedegad aqtivebis Rirebulebis cvlileba.

53

mesame koncefcia eyrdnoba warmoebis faqtorebis Teorias, romlis

Tanaxmad, Rirebuleba iqmneba SromiT, miwiTa da kapitaliT. erovnuli

Semosavlis Sefaseba faqtoruli SemosavlebiT gamoiyeneboda da

gamoiyeneba mraval qveyanaSi (aSS, inglisi, germania da sxv.), Tumca eas-93

ar iTvaliswinebs makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis Sefasebas faqtoruli

Semosavlebis mixedviT. igi gvTavazobs sabazro fasebis gamoyenebas,

romlebic gansxvavdebian faqtoruli Semosavlebisagan warmoebaze

gadasaxadebisa da subsidiebis saldoTi. amasTan, eas-93-is struqturaSi

gaTvaliswinebulia is monacemebi, romlebic SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes

faqtoruli Semosavlebis mixedviT erovnuli Semosavlis

gasaangariSeblad (Tu es mizanSewonilad CaiTvleba).

eas-93 faqtoruli Semosavlebis nacvlad iyenebs ,,pirveladi

Semosavlebis” kategorias _ anu Semosavlebisa, romelsac Rebuloben

ekonomikuri procesis monawileebi (agentebi) Seqmnili Rirebulebis

pirveladi ganawilebis Sedegad. pirveladi ganawilebis Sedegad

Semosavals Rebuloben ara mxolod sawarmoebi, korporaciebi da

Sinameurneobebi, romlebic uSualod monawileoben warmoebaSi, aramed

saxelmwifo marTvis organoebic (warmoebasa da importze gadasaxadebis

saxiT).

aRsaniSnavia, rom eas efuZneba ara mxolod zogad ekonomikuri xasiaTis

koncefciebs, aramed rig debulebebs, romlebic gansazRvraven monacemTa

damuSavebisa da mowesrigebis xerxebs ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

mniSvnelovani Sedegebisa da proporciebis gamovlenis mizniT. es

mniSvnelovani debulebebia:

gansxvaveba nakadebsa da maragebs Soris:

nakadi _ es aris maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs ama Tu im

procesis sidides (moculobas) drois periodSi (magaliTad warmoeba,

saqonlis yidva, xelfasis gacema da a.S.), maragi _ maCvenebeli, romelic

axasiaTebs resursebis (aqtivebis da valdebulebebis) arsebobas ama Tu im

TariRisaTvis. nakadebisa da maragebis maCveneblebi erTmaneTTan

54

dakavSirebulia Semdegi tolobiT: perodis bolosaTvis maragis sidide

udris periodis dasawyisisaTvis maragis sidides plus nakadi, romelic

axasiaTebs mocemuli resursis gadasvlas maragSi minus mocemuli

resursis maragidan amoReba.

mkveTri gansxvaveba ekonomikur operaciebsa da sxva ekonomikur

nakadebs Soris. sxva sityvebiT, nakadebi Sedgeba ekonomikuri

operaciebisa da sxva ekonomikuri nakadebisagan. ekonomikuri operacia

warmoadgens ekonomikur nakads, romelic Cndeba ori instituciuri

erTeulis erTmaneTTan nebayofilobiTi urTierTmoqmedebis Sedegad

(magaliTad, xelfasis gacema, saqonlis yidva da a.S.). calkeul

SemTxvevebSi ekonomikuri operacia SeiZleba ganxorcieldes erTi

instituciuri erTeulis farglebSi, Tu is gamodis ori sxvadasxva

saxiT. sxva ekonomikuri nakadebi _ es aris cvlilebebi aqtivebsa da

valdebulebSi, romlebic ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegs ar

warmoadgenen (magaliTad, xanZris, an wyaldidobis Sedegad saqonlis

maragis cvlileba. amave kategorias ganekuTvneba maragebis Rirebulebis

cvlileba inflaciis Sedegad).

mkveTri gansxvaveba realur (arafinansur) da finansur aqtivebs

Soris, finansuri aqtivebis nakadebsa da realur nakadebs Soris.

realuri nakadebi ZiriTadad warmoiqmneba warmoebis (anu

transformaciis procesSi, rodesac iqmneba saqoneli da momsaxureba da

xdeba sxva saqonelisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba) procesSi. warmoebis

procesi gulisxmobs iseTi faqtorebis gaerTianebasa da

urTierTqmedebas, rogoricaa: Sroma, miwa, kapitali. realur

(arafinansur) aqtivebs agreTve ganekuTvneba iseTi arawarmoebuli

aqtivebi, rogoricaa: miwa, bunebrivi wiaRiseulis maragebi da sxva.

finansuri aqtivi SeiZleba warmoiqmnas (maT Soris saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis warmoebis farglebs gareT), daifaros, gadaeces sxva

pirebsa da ekonomikis seqtorebs.

gansxvaveba, erTi mxriv, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebsa da

meore mxriv, Semosavlebis nakadebs Soris, anu aucilebelia ganvasxvaoT

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moZraoba Semosavalis moZraobisagan da maTi

registrireba moxdes calke cxrilebsa da angariSebSi.

gansxvaveba Sualedur da saboloo produqcias Soris: saboloo

55

moxmarebis produqtis SeZena xdeba saboloo moxmarebisaTvis,

investirebis an eqsportirebis mizniT da ara Semdgomi

gadamuSavebisaTvis. Sualeduri produqcia _ es aris produqcia, romelic

gamoiyeneba sawarmoo moxmarebisaTvis, anu warmoebaSi daxarjuli Sromis

sagnebi _ nedleuli, masala, saTbobi, energia da agreTve momsaxureba

warmoebis sferoSi. es gansxvaveba mniSvnelovania, radgan saboloo

moxmarebis produqti moicavs Sualeduri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

warmoebaze daxarjuli saqonlis Rirebulebas.magaliTi. avtomobilis

Rirebuleba moicavs foladis Rirebulebas, romlisaganac damzadebulia

misi ZiriTadi nawilebi da detalebi da daxarjuli energiis, saRebavis

da a.S. Rirebulebas.

Sualeduri da saboloo produqciebis gansxvaveba mniSvnelovania

mniSvnelovania ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebis zusti

gansazRvrisaTvis, ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gareSe. cxadia, produqtis

fizikuri maxasiaTeblebi yovelTvis ar aris sakmarisi mis misakuTneblad

Sualeduri an saboloo produqciisaTvis. magaliTi. puris qarxnis mier

SeZenili fqvili _ es Sualeduri moxmarebaa, xolo diasaxlisis mier

sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis _ saboloo moxmareba. produqtis

klasificireba aRniSnul or jgufad SeiZleba mxolod saqonlis

faqtobrivad gamoyenebis monacemebis safuZvelze.

gansxvavebis xazgasma instituciuri erTeulebis warmoebaSi

monawileobis an aqtivebis flobis Sedegad miRebul pirvelad

Semosavlebsa da gadanawilebis Sedegad (transfertebi) miRebul

Semosavlebs Soris. es aucilebelia erovnuli Semosavlisa da

Semosavlebis sxva maCveneblebis gaangariSebisas ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis

Tavidan asacileblad.

gansxvaveba mimdinare da kapitalur danaxarjebs Soris, rac imas niSnavs,

rom mimdinare da kapitaluri danaxarjebis registracia sxvadasxva

cxrilsa da angariSSi unda xdebodes. maTi meqanikuri dajameba

aramarTlzomieria.

rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, ekonomikuri operacia eass erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani kategoria _ es aris nebayofilobiTi urTierTqmedeba or

56

sameurneo subieqts Soris, rac dakavSirebulia produqciis warmoebasa

da gamoyenebasTan, Semosavlebis ganawilebasa da gadanawilebasTan,

finansuri aqtivebis SeZenasa da finansuri valdebulebebis aRebasTan.

ekonomikuri operaciebis tipuri magaliTebia saqonlis yidva da gayidva,

xelfasis gacema, pensiebisa da daxmarebebis gacema da miReba, kreditebis

gacema. ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegad erTi instituciuri erTeuli

meores gacvlis gziT an ufasod gadascems saqonelsa da momsaxurebas,

aqtivebs, sakuTrebis uflebebs. ekonomikuri operaciebis Sefaseba xdeba

eas-Si dadgenili wesebis Sesabamisad.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gamoyeneba moxmarebisa (Sualeduri da

saboloo) da agreTve dagrovebis miznebisTvis, unda Sefasdes saboloo

momxmareblis sabazro fasSi, romelic moicavs damatebuli Rirebulebis

gadasaxadsa (dRg) da sxva gadasaxadebs produqtebze, agreTve

satransporto da savaWro danamatebs. amgvarad, eass centraluri

maCvenebelis _ mSp-is Sefaseba xdeba saboloo momxmareblis fasebSi.

saqonlis gamoSvebis Sefaseba xdeba mwarmoeblis fasSi, romelic

saboloo myidvelis fasze naklebia savaWro-satransporto danamatebis,

dRg-sa da importze gadasaxadebis sididiT, an e.w. ZiriTad fasebSi,

romelic mwarmoeblis fasebze naklebia produqtebze gadasaxadebis

sididiT (garda dRg-sa da importze gadasaxadebisa), magram, amasTanave,

moicavs subsidiebs produqtebze.

movaxdinoT am sami saxis fasebis urTierTkavSiris ilustracia:

A – saboloo momxmareblis fasi.

B – dRg da importze gadasaxadi.

C – savaWro-satransporto danamatebi.

D – mwarmoeblis fasi (A-B-C).

E – produqtebze gadasaxadi, garda dRg-sa da gadasaxadebisa importze

(aqcizebi, gadasaxadi gayidvebze da sxv.).

F – subsidiebi produqtebze.

G – ZiriTadi fasebi (D-E-F).

57

H – sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze.

I – sxva subsidiebi warmoebaze.

J – faqtobrivi Rirebuleba (G-H+I).

rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, eas-93-Si faqtoruli Rirebuleba ar gamoiyeneba,

Tumca saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi sistema iZleva erovnuli Semosavlis

faqtoruli Rirebulebis mixedviT gaangariSebis saSualebas.

eas-Si asxvaveben produqtebze gadasaxadebsa (dRg, aqcizi, gadasaxadi

gayidvebze da a.S.) da warmoebaze sxva gadasaxadebs. erTobliobaSi isini

qmnian gadasaxadebs warmoebasa da importze. produqtebze gadasaxadebi

warmoebuli an realizirebuli produqciis moculobis an Rirebulebis

proporciulia. warmoebaze sxva gadasaxadebi (magaliTad, miwaze,

Senobebze, ZiriTad kapitalze, xelfasze gadasaxadi) ki _ warmoebis

faqtorebis proporciuli.

subsidiebi, romlebic SeiZleba warmovidginoT rogorc uaryofiTi

gadasaxadebi, eas-Si agreTve iyofa or jgufad, romlebic gadasaxadebis

zemoaRniSnuli ori jgufis simetriulia: subsidiebi produqtebze,

romlebic warmoebuli an ganawilebuli produqtebis moculobebis

proporciulia da sxva subsidiebi warmoebaze (magaliTad, saxelmwifo

biujetidan subsidiebis gamoyofa im sawarmoebisTvis, romlebic qiraoben

mosaxleobis ama Tu im jgufebs, magaliTad, invalidebs, axalgazrdebs

da a.S.), romlebic warmoebaSi gamoyenebuli faqtorebis proporciulia.

amgvarad, erTi mxriv, gansxvaveba produqtebze gadasaxadebsa da

warmoebis sxva gadasaxadebs Soris da meore mxriv, _ produqtebze

subsidiebsa da warmoebaze sxva subsidiebs Soris, _ eas-is mniSvnelovani

principia, romlis gageba mniSvnelovania ZiriTadi maCveneblebis

gaangariSebisa da Sefasebis wesebis gasarkvevad.

zogadad, eas-Si gamoSvebis Sefaseba xdeba mwarmoeblis fasebSi an

ZiriTad fasebSi. upiratesoba eniWeba ZiriTad fasebs, vinaidan isini

58

zustad asaxaven sawarmos gankargulebaSi arsebul resursebs da ufro

zust warmodgenas iZlevian ekonomikis dargobriv struqturaze.

erovnul angariSTa sistemis gaeros axali versia

amJamad moqmedebs 1993 wels miRebuli eas-is III varianti. masSi

gaumjobesebulia angariSTa struqtura da is moicavs angariSTa Semdeg

klasebs:

1. angariSTa standartuli nakrebi ekonomikis yvela seqtorisaTvis.

2. ekonomikis dargobrivi angariSebi.

3. angariSebi ekonomikuri operaciebis sxvadasxva saxisaTvis (magaliTad,

angariSebi: operaciebi sxva qveynebTan, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

angariSi da sxv.).

4. angariSebi mTeli ekonomikisaTvis.

axali eas-is mniSvnelovani Taviseburebaa mis struqturaSi satelituri

angariSebis (damxmare angariSebis) CarTva, romlebic gankuTvnilia

socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis calkeuli aspeqtebis analizisaTvis

iseTi midgomebis gamoyenebiT, rac ar aris mocemuli eas--Si.

Tanamedrove eas SeiZleba warmovidginoT rogorc informaciis

urTierTdakavSirebuli blokebis sistema, romelSic TiToeuli bloki

asaxavs ekonomikuri procesebis ama Tu im aspeqts, xolo mTlianobaSi

isini uzrunvelyofen ekonomikuri procesebis saerTo suraTis asaxvas. am

sistemis centria urTierTdakavSirebuli makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis

monacemTa bloki, romelSic Sedis: mTliani Sida produqti (mSp),

erovnuli Semosavali da maTi Semadgeneli mniSvnelovani komponentebi.

erovnul angariSTa sistemis III variantis struqtura SeiZleba Semdegi

sqemiT warmovadginoT:

59

istoriulad eas-is pirveli da centraluri bloki gaCnda mSp-sa da

erovnuli Semosavlis gaangariSebebis erTian sistemaSi integrirebis

Sedegad. igi xorcieldeba sawarmoo, ganawilebiTi (Semosavlebis) da

saboloo moxmarebis (gamoyenebis, xarjebis) meTodebiT.

erovnuli ekonomikis

angariSebi

saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis angariSi

warmoebis angariSi

sazRvargareTis

seqtoris angariSebi

saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis angariSi

Semosavlebis

formirebis angariSi

Semosavlebis

ganawilebis angariSi

pirveladi

Semosavlebisa da

mimdinare transferebis

angariSi

erovnul angariSTa

sistema

kapitalis angariSi

Semosavlebis

gamoyenebis angariSi

finansuri angariSi

kapitalis angariSi

aqtivebis sxva

cvlilebis angariSi

finansuri angariSi

gadafasebis angariSi

60

aRniSnul integraciasa da zogadad aSS-is erovnuli angariSebis

SeqmnaSi didi wvlili miuZRvis cnobil amerikel statistikoss _ saimon

kuznecs. meore msoflio omis Semdeg eas-is aRniSnul bloks miuerTda

ekonomikuri procesebis sxvadasxva aspeqtis amsaxveli makroekonomikuri

informaciis danarCeni blokebi:

erovnuli simdidrisa da ekonomikis seqtorebis monacemTa bloki.

finansuri resursebis moZraobis monacemTa bloki (finansuri

instrumentebis operaciebi).

saxelmwifo biujetis monacemebTan koordinirebuli saxelmwifo

marTvis organoebis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis monacemTa bloki.

sagadasaxdelo balansTan koordinirebuli sagareo-ekonomikuri

kavSirebis monacemTa bloki.

dargTaSorisi kavSirebis monacemTa bloki (dargTaSorisi balansi

Tanamedrove eass ganuyofeli nawilia).

yvela bloki erTmaneTTan dakavSirebulia koordinirebuli da

harmonizebuli ganmartebebiTa da klasifikaciebiT, rac qmnis safuZvels

yovlismomcveli ekonomikuri analizisaTvis. E eas-is aseTi xasiaTi

iZleva, magaliTad, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis Sesaxeb

arsebuli monacemebis Sedarebis saSualebas arsebuli aqtivebisa da

pasivebis struqturul monacemebTan.

eas-is monacemebis analizis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia: ekonomikuri zrdis

tempebisa da ekonomikur koniunqturaSi mimdinare rxevebis gansazRvra.

ekonomikis struqturisa da misi droSi cvlilebebis Seswavla,

makroekonomikuri cvladebis, rogoricaa mSp, mTliani dagroveba,

saboloo moxmareba, wminda eqsporti da a.S dinamikis gansazRvra.

es monacemebi farTod gamoiyeneba qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

mokle da saSualovadiani prognozebis Sesadgenad, romelTa

safuZvelzec miiReba mniSvnelovani gadawyvetilebebi saxelmwifo

biujetisa da sagadasaxado da sainvesticio politikis formirebasTan

dakavSirebiT. Tanamedrove pirobebSi mSp _ eas-is centraluri agregati

61

_ iqca im maCveneblad, romlis gareSe SeuZlebelia saxelmwifo biujetis

ZiriTadi parametrebis dasabuTeba.

eas-is monacemebis analizis mniSvnelovani mimarTulebebia agreTve:

erovnuli danazogis, rogorc investirebis ZiriTadi wyaros gazomva,

wminda dakreditebis an wminda sesxebis moculobis dadgena, sagareo-

ekonomikuri kavSirebis gamokvleva. eas-is seqtoruli angariSebis

SemuSaveba iZleva mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis elementebis, ekonomikis

calkeuli seqtorebis mdgomareobis gamokvlevisa da analizis

gaRrmavebis saSualebas.

zemoaRniSnuli da eas-is sxva monacemebi ekonomikuri statistikis

maCveneblebTan erTad farTod gamoiyeneba fiskaluri da fuladi

politikis sakiTxebis gadasawyvetad. amasTan dakavSirebiT

gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba SeiZina mSp-sa da saxelmwifo biujetis

deficitis Tanafardobis maCvenebelma, romelsac mTavroba iyenebs

fiskaluri politikis efeqtianobis Sesafaseblad. evrokavSirSi es

koeficienti sxva makromaCveneblebTan erTad gamoiyeneba qveynebis

savaluto fondSi daSvebis sakiTxis gadasaWrelad.

amave konteqstSi arsebiTi mniSvneloba aqvs miRebuli gadasaxadebis,

saxelmwifo valis, sagadasaxdelo balansis mimdinare operaciebis

saldosa da mSp-s Tanafardobis maCveneblebs, ris mixedviTac mTavrobam

konkretuli gadawyvetilebebi unda miiRos sagadasaxado sistemis

reformasTan, savaluto kursisa da sagareo valebis sferoSi politikis

gatarebasTan dakavSirebiT.

eas-is mniSvnelovani elementia angariSebi. isini gamoiyeneba ekonomikur

procesSi rezidenti instituciuri erTeulebis mier ganxorcielebuli

ekonomikuri operaciebis registrirebisaTvis. angariSebSi agreTve

registrirdeba operaciebi mocemuli qveynis rezidentebsa da danarCeni

msoflios rezidentebs Soris.

62

angariSebSi Canawerebi miekuTvneba ara yovel calkeul ekonomikur

operacias, aramed ekonomikuri operaciebis Sesabamisi jgufebis

ganzogadebul ricxobriv daxasiaTebebs (magaliTad, moxmareba,

dagroveba, eqsporti). zogierTi Canaweri angariSSi warmoadgens ara

ekonomikur operacias (nebayofilobiT urTierTqmedebas or da met

instituciur erTeuls Soris), aramed araordinaluri movlenebis

(xanZari, stiqiuri ubedureba, omebi da sxv.) an inflaciis Sedegad

aqtivebis cvlilebas.

zogierTi Canaweri angariSSi warmoadgens ekonomikuri procesis

sxvadasxva aspeqtis analitikur ganzogadebul maCveneblebs. am

maCvenebelTa didi nawili (magaliTad, damatebuli Rirebuleba, danazogi,

pirveladi ganawilebis saldo) gaiangariSeba sabalanso meTodiT, e.i.

rogorc sxvaoba resursebSi Canawerebis jamsa da gamoyenebaSi

Canawerebis jams Soris.

erovnuli angariSebis Sedgenis ZiriTadi principebia:

Tanmimdevrobis principi kvlavwarmoebis ciklis Tanmimdevrobis

Sesabamisia (warmoeba _ Semosavlebis formireba _ Semosavlebis

ganawileba _ Semosavlebis gamoyeneba).

,,T” formis principi _ yvela angariSi Sedgeba ori ganyofilebisagan

(sveti), marjvena moicavs ,,resursebs”, marcxena _,,gamoyenebas”.

angariSebis SekavSirebis principi - ama Tu im angariSis yovel

muxls sxva angariSSi sakorespondento angariSi aqvs.

ormagi Caweris principi (sabuRaltro aRricxvis principi) _ eas-Si

yoveli operacia aisaxeba orjer: wina angariSis ganyofilebaSi

,,gamoyeneba” da momdevno angariSis ganyofilebaSi ,,resursebi”.

sabalanso meTodis principi _ yvela ekonomikuri nakadi

registrirdeba balansis formiT.

gaangariSebiTi kategoriebis principi _ damabalansebeli muxli

uwinaresad aris gaangariSebiTi kategoria, romlis daniSnulebaa

ara mxolod resursebisa da maTi gamoyenebis moculobebs Soris

balansis uzrunvelyofa, aramed ama Tu im ekonomikuri procesis

63

daxasiaTeba, rac maT mniSvnelovan makroekonomikur maCveneblad

aqcevs.

eas-is struqturis safuZvels warmoadgens angariSebi da sabalanso

cxrilebi. angariSi asaxavs operaciebs, aqtivebs an sameurneo erTeulebis

valdebulebebs. is warmoadgens ormxriv cxrils, sadac jamebs Soris

toloba miiRweva damabalansebeli muxlis meSveobiT da es

damabalansebeli muxli makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia. damabalansebeli

muxli iZleva erTi angariSidan meoreze gadasvlisa da angariSebis erT

sistemaSi SekavSirebis saSualebas.

eas-Si arsebobs angariSebis mkafio klasifikacia:

angariSebi ekonomikis instituciuri seqtorebisaTvis.

angariSebi ekonomikis dargebisaTvis.

angariSebi calkeuli ekonomikuri operaciebisaTvis.

angariSebi mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis (konsolidirebuli angariSebi).

angariSebi ekonomikis instituciuri seqtorebisaTvis iyofa Semdeg sam

jgufad:

mimdinare operaciebis angariSebi.

dagrovebis angariSebi.

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansebi.

mimdinare operaciebis angariSebia:

warmoebis angariSi.

Semosavlebis formirebis angariSi.

pirveladi Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSi.

Semosavlebis meoradi ganawilebis angariSi.

Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSi (naturalur formaSi).

koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavlebis gamoyenebis angariSi.

dagrovebis angariSebia:

kapitalis operaciebis angariSi.

finansuri angariSi.

aqtivebSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSi:

64

a) aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSi.

b) gadafasebis angariSi.

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi:

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi periodis dasawyisisaTvis.

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi periodis bolosaTvis.

mTliani Sida produqtis gansazRvris meTodi eas-Si

ekonomikis funqcionirebis Sedegebis mTavari makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia

mTliani Sida produqti. es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba rogorc calkeuli

qveynebis, aseve saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier. igi gamoiyeneba

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis, sazogadoebrivi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis

gaangariSebisa da ekonomikuri efeqtianobis sxva maCveneblebis daxasiaTebis

mizniT.

mSp aris wlis manZilze mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze

warmoebuli yvela saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba Sualeduri

moxmarebis gamoklebiT.

sawarmos, dargis, seqtoris doneze mSp-s Seesabameba maCvenebeli mTliani

damatebuli Rirebuleba.

mSp-Si Sedis agreTve ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba (Cvens praqtikaSi

amortizacia). es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri saqmianobis mTliani

Sedegebis daxasiaTebis mizniT. im mizezis gamo, rom produqciisa da

momsaxurebis realizaciis Semdeg amortizaciis anaricxebi isev ubrundeba

mwarmoebels, rac saSualebas iZleva axali investiciebis

gansaxorcieleblad, kerZod, kapitaluri remontisTvis, ZiriTadi kapitalis

renovaciisaTvis da sxv., dasavleTis qveynebSi daCqarebuli amortizacia

ganixileba rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis faqtori.

miuxedavad imisa, rom wminda maCveneblebis gamoTvla Zalian mniSvnelovania,

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gazomva aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis bazaze

dReisaTvis gaZnelebulia, amitom prioriteti eniWeba mdR-is gamoTvlas.

65

sagareo vaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mSp SeiZleba gaviangariSoT

kvlavwarmoebis ciklis yovel stadiaze Sesabamisi meTodebis daxmarebiT:

sawarmoo.

ganawilebiTi.

saboloo moxmarebis.

sawarmoo meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia sxvadasxva xerxiT:

1. mSp sabazro fasebSi = Sida ekonomikaSi warmoebuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba ZiriTad fasebSi _ Sualeduri

moxmarebis saerTo Rirebuleba + damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi

+ wminda gadasaxadebi importze.

2. mSp sabazro fasebSi = dargebis damatebuli Rirebulebis (sabazro

fasebSi) jams, e.i igi moicavs wminda gadasaxadebs produqtebsa da

importze (dRg-s gareSe). amasTan, mdR dargSi gaiangariSeba rogorc

sxvaoba mg-sa (sabazro fasebSi) da Sm-s Soris.

3. mSp sabazro fasebSi = ekonomikis seqtorebSi mdR-s jami (sabazro

fasebSi).

mSp-is gaangariSeba warmoebis stadiaze asaxavs warmoebis wyaroebs. masSi

aRricxulia saangariSo periodis mTliani gamoSveba (warmoebis fasebSi)

Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoklebiT (moxmarebis fasebSi). igi saSualebas

gvaZlevs davaxasiaToT TiToeuli dargis, seqtoris wvlili mSp-s SeqmnaSi,

avsaxoT ekonomikis dargobrivi struqtura da ganviTarebis xasiaTi.

ganawilebiTi meTodi gamoiyeneba ganawilebis stadiaze. es aris pirveladi

Semosavlebis jami, romelic rezidenti ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier

nawildeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mwarmoebelTa Soris: daqiravebul

momuSaveTa Sromis anazRaurebas + wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da

importze + mTliani mogeba + mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.

ganawilebiTi meTodis saSualebiT mSp-s gaangariSeba saSualebas gvaZlevs

gavaanalizoT Semosavlebi da maTi struqtura, warmoebis faqtorTa

danaxarjebi (ZiriTadi kapitali, samuSao Zala), mTliani damatebuli

Rirebulebis ganawileba mis mwarmoeblebs Soris.

66

mSp-is gaangariSebis mocemul meTods damoukidebeli mniSvnelobac aqvs

Semosavlebisa da maTi struqturis analizSi, sagadasaxado tvirTisa da

mTliani mogebis xveriTi wilis daxasiaTebis mizniT da sxv.

saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT mSp gaiangariSeba rogorc saboloo

moxmarebisa da mTliani dazogvis jami eqsport-importis saldos

gaTvaliswinebiT.

gamoyenebis stadiaze gamoTvlili mSp tolia saboloo moxmarebisTvis

SeZenili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisa moxmarebis fasebSi. eas-

is angariSebSi mSp-is saboloo moxmareba iyofa Semdeg muxlebad: piradi da

saxelmwifo moxmareba, mTliani dagroveba (sabrunavi saSualebebis

maragebis mateba, kapitaldabandebebi) da eqsport-importis saldo.

sxvadasxva meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSebas garduvalad mivyavarT misi

raodenobrivi Sefasebebis gansxvavebebTan, rac ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia

Segrovili statistikuri masalis araadekvaturobiT (SeusabamobiT)

ekonomikur operaciebTan. ganviTarebul qveynebSi sxvadasxva meTodiT

gamoTvlil mSp-ebs Soris sxvaoba 1-2%-s Seadgens. statistikur cnobarebSi

aRniSnuli SemTxvevebi formulirdeba specialur poziciaSi “statistikuri

gansxvavebani”.

erovnuli simdidris gansazRvris Taviseburebani

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

erovnuli simdidris koncefcia, romelic rekomendebulia erovnul

angariSTa sistema-93-Si da gaziarebulia erovnuli statistikebis mier

SeiZleba mokled Semdegnairad warmovadginoT:

erovnuli simdidre aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti instituciuri

erTeulebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami raime TariRisaTvis (wlis

dasawyisSi an bolosaTvis).

67

kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba aris instituciuri erTeulis yvela

ekonomikuri aqtivis (arafinansuri da finansuri) Rirebulebasa da maT

finansur valdebulebaTa sidides Soris sxvaoba.

mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidre udris arafinansuri aqtivebis

Rirebulebas damatebuli wminda finansuri moTxovnebi danarCen

msofliosTan. erovnuli simdidre SeiZleba agreTve gansazRvruli iyos,

rogorc ekonomikis seqtorebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami, maTi

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

erovnuli simdidris gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba mxolod

sazRvargareTis finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis saldo, vinaidan

erovnuli ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris warmoqmnili finansuri aqtivebi da

valdebulebebi urTierTgdaifareba.

erovnul simdidreSi CarTuli unda iyos mxolod is aqtivebi, romlebzec

konkretul sameurneo subieqtebs SeuZliaT gaavrcelon sakuTrebis ufleba

(aseTi aqtivebs ekonomikuri aqtivebi ewodeba).

erovnul simdidres ar miekuTvneba moZiebuli bunebrivi resursebi, romlebic

ama Tu im mizezis gamo ar iyo CarTuli ekonomikur procesSi, ar warmoadgens

konkretuli instituciuri erTeulebis sakuTrebas. yvela aqtivi da

valdebuleba unda Sefasdes im momentisaTvis arsebul sabazro fasebSi da

ara maTi SeZenis fasebSi, rasac xSirad adgili aqvs sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi.

erovnuli simdidris ganmartebidan Cans, rom mis SemadgenlobaSi CarTuli

unda iyos aqtivebi, romlebic sazRvargareT aris ganTavsebuli, magram

mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis sakuTrebaa (magaliTad, saelCoebis,

sakonsuloebis, warmomadgenlobebis da a. S. Senobebi da qoneba) da, piriqiT:

aqtivebi, romlebic ganTavsebulia mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze, magram

ararezidentebis sakuTrebaa, ar SeiZleba CaiTvalos mocemuli qveynis

erovnul simdidred. Tumca sazRvargareT ganTavsebuli kompaniebis aqtivebi,

romlebic mTlianad an nawilobrivadaa SeZenili mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis mier, SeiZleba SevitanoT mocemuli qveynis erovnul

68

simdidreSi finansuri aqtivebis mxolod im moculobiT, rac adasturebs

rezidentebis sakuTrebis uflebas kompaniaze an mis nawilze.

rac Seexeba ararezidentebis mier SeZenil Senobebsa da miwebs, isini

ganixileba rogorc finansuri aqtivebis SeZena, romelic aZlevs maT

sakuTrebis uflebas miwasa da Senobebze. amave dros, ararezidentebze

miyiduli miwa da Senobebi pirobiTi rezident-erTeulebis sakuTrebad

iTvleba. qveynis erovnuli simdidris Sefasebisas misi arafinansuri aqtivebis

SemadgenlobaSi Sedis Senobebisa da miwis Rirebuleba, romelic gayidulia

ararezidentebze, magram imavdroulad es Sefasebebi unda aisaxos rogorc

mocemuli qveynis finansuri valdebuleba “danarCen msofliosTan”

mimarTebaSi da, saboloo angariSiT, ararezidentebze gayiduli miwa da

Senobebi amoRebuli iqneba qveynis erovnuli simdidridan. aRsaniSnavia, rom

sazRvargareTis aqtivebis moculobisa da sabazro Rirebulebis gansazRvra

rTuli amocanaa.

eas-93-is Sesabamisad erovnuli simdidris gaangariSeba unda ganxorcieldes

rogorc mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis, ise misi seqtorebisaTvis.

ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT aqtivebis Rirebulebisa da Semadgenlobis

monacemebi saSualebas gvaZlevs SevafasoT erovnuli simdidris ganawileba,

aqtivebis likviduroba. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sesaxeb monacemebi seqtorebis

mixedviT saWiroa maTi investiciuri aqtiurobisa da dafinansebaze

moTxovnilebis analizisaTvis, agreTve warmoebis efeqtianobis

(kapitalukugebis) Sesafaseblad. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis Sesaxeb

monacemebi saWiroa maTi brunvadobisa da warmoebis procesis uzrunvelyofis

analizisaTvis.

mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidris gaangariSeba da kapitalis

wminda Rirebuleba ekonomikis seqtorebisaTvis aisaxeba aqtivebisa da

pasivebis balansSi (cxrili 10.1), romelic dgeba periodis sawyisi da

saboloo mdgomareobis mixedviT.

69

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi

cxrili 10.1.

aqtivebi operaciebi da damabalansebeli

muxlebi

kapitalis wminda

Rirebuleba da

valdebulebani

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi

periodis dasawyisisaTvis

* arafinansuri aqtivebi

* warmoebuli aqtivebi

* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

* finansuri aqtivebi

finansuri valdebulebebi *

kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba *

jamuri cvlilebebi aqtivebsa da

valdebulebebSi

* arafinansuri aqtivebi

* warmoebuli aqtivebi

* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

* finansuri aqtivebi

finansuri valdebulebebi *

kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis

cvlilebis Sedegi

*

* danazogebi da kapitaluri

transfertebi

*

70

sxva cvlilebebi aqtivebis moculobaSi *

nominaluri holdinguri mogeba

(zarali)

*

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi

periodis bolosaTvis

* arafinansuri aqtivebi

* warmoebuli aqtivebi

* arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

* finansuri aqtivebi

finansuri valdebulebebi *

kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba *

aqtivebisa da pasivebis balansi _ erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is erT-

erTi mniSvnelovani cxrilia, radgan is moicavs monacemebs mniSvnelovan

makroekonomikur kategoriaze _ erovnuli simdidris Sesaxeb.

periodis dasawyisSi da periodis bolosaTvis aqtivebisa da pasivebis

balansis maCveneblebis Sedareba saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovavlinoT

periodis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebisa da erovnuli simdidris Rirebulebebis

cvlileba, rac ekonomikuri operaciebisa da sxva mniSvnelovani xasiaTis

faqtorebis gavlenis (stiqiuri ubedureba, xanZari da sxv.) Sedegia. es

cvlilebebi registrirdeba erovnul angariSTa sistemis sxva

angariSebSi.

periodis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebis Rirebulebis cvlileba SeiZleba

warmovadginoT Semdegi saxiT:

At+1= At+ek. + sxv. + Mр,

sadac At da At+1 Sesabamisad mocemuli saxis aqtivebis Rirebulebaa

periodis dasawyisSi da bolosaTvis.

71

ek. _ saangariSo periodSi ekonomikuri operaciebis Sedegad aqtivebis

Rirebulebis cvlileba (warmoeba, yidva-gayidva, usasyidlod gadacema),

e.i. esaa sxvaoba SeZenili (A+) da mwyobridan gamosuli aqtivebis (A-):A+-

A- Rirebulebebs Soris, rac aisaxeba erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi

finansur angariSSi da kapitalis angariSSi.

sxv. _ aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis Rirebuleba,

dakavSirebuli araekonomikur operaciebTan (sasargeblo wiaRiseulis

moZieba, stiqiuri ubedurebebi da a. S.). RirebulebaSi cvlilebebi iseve

ganisazRvreba, rogorc wina SemTxvevaSi da gamoisaxeba tolobiT (1)

niSnis gaTvaliswinebiT.

sxv. aisaxeba aqtivebis moculobaSi sxva cvlilebebis angariSSi.

Mр _ aqtivebis Rirebulebis nominaluri gadideba an Semcireba,

periodis ganmavlobaSi, ganpirobebuli misi fasis cvlilebiT, e.i.

dadebiTi an uaryofiTi holdinguri mogebaa. Mр _ aisaxeba eas-is

gadafasebis angariSSi.

aseTive urTierTkavSiri arsebobs finansur valdebulebebsa da

kapitalis wminda Rirebulebas Soris.

ekonomikuri aqtivebi aris Rirebulebis mqone obieqtebi, romlebzec

instituciuri erTeulebis mier individualurad an koleqtiurad

vrceldeba sakuTrebis ufleba da romelTa flobiT (an gamoyenebiT) maT

flobelebs garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi SeuZliaT ekonomikuri

sargeblis miReba.

aqtivebs ar miekuTvneba adamianiseuli kapitali, bunebrivi aqtivebi,

romlebic ar iTvleba ekonomikur aqtivebad (magaliTad, sahaero sivrce)

da garantiis tipis pirobiTi aqtivebi, romlebic ar warmoadgenen

finansur aqtivebs (magaliTad, valis dafarvis garantia, romelic

SemoTavazebulia mesame mxaris mier, sakredito xazi da a. S.).

erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is Sesabamisad yvela aqtivi iyofa sam

ZiriTad jgufad _ arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi, arafinansuri

arawarmoebuli aqtivebi da finansuri aqtivebi:

72

I. arafinansuri aqtivebi

1. arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi

1.1. ZiriTadi kapitali

1.1.1. materialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sacxovrebeli binebi

sxva Senobebi da nagebobebi

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi

kultivirebadi aqtivebi

1.1.2. aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sasargeblo wiaRiseulis moZieba

programuli uzrunvelyofa (kompiuterebis)

literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis

originalebi

sxva aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

1.2. materialuri sabrunavi kapitalis maragebi

1.2.1. masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi

1.2.2. daumTavrebeli warmoeba

1.2.3. mza produqcia

1.2.4. saqoneli xelmeored gasayidad

1.3. faseulobani

1.3.1. Zvirfasi qvebi da liTonebi

1.3.2. antikvariati da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebi

1.3.3. sxva faseulobebi

2. arafinansuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.1. materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.1.1. miwa

2.1.2. sasargeblo wiaRiseuli

2.1.3. arakultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi

2.1.4. wylis resursebi

2.2. aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.2.1. dapatentebuli obieqtebi

2.2.2. xelSekrulebebi arendis Sesaxeb da sxva gadasacemi

xelSekrulebebi

2.2.3. nayidi gudvili (saqmiani kavSirebisa da reputaciis

73

pirobiTi Rirebuleba)

2.2.4. sxva aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi.

II. finansuri aqtivebi

1. monetaruli oqro da nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi

2. naRdi fuli da depozitebi

3. fasiani qaRaldebi, aqciebis garda

4. sesxebi

5. aqciebi da kapitalSi monawileobis sxva saxeebi

6. dazRvevis teqnikuri rezervebi

7. kreditorebisa da debitorebis sxva angariSebi

leqcia 5. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis arsi 2. valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis cneba 3. saqonel-warmomadgelebis SerCeva saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

programisTvis 4. mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologia

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis arsi

sxvadsxva qveynis maCvenebelTa Sedareba uaxles dromde xorcieldeboda

SezRuduli informaciis safuZvelze. aseTi situacia iwvevda msoflio

ekonomkaSi ama Tu im qveynis adgilze mravalricxovan alternatiul

Sefasebebs.

amJamad qveynebi gadadian saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis Sedegis miRebis

principulad axal gzaze gaeros saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programaSi

monawileobiT.

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa esa kvleviTi programa, romelsac

axorcieleben erovnuli statistikuri samsaxurebis, saerTaSoriso

statistikuri organizaciebis, kvleviTi danayofebis statistikuri

organoebi.

74

am programis Sedegebis meSveobiT xdeba iseTi mniSvnelovani amocanebis

gadawyveta rogoricaa:

qveynebis saerTo ekonomikuri ganviTarebis Sefaseba;

mosaxleobis keTildReobis Sefaseba;

ekonomikuri da samxedro potencialis Sedareba;

erovnuli ekonomikebis efeqtianobis gansazRvra da Sedareba;

qveynebis finansuri SesaZleblobebis gansazRvra;

bazris koniunqturis analizi (bazris tevadoba, valutis

myidvelobiTi unari);

saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri integraciis Seswavla;

ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis daxmarebis moculobisa da politikis

gansazRvra;

ganviTarebis ekonomikuri Teoriebis SemuSaveba (ganviTarebis

modelebis).

RirebulebiTi makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

ganxorcieleba moiTxovs Semdegi ori problemis gadawyvetas:

Sesadarebeli maCveneblebis ekonomikuri Sinaarsis unificirebas;

maCveneblebis erovnuli valutidan erTian fulad erTeulSi

gadaangariSebis meTodikis SerCevas.

pirveli problemis gadawyveta efuZneba saerTaSoriso standartuli

klasifikaciebisa da erTiani meTodologiis gamoyenebas.

meore problema mdgomareobs gaangariSebis formulis, wonebis, kerZo

indeqsebis agregirebis xerxebis SerCevaSi. am problemis gadawyveta

ganisazRvreba Casatarebeli Sedarebebis ekonomikuri SinaarsiT, miznebiT

da amocanebiT, amosavali informaciiT. saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

TeoriaSi ganasxvaveben:

pirdapir wyvilad Sedarebebs (binaruli Sedarebebi);

mravalmxriv Sedarebebs qveynebis jgufebisaTvis erTdroulad.

75

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi gaero, mb, euTo rogorc wesi atareben

mravalmxriv Sedarebebs. zogierT SemTxvevaSi amdagvar SedarebebSi

gamoiyeneba centraluri yveynis meTodi. am meTodis gamoyenebisas yvela

yveynis makromaCveneblebis Sedareba xdeba sabaziso (centraluri) qveynis

makromaCveneblebTan. es niSnavs imas, rom nebismieri qveynebis

wyvilisaTvis indeqsebi gaiangariSeba arapirdapir, e.i. am yveynebis

maCenebelTa indeqsebis centraluri qveynis maCveneblebTan

SepirispirebiT.

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programa xorcieldeba ramednime etapad:

mTliani warmoeba an moxmareba iyofa pirvelad sasaqonlo

jgufebad, jgufebi ki qvejgufebad;

jgufebSi Sesadarebeli qvenebisaTvis SerCeva erTnairi saqonel-

warmomadgenlebi, fiqsirdeba maTi fasebi da gaiangariSeba fasebis

Tanafardobis individualuriindeqsebi;

qvejgufisaTvis gaiangariSeba fasebis saSualo indeqsi saSualo

geometriuli formuliT;

qvejgufebis fasebis saSualo indeqsebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba

msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi sasaqonlo jgufebisaTvis;

miRebuli paritetebis meSveobiT produqciis RirebulebiT

moculobebi sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT gadaiangariSeba erTian

valutaSi;

ganisazRvreba warmoebis (realizaciis) fizikuri moculobis

indeqsebi.

valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis cneba

erovnuli angariSebis sistemis struqtura iTvaliswinebs fasebisa da

fizikuri moculobis maCveneblebis analizisaTvis gamosadegi,

konceptualurad SeTanxmebuli erTiani kompleqsis Sedgenis

SesaZleblobas. amocana mdgomareobs urTierTdakavSirebuli

maCveneblebis gaangariSebaSi, rac iZleva inflaciis, ekonomikuri zrdisa

da misi dinamikis sistematuri, detaluri analizis Catarebisa da

76

agreTve saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobis problemebis gadawyvetis

saSualebas.

saerTaSoriso makroekonomikuri Sesadarisobis ZiriTadi mizania

sxvadasxva qveynis mTliani Sida produqtisa da erovnuli angariSebis

sxva agregatebis gadayvana erTian valutaSi maTi pirdapiri

Sesadarisobis uzrunvelsayofad.

mSp-is analizis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa mSp-sa da misi

komponentebis saerTaSoriso Sedareba. amisaTvis sxvadasxva qveynis mSp

erTian valutaSi (magaliTad, aSS dolarebSi) unda iyos gamosaxuli. am

miznisaTvis savaluto kursis gamoyeneba ver uzrunvelyofs

gaangariSebis Sedegebis sizustes, radgan oficialuri savaluto kursiT

ar xdeba mSp-Si Semavali yvela saxis operaciis Sefaseba da maTze

gavlenas axdens agreTve iseTi faqtorebi, romelTac ara aqvT pirdapiri

kavSiri warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculobebis

SedarebebTan (magaliTad, kapitalis saerTaSoriso nakadi, valutis

miwodebasa da moTxovnas Soris Tanafardoba da a. S.). garda amisa,

savaluto kursis gamoyeneba, romelic saSualebas gvaZlevs SevafasoT

sxvadasxva qveynis mTliani Sida produqti Sesadaris valutaSi, ar

uzrunvelyofs gansxvavebaTa nivelirebas Sesadari qveynebis fasebis

doneebSi. amitom Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso statistikaSi mSp-is

maCveneblebis Sedareba xorcieldeba valutis e.w. msyidvelobiTi unaris

paritetebis (mup) meSveobiT.

msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi (mup) _ esaa koeficientebi, romlebic

gamosaxaven Tanafardobas qveynebis fasebs Soris. rogorc wesi, mup

saangariSo, statistikuri kategoriaa. is ar gamoiyeneba valutis

gacvlisaTvis, ar gvevlineba realuri ekonomikuri politikis

instrumentad (oficialuri savaluto kursisgan gansxvavebiT), aramed

warmoadgens mSp-is saerTaSoriso SedarebaTa uzrunvelyofis teqnikur

instruments.

77

mup gviCvenebs mocemuli qveynis ra raodenobis valuta unda davxarjoT

sxva qveynis valutis erTeuliT SesaZen (vTqvaT, erT dolarad)

saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze.

garkveuli TvalsazrisiT mup fasebis dinamikis indeqsebis sivrcobrivi

analogiaa: fasebis dinamikuri indeqsebi (ufro zustad, maTi

Sebrunebuli sidideebi, Tu drois periods zrdadobiT aviRebT) zomavs

erTi da imave valutis msyidvelobiTi unaris cvlilebas droSi, mup

sxvadasxva valutis msyidvelobiTi unarebis sxvaobas zomavs

sivrcobrivad. Sesabamisad, mup Taviseburi sivrcobrivi deflatoria. misi

daxmarebiT erovnuli RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi daiyvaneba garkveul

`realur~ fulad sazomamde.

mup-is gamoyeneba mSp-is SedarebebisaTvis erTdroulad ori amocanis

gadaWris saSualebas gvaZlevs: 1) gadavafasoT erovnuli valuta

Sesadar savaluto erTeulebSi da 2) aRmovfxvraT fasebis doneebSi

arsebuli sxvaobis zegavlena.

mup-is daxmarebiT, erovnulidan Sesadaris valutaSi gadaangariSebul

maCveneblebs xSirad `realur moculobebs~ uwodeben. termini `realuri~

gamoiyeneba mSp-is saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis konteqstSi imisaTvis, rom

vaCvenoT gacvliTi savaluto kursis mixedviT gadaangariSebebis

Sedegegebisgan gansxvaveba, romelic `nominalur moculobad~ iwodeba.

mup-is gaangariSeba sakmaod rTulia rogorc Teoriulad, ise

praqtikulad. is moiTxovs fasebis, warmoebuli da gamoyenebuli

produqciis moculobaze monacemTa didi masivis mopovebasa da

damuSavebas. am gaangariSebis safuZvls warmoadgens saqonel-

warmomadgenlebis meTodi

saqonel-warmomadgelebis SerCeva saerTaSoriso

Sedarebebis programisTvis

78

Sedarebebi gaeros saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis programis CarCoebSi

(gaeros sSp) xorcieldeba saqonel-warmomadgenlebis meTodiT, romlis

arsi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:

Sesadarisi qveynebis (vTqvaT, A da B qveynebis) mSp-ebs yofen

ramdenime sasaqonlo jgufad, rasac specialur literaturaSi

`umciresi sasaqonlo jgufebi~ ewodeba, maTi ricxvi ZiriTadad

meryeobs 150-dan 300-mde. umciresi sasaqonlo jgufebi iqmneba

mxolod mSp-s gadasafaseblad Sesadar valutaSi da ekonomikuri

analizis mizniT, SesaZlebelia maTi gaerTianeba ufro farTo

analitikur jgufebSi. amrigad, mTliani Sida produqti, Sedarebis

mizniT, iyofa ZiriTad komponentebad (moxmareba, dagroveba da a.S.),

analizur jgufebad da umcires sasaqonlo jgufebad.

TiToeuli umciresi sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis moinaxeba 4-6 fasiT

identuri an analogiuri saqonel-warmomadgeneli (TiToeul

SemTxvevaSi saqonel-warmomadgenelTa ricxvi damokidebulia maTi

fasebis indeqsis dispersiis sididisgan).

TiToeuli umciresi sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis. saqonel-

warmomadgenlebis fasebs Soris Tanafardobis daxasiaTebis mizniT,

gaiangariSeba fasebis individualuri indeqsebi, (Tu X sasaqonlo

jgufSi Sedis 5 saqonel-warmomadgeneli, aucilebelia

gamoviTvaloT fasebis amdenive individualuri indeqsi).

wina etapis gaangariSebebis Sedegebis mixedviT TiToeuli umciresi

sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis angariSoben fasebis individualuri

indeqsebis saSualo indeqss. amisaTvis gamoiyeneba martivi saSualo

geometriulis formula. am formulis gamoyeneba ganpirobebulia

informaciis ararsebobiT saqonel-warmomadgenelTa wonebis

Sesaxeb, e.i ama Tu im sasaqonlo jgufSi saqonel-warmomadgenlebis

wilis Sesaxeb monacemebi. saSualo geometriulis gamoyeneba

uzrunvelyofs indeqsebis winaSe dasmul mniSvnelovan moTxovnas _

indeqsis sididis damoukideblobas sabaziso qveynis SerCevisagan.

sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, saSualo ariTmetikulis formulis

gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi, Sedarebis Sedegi damokidebuli iqneboda

imaze, mocemuli ori qveynidan (A da B) romels ganvixilavdiT

rogorc sabazisos (ix. cxrili).

79

ganvixiloT fasebis saSualo indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodi X umciresi

sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis:

saqonel-warmomadgen-

lebi

1

2

3

4

5

fasebi A qveyanaSi 2 4 1 5 7

fasebi B qveyanaSi 3 8 3 10 28

fasebis indeqsi,

qveyana A=1

1,5

2

3

2

4

saSualo indeqsi

Ip= 5 2*4*3*2*5,1 =2,4

aseTi wesiT gaangariSebuli fasebis saSualo indeqsi X sasaqonlo

jgufisaTvis mup-is kerZo SemTxvevaa. amis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba mup

analizuri jgufebisaTvis da mSp-is komponentebisaTvis, xolo Semdgom _

mTlianad mSp-saTvis. amisTvis viyenebT paaSesa (1) da laspeiresis (2)

indeqsis tradiciul formulebs:

p

b

bp

p

i

W

WI (1) da

a

apL

pW

WiI

. (2)

sadac pi aris i-uri saqonlis fasebis indeqsia B qveyanaSi A qveyanasTan

SedarebiT;

p

p _ paaSes indeqsi;

L

p _ laspeiresis indeqsi;

Wa _ calkeuli sasaqonlo jgufis wili A qveynis mSp-Si;

Wb _ calkeuli sasaqonlo jgufisPwili B qveynis mSp- Si.

amrigad, paaSesa da laspeiresis formulebis safuZvelze Cven viRebT A

da B qveynisaTvis fasebis or saSualo indeqss. sxva sityvebiT rom

vTqvaT, Cven viRebT mup-is or sidides _ erTi miiReba, roca fasebis

indeqsis SewonvisaTvis viyenebT monacemebs A qveynis mSp-is struqturis

80

Sesaxeb, xolo meore sidide miiReba, roca viyenebT monacemebs B qveynis

mSp-is struqturis Sesaxeb.

magaliTi. davuSvaT, A da B qveynis mTliani Sida produqti Sedgeba 5

sasaqonlo jgufisagan da TiToeuli maTganisaTvis gvaqvs fasebis

saSualo indeqsi:

saqonlis

jgufebi

A qveynis mSp-is

struqtura

B qveynis mSp-is

struqtura

fasebis indeqsi,

qveyana A=1

1 jgufi 10,0 30,0 2,0

2 jgufi 20,0 15,0 1,5

3 jgufi 15,0 5,0 3,0

4 jgufi 25,0 10,0 4,0

5 jgufi 30,0 40,0 4,5

sul 100,0 100,0

amrigad, fasebis saSualo indeqsi Seadgens:

628.2

5.4

40

4

10

3

5

5.1

15

2

30

100

P

pI .

an

.

unda iTqvas, rom praqtikuli miznebisaTvis mouxerxebelia gaangariSebis

ori Sedegi, romlebic TavisTavad Teoriulad gamarTlebuli da

kanonzomieria. amitom indeqsis calsaxa mniSvnelobis misaRebad

gamoiyeneba saSualo geometriulis formula, anu fiSeris indeqsi:

p

L

p

F

p III *

3,3100

30.5,425.0,415.0,320.5,110.0,2

L

pI

81

axla Cven SegviZlia mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebis indeqsi

gavyoT fiSeris fasebis indeqsze da miviRoT saZiebeli Sedegi, e.i. A da B

qveynis mSp-ebis fizikuri moculobebis Tanafardoba:

(mSpB / mSpA) : Fp q

sadac mSpA _ A qveynis mTliani Sida produqtia sakuTar erovnul

valutaSi.

mSpB _ B qveynis mTliani Sida produqti sakuTar valutaSi.

q _ B da A qveynis mSp-s fizikuri moculobis indeqsi.

F

p _ fiSeris fasebis indeqsi.

igive Sedegi SeiZleba miviRoT sxva gziTac: gamoviyenebT ra paaSesa da

laspeiresis fasebis indeqss, orive qveynis mSp-is monacemebis mimarT

sakuTar fasebSi, SeiZleba gamoviangariSoT A qveynis mTliani Sida

produqti B qveynis fasebSi, xolo B qveynis mSp A qveynis fasebSi. am

SemTxvevaSi, Cven vRebulobT fizikuri moculobis or indeqss mocemuli

qveynebis wyvilisaTvis:

Pq

AB / mSpB - B qveynis fasebSi / mSpA - B qveynis fasebSi

qL

AB / mSpB - A qveynis fasebSi / mSpA - A qveynis fasebSi

gamoviyenebT ra fiSeris formulas, SegviZlia gaviangariSoT fizikuri

moculobis saSualo indeqsi, romelic identuri iqneba miRebuli

indeqsisa formulaSi (4):

qP

AB

qL

ABQ // *

aRsaniSnavia, rom rogorc wesi, laspeiresis formulis mixedviT

miRebuli indeqsebi gvaZlevs SedarebiT ufro did sidideebs, vidre

paaSes formuliT miRebuli indeqsebi. es fenomeni cnobilia rogorc

`gerSenkronis efeqti~ (amerikeli mecnieris _ gerSenkronis saxelis

mixedviT, romelmac gamoavlina da aRwera es kanonzomiereba).

82

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis specialistebs Soris damokidebuleba

gerSenkronis efeqtTan araerTgvarovania. erTni Tvlian, rom

`gerSenkronis efeqti~, unda movaciloT gaangariSebis Sedegs, radganac

mas aqvs cnobili uzustobani. am miznisaTvis isini gvTavazoben

indeqsebis iseT formulas, romelSic qveynebi maTi sididis miuxedavad

Tanabari `wonisaa.~ magaliTad, fiSeris formulaSi aRmofxvrilia

`gerSenkronis efeqti~ radgan Sesadari qveynebis maCveneblebi erTi da

imave wonebiTaa mocemuli.

sxva specialistebi Tvlian, rom `gerSenkronis efeqti~ gamosaxavs

movlenebis realur ekonomikur bunebas da indeqsis formulam, romelic

gamoiyeneba Sedarebis dros, ar unda aRmoifxvras es efeqti. isini

gvTavazoben saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis gamoyenebas, romelTa

sidideze sxvadasxva qveyna sxvadasxva gavlenas (magaliTad, maTi mSp-is

sididideze damokidebulebiT) axdens.

ganxilul proceduraSi sapasuxismgeblo etapia saqonlis SerCeva

identuri fasebiT.

ganasxvaveben saqonel-warmomadgenlis SerCevis or ZiriTad princips:

SerCeuli saqonlis reprezentatuloba, e.i. mocemuli qveynis

xarjebis struqturisaTvis maTi damaxasiaTebloba.

partniori qveynebis saqonel-warmomadgenelTan Sesadarisoba.

zog SemTxvevaSi Znelia am ori principis SeTavseba, ramdenadac

reprezentatuli saqoneli SeiZleba ar iyos Sesadarisi, xolo

Sesadarisi saqoneli mocemuli qveynisaTvis aradamaxasiaTebeli iyos.

amitom praqtikaSi sxvadasxva kompromiss mimarTaven.

im SemTxvevaSi, roca ori saqoneli Tvisebrivi maxasiaTeblebiT ar aris

Sesadari, mimarTaven fasebSi Sesworebis Setanis proceduras

xarisxobrivi sxvaobis gasaTvaliswineblad.

83

magaliTi, Tu gvinda SevadaroT fasebi rkinis madnis erT tonaze,

romelic Seicavs rkinis 3%-s A qveyanaSi da 6%-s _ B qveyanaSi, maSin

fasebis Sesadaris fasebad gadasayvanad saWiroa B qveynis fasebi gavyoT

orze, radgan winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, erovnuli fasebis Sedarebam, rkinis

sxvadasxva Semcvelobis madanze SeiZleba araswori warmodgena Segviqmnas

am jgufis saqonlis fasebis realuri Tanafardobis Sesaxeb.

saqonlis fasebze aseTi tipis martivi Sesworebebis gamoyenebis areali

samwuxarod Zalian SezRudulia. ufro rTuli saqonlisaTvis

(avtomanqana, televizori, macivari da a.S.) fasebSi koreqtivebis

Sesatanad, gamoiyeneba regresiuli analizis meTodebi.

regresiuli analizis meTodi gulisxmobs regresiuli gantolebis

Sedgenas, romelSic dadgenilia rTuli kavSirebi saqonlis mniSvnelovan

parametrebsa da maT fasebs Soris. Tumca bevr SemTxvevaSi, saqonel-

warmomadgenlis fasSi Sesworeba xdeba teqnikur-ekonomikuri

parametrebis mcodne, eqspertebTan konsultaciis safuZvelze.

magaliTi. avtomobilebis SemTxvevaSi regresiuli gantoleba amyarebs

kavSirs avtomobilis fassa da iseT parametrebs Soris, rogoricaa _

Zravis simZlavre, benzinis moxmareba yovel 100km. garbenze,

komfortuloba da a.S.

specialur literaturaSi am meTodma miiRo Hgedonuri indeqsis saxeli.

analogiuri saqonel-warmomadgenlis fasebiT SerCevis procesi

gulisxmobs saqonelis detalur aRweras, rac iZleva Sida bazarze

saqonel-warmomadgenelTa identifikaciis saSualebas.

saqonel-warmomadgenelTa aRwera unda moicavdes:

saqonlis kodsa da dasaxelebas.

saqonlis saerTo aRweras (samarko niSani, modeli, damzadebis

adgili da a.S.).

teqnikur parametrebs (zoma, wona, moculoba, simZlavre da a. S.).

saqonlis miznobriv daniSnulebas (misi gamoyenebis sferos).

84

naxats (gamosaxulebas).

saqonel-warmomadgenelTa fasis SerCevisas informaciis mTavari wyaro,

rogorc wesi, aris:

monacemebi samomxmareblo fasebis erovnuli indeqsis, sabiTumo

fasebis indeqsis gaangariSebebidan da a.S..

fasebis specialuri gamokvlevebi (magaliTad, bevr qveyanaSi

samrewvelo daniSnulebis saqonlis fasebze monacemebs

warmoadgenen mewarmeebi, savaWro kompaniebi da a.S.).

katalogebi.

preiskurantebi.

sasaqonlo-warmomadgenelTa Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba saSualo fasebi

mTliani ekonomikisaTvis, rac uzrunvelyofs Sesabamisobas fasebis

indeqssa da eas-Si miRebuli mSp-is Sefasebis meTodebs Soris.

Tu erTi da igive saqoneli mieyideba mosaxleobas sxvadasxva arxis

meSveobiT, sxvadasxva fasiT, saqonel-warmomadgenelTa Sesafaseblad

gaiangariSeba saSualo fasi, romelic Sewonilia Sesabamisi arxebiT

realizebuli saqonlis moculobiT. specialur literaturaSi am

principma miiRo saxelwodeba `kartofili _ es kartofilia”. es imas

niSnavs, rom ama Tu im saqonelze ori qveynis fasebis Tanafardobis

indeqsebis gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi ar miiReba sxvadasxva qveyanaSi

arsebuli savaWro-satransporto daricxvebi (danamatebi).

davuSvaT, A da B qveyanaSi X saqonlis realizacia warmoebs 5 arxiT da

fasebis doneebSi garkveuli diferenciacia arsebobs:

produqciis

miwodebis

arxebi

qveyana

A

qveyana

B

fasebis

indeqsi

A/B (B=1) Qa Pa QaPa Qb Pb QbPb

1-li arxi 20 2 40 30 1 30 2

85

2 arxi 10 4 40 20 2 40 2

3 arxi 40 3 120 40 2 80 1,5

4 arxi 15 5 75 5 2 10 2,5

5 arxi 15 6 90 5 3 15 2,0

sul 100 3,65 365 100 1,75 175 2,1

cxrilidan Cans, rom or qveyanaSi fasebis saerTo indeqsi SeiZleba

gamoangariSebul iqnes ori meTodiT: rogorc yvela arxisaTvis saSualo

fasebis Sefardeba (Ip=3,65:1,75=2,09) an realizaciis calkeuli arxisaTvis

Sesabamisi fasebis Tanafardobis gasaSualoebiT. Tu mocemul

magaliTSi gamoviyenebT saSualo geometriulis formulas, miviRebT p

5 2*5,2*5,1*2*2 =1,97.

praqtikaSi upiratesoba eniWeba pirvel midgomas, romelic Seesabameba

zemoT aRniSnul princips _ `kartofili _ es kartofilia~. Tumca

specialistebi, romlebic akritikeben am meTods, aRniSnaven, rom mis

safuZvels warmoadgens abstrahireba savaWro-satransporto danaxarjebis

doneebSi arsebuli gansxvavebisgan da fasebis indeqsis

gaangariSebisaTvis gvTavazoben fasebis indeqsis gasaSualoebis meTodis

gamoyenebas.

gaangariSebis ganxiluli procedura gamoiyeneba mSp-isa da mup-is

pirdapiri wyviladi Sedarebis dros, e.i. SepirispirebaSi, romelic

ganxorcieldeba ama Tu im qveynebis wyvilisaTvis.

mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologia

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis TeoriaSi miRebulia erTmaneTisgan

ganvasxvaoT pirdapiri wyviladi Sepirispireba da mravalmxrivi

Sepirispireba, romlebic qveynebis garkveuli jgufisaTvis erTdroulad

xorcieldeba.

86

sanam gavecnobiT mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis meTodologias,

ganvixiloT saerTaSoriso SedarebebSi gamoyenebuli indeqsebis mimarT

wayenebuli ZiriTadi moTxovnebi, romelTa didi nawili Camoyalibebulia

indeqsebis egreT wodebul aqsiomatur TeoriebSi. es moTxovnebi

formulirebulia logikuri debulebebis saxiT. maT Soris ZiriTadia:

damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom indeqsebis

gamoangariSebisas saindeqso sididis SewonvisaTvis unda gamoviyenoT

Sesadari qveynebis ekonomikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli wonebi. aSS-sa da

saqarTvelos mSp-ebis SedarebisaTvis wonebad aucilebelia

gamoviyenoT aSS-is an saqarTvelos fasebi, an aSS-isa da

saqarTvelos, da ara romelime mesame qveynis saSualo fasebi.

tranzitulobis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom ori qveynisaTvis

Sepirispirebis Sedegebi, romelic miiReba ori qveynis maCveneblebis

pirdapiri Sedarebis gziT, toli unda iyos indeqsisa, romelic

asaxavs am qveynebis maCvenebelTa Tanafardobas arapirdapiri gziT,

mesame qveynis gamoyenebiT. es mesame qveyana asrulebs `Suamavlis~

rols (gadamyvanis rols).

magaliTad, Tuki SedarebaSi monawileobs A, B da D qveyana, maSin A da B

qveynis maCveneblebis Sedarebis indeqsi SeiZleba miviRoT A da B qveynis

maCveneblebis pirdapiri SepirispirebiT da agreTve IA/D indeqsis gayofiT

IB/D indeqsze. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, tranzitulobis moTxovna

SeiZleba ase Caiweros:

DBDABA /// : .

sadac IA/B _ A da B qveynis pirdapiri Sepirispirebis indeqsia;

IA/D _ A da D qveynis pirdapiri Sedarebis indeqsi;

IB/D _ B da D qveynis pirdapiri Sedarebis indeqsi.

tranzitulobis moTxovna Zalian mniSvnelovania mravalmxrivi

SedarebisaTvis da niSnavs imas, rom, garkveuli qveynebis jgufisaTvis

gaangariSebuli, indeqsebi unda iyos mkacrad urTierTSeTanxmebuli da

ar iZleodes sawinaaRmdego Sedegebs.

87

sabaziso qveynis damoukidebeli SerCevis moTxovna _ mniSvnelovani

moTxovna, rogorc pirdapiri ormxrivi, aseve mravalmxrivi

Sedarebebisadmi. am debulebis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom indeqsis

sidide ar unda iyos damokidebuli sabaziso qveynis SerCevaze.

magaliTad, aSS-isa da saqarTvelos mTlian Sida produqts Soris

Sedareba ar unda iyos damokidebuli imaze, indeqsis SemasmenelSi

saqarTvelos indeqsi iqneba, Tu aSS-is indeqsi.

maTematikurad es moTxovna ase Caiwereba:

ABBA // * = 1.

es moTxovna niSnavs, rom indeqsebis namravli, romlebic asaxaven A

qveynis maCveneblebis Sefardebas B qveynis maCveneblebTan da, piriqiT, B

qveynis maCveneblebis Sefardebas A qveynis maCveneblebTan, unda iyos 1-is

toli.

aditiurobis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom indeqsebi, romlebic

miRebulia mSp-is calkeuli komponentebisaTvis, SeTanxmebuli unda

iyos rogorc erTmaneTTan, ise mSp-is indeqsTan mTlianad.

magaliTad, ar unda davuSvaT iseTi mdgomareoba, rodesac A qveynis

moxmarebis indeqsi B qveynis mimarT = 110, dagrovebis = 115, xolo mSp

=120.

es moTxovna gulisxmobs imas, rom A qveynis mSp-is maCvenebeli B qveynis

fasebSi SeiZleba miRebul iqnes A qveynis mSp-is calkeuli elementebis

dajamebiT B qveynis fasebSi (aRsaniSnavia, rom indeqsebis bevri meTodi

da formula saSualebas ar gvaZlevs davakmayofiloT aditiurobis

moTxovna).

faqtoruli sinjis moTxovna niSnavs imas, rom fasebis indeqsebis

(msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti) da fizikuri moculobis

indeqsebis namravli Rirebulebis indeqsis toli unda iyos.

88

zemoTqmuli zogierTi moTxovna indeqsebisadmi winaaRmdegobaSi modis

erTmaneTTan. kerZod, damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovna winaaRmdegobaSia

tranzitulobis moTxovnasTan, e.i. is indeqsebi, romlebic SedarebiT

srulad akmayofileben damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas, rogorc wesi,

aratranzitulia.

magaliTad, fiSeris indeqsis formula, romelic akmayofilebs

damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas da romelic saSualebas gvaZlevs

TiToeuli wyvili qveynisaTvis miviRoT erTmniSvnelovani Sedegi, ar

uzrunvelyofs tranzitulobis moTxovnas.

axla ganvixiloT mravalmxrivi Sedarebis meTodebi, romelTa indeqsebma

unda daakmayofilon zemoT naxsenebi moTxovnebi.

mravalmxrivi Sedarebis Tavisebureba mdgomareobs ara mxolod imaSi,

rom is tardeba qveynebis jgufisaTvis, aramed imaSic, rom informacia

qveynebis mier gamoSvebuli da gamoyenebuli produqciis raodenobisa da

fasebis Sesaxeb ganixileba da muSavdeba rogorc erTiani sistema, raTa

miRebul iqnes urTierTdakavSirebuli indeqsebis sistema, romelmac

unda daakmayofilos rigi analizuri xasiaTis moTxovna.

magaliTad, Tu vadarebT A, B, C, D da E qveynebs da maTi maCveneblebi

Seupirispirdeba erTmaneTs, wyviladi Sedarebis safuZvelze, maSin

miviRebT TiToeuli wyvili qveynisaTvis fiSeris indeqsebs _ A da B, C da

D da a.S. aseTi gaangariSebebi ar SeiZleba ganvixiloT rogorc namdvili

mravalmxrivi Sepirispireba da maTi Sedegebi SeiZleba iyos

urTierTsawinaaRmdego. SeiZleba aRmoCndes, rom A>B, B>C, C>D, xolo D>A,

radganac mocemul SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba pirdapiri wyviladi Sedarebis

meTodi, romlis Sedegad miiReba fiSeris indeqsebi da isini, rogorc

ukve aRvniSneT, aratranzitulia.

indeqsebis tranzituloba SeiZleba uzrunvelyofil iqnes mravalmxrivi

Sepirispirebis ekS-is meTodiT (am meTodis dasaxeleba Sedgeba im sami

specialistis gvaris pirveli asoebisagan, romlebmac SeimuSaves es

89

meTodi _ ungreli statistikosebi _ o. eltete da p. keveSi, poloneli

statistikosi b. Sulci).

A da B qveynisaTvis ekS-is indeqsis formulas aqvs aseTi saxe:

ekSA/B = nn

j Bj

Aj

BAF

FF

1

1

2

/

, ,, BAJ

sadac FA/B _ fiSeris indeqsia A da B qveynisaTvis.

FAj _ fiSeris indeqsi A da j qveynisaTvis.

FBj _ fiSeris indeqsi A da j qveynisaTvis.

n _ Sesadari qveynebis ricxvi.

j – A, B, C .... j.

ekS-is formulis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom miRebul iqnes iseTi

indeqsi, romelic daakmayofilebs tranzitulobis moTxovnas da mxolod

mcired iqneba gadaxrili fiSeris indeqsisagan.

SevniSnavT, rom ekS-is formulaSi mocemuli ori wyvilis qveynis (A da B)

fiSeris indeqss wonad aqvs 2. garda amisa, gaangariSebaSi

gaiTvaliswineba mocemuli qveynebis wyvilisaTvis qveyana-Suamavlis

meSveobiT, iribi gziT miRebuli fiSeris indeqsebi (magaliTad, A qveynis

indeqsi B qveynis mimarT SeiZleba miRebul iqnes fiSeris A/C indeqsis

gayofiT fiSeris B/C indeqsze).

amrigad, A da B qveynebisaTvis ekS-is indeqsi _ es aris saSualo indeqsi

A da B qveynisaTvis, romelic miRebulia fiSeris pirdapiri da

arapirdapir gaangariSebuli yvela SesaZlebeli indeqsebisagan.

magaliTad, Tu erTmaneTs Seupirispirdeba oTxi qveyana A, B, C da D, maSin

ekS-s indeqsebs Semdegi saxe eqneba:

ekSA/B = nDBDAcBcABA FFFFF ////

2

/ :.:. ;

ekSA/C = nBCBADCDAcA FFFFF ////

2

/ :.:. ;

90

ekSA/C = nCDCABDBADA FFFFF ////

2

/ :.:. ;

ekSC/D = nBDBCADACDC FFFFF ////

2

/ :.:. .

ekS-is indeqsi akmayofilebs tranzitulobisa da qveynis damoukidebeli

SerCevis moTxovnebs, magram ar akmayofilebs aditiurobis moTxovnas,

rac arsebiTad misi naklia.

ganvixiloT ekS-is gaangariSebis procedura Semdegi monacemebis

mixedviT:

saqonel-

warmomadgenlebi

X sasaqonlo

jgufisaTvis

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

qveynebi fasebi

A 2 6 _ _ 10 _ 1 4

B 12 35 3 5 40 _ _ 18

C 25 50 7 12 _ 10 _ _

D 150 400 _ 100 _ 70 80 _

Tanafardoba fasebSi saqonel-warmomadgenlebze

B/A 6 5,83 _ _ 4 _ _ 4,5

C/A 12,5 8,33 _ _ _ _ _ _

D/A 75 66,67 _ _ _ _ 80 _

C/B 2,08 1,42 2,3 2,4 _ _ _ _

D/B 12,5 11,42 _ 20 _ _ _ _

D/C 6 8 _ 8,3 _ 7 _ _

91

gaviangariSoT qveynebis TiToeuli wyvilisaTvis saSualo indeqsebi.

amisTvis gamoviyenoT saSualo geometriulis formula:

B/A = 4 5,4*4*83,5*6 =5,009; C/A = 33,8*5,12 = 10,204;

D/A = 73,682; C/B = 2,009 ; D/B = 14,186; D/C = 7,267.

miRebuli indeqsebi aratranzitulia. magaliTad, indeqsi, romelic

miRebulia A da B qveynis maCveneblebis SepirispirebiT, ar utoldeba

arapirdapiri gziT miRebuli indeqss C qveyana-Suamavlis meSveobiT:

B/A= BCAC /:/ , ekSB/A = 078,5009,2

204,10 >5,009.

rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, tranzitulobis moTxovnas akmayofilebs ekS-is

formuliT gaangariSebuli indeqsebi.

magaliTad, es indeqsi, gankuTvnili A da B qveynisaTvis, cxrilSi

mocemuli monacemebis safuZvelze, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT Semdegi saxiT:

ekSB/A = 4 2186,14/682,73*009,2/204,10*009,5 =5,072.

SevniSnavT, rom am SemTxvevaSi fesvis qveS gamoyenebulia ara fiSeris

indeqsebi, aramed saSualo geometriulebi.

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis praqtikaSi farTod gamoiyeneba, giri-

kamisis meTodi. am formulas aqvs Semdegi saxe:

i

m

j

ijm

j j

ij

qij

q

R

p

1

1

. ni ...1 .

n

i

iji

n

i

ij

j

qP

qijp

R

1

1 ,...1 mj

sadac Rj – j qveynis valutis mup im valutasTan mimarTebiT, romelic

miRebulia bazad.

iP_

_ i - ri saqonlis saSualo saerTaSoriso fasi.

Pij _ i saqonlis fasi j qveyanaSi.

92

qij _ i saqonlis raodenoba j qveyanaSi.

n _ saqonlis ricxvi.

m _ qveynebis ricxvi.

amrigad, giri-kamisis meTodi, gvaZlevs wrfivi gantolebis sistemis

amoxsnis saSualebas, ris Sedegadac erTdroulad ganisazRvreba mup (Rj )

da saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebi .)(_

iP yvela qveynis maCveneblis

gadayvana saerTaSoriso fasebSi saSualebas gvaZlevs miviRoT iseTi

indeqsebi, romlebic tranzituli, aditiuria da akmayofilebs sabaziso

qveynis arCevis damoukideblobis moTxovnas. Tumca giri-kamisis indeqsi

ar akmayofilebs damaxasiaTebeli wonebis moTxovnas.

mravalmxrivi Sedarebis kidev erTi meTodia uolSis meTodi:

BA /

_

n

i

M

BiAiR

1

/ ,

sadac RiA/B _ aris valutis mup calkeuli i sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis (igi

gamoiangariSeba rogorc martivi saSualo geometriuli A da B qveynis

saqonel-warmomadgenlebze fasebis Sefardebidan).

Mi _ i sasaqonlo jgufis wili makroagregatSi, magaliTad, mSp-Si. (Mi

gaiangariSeba rogorc SepirispirebaSi monawile yvela qveynis mocemuli

sasaqonlo jgufis wilis saSualo magaliTad, Tu A, B, C, D qveynebSi

xorcis produqtebze xarjebis wili Seadgens 5, 6 da 7-s, maSin mocemuli

sasaqonlo jgufisaTvis M=6).

avxsnaT uolSis indeqsis gaangariSebis procedura: dauSvaT, rom

SedarebaSi monawileobs sami qveyana A, B, C da yvela qveynis mSp Sedgeba

sami sasaqonlo jgufisagan. am sasaqonlo jgufebis mup-is indeqsebi da

maT xvedriT wilebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi:

sasaqonl

ojgufebi

AQqveyni

sstruq

BQqveyni

sstruq

CQqveyni

sstruq

A/BFfasebi

sindeqsebi

C/BFfasebi

sindeqsebi

saSual

ostruq

93

tura tura tura tura

I 20,0 40,0 60,0 1,5 4,0 40,0

II 30,0 40,0 20,0 2,0 6,0 30.0

III 50,0 20,0 20,0 3,0 5,0 30,0

jami 100,0 100,0 100,0 _ _ 100,0

uolSis indeqsis safuZvelze A, B, C qveynebis fasebis saSualo indeqsebis

(mup) misaRebad vaxdenT Semdeg gaangariSebebs:

;01,20,3*0,2*5,1 3,03,04,0

/ BAI .83,40,5*0,6*0,4 3,03,04,0

/ BCI

uolSis indeqsebi tranzitulia da es aris misi Rirseba. isini

akmayofileben sabaziso qveynis SerCevisgan damoukideblobis moTxovnas,

Tumca ar akmayofileben aditiurobis moTxovnas.

saerTaSoriso mravalmxrivi Sedarebis meTodia agreTve jirardis

meTodi, romelic efuZneba saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis gamoyenebas.

(isini gaiangariSeba saSualo erovnuli fasebisdan martivi saSualo

geometriulis formuliT). am meTodiT miRebuli indeqsebi akmayofilebs

tranzitulobis, aditiurobisa da sabaziso qveynis SerCevisgan

damoukideblobis moTxovnebs. jirardis formulis gamoyeneba gvaZlevs

Sepirispirebis Sedegebze `gerSenkronis efeqtis~ gavlenis Tavidan

acilebis saSualebas. magram saSualo saerTaSoriso fasebis ekonomikuri

Sinaarsi, gaangariSebuli jirardis formuliT, bundovania. miuxedavad

amisa, garkveuli periodis manZilze jirardis formulas evrostati

iyenebda evropuli qveynebis mSp-sa da mup-is Sesadareblad.

zogierT SemTxvevaSi mravalmxrivi Sepirispirebisas gamoiyeneba

centraluri qveynis meTodi. yvela qveynis mSp-is maCveneblebi

Seupirispirdeba erTi qveynis mSp-s, romelic miRebulia sabazisod

(centralurad). am SemTxvevaSi nebismieri wyvili qveynis indeqsebi

(mxolod im wyvili qveynebis gamoklebiT, romlidanac erT-erTi qveyana

94

ar gvevlineba centralur qveynad), gaiangariSeba arapirdapiri gziT am

qveynebis maCveneblebis indeqsebis centraluri qveynis maCveneblebTan

Sepirispirebis daxmarebiT.

magaliTad, Tuki SepirispirebaSi monawileobs oTxi qveyana _ A, B, C da D,

xolo centralur qveynad iTvleba A qveyana, maSin indeqsi, romelic

axasiaTebs B da C qveynis Sepirispirebis maCveneblebs, gamoiangariSeba

ase:

IB/C = IB/A : IC/A.

aseTi meTodiT miRebuli indeqsebi tranzitulia, magram tranzituloba

miiRweva garkveul wilad, meqanikuri gziT. es niSnavs imas, rom

arapirdapiri gziT gaangariSebuli indeqsi (IB/C) iqneba gansxvavebuli B da

C qveynis pirdapiri SepirispirebiT gamoangariSebuli indeqsisagan (IB/C).

garda amisa, centraluri qveynis meTodiT gaangariSebuli indeqsi ar

akmayofilebs centraluri qveynis SerCevis damoukideblobis moTxovnas.

es niSnavs imas, rom, Tu centralur qveynad arCeul iqneboda D qveyana da

ara A qveyana, maSin yvela sxva qveynis maCvenebelTa Tanafardoba

sxvanairi iqneboda. amasTan dakavSirebiT centraluri qveynis meTodi,

romelic farTod gamoiyeneba saerTaSoriso SepirispirebaSi, ar

ganixileba mravalmxrivi Sepirispirebis srulyofil meTodad. misi

gamoyeneba xdeba, ZiriTadad, sxvadasxva praqtikul SemTxvevaSi _

amomwuravi informaciis arqonis, resursebis ekonomiis da a. S. dros.

leqcia 6. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis arsi da struqtura 2. sagareo vaWrobis statistikis organizacia, ZiriTadi cnebebi da

maCvenebelTa sistema 3. sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da

maTi gaangariSebis meTodika 4. Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis maCveneblebi 5. saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo birJebi da maTi daxasiaTeba 6. saerTaSoriso koniunqturuli statistika

95

sagareoekonomikuri kavSirebis arsi da struqtura

sagareo ekonomikuri kavSiri moicavs sagareo ekonomikur saqmianobas da

sagareo vaWrobas.

sagareoekonomikuri saqminobas gaaCnia rTuli da istoriulad

ganviTarebadi xasiaTi, rac ganpirobebulia im formebis mravalsaxeobiT,

romliTac is xorcieldeba. am dros es mravelsaxeoba damokidebulia

misi istoriuli ganviTarebis doneze.

Tanamedrove sagareoekonomikuri saqmianoba xorcieldeba iseT ZiriTad

formebSi, rogoricaa sagareo vaWroba, saerTaSoriso sawarmoo

kooperacia, saerTaSoriso sainvesticio TanamSromloba, saerTaSoriso

samecniero-teqnikuri TanamSromloba, savaluto-safinanso operaciebi,

saerTaSoriso dakrediteba. mocemuli formebi dakavSirebulia

erTmaneTTan, amdenad TiToeulis ganviTareba moqmedebs danarCenze.

sagareoekonomikuri saqmianobis struqturaSi ganskuTrebuli adgili

ukavia sagareo vaWrobas. is ara mxolod martivi, istoriulad pirveli,

aramed yvelaze dinamiurad ganviTarebadi formaa, sagareo vaWrobis

roli imdend didia, rom mas xSird aigiveben mTlian sagareoekonomikur

saqmianobasTan.

sagareoekonomikur saqmianobas miekuTvneba:

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti da importi;

Sromis saerTaSoriso kooperacia;

qveynis rezidentebis erToblivi samewarmeo saqmianoba

ararezidentebTan;

samuSao Zalis transsazRvriTi moZraoba;

saerTaSoriso turizmi;

sagareo ekonomikuri satransporto, sadazRvevo, sakredito da sxva

operaciebi.

96

sagareoekonomikuri saqmianobis Sedegebi erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi

xasiaTdeba seqtori ,,danarCeni msoflios” angariSebSi. eas-is 1993 wlis

variantSi am seqtorisaTvis gamoyofilia Semdegi angariSebi:

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo angariSi;

pirveladi Semosavlebisa da mimdinare transferebis angariSi;

kapitalTan operaciebis sagareo angariSi;

finansuri angariSi;

aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis angariSi;

gadafasebis angariSi;

aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis sagareo angariSi.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo angariSi axasiaTebs saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis moZraobas qveynebs Soris. am angariSSi ganisazRvreba

damabalansebeli muxli ,,saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sagareo balansi”.

balansi SeiZleba iyos rogorc dadebiTi aseve uaryofiTi. eqsportis

importze gadametebisas saldo mocemuli qveynisaTvis iqneba dadebiTi,

e.i. xelsayreli.

pirveladi Semosavlebisa da mimdinare transferebis angariSi axasiaTebs

pirveladi Semosavlebis formirebas da mis ganawilebas sxva qveynebTan

mimarTebiT. praqtikulad, is moicavs Sida ekonomikis sam angariSs:

Semosavlebis formirebis angariSs;

pirveladi Semosavlebis formirebis angariSs;

pirveladi Semosavlebis ganawilebis angariSs.

am angariSis damabalansebeli muxlia mimdinare sagareo balansi.

dadebiTi balansi asaxavs msoflios danarCen qveynebTan mimarTebiT

mimdinare operaciebis siWarbis sidides, xolo uaryofiTi _ deficits.

kapitalTan operaciebis sagareo angariSi moicavs qveynebs Soris

mimarTebiT kapitaluri transferebisa da araaRdgeniTi, arafinansuri

aqtivebis aRricxvis operaciebs. angariSSi damabalansebel muxls

ewodeba ,,wminda dakrediteba an wminda sesxeba”.am muxlis mixedviT

dadebiTi Sedegi axasiaTebs msoflios danarCeni qveynebidan miRebuli

97

sesxebis Tanxas, xolo uaryofiTi _ mocemuli qveynis mier sxva

qveynebisaTvis gamoyofil kreditebs.

finansur angariSze aisaxeba finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis

moZraoba rezidentebisagan ararezidentebisken da piriqiT. sagareo

finansur angariSze asaxuli maCveneblebi Sida ekonomikis finansuri

angariSis maCvenebelebis identuria.

aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis angariSi asaxavs

sazRvargareT ganlagebuli rezidentebis aqtivebSi cvlilebebs

(arakompensirebuli konfiskaciebi, Camowerili uimedo valebi,

cvlilebebi klasifikaciebSi da struqturaSi). am angariSSi

damabalansebel muxls ewodeba ,,cvlilebebi sakuTar kapitalSi

aqtivebis moculobaSi danarCeni cvlilebebis Sedegad.

gadafasebis angariSi asaxavs cvlilebas aqtivebSi gamowveuls savaluto

kursebisa da fasebis cvlilebiT. masSi aisaxeba holdinguri mogebis sami

saxeoba: nominaluri holdinguri mogeba; neitraluri holdinguri

mogeba;realuri holdinguri mogeba. am angariSSi ganisazRvreba

damabalansebeli muxli _ ,,cvlilebebi sakuTar kapitalSi nominaluri

holdinguri mogebis (zaralis) Sedegad”.

aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis sagareo angariSi Sedgeba sami

balansisagan:

aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis dasawyisisaTvis;

aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis ganmavlobaSi;

aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis balansi periodis bolosaTvis.

am angariSSi ganisazRvreba damabalansebeli muxli ,,cvlileba sakuTar

kapitalSi”, rogorc sxvaoba aqtivebSi cvlilebebsa da valdebulebeSi

cvlilebebs Soris.

yvela sagareo agariSis Tavisebureba aris is, rom resursebi da

gamoyeneba aisaxema ,,danarCeni msflios” TvalsazrisiT, e.i. sxva yveynebis.

98

sagareoekonomikuri kavSirebis statistika miekuTvneba dargobrivi

statistikebis ganyofilebas.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis organizacia, ZiriTadi

cnebebi da maCvenebelTa sistema

sagareo vaWrobis statistka axasiaTebs saqonlis eqsportisa da

importis moculobas, maT dinamikas, geografiul ganlagebas, sasaqonlo

Semadgenlobas, msoflio vaWrobaSi monawileobas.

vaWrobis statistikuri dakvirvebis obieqtia saqoneli, romelic sabaJo

procedurebis wesebis Sesabamisad gadakveTavs qveynis saxelmwifo

sazRvars.

msoflio statistikur praqtikaSi saqoneli, romelic eqvemdebareba

sabaJo damuSavebas miekuTvneba xilvad saqonlTa kategorias. xilvadi

saqonliT sagareo vaWrrobis statistika aris sagareo ekonomikuri

kavSiris statistikis Semadgeneli nawili.

eqsportSi (importi) Sedis saqoneli, romelTa Semotana (gatana) zrdis an

amcirebs qveynis materialur resursebs:

saqoneli nayidi (gayiduli) mocemuli qveynis teritoriaze da

sazRvargareT organizebul bazrobebze da gamofenebze;

saqoneli, miwodebuli gaero_s teqnikuri daxmarebis fondis

xarjze, usasyidlo daxmarebis, naCuqrobis saxiT;

aramonetaruli oqro da vercxli, romelic ar gamodis

sagadasxdelo saSualebebis saxiT;

samxedro daniSnulebis saqoneli;

eleqtroenergia, wyali, saqonlis miwodeba milsadenebiT;

reeqsportuli saqoneli qveyanaSi SemotaniT;

Semotanili (gatanili) kino da tele-filmebi, licenziis CaTvliT;

mimoqcevaSi ar myofi fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi;

saqoneli Semotanili (gatanili), maTi gadamuSavebis mizniT;

99

piradi xasiaTis safosto gzavnilebi;

CamorTmeuli (konfsikacia) importuli saqoneli.

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistikisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi

Tavisebureba:

statistika aRricxas mxolod im saqonelsa da momsaxurebas,

romelic gadakveTavs sabaJo sazRvars;

statistika aRricxavs saqonlis moZraobas komerciul da

arakomerciul safuZvelze (magaliTad, qveynis mier miRebuli

humanitaruli daxmareba CairTveba importSi, xolo gacemuli _

eqsportSi) sabaJo sazRvris gavliT.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi vaWroba iyofa saerTo da specialurze. saerTo

vaWroba warmoadgens yvela komerciuli operaciebis jams. specialuri

vaWroba axasiaTebs Sida moxmarebisaTvis gankuTvnili importis

Rirebulebas, da eqsportirebuli samamulo warmoebis saqonlis

Rirebulebas.

msoflio vaWrobis regulirebis saerTaSoriso ekonomikur organizaciebs

miekuTvnebian:

vaWrobis saerTaSoriso organizacia _ gaeros specializebuli

dawesebuleba. man moqmedeba daiwyo 1995 wels da misi saqmianobis

ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze

daSvebis uzrunvelyofa.

gaeros ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis konferencia. is Seiqmna gaeros

generaluri asableis rezoluciis Tanaxmad 1964 wels gaeros

mudmivi specialuri organos saxiT. konferenciis pirveli sesia

Catarda JenevaSi;

saerTaSoriso savaWro centri Seiqmna 1964 wels vaWobisa da

tarifebis generaluri SeTanxmebis wevr qveynebis gadawyvetilebiT.

ministrTa konferencia _ saerTaSoriso organo damtkicebuli 1995

wels. konferenciis mowveva xdeba or weliwadSi erTxel.

100

amJamad gaeros CarCoebSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikis ZiriTad

samuSaos asrulebs 1960 wels Seqmnili saerTaSoriso vaWrobis

statistikis centri. is axorcielebs qveynebis sagareo vaWrobaze,

sasaqonlo da teritoril aspeqtSi, monacemebis mopovebis, damuSavebisa

da publikaciis yvela samuSaos. es centri funqcionirebs, rogorc

damoukidebeli organizacia, magram mWidro kavSiri aqvs gaeros sxva

organoebTan, da uwinaresad gaeros ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis

konferenciasTan.

sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis maxasiaTebeli

maCveneblebi da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika

sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba

maCvenebelTa sistema, romelSic Sedis Semdegi maCveneblebi:

1. saqonlis eqsporti;

2. saqonlis reeqsporti;

3. saqonlis importi;

4. saqonlis reimporti;

5. sagareo vaWrobis brunva;

6. sagareo vaWrobis saldo;

7. msoflio eqsporti;

8. msoflio importi;

9. msoflio saqonelbrunva;

10. msoflo vaWrobis saldo.

saqonlis eqsporti. saqonlis eqsportSi igulisxmeba qveynidan samamulo

warmoebis, moyvanili saqonlis, an mopovebuli mTamadneulis gatana.

samamulo warmoebis saqonels miekuTvneba aseve qveyanaSi Semotanili

ucxouri warmoSobis saqoneli, romelic iqna arsebiTad gadamuSavebuli,

ris Sedegad Seicvala misi ZiriTadi Tvisobivi an teqnikuri

daxasiaTebebi. am elementebis jami Sedagens specialur eqsports.

saqonlis reeqsporti _ sxva qveynebidan adre importirebuli saqonlis

gayidva sazRvargareT.

101

saqonlis importi _ sazRvargareTidan ucxouri warmoSobis saqonlis

Semotana. Aaq Sedis: Sida moxmarebis an gadamuSavebis mizniT Semotanili

saqoneli; sabaJo kontrolis qveS gadasamuSaveblad Semotanili

saqoneli; miweril sabaJo sawyobebSi gadasamuSaveblad Semotanili

saqoneli.

saqonlis reimporti _ sazRvargareTidan im samamulo saqonlis ukan

Semotana, romelic ar daeqvemdebara gadamuSavebas (msgavsi SeiZleba

moxdes kontraqtis romelime pirobis darRvevis mizeziT).

eqsportis moculoba, struqtura da asortimenti damokidebulia qveynis

savaluto rezervebsa da eqportis amonagebze.

qveynis eqsportSi da importSi Sedis aseve saqoneli romlis Semotana da

gatana xorcieldeba arakomerciul safuzvelze (usasyidlo daxmarebis

an naCyqrobis formiT).

sagareo vaWrobis brunva (sagareo vaWrobis saerTo saqonelbrunva). is

qveynis eqsportisa da importis jamis tolia.

sagareo vaWrobis saldo _ is eqsportis Rirebulebisa da importis

Rerebulebas Soris sxvaobaa. sagareo vaWrobis saldo SeiZleba iyos

aqtiuri an pasiuri. Paqtiuri saldos dros eqsporti Warbobs imports,

pasiurisas _ importi Warbobs eqsports. toloba eqsportisa da importis

Rirebulebebs Soris atarebs neto-balansis saxelwodebas.

msoflio eqsporti _ yvela qveynis eqsportis jami.

msoflio importi _ yvela qveynis importis jami.

RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi msoflio eqsporti da msoflio importi

erTmaneTis toli araa. es ganpirobebulia Semdegi mizeziT:

eqsportisa da importis aRricxvis drois dacilebulobiT (A

qveyanam dekembris bolos gaagzavna Tavisi saqoneli B qveyanaSi, B

qveyanam miiRo is momdevno wlis ianvrSi. maSasadame, es saqoneli A

102

qveyanis mier iqneba eqsportis moculobaSi CarTuli dekemberSi,

xolo B qveyanis mier _ importis moculobaSi ianvarSi);

RirebulebiT SefasebebSi gansxvavebebiT (eqsportis Sefaseba xdeba

FOB fasiT, importis _ CIF fasiT). F

FOB fasi moicavs:

saqonlis sakontraqto Rirebulebas;

xarjebs dakavSirebuls saqonlis gemis bortze mitanasTan;

saqonlis datvirTvas;

saeqsporto baJs.

CIF fasi moicavs Semdeg elementebs:

saqonlis Rirebulebas;

saqonlis dazRvevis xarjebs;

sazRvramde transportirebis xarjebs (fraxts).

msoflio saqonelbrunva (msoflio vaWrobis saerTo moculoba) _ esaa

msoflios yvela qveynis eqsportis jami (importis gareSe). misi

gaangariSebis aseTi wesi aixsneba imiT, rom saqonlis eqsporti yvela

qveynidan Seesatyviseba am qveynebSi saqonlis imports.

CamoTvlili absoluturi maCveneblebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba rigi

Sefardebuli maCvenebli.

eqsportuli kvota = calkeuli saqonlis eqsporti/am saqonlis warmoebis

moculoba.

amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota gamoiyeneba eqsportuli

operaciebis regulirebisaTvis, e.i. saqonlis gatanaze kontrolisaTvis.

eqsportuli kvota = qveynis eqsporti/ msoflio saqonelbrunva.

amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota axasiaTebs qveynis wils

msoflio vaWrobaSi.

103

eqsportuli kvota = qveynis eqsporti/ qveynis mSp.

amdagvarad gaangariSebuli eqsportuli kvota axasiaTebs eqsportis

mniSvnelobas qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi.

eqsportuli kvota = calkeuli saqonlis importi/mocemuli saqonlis

warmoebis moculoba.

mocemuli kvota SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes, rogorc importis

SezRudvis sazomi Sida bazris dasacavad.

eqsportuli kvota = importis Rirebuleba/ mSp.

es kvota axasiaTebs importis mniSvnelobas qveynis saxalxo meurneobaSi.

maSasadame termini ,,kvota” sagareo vaWrobaSi gamoiyeneba sami

mniSvnelobiT:

1. rogorc saqonlis Semotanisa da gatanis raodenobrivi SezRudvis

meTodi;

2. rogorc msoflio vaWrobaSi qveynis wilis maxasiaTebeli

maCvenebeli;

3. rogorc qveynis ekonomikisaTvis eqsportisa da importis

mniSvnelobis maCvenebeli.

importiT eqsportis uzrunvelyofis koeficienti = qveynis eqsporti/

qveynis importi.

Tu es maCvenebeli 1-ze metia, maSin amonagebi mTlianad faravs saWiro

saqonelis importze qveynis xarjebs da arezervebs valutis nawils.

warmoebidan eqsportis elastikurobis koeficienti = ,x

y

sadac y aris

eqsportis matebis tempi %=Si; x _ warmoebis matebis tempi %=Si;

is SeiZleba gaangariSdes mTlianad eqsportirebuli saqonlis mixedviT

(RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi) an eqsportirebuli saqonlis calkeuli

saxeobebis mixedviT (naturalur gamosaxulebaSi).

104

elstikurobis koeficienti (magaliTad calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT)

uCvenebs Tu, ramdeni procentiT gaizarda mocemuli saqonlis eqsporti

misi warmoebis erTi procentiT gadidebisas.

msoflo vaWrobis saldo esaa sxvaoba msoflio eqsportisa da importis

jamebs Soris. is yovelTvis uaryofiTia im mizeziT, rom eqsporti

aRiricxeba FOB fasebiT, xolo importi _ CIF fasebiT. CIF metia FOB-ze

fraxtisa da dazRvevis RirebulebiT.

saerTaSoriso SedarebisaTvis yvelaze gamoyenebadia sagareo vaWrobis

brunvis moculobis naturaluri maCveneblebi.

msoflio vaWrobaSi brunvadi saqonlis umetesoba gaizomeba wonis

erTeulebSi: tona, centneri, kilogrami, inglisuri funti. es iZleva,

sxvadsxva qveyanaSi erTi da igive saqonlis mixedviT gamoyenebuli

sazomi erTeulebis arsebiTi gansxvavebebisas, erTgvarovani informaciis

miRebis saSualebas.

am dros saqoneli SeiZleba aRiricxos: bruto woniT (saqonlis wona

gare da Siga tariT); neto woniT (saqonlis wona gare da Siga taris

gareSe, Tumca uaxloesi Sida SefuTva, romelic gadadis momxmarebelTan

saqonelTan erTad, aRiricxeba neto wonaSi).

neto wona yvelaze misaRebia ekonomikuri analizisaTvis da sxvadasxva

qveynisTis erTi da igive saqonlis gayidvebis Sepirispirebis

gansaxorcieleblad, xolo bruto wona gadazidvebis saerTo moculobis

analizisas.

realizebuli saqonlis raodenobrivi aRricxva naturalur

gamosaxulebaSi saWiroa:

sxvadasxva balansis Sedarebisas;

sagareo vaWrobis fasebis indeqsebis gasangariSeblad;

saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis.

105

garda wonis gazomvis erTeulebisa eqsportirebuli da importirebuli

saqonlis aRricxva warmoebs, mxolod calkeuli saqonlisTvis

damaxasiaTebel, gazomvis specifiur erTeulebSi – danadgari – calebSi,

xe-tyis masala _ kubur metrSi da a.S.

gazomvis erTeulebi, romelSic unda aRiricxos konkretuli saqoneli

miTiTebulia sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo

nomenklaturaSi.

Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis maCveneblebi

sagareo vaWrobis brunvis moculoba damokidebulia Sromis

saerTaSoriso danawilebaze. mis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba Semdegi

maCveneblebi:

1. Sromis saerTaSoriso danawilebis dinamikis koeficienti =

eqsportis dinamikis indeqsi/warmoebis moculobis dinamikis

indeqsTan.

2. saeqsporto specializaciis koeficienti = qveynis eqsportis

saerTo moculobaSi calkeuli saqonlis eqsportis wili/am

saqonlis msoflio eqsportis wili msoflio eqsportis saerTo

moculobaSi.

saeqsporto specializaciis koeficienti uCvenebs, Tu ramden jer

aRemateba romelime saxeobis saqonlis eqsportSi mocemuli qveynis wili

am saqonlis wils msoflio eqsportSi.

Tu mocemuli maCvenebeli 1-ze metia, es metyvelebs imaze, rom mocemuli

qveyana specializdeba msoflio meurnebaSi am saqonlis warmoebaze da

gayidvaze. ramdenad is maRalia, imdenad didia specializaciis done.

3. diversifikaciis koeficienti = qveynis eqsportis saerTo

moculobaSi saqonlis eqsportis wili _ msoflio eqsportis

saerTo moculobaSi saqonlis msoflio eqsportis wili.

106

es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs qveynis CarTulobas msoflio vaWrobaSi da

SeiZleba varirebdes 0-dan 1-mde. Tu misi zoma uaxlovdeba 1-s, maSin

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom qveyana specializdeba mocemuli saqonlis

warmoebaze. qveynis mier eqsportirebuli saqonlis nomenklaturis

gafarToebis SemTxvevaSi diversifikaciis koeficienti dauaxlovdeba 0-s.

4. qveynis wili msoflio vaWrobaSi = qveynis sagareo vaWrobis

saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculoba/msoflio saqonelbrunvis saerTo

moculoba.

es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs qveynis monawileobas msoflio ekonomikaSi.

5. sagareo savaWro brunvis moculoba erT sul mosaxleze = qveynis

sagareo vaWrobis saqonelbrunvis saerTo moculoba/mosaxleobis

saSualo ricxovnobasTan

eqsportisa da importis struqtura SeiZleba Seswavlili iqnes ori

mimarTulebiT:

rogorc sasaqonlo struqtura;

rogorc geografiuli struqtura.

sasaqonlo struqtura esaa yoveli saqonlis, TiToeuli sasaqonlo

poziciis wili eqsportisa da importis moculobaSi.

eqsportis sasaqonlo struqtura asaxavs msoflio bazris koniunqturas,

e.i. msoflio bazarze mocemuli qveynis saqonelze moTxovnas. eqsportis

struqturis analizisas mniSvnelovania sxvadsxva qveynebSi yvelaze

mniSvnelovani saeqsporto saqonlis xvedriTi wonebis Sedareba.

ganviTarebul qveynebSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani saqonlis xvedriTi wona

ar aRemateba 10-20%. TiToeuli qveynis eqsportis da importis sasaqonlo

struqtura damokidebulia msoflio bazaris fasebze da savaluto

rezervebze.

eqsportis da importis sasaqonlo struqturis analizTan erTad aseve

Seiswavleba maTi geografiuli struqtura.

107

geografiuli struqtura _ esaa calkeuli qveynebis, qveynebis jgufebis,

kontinentebis wili eqsportisa da importis moculobaSi.

geografiuli struqturis Seswavlisas yvela qveyana socialur-

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis donis mixedviT iyofa sam jgufad:

qveynebi ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikiT;

qveynebi ganviTarebadi ekonomikiT;

qveynebi gardamavali ekonomikiT.

sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli struqtura iZleva saSualebas

gaanalizdes:

qveynebis sagareo ekonomikur kavSirebSi maTi orientacia;

qveynis sagareo vaWrobis wili;

qveynebi da qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT eqsportisa da importis

ganviTarebis done da SesaZleblobebi;

Sromis saerTaSori danawilebaSi calkeuli qveynis monawileobis

done.

saqonlis eqsporisa da importis geografiuli ganawileba xorcieldeba

qveynebis mixedviT:

warmoebis (warmoSobis) qveyana _ momxmarebeli (daniSnulebis)

qveyana;

gagzavnis qveyana _ miwodebis qveyana;

gayidvis qveyana _ yidvis qveyana.

es dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom sagareo vaWrobaSi brunvadi saqoneli

SeiZleba iqnes nayidi da gayiduli ramdenime jer.

pirvel SemTxvevaSi importosa da eqsportis geografiuli ganawileba

xorcieldeba qveynebis mixedviT warmoSobisa da moxmarebis niSnis

Sesabamisad.

daniSnulebis M(momxmarebeli) qveyana _ qveyana, romelic gagzavnis

momentSi cnobilia, rogorc bolo yveyana, romelSic saqoneli

gankuTvnilia moxmarebis, gamoyenebis an Semdgomi gadamuSavebisaTvis.

108

warmoSobis (warmoebis) qveyana _ qveyana, romelSic saqoneli

warmoebulia an gadamuSavebulia moyvanilia s/m produqtebi, mopovebulia

mTamadneuli, xolo mza nakeTobibi warmoebulia mTlianad an

nawilobriv. im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac nakeTobibi warmoebulia

nawilobriv, maSin warmoSobis qveynad miiCneva qveyana romelSic

saqonelma gaiaraadamuSavebis bolo etapi.

gayidvis qveyana _ yidvis qveyana _ qveyana, romlis teritoriaze

mdebareobs saqonlis myidveli an gamyidveli firma an organizacia,

miuxedavad misi erovnuli kuTvnilebisa.

specialuri miznebisaTvis Seiswavleba eqsportisa da importis

struqtura satransporto gadazidvebis saxeobebis mixedviT: saxmeleTo,

sazRvao, sahaero.

eqsportisa da importis geografiuli mimarTuloba Seiswavleba, aseve E

Semdeg aspeqtSi:

qveyana _ saqoneli (qveynebis CaminaTvali, romlisgan nayidia an

romlebzec, TiToeuli poziciis mixedviT, gaiyida saqoneli);

saqoneli _ qveyana (TiToeul yveyanasTan saqonelgacvlis sruli

nomenklatura).

es monacemebi iZleva, rogorc geografiul aseve sasaqonlo aspeqtSi,

struqturuli cvlilebebis analizirebis saSualebas.

saerTaSoriso sasaqonlo birJebi da maTi daxasiaTeba

sabazro ekonomikis mimoqcevis sferos erT-erTi ZiriTadi elementia

sasaqonlo birJa. sasaqonlo birJa aris masobrivi saqonliT sabiTumo

vaWrobis organizaciuli forma. es aris iuridiuli an fizikuri pirebis

nebayoflobiTi gaerTianeba sajaro vaWrobisaTvis gansazRvrul adgilsa

da gansazRvrul droSi.

sasaqonlo birJis ZiriTadi funqciebia:

109

birJis meSveobiT sarealizacio saqonlis standartebis SemuSaveba;

yidva-gayidvis garigebebis mixedviT tipuri kontraqtebis paketis

SemuSaveba;

birJaze ralizebad saqonelze fasebis kotireba (sabirJo vaWrobis

wesiT realizebadi saqonlis fasebis fiqsacia, da gansazRvruli

periodis ganmavlobaSi sabirJo garigebebis mixedviT saSualo

fasebis gamoyvana);

msyidvelobiTi moTxovnis Seswavla da prognozireba;

gacvlis proporciebisa da fasebis stabilizaciisaTvis pirobebis

Seqmna;

urTierTxelsayrelobas dafuZvebuli saqonelgacvliTi

operaciebis organizacia, realuri moTxovnisa da miwodebis

gaTvaliswinebiT;

informaciuli saqmianoba (sabirJo vaWrobis monawilebisaTvis da

sxva daintreresebul pirTaTvis komerciuli da birJaze

realizebad saqonelze sxva informaciis miwodeba).

sasaqonlo birJebi klasificirdeba Semdegi niSnebis mixedviT:

1. saqmianobis xasiaTis mixedviT, e.i. daniSnulebis mixedviT:

specializebuli, romlebic specializdeba realuri saqonlis

romelime saxeobaze: yava, Saqari, kakao, bamba, navTobi, liToni

da a.S. (londonis bambis birJa).

universaluri, romlebic axorcieleben ara mxolod operaciebs

saqonliT, aramed faseulobebiT, romlebic Cveulebrivi gagebiT

ar arian saqoneli _ valutiT, ipoTekiT fasiani qaRaldebiT,

fraxtuli kontraqtebiT da a.S. (niu-iorkis safondo birJa).

2. sabirJo vaWrobaze damTvalierebelTa doniT:

Ria (vaWrobaSi, garda brokerebisa monawileobas Rebuloben

damTvaliereblebi;

daxuruli (vaWrobaSi monawileobas Rebuloben mxolod sabirJo

Suamavlebi). sazRvargareT Tanamedrove sasaqonlo birJebi

ZiriTadad daxurulia.

3. birJis Seqmnis miznis mixedviT:

110

momgebiani birJebi, romlebic iswrafvian miiRon mogeba;

aramogebiani birJebi, vaWrobis organizebisaTvis xelsayreli

pirobis Semqmnelni. Aaramomgebian birJebs, Semosavlebis

xarjebze metoba, kanoniT dadgenili gadasaxadebis gamoklebiT,

SeuZliaT gamoiyenon mxolod birJis sakuTari saWiroebisTvis.

4. sabirJo garigebebis xasiaTis mixedviT:

garigebebi realuri saqonliT. realuri saqonlis birJaze

kontraqtebis gayidva iTvaliswinebs misi miwodebis valdebulebas.

realuri saqonliT birJebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSani:

vaWrobis ganaxlebis regularoba, vaWrobis ganxorcielebis

adgilis stabiluroba, dadgenili wesebisadmi upirobo

daqvemdebarebuloba;

vadiani garigebebi realuri saqonliT momavalSi saqonlis

savaldebulo miwodebiT (forvarduli garigeba). forfarduli

garigeba iTvaliswinebs realuri saqonlis miwodebas garigebis

dadebis momentSi arsebuli fasebiT winaswar daTqmul vadebSi.

aseTi garigebebi qmnian fasebis sxvaobaze TamaSis SesaZleblobas.

fiuCersuli garigebebi (garigeba xorcieldeba ara saqonelTan,

aramed saqonlze uflebiT). aseT birJaze vaWroba xorcieldeba

fiuCersuli kontraqtebiT momavalSi warmoebuli saqonlis

realizaciaze. sazRvargareTSi moqmedi birJebis umetesoba

fiuCersulia.

individualuri xasiaTis matarebeli forfarduli kotraqtisgan

gansxvavebiT, fiuCersuli kontraqti aris standartuli kontraqti.

fiuCersuli kontraqti sruldeba ara saqonlis miwodebiT aramed

kontraqtis likvidaciiT.

fiuCersuli damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSnebi;

garigebebis fiqtiuri xasiaTi, romelic sruldeba fasebSi sxvaobis

gadaxdiT, da garigebebis mxolod umniSvnelo nawili _ realuri

saqonlis miwodebiT;

111

kontraqtis yvela pirobebis (garda fasebisa) unificireba

miwodebis vadebTan da adgilTan, miwodebisTvis nebadarTuli

saqonlis raodenobasTan mimarTebiT;

garigebebis gaupirovneboba, vinaidan isini ideba ara konkretul

myidvelsa da gamyidvels Soris;

arapirdapiri kavSiri realuri saqonlis bazarTan _ hejirebis

meSveobiT da ara saqonlis miwodebiT; hejireba _ fasismieri

riskebisgan dazRvevis formaa, Cveulebriv xorcieldeba

fiuCersuli kontraqtis yidvis an gayidvis Sedegad.

5. saqmianobis sferos mixedviT:

saerTaSoriso, momsaxurebas uweven msoflio sasaqonlo bazrebs;

erovnuli, momsaxurebas uweven erovnul sasaqonlo bazrebs.

saerTaSoriso sabirJo vaWrobis mniSvnelovani centrebi ganlagebulia

aSS-Si, iaponiaSi, inglisSi. yvelaze msxvili birJebia niu-iorkis bambis

birJa, niu-iorkis yavis birJa, londonis saerTaSoriso navTobis birJa,

tokios savaWro birJa.

birJebze sabiTumo vaWroba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes sabirJo an

arasabirJo saqonliT. sabirJo saqonels miakuTvneben masaobrivi

warmoebis saqonels, romlebisTvis damaxasiaTebelia Semdegi niSnebi:

Tvisobrivi erTgvarovnoba;

Tvisobrivi daxasiaTebebis Sesadarisoba drois xangrZlivi

periodis ganmavlobaSi;

saqonlis partiebis urTierTSemcvleloba, rac iZleva vaWrobis

saSualebas xarisxis aRweriT an nimuSebiT, saqonlis winaswari

daTvalierebis gareSe.

1950 wlamde sabirJo saqonlad iTvleboda mxolod ara swraffuWadi

saqoneli. mecnierul-teqnikuri progresiis miRwevebma SesaZlebeli

gaxada sabirJo brunvaSi swraffuWadi produqciis calkeuli saxeobebis

CarTva.

112

aRsaniSnavia, rom garda xilvadi saqonlisa saqonlad iTvleba

araxilvadi faseulobebi (uflebebi, procentebi), amasTan dakavSirebiT

Tanamedrove birJebze xorcieldeba vaWroba araxilvadi faseulobebiT

(fasebis indeqsebiT, sabanko procentebiT da a.S.).

tradiciulad sabirJo saqonels miekuTvneba: soflis meurneobis

produqcia, mineraluri nedleuli, marcvleuli, Saqari, kauCuki, feradi

liTonebi, navTbproduqtebi. idealSi sabirJo saqoneli aris is saqoneli,

romelmac gaiara mxolod pirveladi gadamuSaveba. standarizacia qmnis

sabirJo saqonlis mTavar niSans.

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis erT-erTi formaa auqcioni. auqcioni warmoadgens

saqonlis gayidvas specialurad gamoyofil adgize. am dros saqonlis

gayidva xorcieldeba myidvelTa Tavisufali konkurenciis safuZvelze.

auqcionze iyideba viwro specializaciis saqoneli: bewveuli, Tambaqo,

Cai, jiSiani pirutyvi, xelovnebis nawarmoebebi soTbi (inglisi).

auqcionze saqoneli formdeba lotebSi. saqoneli xvdeba im myidvels,

romelic lotSi gadaixdis yvelaze maRal fass.

aresebobs auqcionis Catarebis mravali xerxi. erT-erTi maTgania

holandiuri sqema: vaWroba iwyeba maRali fasiT, romelic Semdeg

klebulobs manmade, sanam vinme ar gamoTqvams saqonlis yidvis survils

bolo fasiT.

msoflio sasaqonlo barJebis regulirebas axorcieleben sxvadasxva

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi.

bazris koniunqturis stabilizaciis erT-erTi elementia saerTaSoriso

sasaqonlo SeTanxmebebi, romlebic warmoadgenen maravalmxriv

samTaroboTaSoriso xelSekrulebebs, mimarTuls msoflio bazrebze

fasebis stabilizaciaze, moTxonasa da miwodebas Soris Tanafardobis

dadgeniT.

113

saerTaSoriso koniunqturuli statistika

koniunqturuli statistika warmoadgens mimdinare statistikas, romlis

amocanaa ekonomikur ryevebze Tvalisdevna. koniunqturuli statistikis

roli imdenad didia, ramdenadac naklebia saxelmwifos Carevis roli

ekonomikis regulirebaSi. mas yvelaze didi mniSvneloba aqvs

ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikaSi, da uwinaresad aSS-Si.

koniunqturuli statistika iTvlis asobiT maCvenebels. Cven SevCerdebiT

ZiriTad maTganze.

ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebis mTavari amocana mdgomareobs

mosalodnel aRmavlobaze an dacemaze drouli gafrTxilebis

mcdelobaSi, bolo SemTxvevaSi aseTi maCveneblebi asruleben gangaSis

signalis rols.

gamafrTxilebeli ekonomikuri signalebis sistemis SemuSavebis

adrindeli mcdelobebidan yvelaze cnobilia egreT wodebuli harvardis

barometris agebis mcdeloba (1917_1933ww.). marTalia am barometris

meSveobiT ar iqna SesaZlebeli im didi depresiis winaswarganWvreta,

romelic 1929_1933ww. daatyda aSS ekonomikas, Tumca kvlevebi am dargSi

gagrZelda. 1966 wlidan aSS oficialuri statistika yovelTviurad

aqveynebs monacemebs ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebis cvlilebebze.

aSS-Si ekonomikuri ciklis indikatorebi iyofa sam jgufad: winswrebi,

TanTxveviTi da dagvianebuli.

winswrebi indikatorebi TamaSoben mTavar rols, ramdenadac asruleben

gamafrTxilebeli signalebis rols. maCvenebelTa SerCeva winswrebi

indikatorebis jgufSi xorcieldeba, empiriuli gziT, maCvenebelTa

dinamikasa da ekonomikuri ciklis ryevebs Soris urTierTkavSirebis

analizis safuZvelze. yvelaze saimedo winswrebi indikatorebis

safuZvelze xdeba winswreb maCvenebelTa saerTo indeqsis ageba.

114

maCvenebelTa nakrebi, romlis safuZvelze aigeba es indeqsi droTa

ganmavlobaSi ganaxlebas eqvemdebareba.

1991 wels winswrebi maCvenebelTa saerTo indeqsis komponentebad

gamoiyeneboda ekonomikuri ciklis 11 maCvenebeli: damamuSavebeli

mrewvelobis muSakis mier kviris ganmavlobaSi namuSevari saaTebis

saSulo raodenoba; umuSevrobaze sadazRvevo Semweobis gacemaze

gancxadebebis saSualokvireuli raodenoba; adgilobrivi xelisuflebis

mier gacemuli axali sacxovrisis mSeneblobaze miRebuli licenziis

ricxvi; aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an fure”);

samomxmareblo molodinis ideqsi; warmoebis, vaWrobis da fuladi

mimoqcevis mdgomareobis maxasiaTebeli rigi sxva indikatorebi.

magaliTad, Tu es indeqsi mcirdeba sami Tve zedized Tvlian, rom

gangaSis signali iyo da axlo momavalSi SeiZleba daiwyos dacema.

dawyebuli 1965 wlidan yovel dacemas winuswrebda winswreb maCvenebelTa

saerTo indeqsis daweva. miuxedavad amisa prognozis sizuste am indeqis

safuZvelze ar iyo 100%-ani. 1965_1987ww ganmavlobaSi orjer hqonda

adgili indeqsis dawevas da mas dacema ar moyolia. mTlianobaSi ikveTeba

prognozirebis mravli meTodisTvis damaxasiaTebeli situacia, _ isini

muSaoben manam, sanam finansur sistemas ar emarTeba rame araCveulebrivi,

igulisxmeba sxva maCveneblebTan SekavSirebis gareSe calkeuli

maCveneblebis intensiuri winswrebi ganviTareba. magaliTad, winswrebi

maCveneblebis saerTo indeqsiT micemul erT-erT cru signals adgili

hqonda vetnamis omis periodSi, ramdenadac iyo masTan dakavSirebuli

aSSi-s samxedro xarjebic.

ganviTarebul qveynebSi samrewvelo warmoebis moculobebis dinamikis

maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba, rogorc ekonomikis calkeuli dargebis

samrewvelo warmoebis maxasiaTebeli indeqsebisgan saSualo Sewonilebi.

umetes SemTxvevaSi Sewonva xdeba laspeiresis indeqsiT.

aSS-Si fasiani qaRaldebis dinamikis maxasiaTebeli cnobili indeqsebia

dou-jonsis indeqsi, aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an

fure”) da niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis saerTo indeqsi.

115

birJis muSaobis saaTebSi maCvenebelTa ryevebze axali informaciis

miwodeba xdeba yovel xuT wuTSi. statistikur gamocemebSi Cvulebriv

qveyndeba yovelTviuri saSualoebi.

dou-jonsis indeqsis yvelaze cnobili varianti gaiangariSeba 30 msxvili

samrewvelo firmis aqciebis kursis mixedviT (magdonaldsi, filif

morisi, boingi, jeneral motorsi da sxva.). Tavdapirvelad indeqsi

warmoadgenda aqciebis kursebis martiv saSualo ariTmetikurls, Tumca

Semdgom gaangariSebis meTodikaSi Setanili iqna indeqsze moqmedi, aqciis

danawevrebis procesis amsaxveli, cvlilebebi. ZiriTadi yuradRba eqceva

maCveneblis dinamikas. dou-jonsis indeqsis absoluturi maCveneblebi ki

(magaliTad, saSualod 1990 wlis ianvaris ganmavlobaSi 2679,24 da 2587,60

1991 wlis ianvaris ganmavlobaSi) asaxaven bolo aswleulis ganmavlobaSi

aqciebis kursebis gasaSuloebul zrdas. aSS-is statistikaSi dou-jonsis

indeqsi uwinaresad ganixileba, rogorc ekonomikuri koniunqturis

moklevadiani ryevebis analizis instrumenti.

Tu dou-jonsis indeqsi izrdeba, izrdeba aqciis SefardebiTi fasi, maSin

kapitalis meanabreebi varaudoben aqciebis mixedviT didi dividendebis

miRebas, da es metyvelebs saqmiani aqtivobis zrdaze. dou-jonsis

indeqsis vardna axasiaTebs qveyanaSi saqmiani aqtivobis Semcirebas. am

maCveneblis sidide ganisazRvreba birJaze aqciebis fasebis procentuli

SefardebiT maT nominalur fasTan (gamoSvebisas sawyis fasTan) misi

sidide damokidebulia ar mxolod saqmian aqtivobaze, aramed aqvs zrdis

saerTo tendencia inflaciis, aSS-is dolaris myidvelobiTi unaris

dacemis gamo. ramdenadac saukunis dasawyisSi es zrda iyo Zalian

mniSvnelovani, amJamad dou-jonsis indeqsi Seadgens 2000%-ze mets

(rodesRac gamoSvebuli 100 dolaris Tanxis aqcia exla Rirs 2000

Tanamedrove dolari).

aqciis kursis saerTo indeqsi (indeqs ,,Standard an fure”) ganazogadebs 500

korporaciis aqciebis kursebze monacemebs. amis gamo is kargad

aaproqsimirebs niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis aqciebis kurss. is moicavs

mrewvelobis sxvadasxva dargebis warmomadgeneli (transporti _20%,

116

momsaxurebis sfero _40%0, finansuri sfero _40%) ara mxolod msxvili,

aramed mcire korporaciebis aqciebs.

niu-iuiorkis safondo birJis saerTo indeqsi moicavs masSi

daregistrirebul yvela firmas da amitom iTvleba am birJis yvelaze

srul maxasiaTeblad.

leqcia 7. sagadasaxdelo balansi

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. sagadasaxdelo balansis safuZvlebi 2. sagadasaxdelo balansSi gamoyenebuli fasebi 3. operaciebis registraciis dro 4. aRricxvis savaluto erTeuli 5. sagadasaxdelo balansisa da saerTaSoriso

sainvesticio poziciis klasifikaciebi 6. mimdinare operaciebis angariSi 7. saqonlis eqsportisa da importis Sefaseba

sagadasaxdelo balansis safuZvlebi

sagadasaxdelo balansi makroekonomikuri analizisa da prognozirebis

umniSvnelovanesi instrumentia. sb-s monacemebi asaxaven mimdinare

periodSi sagareo vaWrobis ganviTarebas, romelic uSualo zemoqmedebas

axdens erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursze, warmoebis doneze, dasaqmebasa

da moxmarebaze. misi saSualebiT SeiZleba Tvali gavadevnoT, Tu ra

formiTa da ra moculobiT unda ganxorcieldes investireba qveyanaSi,

agreTve mis sazRvrebs gareT, droulad xdeba Tu ara sagareo valis

dafarva, hqonda Tu ara adgili valis gadavadebasa da

restruqturizacias. sb-is erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi analizuri

maCvenebelia oqrosa da savaluto rezervebis cvlileba, romelic

centraluri bankisaTvis erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursis

regulirebis saSualebaa.

117

sb aqtiurad gamoiyeneba savaluto kursis, sabiujeto da fulad-

sakredito politikis SemuSavebisaTvis, savaluto da sagareo vaWrobis

regulirebisaTvis. igi agreTve gvevlineba eas-is sainformacio wyarod.

pirvelad ekonomikur literaturaSi termini ,,sagadasaxdelo balansi”

gamoiyena j. stiuartma 1767 wels naSromSi ,,gamokvleva politikuri

ekonomiis principebis Sesaxeb”. Tavdapirvelad sb-s ukavSirebdnen

mxolod sagareo vaWrobis saldosa da masTan dakavSirebul oqros

moZraobas.

miuxedavad imisa, rom XIX saukuneSi farTovdeboda sagareo-ekonomikuri

operaciebis speqtri, XX saukunemde ar arsebobda erTiani Sexeduleba im

operaciebis Sesaxeb, romlebic unda asaxuliyo sb-Si. kapitalis

saerTaSoriso bazris gafarToebasTan erTad dadga sakiTxi

sagadasaxdelo balansis saxelmwifo regulirebis Sesaxeb da gaCnda

saerTaSoriso operaciebis sistematuri aRricxvis meTodebis SemuSavebis

aucilebloba. sb-is pirveli oficialuri gamoqveyneba moxda 1923 wels

aSS-is vaWrobis saministros mier. am balansSi yvela operacia sam

jgufad iyo dayofili: mimdinare, kapitaluri da operaciebi oqroTi da

vercxliT.

sb-is meTodologiis SedgenaSi udidesi wvlili Seitana erTa ligam. 1943

wels amerikelma ekonomistma lerim Seadgina aSS-is retrospeqtuli sb

1919-1939 wlebisaTvis da es samuSao safuZvlad daedo aSS-s sb-is

Sedgenas meore msoflio omis Semdeg. 1947 wels gaerom gamoaqveyna erTa

ligis mier SemuSavebuli sb-is sqema. sb-is meTodologiis Semdgomi

ganviTareba ukavSirdeba ssf-is mier gaweul muSaobas, romelic aqveynebs

saxelmZRvaneloebsa da rekomendaciebs.

sagadasaxdelo balansi aris statistikuri sistema, romelSic aisaxeba

yvela operacia mocemuli qveynis ekonomikasa da danarCeni msoflios

qveynebis ekonomikebs Soris drois garkveul periodSi (Tve, kvartali,

weli).

118

ganmartebaSi igulisxmeba, rom aRniSnuli operaciebi xorcieldeba

instituciur erTeulebs Soris, rogoricaa: sawarmoebi, finansuri

institutebi, saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi, fizikuri pirebi da

a.S.

aRsaniSnavia, rom sb principulad gansxvavdeba buRaltruli aRricxvis

balansisagan, romelic warmoadgens konkretuli ekonomikuri erTeulis

aqtivebisa (kapitalis gamoyenebis saxeebi) da pasivebis (finansuri

resursebi) CamonaTvals gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis. rac Seexeba

statistikur sistemas, romelSic aisaxeba rezidentebis yvela finansuri

aqtivi (an moTxovna) da rezidentebis valdebulebebi ararezidentebis

mimarT garkveuli TariRisaTvis, mas ewodeba saerTaSoriso sainvesticio

pozicia (ssp).

sb-is monacemTa gamoqveyneba xorcieldeba dinamikaSi, risTvisac

gamoiyeneba Semdegi cxrili:

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Tu sb-is monacemebi qveyndeba raime erTi periodisaTvis, SeiZleba

agreTve gamoviyenoT Semdegi gamosaxuleba, romelic klasikurad

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muxli N

119

sb agebulia buRaltruli aRricxvis Semdeg principze: TiToeuli

operacia aisaxeba orjer _ erTi angariSis kreditSi da meore angariSis

debetSi. am wess martivi ekonomikuri interpretacia aqvs: ekonomikur

operaciaTa umravlesoba ekonomikuri faseulobebis gacvlis safuZvelze

xorcieldeba.

magaliTad, qarTuli sawarmo Rvinis eqsportirebisas samagierod iRebs

ucxour valutas. Tu eqsportma Seadgina 100 000 dolari, maSin es

operacia saqarTvelos sb-Si Semdegnairad aisaxeba:

aTasi dol.

saqoneli 100

ucxouri valuta -100

saerTo saldo 0

Tu ekonomikuri faseulobebis (saqoneli, momsaxureba, finansuri

aqtivebi) gacvla Semxvedri nakadis gareSe xdeba, sb-Si Semodis

gansakuTrebuli muxli _ ,,transfertebi”.

davuSvaT, saqarTvelom danarCeni qveynebidan miiRo 10 mln.

dolaris Rirebulebis saqoneli humanitaruli daxmarebis saxiT.

saqarTvelos sb-Si aucilebelia gakeTdes Semdegi gatarebebi:O

mln. dol.

saqoneli -10

transfertebi 10

saerTo saldo 0

zemoaRniSnulidan cxadia, rom kreditis yvela gatarebebis jami debetis

gatarebebis toli unda iyos, xolo saerTo saldo _ nulis toli.

miuxedavad amisa, praqtikaSi TiTqmis arasodes ar xerxdeba balansis

miRweva im mizezis gamo, rom monacemebis miReba erTi da imave operaciis

sxvadasxva aspeqtis Sesaxeb sxvadasxva wyarodan xdeba.

120

magaliTad, saqonlis eqsportis Sesaxeb monacemebis miReba xdeba sabaJo

samsaxurebidan, xolo sawarmos angariSze ucxouri valutis moZraobis

Sesaxeb informacia miiReba sabanko statistikidan.

gansxvavebebs sakredito da sadebeto gatarebebs Soris ewodeba wminda

Secdomebi da gamotovebebi. im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu es maCvenebeli

SedarebiT mcirea, es ar niSnavs, rom Secdomebisa da gamotovebebis

absoluturi mniSvneloba mcirea, radgan urTierTsawinaaRmdego niSniT

gadaxrebi erTmaneTs abaTileben.

davuSvaT, saqonlis eqsporti asaxuli iyo ,,saqonlis” angariSis

kreditSi. es gvaZlevs saSualebas nebismieri operacia avsaxoT Sesabamisi

angariSis kreditSi an debetSi (cxrili 8.1):

cxrili 8.1

operaciebis asaxvis wesi sb-Si kreditsa da debetSi:

operaciebi krediti, + debeti, _

A. saqoneli da momsaxureba

saqonlis eqsporti da momsaxurebis eqsporti

(momsaxurebis gaweva rezidentebisaTvis) +

saqonlis importi da momsaxurebis importi

(momsaxurebis gaweva ararezidentebisaTvis) -

B. Semosavlebi (Sromis anazRaureba da

investiciuri Semosavlebi)

Semosulobebi ararezidentebisagan +

gadaxdebi ararezidentebisaTvis -

C. transfertebi (mimdinare da

kapitaluri)

miReba +

121

gadacema -

D. arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis

Sesyidva / gayidva

aqtivebis gayidva +

aqtivebis Sesyidva -

F. operaciebi finansuri aqtivebiTa da

valdebulebebiT

valdebulebebis zrda ararezidentebis mimarT +

moTxovnebis Semcireba ararezidentebis

mimarT +

moTxovnebis zrda ararezidentebis mimarT -

valdebulebebis Semcireba ararezidentebis

mimarT -

sagadasaxdelo balansSi gamoyenebuli fasebi

sb-Si operaciebi aisaxeba sabazro fasebSi. sb-is saxelmZRvanelos

Tanaxmad: sabazro fasi aris Rirebuleba, romelsac uxdian myidvelebi

gamyidvelebs raimes SesaZenad im pirobiT, rom am garigebaSi orive mxare

damoukidebelia da mas safuZvlad udevs mxolod komerciuli

mosazrebebi. es niSnavs, rom sb-Si operaciebis Sefaseba xdeba

sakontraqto, anu saxelSekrulebo fasebiT ekonomikuri faseulobebis

gacvlis momentSi da ara msoflio fasebiT, saSualo an raime

hipoTeturi fasebiT.

magaliTad, davuSvaT borjomis saeqsporto fasi ukrainaSi 2 dolaria,

xolo evropis danarCen qveynebSi _ 3 dolari. aranairi safuZveli ar

gvaqvs, rom ukrainaSi eqsporti gansxvavebuli fasiT avsaxoT imis gamo,

122

rom sxvagan ufro Zvirad gagvaqvs, radgan am SemTxvevaSi mxareebi arian

damoukidebelni, xolo operacia xorcieldeba komerciuli mosazrebiT.

Tumca arsebobs operaciebi, romelTa mimarT zemoaRniSnuli wesis

realizacia ASeuZlebelia, magaliTad:

1. barteri, anu iseTi operaciebi saqonliT, aqtivebiTa da

momsaxurebiT, romlebic ar aris gaSualebuli fuliT. Bbarteris

Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba analogiuri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebi.

amasTan, barteriT eqsportirebuli saqonlis, momsaxurebisa da aqtivebis

fasebi importirebuli barteris Rirebulebis toli unda iyos.

2. is operaciebi, romlebsac romelime mxare ar asrulebs

nebayoflobiT (gadasaxadis an jarimis gadaxda). aseTi operaciebis

Sefaseba siZneles ar warmoadgens.

3. operaciebi mxareebs Soris, romlebic ar arian damoukidebeli

(magaliTad, saTavo kompaniasa da mis sazRvargareTul filials Soris).

im SemTxvevebSi, rodesac Semosavlebis gadaricxva aSkara formiT am

mxareebs Soris SezRudulia kanonmdeblobiT an Seferxebulia

gadasaxadebis gamo, is SeiZleba ganxorcieldes saqonlis, momsaxurebisa

da aqtivebis gacvlis arapirdapiri gziT, xelovnurad gazrdili an

Semcirebuli fasebiT. am SemTxvevaSi, operacia unda avsaxoT fasebSi,

romlebsac gamoviyenebT mxareebis damoukideblobis dros.

damabalansebeli gatareba gakeTdeba ,,Semosavlebis”, an ,,pirdapiri

investiciebis” muxlebSi.

davuSvaT, N qveyanaSi SezRudulia filial-sawarmoTa Semosavlebis

gadaricxva maTi sazRvargareTeli mflobelisaTvis. erT-erTi aseTi

sawarmo, romelic awarmoebs kompiuterebs, 1000 cali kompiuterisagan

Semdgar partias (1 calis fasi 10 dolari) mihyidis saTavo kompanias

(bazarze aseTi kompiuteris fasi 1000 dolaria). cxadia, am SemTxvevaSi

adgili aqvs N qveynidan Semosavlebis arapirdapir gadaqaCvas:

aTasi dol.

saqoneli 1000

Semosavali investiciebidan -990

depozitebi mokiTxvamde ararezident-bankebSi -10

123

saerTo saldo 0

4.operaciebi, romlebic xorcieldeba ara mxolod komerciuli

mosazrebiT, an sruliad arakomerciuli mosazrebebiT (ekonomikuri

daxmareba, saCuqrebi da a.S.). aseTi operaciebis Sefaseba barteris

Sefasebis msgavsia. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu donorisa da mimRebis fasebi

erTmaneTs ar emTxveva, unda gamoviyenoiT donoris fasebi. es operacia,

Tu igi xorcieldeba mxareebs Soris SeTanxmebis safuZvelze,

,,transfertebSi” unda avsaxoT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi unda CavTvaloT,

rom ekvivalenturi gacvla xorcieldeba.

operaciebis registraciis dro

sb-Si operaciebis registraciis dros gamoiyeneba daricxvis meTodi

(igive meTodi gamoiyeneba eas-Sic): operacia aisaxeba im momentSi,

rodesac xdeba ekonomikuri faseulobebis gacvla, gardaqmna, Seqmna an

gaqroba. aRniSnuli momenti gansxvavdeba faqtobrivi gadaxdis

(anazRaurebis) momentisagan. am meTodis Sesabamisad:

sasaqonlo operaciebi aisaxeba maTze sakuTrebis uflebis

gadasvlis momentSi (gamonakliss Seadgens finansuri lizingiT

arendiT gacemuli saqoneli, gadasamuSavebeli saqoneli, saqonlis

miwodeba filiali-sawarmos mier sazRvargareT ganTavsebuli

saTavo kompaniisaTvis da saqonlis moZraoba, dakavSirebuli

savaWro SuamavlobasTan).

momsaxureba aisaxeba misi gawevis momentSi.

dividendebi aisaxeba maTi gamocxadebis momentSi.

procentebis daricxva uwyvetad mimdinareobs.

Sromis anazRaureba aisaxeba im momentSi, rodesac damqiravebels

daqiravebulis winaSe valdebuleba warmoeSoba.

aucilebeli gadasaxadebis saxiT transfertebis (gadasaxadebi,

jarimebi, sadazRvevo anazRaureba da a.S.) asaxva xdeba gadaxdis

valdebulebis dadgomis momentSi.

danarCeni transfertebis asaxva xdeba saqonlis, momsaxurebisa da

aqtivebis operaciebis dabalansebisas.

124

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis asaxva xdeba sakuTrebis

uflebis gadasvlis momentSi (rogorc wesi, es is momentia,

rodesac buRaltrul dokumentebSi aisaxeba moTxovnisa da

valdebulebis warmoSoba).

daricxvis alternatuli meTodia sakaso, rodesac operacia angariSebSi

aisaxeba gadaxdis momentSi.

davuSvaT, qarTuli kompania axdens 5 mln. dolaris saqonlis imports da

eZleva gadaxdis gadavadebis saSualeba. sb-Si es operacia aisaxeba

Semdegi saxiT:

mln. dol.

saqoneli -5

savaWro krediti 5

saerTo saldo 0

rodesac gadaxda ganxorcieldeba, misi asaxva xdeba Semdegi saxiT:

mln. dol.

savaWro krediti -5

depozitebi ararezident-bankebSi 5

saerTo saldo 0

daricxvis meTodTan dakavSirebiT unda aRiniSnos, rom, miuxedavad imisa,

rom vadagadacilebuli davalianebis warmoSoba ar aris ekonomikuri

operacia, sb-Si igi pirobiTad aseTad iTvleba. amasTan,

vadagadaucilebeli davalianebis muxlSi aisaxeba valis Semcireba,

xolo vadagadacilebuli davalianebis muxlSi _ zrda. es saSualebas

gvaZlevs sb-s saSualebiT Tvalyuri vadevnoT sagareo valis

momsaxurebis process.

125

davuSvaT, saqarTvelos rezidents daufiqsirda 100 mln-iani kreditis

ZiriTadi dafarvisa da procentebis dafarvis vadagadacileba (10 mln.

dol). es operacia Semdegi saxiT aisaxeba:

mln. dol.

sainvesticio Semosavali -10

moziduli sesxi

ararezidentebisagan -100

vadagadacilebuli davalianeba,

valdebuleba 110

saerTo saldo 0

Sesabamisad, vadagadacilebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela Semdgomi operacia,

rogoricaa dafarva an restruqturizacia, unda aisaxos vadagadacilebis

aRricxvasTan dakavSirebul muxlebSi.

davuSvaT, zemoaRniSnuli vadagadacilebuli sesxis (110 mln. dol.)

dasafarad ucxouri bankis angariSidan gadmoiricxa 60 mln. dol.

darCenili dasafari Tanxis restruqturizacia moxda grZelvadian

sesxad. sb-Si aisaxeba Semdegi gatarebebi:

mln. dol.

moziduli sesxi

ararezidentebisagan 50

vadagadacilebuli davalianeba,

valdebuleba -110

depozitebi mokiTxvamde

ararezident-bankebSi 60

saerTo saldo 0

aRricxvis savaluto erTeuli

126

ramdenadac saerTaSoriso operaciebi SeiZleba avsaxoT sxvadasxva saxis

valutaSi, ibadeba kiTxva, romeli maTgani unda avirCioT sagadasaxdelo

balansisa da saerTaSoriso sainvesticio poziciis Sesadgenad? radgan

es sistemebi eas-is asagebad unda iqnes gamoyenebeli, isini unda avsaxoT

erovnul valutaSi. amasTan, Tu erovnuli valuta ucxourTan

mimarTebaSi swrafad ufasurdeba, mizanSewonilia misi Sedgena aSS

dolarebSi an evroSi. sabazro fasebisa da registraciis drois

principebidan gamomdinare, sb-Si operaciebi unda aisaxos sabazro

gacvliTi kursebiT operaciebis ganxorcielebis TariRisaTvis, xolo

ssp-Si _ misi Sedgenis momentisaTvis arsebuli sabazro gacvliTi

kursebis mixedviT. amasTan, unda gamoviyenoT yidvisa da gayidvis

kursebis saSualo maCvenebeli. sxvaoba gacvlis saSualo kurssa da

aRniSnul kursebs Soris Seadgens momsaxurebis anazRaurebas.

magaliTad, saangariSo periodSi ararezidenti-banki saqarTvelos

romelime bankisaTvis axorcielebs 100 mln. germanuli markis

konvertacias dolarebSi. germanuli markis gayidvis kursia 0,65 dolari,

xolo yidvis kursi _ 0,64. Tu saSualo kursi Seadgens 0,645-s, maSin sb-Si

es Semdegnairad aisaxeba:

mln. dol.

finansuri momsaxureba -0,5

depozitebi mokiTxvamde ararezident-bankebSi 0,5

saerTo saldo 0

mocemul magaliTSi sadebeto Canaweri (64 mln. dolaris yidva markebze)

da sakredito Canaweri (markebis gayidva 64 mln. dolarad) konversiis

operaciis asaxvisaTvis gakeTdeba muxlSi ,,depozitebi mokiTxvamde

ararezident-bankebSi” da moxdeba maTi saldireba.

sagadasaxdelo balansisa da saerTaSoriso sainvesticio

poziciis klasifikaciebi

ekonomikur analizSi sb-is gamoyenebisaTvis aucilebelia garkveuli

wesiT misi monacemebis dajgufeba. erTi mxriv, gansxvavebuli operaciebi

127

unda gavmijnoT erTmaneTisagan, xolo msgavsi operaciebi gavamsxviloT

da agregirebuli saxe mivceT.

iseve rogorc eas-Si, sb-Sic operaciebi iyofa mimdinare da kapitalurad.

mimdinares miekuTvneba sasaqonlo, momsaxurebisa da Semosavlebis

operaciebi (mimdinare transfertebi ganixileba rogorc Semosavlebis

gadanawileba). kapitaluri operaciebi dakavSirebulia sainvesticio

saqmianobasTan da warmoadgens operaciebs aqtivebiTa da

valdebulebebiT. garda amisa, arsebobs kidev iseTi nakadebi, romelTa

cvlileba gavlenas axdens erovnuli simdidris maCvenebelze.

mimdinare operaciebis saldos absoluturi sidide sapirispiro niSniT _

kapitaluri operaciebis saldos tolia. sanam detalurad SevudgebodeT

TiToeuli aRniSnuli angariSis daxasiaTebas, moviyvanoT sb-is

standartuli komponentebis klasifikacia:

1. mimdinare operaciebis angariSi

A. saqoneli da momsaxureba

1. saqoneli

2. momsaxureba

B. Semosavlebi

1. Sromis anazRaureba

2. Semosavlebi investiciebidan

C. mimdinare transfertebi

2. operaciebis angariSi kapitaliTa da finansuri instrumentebiT

A. kapitalis angariSi

1. kapitaluri transfertebi

2. arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis Sesyidva/gayidva

B. finansuri angariSi

1. pirdapiri investiciebi

1.1. sazRvargareT

1.2. mocemuli qveynis ekonomikaSi

2. portfelis investiciebi

2.1. aqtivebi

2.2. valdebulebebi

128

3. finansuri warmoebulebi

3.1. aqtivebi

3.2. valdebulebebi

4. sxva investiciebi

4.1. aqtivebi

4.2. valdebulebebi

5. sarezervo aqtivebi

mimdinare operaciebis angariSi

saqoneli. tradiciuli saqonlis eqsportisa da importis garda, am

muxlSi aisaxeba gemebis mier saqonlis SeZena portebSi da agreTve is

saqoneli, romlis eqsporti (importi) xdeba maTi gadamuSavebisa da

Semdgomi reimportis (reeqsportis) mizniT. saqonlis moZraoba aisaxeba

ararezidentebisagan rezidentebze (an piriqiT) sakuTrebis uflebis

gadasvlis momentSi, Tundac saqonels ar hqondes sazRvari gadakveTili.

Tu piriqiT, saqonelma gadakveTa sazRvari sakuTrebis uflebis

Seucvlelad (magaliTad. tranzituli tvirTebi, saqonlis miwodeba sxva

qveynebis saelCoebisaTvis da a.S.), maSin es operaciebi ar unda aisaxos

sb-Si. Tumca am wess gamonaklisebic axasiaTebs:

pirveli gamonaklisi dakavSirebulia finansur lizingTan, rac ZiriTadi

kapitalis grZelvadian arendas warmoadgens. Cveulebriv, finansur

lizings axorcieleben finansuri kompaniebi, an finansuri Suamavlebi. sb-

is meTodologiis mixedviT, finansuri lizingis ganxorcielebis dros

faqtobrivad xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla ijariT aRebul

saqonelze, Tumca ara iuridiulad, e.i finansuri lizingi warmogvidgeba

rogorc krediti _ sasaqonlo formiT. finansuri lizingiT arendiT

aRebuli saqoneli sb-Si aisaxeba rogorc saqonlis eqsporti (importi).

damabalansebeli Canaweri keTdeba finansur angariSSi da asaxavs

rezidentebis finansuri moTxovnis warmoSobas ararezidentebisadmi

(ararezidentebisa rezidentebis mimarT). arafinansuri lizingi

warmoadgens moklevadian arendas da ganixileba rogorc momsaxurebis

gaweva.

129

meore gamonaklisi _ es aris saqonlis miwodeba saTavo kompaniasa da

sazRvargareTul filialebs Soris. formalurad, am SemTxvevaSi

miwodebul saqonelze ar xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla, Tumca

saqonlis aRniSnuli gadaadgileba mainc aisaxeba sb-Si, radgan filiali

iTvleba damoukidebel erTeulad. yvela danarCeni operaciac saTavo

kompaniasa da filials Soris asaxvas poulobs sb-Si rogorc operaciebi

rezidentebsa da ararezidentebs Soris.

mesame gamonaklisi ukavSirdeba im saqonels, romelic sazRvargareT

gadis gadasamuSaveblad Semdgomi reeqsportisaTvis. mocemul SemTxvevaSi

formalurad ar xdeba sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla, miuxedavad amisa,

es saqoneli, romelic brundeba qveyanaSi remontis an gadamuSavebis

Semdeg, unda avsaxoT muxlSi ,,saqoneli”. Tu saqoneli qveyanaSi brundeba

momdevno wels, maSin gatareba muxlSi ,,saqoneli” unda dabalansdes

muxliT ,,savaWro kreditebi”.

meoTxe gamonaklisi dakavSirebulia savaWro SuamavlobasTan.

saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi zogierTi savaWro firma yidulobs saqonels

erT qveyanaSi meoreSi gadayidvisaTvis da, amasTanave, es saqoneli ar

kveTs im qveynis sazRvars, romlis rezidenticaa mocemuli firma.

miuxedavad imisa, rom formalurad am SemTxvevaSi saqonelze sakuTrebis

uflebis gadasvla xdeba rezidentebidan ararezidentebze, ekonomikuri

TvalsazrisiT, mizanSewonilia CavTvaloT, rom es savaWro firmebi

savaWro momsaxurebas uweven ararezidentebs da ar axdenen saqonlis

imports qveyanaSi Semdgomi reeqsportisaTvis. amitom sb-Si aseTi

operaciebisaTvis unda moxdes gatareba ara muxliT ,,saqoneli”, aramed

muxlSi “momsaxureba”, savaWro daricxvis sididiT.

davuSvaT rom, firma A qveyanaSi yidulobs 100 dolarad saqonels pirvel

saangariSo periodSi da yidis mas B qveyanaSi 105 dolarad momdevno

periodSi. am SemTxvevaSi mainc mogviwevs gatareba muxlSi “saqoneli”,

xolo imisaTvis, rom miTiTebuli principebiT moxdes sb-s Sedgena wlis

ori saangariSo periodisaTvis, es Semdegnairad unda gakeTdes:

130

aSS dolarebSi

I

periodi

II

periodi

I da

II

periodebi

saqoneli -100 100 0

savaWro momsaxureba 0 5 5

ucxouri valuta 100 -105 -5

saerTo saldo 0 0 0

saqonlis eqsportisa da importis Sefaseba

saqonlis moZraobis Sefaseba saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi garkveul

siZneleebTan aris dakavSirebuli. erT-erTi dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom

yovel konkretul SemTxvevaSi saqoneli sxvadasxvanairad SeiZleba

Sefasdes imis mixedviT, gaiTvaliswineba Tu ara transportirebis,

dazRvevis, datvirTvis, Senaxvis xarjebi, rasac anazRaurebs importiori

an SesaZlebelia _ eqsportiori, saqonlis SeZenis Semdeg myidvelTan

mitanamde.

cxadia, rom aucilebelia raime pirobiTi wesis SemoReba, raTa ar

damaxinjdes savaWro balansis dinamika sxvadasxva Sefasebis safuZvelze.

sb-Si saqonlis eqsporti da importi ,,Fob” fasebSi aisaxeba. es aris

saqonlis Rirebuleba mwarmoeblis fasebSi da moicavs yvela

dakavSirebuli momsaxurebis Rirebulebas eqsportiori qveynis sazRvris

gadakveTis momentisaTvis Semdgom transportirebaze gaweuli

danaxarjebis CaTvliT, anu ,,Fob” fasi _ es aris fasi, romelic

importiorma unda gadaixados, Tu igi axorcielebs saqonlis gadatanas

mas Semdeg, rac is daitvirTeba satransporto saSualebaze eqsportiori

qveynis sazRvarze, yvela saeqporto gadasaxadis gadaxdisa da SeRavaTis

miRebis Semdeg.

131

Tu saqonlis transportirebas an dazRvevas sazRvris gadakveTis Semdeg

eqsportiori axdens, iTvleba, rom igi moqmedebs rogorc importioris

agenti da aseTi gadaxdebi sb-Si aisaxeba muxlSi ,,momsaxureba”.

Tu transportirebas da a.S. eqsportiori qveynis sazRvramde axorcielebs

importiori an sxva ararezidenti, iTvleba, rom is moqmedebs rogorc

eqsportioris agenti da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba saqonlis fasSi

gaiTvaliswineba. ,,Sif” fasi _ es is fasia, romelsac ixdis importiori

saqonlisaTvis saimporto baJisa da sxva gadasaxadebis gadaxdamde, Tu

is ganaxorcielebs saqonlis miwodebas Tavisi qveynis sazRvridan. aqedan

gamomdinare, ,,Sif” da ,,Fob” fasebs Soris sxvaoba warmoadgens dazRvevisa

da transportirebis Rirebulebas da SesaZlebelia sxva momsaxurebis

anazRaurebasac mas Semdeg, rac saqoneli gadakveTs eqsportiori qveynis

sazRvars importioris sazRvramde. rogorc wesi, sabaJo statistikaSi

saqonlis eqsporti fasdeba ,,Fob” fasebSi, xolo importi _ ,,Sif” fasebSi.

amrigad, aucilebelia sabaJo statistikis monacemebis koreqtireba sb-Si

gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT.

moviyvanoT magaliTi, Tu rogor xdeba saqonlis moZraobis asaxva sb-Si

,,Fob” fasebSi. davuSvaT, rom 2007 wlis 29 dekembers qarTulma X

sawarmom germaniaSi SeiZina 10 000 dolaris Rirebulebis saqoneli

(angariSsworeba ganxorcielda dauyovnebliv). garda amisa, aRniSnuli

sawarmo qarTul satransporto kompanias (Y) uxdis 1000 dolars

saqonlis gadatanisaTvis saqarTveloSi satvirTo avtotransportiT.

transportireba ganxorcielda 30 dekembers, Tumca transporti

saqarTvelos sazRvars gadakveTs mxolod 2008 wlis 2 ianvars da X

sawarmo saqonels iRebs adgilze 4 ianvars. davuSvaT, rom

transportirebis xarjebma 30-dan 1 ianvramde Seadgina 400 dolari, 1-dan

2 ianvramde _ 350 dolari, xolo 2-dan 4 ianvramde _ 250 dolari (sul

1000 dolari). es operaciebi Semdegnairad aisaxeba sb-Si:

2007 weli 2008 weli 2007-08

wlebi

132

saqoneli (importi) -10 400 -350 -10 750

momsaxureba (satransporto

momsaxurebis eqsporti)

400 350 750

ucxouri valuta 10 000 0 10 000

saerTo saldo 0 0 0

am magaliTSi 2007 wels importirebuli saqonlis Rirebulebam ,,Fob”

fasebSi Seadgina 10 400 dolari, rac aisaxa muxlSi ,,saqoneli”. Tumca

sinamdvileSi transportirebas axorcielebda importiori, is moqmedebda

rogorc eqsportioris agenti, e.i. iTvleba, rom eqsportiorma aanazRaura

importioris xarjebi 400 dolaris odenobiT da Semdeg mihyida mas

saqoneli 10 400 dolarad, miuxedavad imisa, rom sinamdvileSi

eqsportiors araferi ar gadauxdia importiorisaTvis, xolo

importiorma eqsportiors gadauxada mxolod 10 000. danarCeni gatarebebi

2008 wlisaTvis da orive wlisaTvis erTad mocemulia zemoT

TanmimdevrobiT.

momsaxureba. sb-Si ,,momsaxurebis” muxli Zalian detalizebulia, rac

saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi momsaxurebis zrdad rolze metyvelebs.

moviyvanoT klasifikaciis agregirebuli muxlebi:

1. transporti

1.1. sazRvao

1.2. sahaero

1.3. sxva

2. mgzavroba

3. kavSirgabmuloba

4. samSeneblo momsaxureba

5. dazRveva

6. finansuri momsaxureba

7. kompiuteruli sainformacio momsaxureba

8. gadasaxadebi patentebsa da licenziebze

9. sxva biznes-momsaxureba

10. personaluri, kulturuli momsaxureba, garToba da dasveneba

133

11. momsaxureba saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebisaTvis

,,mgzavrobis” muxlis kreditSi aisaxeba momsaxurebaTa Rirebuleba,

romelsac rezidentebi uweven ararezident fizikur pirebs, agreTve

saqonlis Rirebuleba, romelsac ararezidentebi iZenen rezidentebisagan.

gamonaklisia saerTaSoriso gadayvanebi, rac Sesabamis muxlSi aisaxeba.

debetSi aisaxeba momsaxurebaTa Rirebuleba, romelsac ararezidentebi

uweven rezident pirebs da saqonlis Rirebuleba, rasac rezidentebi

iZenen ararezidentebisagan.

muxlSi ,,finansuri momsaxureba” asaxulia sakomisioebis anazRaureba,

rasac finansuri instituciuri erTeulebi iReben TavianTi momsaxurebis

sanacvlod (angariSis gaxsna, fasiani qaRaldebis ganTavseba, sabrokero

momsaxureba da a.S.).

,,gadasaxadebi patentebsa da licenziebze” (ara saavtoro uflebis an

licenziis yidva da gayidva) eas-is mixedviT ganixileba rogorc

momsaxurebis anazRaureba, amitom sb-Sic is aisaxeba momsaxurebaSi.

Tu saqonlis arendiT aReba xanmokle periodiT xdeba, mesakuTris

Sucvlelobis gamo es ar aisaxeba sb-Si. saarendo gadasaxadebi

arafinansuri lizingis dros aisaxeba rogorc eas-Si, ise sb-Si _

rogorc momsaxureba, muxlSi ,,sxva biznes-momsaxureba”.

Semosavlebi. am muxlSi aisaxeba Semosavlebi, romelsac iReben

rezidentebi ararezidentebisagan (an piriqiT) warmoebis faqtorebiT

(Sroma, kapitali, miwa) sargeblobisaTvis. muxlSi ,,Sromis anazRaureba”

asaxulia momuSaveTa (sezonuri muSebis, sazRvris muSebis) anazRaureba

sxva qveynis rezidentebis mier. anazRaureba SeiZleba ganxorcieldes

rogorc fuladi, ise naturaluri formiT. ,,sainvesticio Semosavlebis”

muxlSi aisaxeba Semosavlebi sazRvargareTuli finansuri aqtivebis

flobidan, romelsac ararezidentebi uxdian rezidentebs (an piriqiT). es

SeiZleba iyos procentebi, dividendebi da Semosavlebis sxva formebi.

134

mimdinare transfertebi. rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, transfertií es aris

operacia, rodesac erTi instituciuri erTeuli meores awvdis saqonels,

momsaxurebas an aqtivs da samagierod ar iRebs misgan ekvivalentur

saqonels, momsaxurebasa da aqtivs. mimdinare transferti zrdis mimRebis

gankargvad Semosavals da amcirebs donoris gankargvad Semosavalsa da

moxmarebis potenciur SesaZleblobebs.

daTqmis mixedviT, yvela sxva transferti kapitaluria. Tu donori da

mimRebi erTmaneTis mimarT ararezidentebi arian, kapitaluri transferti

gavlenas axdens maTi qveynebis erovnul simdidreze. kapitaluri

transfertebia: sakuTrebis uflebis gadasvla aqtivebze, valis patieba.

fulis ususyidlod gadacema ganixileba kapitalur transfertad

mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es Tanxa gamiznulia ZiriTadi aqtivebis

SesaZenad. ,,mimdinare transfertebis” muxls aqvs Semdegi detalizacia:

1. saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi (qveyana, romlisTvisac dgeba

sb).

2. sxva seqtorebi (qveyana, romlisTvisac dgeba sb).

momuSave pirTa gadaricxvebi.

sxva mimdinare transfertebi.

kapitalis angariSi. kapitaluri transfertebi aisaxeba kapitalis

angariSSi, romelSic mocemulia agreTve arafinansuri aqtivebis

SeZena/realizacia. kapitalisa da finansuri angariSebi Seadgenen

dagrovebis angariSebs.

finansuri angariSi, am angariSSi aisaxeba operaciebi rezidentebis

aqtivebiTa da valdebulebebiT ararezidentebis mimarT saangariSo

periodSi. tradiciulad, sb-Si aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis

klasifikacia, upirveles yovlisa, xdeba funqciuri niSnis mixedviT.

gamoiyofa xuTi funqciuri jgufi:

pirdapiri investiciebi.

portfelis investiciebi.

finansuri warmoebulebi.

sarezervo aqtivebi.

135

sxva investicia.

miuxedavad imisa, rom maT Soris gansxvaveba sakmaod pirobiTia,

ekonomikuri analizisaTvis es Zalian mniSvnelovania, radgan aRniSnuli

jgufebis aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis moZraoba sxvadasxva mizeziT

aixsneba. ganvixiloT ufro dawvrilebiT aRniSnuli kategoriebi.

pirdapiri investiciebi. pirdapiri investireba xorcieldeba sawarmos

marTvis procesze zemoqmedebis mizniT sawarmos sakuTar kapitalSi

monawileobis gziT. pirdapiri investicia saerTaSoriso investiciis

kategoriaa. is gulisxmobs ama Tu im ekonomikis rezidenti erTeulis

(pirdapiri investori) grZelvadian interess sxva ekonomikis rezident

erTeulSi (pirdapiri investoris sawarmo). sawarmos pirdapiri investori

aris investori, romelic flobs sawarmos aqciebis an xmis uflebis 10

procents an mets (korporaciis SemTxvevaSi), an ekvivivalentur

Zalauflebas (ararkorporirebuli sawarmos SemTxvevaSi).

davuSvaT, saangariSo periodis bolos erToblivi sawarmos mogebam 100

mln. dolari Seadgina. pirdapiri ucxoeli investori flobs aqciaTa

30%-s. saqarTvelos sagadasaxdelo balanss Semdegi saxe eqneba:

mln. dol.

mimdinare operaciebis angariSi -30

Semosavali investiciidan -30

Semosavlebi pirdapiri investiciebidan

reinvestirebuli Semosavlebi

-30

finansuri angariSi 30

pirdapiri investiciebi 30

saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi 30

Semosavlebis reinvestireba 30

saerTo saldo 0

136

portfelis investicia. portfelis investicia aris savalo fasiani

qaRaldebi, aqciebi da fuladi bazris sxva instrumentebi, romelTa

SeZena xdeba ZiriTadad Semosavlis miRebis mizniT maTi likvidurobis

SenarCunebis xarjze.

portfelis investiciebi imis mixedviT klasificirdeba, finansuri

instrumenti aqtivia Tu valdebuleba. Semdeg maTi dayofa xdeba

finansuri instrumentis saxis mixedviT:

aqciebi (investori flobs aqciebis 10%-ze naklebs) da sxva

monawileoba kapitalSi.

savalo fasiani qaRaldebi.

obligaciebi da sxva grZelvadiani fasiani qaRaldebi.

fuladi bazris instrumentebi.

amis Semdeg aqtivebi klasificirdeba kreditoris seqtoris mixedviT,

xolo valdebulebebi _ erovnuli ekonomikis debitoris seqtoris

mixedviT. arCeven Semdeg oTx seqtors:

fulad-sakredito regulirebis organoebi (fsro).

saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organoebi.

bankebi

sxva seqtorebi:

arafinansuri sawarmoebi.

Sinameurneobebi.

sxva finansuri dawesebulebebi.

Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arasaxelmwifo arakomerciuli

organizaciebi.

finansuri warmoebulebi. es aris finansuri instrumentebi, romlebic

mibmulia konkretul finansur aqtivze, indikatorze, an raime saxis

aqtivze. maTi meSveobiT xdeba finansuri riskebiT vaWroba finansuri

bazrebze. finansuri warmoebulebi moicavs tranzaqciebs svopebiT,

ofcionebiT, sadepozito garantiebiTa da sxv. da aRiricxeba wminda

saxiT. sxva finansuri instrumentebisagan gansxvavebiT, finansuri

warmoebulebi ar moiTxoven kapitalis avansirebas (ofcionebis garda) da

137

sainvesticio Semosavlebis daricxvas. finansuri warmoebulebis

gansazRvra pirvelad gaCnda ssf-s gamocemaSi ,,The Statistical Measurement of

Financial Derivatives. sb-Si maTi gamoyofa calke jgufSi 2000 wels moxda.

sarezervo aqtivebi. sarezervo aqtivebi monetaruli xelisuflebis

gankargulebaSi arsebuli finansuri aqtivebia da gamoiyeneba qveynis

sagadasaxdelo balansis regulirebisaTvis. kerZod, is SeiZleba

gamoyenebul iqnes pirdapir sb-is deficitis dasafinanseblad an

deficitze arapirdapiri zegavlenis mosaxdenad (savaluto birJaze

Carevis gziT erovnuli valutis gacvlis kursis dasaregulireblad).

sarezervo aqtivebi sb-Si Sedgeba Semdegi elementebisagan:

monetaruli oqro

nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi (nsu)

sarezervo pozicia fondSi (qveynis moTxovna ssf-is mimarT ucxour

valutaSi)

ucxouri valuta

naRdi fuli da depozitebi

moTxovnebi (fsro)-s mimarT

moTxovnebi bankebis mimarT

fasiani qaRaldebi

aqciebi

obligaciebi

fuladi bazris instrumentebi

finansuri warmoebulebi

sxva moTxovnebi.

sarezervo aqtivebis erT-erTi Semadgenelia monetaruli oqro _ oqro,

romelic (fsro)-ebis sakuTrebaSia da gamoiyeneba maT mier rogorc

sarezervo finansuri aqtivi. yvela sxva oqro (aramonetaruli) im oqros

CaTvliT, romelic ekuTvnis bankebs, ganixileba rogorc Cveulebrivi

saqoneli. es metyvelebs imaze, rom ukanasknel periodSi oqro kargavs

gadaxdis saSualebis funqcias.

138

sxva investicia. sxva investiciis pirveladi dayofa xdeba aqtivebad

(moTxovnebi ararezidentebisadmi) da valdebulebebad (ararezidentebis

mimarT). aqtivebi da valdebulebebi, Tavis mxriv, klasificirdeba savaWro

kreditebad, naRd fulad da depozitebad, sesxebad da sxva

aqtivebad/valdebulebebad.

savaWro kreditebi warmoadgens moTxovnebsa da valdebulebebs, romelic

warmoiqmneba mimwodebelsa da myidvels Soris uSualo urTierTobisas _

rodesac Tanxis gadaxdis dro ar emTxveva sakuTrebis cvlilebis dros.

savaWro krediti ar gulisxmobs savalo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSvebas

an raime dokumentis Seqmnas.

sxvadasxva vadagadacilebebi aRiricxeba sxva valdebulebebis” muxlSi.

kerZod, es muxli moicavs vadagadacilebebs sagareo valis

momsaxurebaze.

leqcia 8 saerTaSoriso safinanso da sabanko statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito urTierTobebis institucionaluri struqtura;

2. saerTaSoriso sabanko statistika; 3. fuladi sistemebi da fuladi mimoqcevis statistika; 4. inflaciis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika.

saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito

urTierTobebis institucionaluri struqtura

saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito urTierTobebis

institucionaluri struqtura moicavs mrvalricxovan saerTaSoriso

orgnizacias. erTni maTgni, gaCniaT ra didi uflebebi da resursebi,

axorcieleben saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito

urTierTobebis regulirebas, sxvebi warmoadgenen safinanso da

savluto-sakredito politikaSi rekomendaciebisa da konsesusis

SemuSavebis forums samTavoroboTaSoriso ganxilvisaTvis. mesameni

139

uzrunvelyofen informaciis mopovebas, statistikur da samecniero-

kleviT gamomcemlobas aqtuluri safinanso da savluto-sakredito

problemebisa da mTlianad ekonomikis mixedviT.

saerTaSoriso safinanso da savluto-sakredito organizaciebs

pirobiTad SeiZleba vuwodoT saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebi. Aam

organizaciebs aerTianebs saerTo mizani _ rTuli da winaaRmdegobrivi

msoflio meurneobis erTianobisa da stabilizaciis uzrunvelyofa da

TanamSromlobis ganviTareba. M

saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebi ZiriTadad warmoiSva meore

msoflio omis Semdeg, gamonakliss warmoadgens angariSsworebis

saerTaSoriso banki (1930w).

saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebis warmoSoba ganpirobebulia

Semdegi mizeziT:

1. sameurneo cxovrebis globalizaciis gaZliereba, iseTi

transnacionaluri korporciebisa da transnacionaluri

bankebis Seqmna, romlebic scildeba eronul sazRvrebs.

2. msoflio sameurneo kavSirebis saxemwifoTaSorisi regulirebis

ganviTareba, m.S. safinanso da savluto-sakredito

urTierTobebis.

3. msoflio ekonomikis arastabilurobis problemebis, savaluto

sistemis, valutis, kreditebis, fasiani qaRaldebis, oqros

bazrebis CaTvliT erToblivi gadawyvetis aucilebloba.

msoflio mniSvnelobis mqone organizciebs uwinaresad miekuTvneba

gaeros yvela specializebuli instituti – saerTaSoriso savluto

fondi ssf (Internatianai Monetary Fund – IMF), msoflio bankis jgufi da,

agreTve generaluri SeTanxmeba vaWrobasa da tarifebze, Semdgom

gardaqmnili msoflio savaWro organizaciad.

angariSsworebis saerTaSoriso banki (1930w.) _ uxucesi sakredito-

finansuri instituti, romlis saqminoba mimarTulia savaluto

140

urTierTobis sferoSi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaze.

damfuZneblebi _ belgia, germnia, itlia, safrngeTi da iaponia. amJamad

misi wevria 34 saxelmwifo. Aadgilmdebareoba bazeli (Sveicaria). Seiqmna,

rogorc saerTaSoriso banki im centraluri bankebis mier, romlebic

arian erTdroulad misi dafuZneblebi da klientebi. komerciul da sxva

bankebTan, agreTve kerZo pirebTan operaciebis ganxorcieleba

angariSsworebis saerTaSoriso banks SeuZlia mxolod im qveynis

centraluri bankis TanxmobiT, romlis rezidentebi arin potenciuri

klientebi. bankis wesdebis Tanaxmad misi operaciebi unda

Seesatyvisebodes am operaciebSi monawile qveynebis savaluto politikas.

am bankis ZiriTadi mizanebia centralur bankebs Soris TanamSromlobis

xelSewyoba, saerTaSoriso finansuri operaciebis gansaxorcileblad

xelsayreli pirobebis uzrunvelyofa, da agreTve ndobiT aRWurvili

piris an agentis funqciis Seruleba maTi wevrebis mier saerTaSoriso

angariSsworebis ganxorcielebisas.

marTvis organoebia aqcionerebis saerTo kreba, direqtorTa sabWo, bankis

prezidenti da administracia. aqcionerebis saerTo kreba moiwveva

yovelwliurd da Sedgeba wevr qveynebis centraluri bankebis

warmomadgenlebisgan. aqciunerebis xmebi nawildeba TiToeuli qveynis

centraluri bankisTvis gamoyofili xelmowerili aqciis raodenobis

proporciulad.

bankis direqtorTa sabWo tardeba araumetes 10 jer weliwadSi.

direqtorTa sabWo niSnavs bankis prezidents, romelic akontrolebs

administraciis saqmianobas.

bankis resuresebi formirdeba aqcioneruli kapitalisa da moziduli

saxsrebis xarjze. Bbankis aqcioneruli kapitali ekuTvnis wevr qveynebis

centralur banks (80%-ze meti) da kerZo aqcionerebs. bankis aqciebi

aZlevs yvela aqcioners dividendebis miRebis Tanabar uflebas, magram

kerZo aqcionerebs ara aqvT xmis ufleba.

141

saerTaSoriso savluto fondi Seiqmna 1944 wels breton-vudsis

konferenciaze, miuxedavad imisa, rom is aris gaeros specializebuli

dawesebuleba da monawileobs gaeros ekonomikuri da socialuri sabWos

muSaobaSi, moqmedebs damoukideblad da aqvs sakuTari wesdeba, marTvis

struqtura da finansebi.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis saqmianoba:

1. xelsuwyobs saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobas fulad-sakredito

sferoSi;

2. xelsuwyobs valutis kursis stabilurobas da aregulirebs

normebsa da wesebs savaluto sferoSi;

3. xelsuwyobs mravalmxrivi angariSworebis Seqmnas da savaluto

SezRudvebis aRmofxvras;

4. exmareba Tavis wevrebs sagadasaxdelo balansis disproporciis

aRmofxvraSi, finansuri saxsrebis droebiT gacemis xarjze.

ssf gaaCnia saerTaSoriso finansuri rezevebis Seqmnisa da Tavisi

wevrebisaTvis gacemis uflebmosileba ,,sesxebis specialuri uflebis”

fomiT. fondis finansuri resursebi ZiriTadad formirdeba misi wevr-

qveynebis xelmoweris (kvotebis) xarjze. kvotebi formirdeba formuliT,

gamodinare wevr-qveynebis ekonomikis SefardebiTi zomebidan.

ssf ZiriTadi finansuri roli mdgomareobs sagadasaxdelo balansTan

mimarTebiT siZneleebis mqone wevr-qveynebisTvis moklevadiani kreditebis

gacemaSi. Tavis mxriv wevrebi, romlebic iReben saSualebebs fondidan

Tanxmdebian ganaxorcielon politikuri reformebi aseTi siZneleebis

gamomwvevi mizezebis aRmofxvris mizniT. kreditebis zoma izRudeba

kvotebis proporciulad. ssf sxva kreditebi ufro grZelvadiania,

SeRavaTiani kreditebis CaTvliT, dabali Semosvlebis mqone wevr-

qveynebisTvis subsidiis safuZvelze, romelic finansdeba warsulSi ssf

oqros gayidvisa da wevr-qveynebis Senatanebis xarjze.

xelmZRvaneli organoa mmarTvelTa sabWo, romelSic wardgenilia yvela

wevri qveyana, ikribeba yovelwliurad. yoveldRiur muSaobas

142

xelmZRvnelobs aRmasrulebeli sabWo 24 wevris SemadgenlobiT.

safinanso-savaluto komiteti, romlis 24 wevri Sedis mmarTvelTa

sabWoSi konsultirebas uwevs sabWos mis kompetenciaSi Semaval

sakiTxebSi. ssf profesionli TanamSromlebi ZiriTadad arin

ekonomistebi.

ssf gamocema Word Economic Outllook (msoflio ekonomikuri mdgomareoba) da

Global Financial StabiliTy Report moxseneba globlur finansur stabilurobaze

gamodis weliwadSi orjer, danarCen sxvadasxva gamokvlevebTan.

msoflio banki, ssf-Tan erTad aris msxvili safinaso orgnizacia, aseve

Seqmnili breton-vudsis konferenciis Sedegebis mixedviT, romelic

Catarda aSS 1944 wels.

msoflio banki xelsuwyobs grZelvadin ekonomkur ganviTarebas,

siRaribis Semcirebas teqnikuri da finansuri mxardaWeriT, maT Soris

imisTvis, rom daxmareba aRmouCinos qveynebs gansazRvruli seqtorebis

reformirebaSi an gansazRvruli proeqtebis ganxorcielebaSi _

skolebis, jandacvis obieqtebis mSenebloba, daavadebebTan brZola,

garemos dacva. Mmb-is xelSewyoba atarebs geZelvadian xasiaTs da

finasdeba rogorc wevr-qveynebis Senatanebis, aseve obligaciebis

gamoSvebis meSveobiT. mb-is TanamSromelTa kvalifikacia moicavs

disciplinebis ufro farTo wres vinem msf TanamSromlebis

kvalifikacia.

ssf da mb TanamSromloben sxvadasxva dargebSi, gansakuTrebiT dabal

Semosavlian qveynebSi siRaribis Semcirebis, uRaribesi qveynebis valis

tvirTis Serbilebis, da agreTve qveynis finansuri seqtoris Sefasebis

saqmeSi. orive organizacia atarebs erTobliv TaTbirs weliwadSi

orjer.

msoflio banki _ saerTSoriso finansuri organizacia, Seqmnili

ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis finansuri da teqnikuri daxmarebis

orgnizebis mizniT. man Tavis ganviTarebis procesSi ganicada sxvadsxva

143

struqturuli cvlilebebi, amitom termin mb-Si sxvadsxva etapze

moazreboda sxvdasxva organizacia.

Tavidan mb asocirdeboda ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis

saerTSoriso bankTan, romelic aRuCenda dasavleT evropasa da iaponias

meore msoflio omis Semdeg finansur daxmarebas aRdgenisaTvis.

mogvianebiT 1960 w. Seiqmna ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia,

romelmac itvirTa am bankis politikasTan dakvSirebuli funqciebis

nawili.

amJamad mb-Si faqtobrivad moiazreba ori orgnizacia:

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki;

ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia.

sxvadsxva dros maT miuerTda mb amocanebis gadasawyvetad Seqmnili kidev

sami organizacia:

saerTaSoriso finansuri korporacia;

investiciebis garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagento;

saeinvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso centri.

xuTive orgnizacia Sedis msoflio bankis organizaciis jgufSi da

iwodebian msoflio bankis jgufad.

mb gaaCnia Tavisi warmomadgenloba msoflios 100-ze met qveyanaSi, sadac

muSaobs 10000-mde kaci. Stab-bina voSingtoni.

mb wevrobis pirobaa ssf-Si wevroba, e.i. ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis

saerTSoriso bankis yoveli wevri jer und gaxdes ssf-s wevri. mxolod

is qveynebi, romlebic arian ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis

saerTSoriso bankis wevrebi, SeiZleba iyvnen msoflio bankis jgufSi

Semavali sxva organizaciebis wevri.

mb SemadgenlobaSi Semavali ori urTierTdakavSirebuli dawesebuleba _

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki da ganviTarebis

saerTaSoriso asociacia sesxems gascemen dabali saprocento

ganakveTebiT, nulovani procentiT an grantebis saxiT im qveynebs,

144

romlebsac araqvs kapitalis saerTaSoriso bazrebze daSveba an aqvT

daSvebis araxelsayreli pirobebi. gansxvavebiT sxva finansuri

dawesebulebeisgan mb ar iswrafvis mogebis miRebisaken. ganviTarebisa da

rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki moqmedebs sabazro safuZvelbze,

iyenebs Tavis maRal sakredito reitings, romelic aZlevs mas saSualebas

miiRos saxsrebi dabali procentiT, imisTvis rom gasces Tavis klientebs

ganviTarebadi yveqnebis ricxvidan aseve dabali saprocento ganakveTiT.

saoperacio xarjebs, dakavSirebuls am saqmianobasTan, banki faravs

damoukideblad, dafinansebis gare wyaroebis gamouyeneblad.

weliwadSi erTxel msoflio bankis jgufi SeimuSavebs CarCo documents:

,, msoflio bankis jgufis saqmianobis strategias”, romelic gamoiyeneba

rogorc qveynebTan TanamSromlobis safuZveli. strategia exmareba bankis

programis SekavSirebas, rogorc sesxebis gacemis aseve analitikuri da

sakonsultacio momsaxurebis mixedviT msesxebeli qveynis ganviTarebis

konkretul miznebTan. strategiaSi Sedis programebi da proeqtebi,

romlebsac SeuZliaT maqsimaluri gavlena iqonios siRaribis

problemebis gadawyetSi da xeliSeuwyos dinamiur socialur-ekonomikur

ganviTarebas.

Tavidan ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki

mowodebuli iyo kapitalisturi qveynebis akumulirebuli sabiujerto

saSulebebisa da moziduli investorebis kapitalis meSveobiT kerZo

investiciebis stimulireba moexdina dasavleT evropis qveynebSi,

romelTa ekonomika dazaralda meore msoflio omis dros. 50-an wlebSi,

rodesac dasavleT evropis ekonomika stabilizirda, misi saqmianoba

ufro metad orientirda aziis, afrikis da laTinuri merikis qveynebze.

ssf-gan gansxvavebiT ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso banki

ar gmoiyenebs dakreditebis standartul pirobebs. Mmisi sakredito

ganakveTebi, vadebi da moculoba ganisazRvreba dasakreditebeli

proeqtis TaviseburebebiT. bankis yvela sesxi unda iyos garantirebuli

wevr-qveynebis mTarobebis mier. sesxebi gmoiyofa procentuli ganakvetiT,

romelic icvleba yovel 6 TveSi. sesxebi gaicema, rogorc wesi 15-20

wliT, ZiriTadi Tanxis mixedviT gadsaxadis 3-5 wlis gadavadebiT.

145

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis umaRlesi organoa

mmarTvelTa sabWo da direqtoriati rogorc aRmasrulebeli organo.

bankis prezidenti, rogorc wesi aSS umaRlesi saqmiani wreebis

warmomadgenelia. sabWos sesiebi tardeba weliwadSi erTxel ssf-Tan

erToblivad. bankis wevrebi SeiZleba iqvnen mxolod ssf wevrebi, xmebi

aseve ganisazRvreba qveynis kvotiT ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis

saerTSoriso bankis kapitalSi (180 miliard dolarze meti). miuxedavad

imisa rom wevri aris 186 qveyana, liderobs Svideuli: aSS, iaponi,

didibritaneTi, safrangeTi, germnia, kanada da italia.

bankis resursebis wyaro garda aqcioneruli kapitalisa aris

saobligacio sesxebis ganTavseba ZiriTadad amerikul bazarze, da

saSualebebi miRebuli obligaciebis gayidvidan.

ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacia (Seiqmna 1960 w.) kredits gascems

mxolod wevr-qveynebs 35-40 wlis vadiT. dafarva iwyeba SeRavaTiani 10

wlini periodiis Semdeg. kreditebi gaicema dasakreditebeli qveynis

erovnul valutaSi. saxsrebis miRebis ufleba aqvT uRaribes da naklebad

kreditunarin wevr-qveynebs Zalian dabali SemosavliT _ kreditebis

umetesoba gaicema qveynebze, romelTa mosaxleobis erT sulze saSualo

wliuri Semosavali Seadgens 800 dolars. bankis iRebs mxolod

sakomisios ¾3/4% odenobiT administraciuli xarjebis dasafarad. Aam

kreditebis mizania eqsportis stimulireba ganviTarebuli qveynebidan

Rarib qveynebSi. ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociaciaze modis mb

sakredito operaciebis mTliani moculobis 40%.

ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociaciis resursebi formirdeba

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis mogebisgan

gadaricxvebis, samrewveli ganviTarebuli qveynebis Senatanebisa

(saSualebebis Sevseba, rogorc wesi xdeba yovel sam wels), agreTve

dabrunebuli kreditebisgan.

146

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankisa da ganviTarebis

saerTaSoriso asociaciis meSveobiT mb gascems ZiriTadad ori saxis

kredits: sainvesticio kreditebs da kreditebs ganviTarebis miznebisTvis.

sainvesticio kreditebi gaicema socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

proeqtebis CarCoebSi sxvadasxva seqtorebSi saqonlis, samuSaoebis da

mosaxurebis warmoebis dasafinanseblad.

kreditebi ganviTarebis miznebisTvis (adre ewodeboda kreditebi

struqturuli cvlilebebisaTvis) gaicema finansuri resursebis

gamoyofis gziT politikuri da institucionaluri reformebis

mxardasaWerad.

proeqtebi, romlebic kreditdeba ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso asociacis

xarjze, unda Seesatyvisebodes igeve standartebs, rac ganviTarebisa da

rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis mier dafinansebuli proeqtebi.

saerTaSoriso finansuri korporacia (Seqmnilia 1956w.) es orgnizacia

Seqmnilia wevr-qveynebSi ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyobis mizniT

sawrmoo sferoSi mewarmobis gnviTarebis stimulirebis gziT. mis

saqmianobaSi ZiriTadi yuradReba eqceva dasakreditebel qveyanaSi kerZo

mewarmeobis mxardaWeras da ucxouri kerZo investiciebs mozidvis

stimulirebas. kreditebi gaecema maRalrentabelur sawarmoebs 15 wlamde

vadiT (saSualod 5-dan 7 wlamde). Kkrediti faravs proeqtis

Rirebulebis mxolod 25%.

saerTaSoriso finansuri korporaciis kreditebis Tavisebureba

samTavrobo garantiebis moTxvnilebis arasebobaSia, gansxvavebiT

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankisa da ganviTarebis

saerTaSoriso organisaciisagan., ramdenadac kerZo kapitali iswrafvis

Tavi aaridos saxelmwifo kontrols. garda amisa saerTaSoriso

finansur korporacias 1961 wlidn gaaCnia ufleba saSualebebis uSualo

investirebisa sawarmos auqciunerul kpitalSi aqciebis Semdgomi

miyidviT kerZo investorebisaTvis. am SemTxvevaSi vlindeba msoflio

147

bankis jgufisaTvis maxasiaTebeli TanamSromlobis tendencia da ara

konkurencia kerZo investorebTan.

investiciebis garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagento (Seqmnilia 1988w.)

axorcielebs pirdapiri ivesticiebis dazRvevas arakomerciuli

riskebisgan (vadiT 15-dn 20 wlamde), konsultaciebs uwevs samTavrobo

organoebs ucxouri investiciebis sakiTxebSi. garda amisa axdens

sainvesticio SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb informaciis gavrcelebis da

ganviTarebad qveynebSi da gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi investirebis

xelSewyobis pirobebis Seqmnis reklamis miwodebas. investiciebis

garantirebis mrvalmxrivi saagentos wevrebi arian mxolod ganviTarebisa

da rekonstruqciis saerTSoriso bankis wevrebi. finansirebis wyaroa misi

kapitli formirebuli wevr-qveynebis Senatanebisagan.

saeinvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso centri. Seiqmna 1966 w.

da imis Semdeg asrulebs ucxouri investorebsa da sesxis amReb

qveynebs Soris davebis regulirebaSi saerTaSoriso arbitris funqciebs.

amisaTvis is ganaxorcielebs SeTanxmebebs an saarbitraJo garCevebs

mxareebs Soris. amJamad sainvesticio davebis regulirebis saerTaSoriso

centrisTvis sadavo sakiTxebiT mimaTvaze debuleba aris saerTaSoriso

sainvesticio SeTanxmebisa da xelSekrulebebis stndartuli punqti.

parizis klubi (1956w.) – wamyvani kreditor-qveynebis samTaroboTaSoriso

instituti aerTianebs 20 qveyanas. ganixileba qveynebis saxelmwifo valis

mixedviT gadaxadebis gadavadebis, daregulirebis problemebi. calmxrivi

moratoriumis asacileblad (gadasaxdebis gaadvadebis) kreditorebi

awarmoeben molaparakebebs movaleebTan ,,pirispis” sagareo valis

gadaxedvis pirobebze. misi saqmianobis dawyeba miekuTvneba 1956w.,

rodesac argentinis kreditorebi iqna miwveuli parizSi movaleebTan

molparakebaze. parizis klubis perioduli sxdomebi 70-an wlebSi

Seicvala 80-90-ani wlebSi aqtiuri muSobiT ganviTarebadi qveynebisa da

Semdeg aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis saxelmwifo valis dafarvasTan

dakavSirebuli problemebis gamwvavebis gamo. Pparizis klubis

sxdomebze eswrwbian damkvirveblebi saerTaSoriso savaluto fonididan,

148

ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis serTasoriso bankidan da Cveuilebriv,

ganixileba sagareo valis im nawilis sakiTxi, romelic unda iyos

dafaruli mimdinare wels.

Tu romelime movale saxelmwifo ganicdis sirTuleebs (kerZod

gadasaxadebis balansis balansirebSi) iwyebs gajnsaRebis programas

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis egidiT. parizis klubi mocemuli qveynis

mTavrobasTan erTad SeimuSavebs misi saxelmwifo sagareo valis

restruqturizaciis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebas.

londonis klubi _ 60-ze meti kerZo komerciuli bankebis saerTaSoriso

gaerTianeba, formirebulia 70-an wlebSi im problemebis gadawyvetis

mizniT, romlebic warmoiSva imis gamo rom rigi qveyana (uwinaresad

ganviTarebadebi) ver uzrunvelyofen sagare valis regularul

momsaxurebas. ganixilavs movale qveynebis kerZo sagareo davalianebis

daregulirebis problemebs. Sedegad Cndeba sagadasaxdelo balansis

pasiuri saldos Semcirebis SesaZlebloba saqonlisa da kapitalis

importis moculobis Semcirebis gareSe. londonis klubi, gansxvavebiT

parizisis klubisa aregulirebs kerZo komerciuli bankebis winSe

arsebul davalianebebis sakiTxebs, romlis kreditebi ar imyofeba

saxelmwifo garantiebis an dazRvevis qveS. savalo problemebis

gadawyvetis ZiriTadi meTodebia: davalianebis restruqturizacia,

dafarvis gadavadeba ganaxlebadi kreditebis gacema.

ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebi Seqmnilia 20-e saukunis 60-an wlebSi

aziaSi, afrikaSi, amerikaSi kolonialuri sistemis daSlis Semdeg. maTi

Seqmnis mizezebia ganviTarebadi qveynebis mier politikuri

damoukideblobis mopovebasTan dakavSirebiT maTi rolis cvlileba da

nacionaluri da regionaluri problemebis koleqtiuri gadwyvetis

aucilebloba. ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebis ricxvSi Sedian

ganviTarebis aziuri banki, ganviTarebis amerikuli banki, ganviTarebis

afrikuli banki, ganviTarebis islamuri banki, ganviTarebis yaribis banki,

ganviTarebis aRmosavleT afrikuli banki, ganviTarebis centraluri

afrikis banki da sxva. wevrebi arian, rogorc regionis saxelmwifoebi,

149

aseve araregionuli saxelmwifoebi, m.S. ganviTarebulebi. ganviTarebuli

qveynebi Seadgenen daaxloebiT 1/3. maT ekiTvniT sawesdebo kapitalis

mniSvnelovani nawili, rac aZlevs maT SesaZleblobas mniSvnelovani

gavlena hqondeT bankis saqmianobaze.

regionaluri bankebis miznebia regionis qveynebis ekonomikuri

ganviTarebis, TanamSroblobisa da saocialuri progresis xelSewyoba,

davalianebisa da siRatakis Semcireba, qalebis mdgomareobis

gaumjobeseba, kerZo seqtoris ganviTarebis xelSewyoba, bunebis

racionaluri gamoyenebis uzrunvelyofa.

regionaluri bankebis resursebi Sedgeba sawesdebo kapitalis, kapitalis

saerTaSoriso bazrebze sesxebis gziT moziduli saSualebebis, da

agreTve specialuri fondebisagan, romlebic Seqmnilia ZiriTdad bankis

wevr qveynebis Senatanebis xarjze teqnikuri daxmarebis gawevisa d

SeRavaTiani dakreditebisaTvis.

bankis operaciebi mimarTulia ekonomikuri ganviTarebis yvela

mimarTulebis mxardaWeaze, magram prioritetulia sociluri d

ekonomikuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebis dafinnseba (energetikis,

transportis, komunikaciebis da a.S.), agreTve soflis meurneobis. bankis

resursebis sakmaod didi nawili mimarTulia mrewvelobis dakreditebze.

ganviTarebis regionalur bankebSi dadgenilia resursebis formirebis,

nasesxi saSualebebis socialur sferoebSi mimarTvis erTini principi,

sakredito politika tardeba msoflio bnkis jgufis nimuSiT. amasTan

erTad arsebobs gansxvaveba ganviTarebis regionaluri bankebis

saqmianobaSi. isini ganisazRvreba sami kontinentis _ laTinuri amerika,

azia, afrika _ qveynebis ekonomikuri, socialuri da kulturuli

ganviTarebis sxvadasxva doniT, maTi istoriuli tradiciebis

TaviseburebebiT.

gaeros specializebuli dawesebulebis _ ekonomikuri sabWos mier

Seqmnilia 4 regionaluri komisia _ evropis, afrikis, aziis, laTinuri

amerikisaTvis. Bbolo orma xeli Seuwyo aziis ganviTarebis bankisa da

150

ganviTarebis amarikaTaSorisi bankis organizacias. am organizaciebs

avseben specialuri fondebi.

evrpuli ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis organizacia Seqnili 1948 w.

marSalis gegmis ganxorcielebis mizniT, Semdgom (1950-1958ww)

gadaorientirda evropuli sagadasaxdelo kavSiris Seqmnaze, xolo 1961w

is Senacvlebuli iqna ekonomnikuri ganviTarebisa da TanamSrolobis

organizaciiT (Orgnisation of Economic Cooperation and Devolopment).

evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis banki dafauZnes 1940 wels 40

qveyanam, agreTve evropis ekonomikurma Tanamegobrobam (amJamad

efrokavSiri) da evropis sainvesticio bankma. am saerTaSoriso

safinanso-sakredito institutis aqcionerebi SeiZleba iyvnen

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis wevri , rogorc evropuli aseve

araevropuo qveynebi. amJamad masSi Sedis 60 qveyana. Stab-bina londoni,

mraval QveyanaSi aqvs warmomadgenloba, romelic koordincis uwevs

adgilze.

evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis bankis miznebia centraluri

da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebisTvis sabazro ekonomikis SeqmnaSi

xelSewyoba da mravalpartiuli demokratiis, pluralizmis da sabazro

ekonomikis principebis momxre qveynebSi kerZo mewarmeobis ganviTarebis

mxardaWera. am miznebis realizebisaTvis banki mxarsuWers monawile

qveynebSi struqturuli da dargobrivi ekonomikuri reformebis

gatarebas, m.S. demonopolizaciis, decentralizaciis da privatizaciis

ganxorcielebisas; xels uwyobs erovnuli kapitlis mobilizebas da

ucxouri investiciebis mozidvas; axorcielebs investiciebs warmoebaSi

konkurentuli garemos Sesaqmnelad, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis

asamaRleblad da cxovrebis xarisxis gasaumjobeseblad. astimulirebs

kapitalis bazris ganviTarebas da sxv.

marTvis organoebia mmarTvelTa sabWo, direqtorebis sabWo da bankis

prezidenti. bankis xelmZRvaneli organoa mmarTvelTa sabWo, romelSic

Sedis TiTo qveynidan erTi mmarTveli da misi erTi moadgile.

151

mmarTvelTa sabWo ikribeba weliwadSi erTxel bankis

funqcionirebisaTvis starategiuli mniSvnelobis mqone sakiTxebis

gadasawyvetad.

mTavari aRmasrulebeli orgnoa direqtorebis sabWo, moicavs 23 wevrs,

roblebis gadarCeva xdeba yovel sam wels. is axocorielebs bankis

mimdinare saqmianobis xelmZrvanelobas, agreTve asrulebs mmarTvelTa

sbWos mier maze delegirebul uflebamosilebas. direqtorTa sabWos

yovel wevrs gaCnia xmaTa raodeneoba toli bankis aqcionerul kapitalSi

mowerili aqciebis raodenobis.

bankis prezidenti irCeva mmarTvelTa sabWos mier 4 wlis vadiT, is

Tavmjdomareobs direqtorTa sabWoze da marTavs bankis mimdinare

saqmianobas.

evropis ganviTarebisa da rekonstruqciis bankis resursebi formirdeba

sawesdebo kapitalis, nasesxi (moziduli) saSualebebis da sesxebis

dafarvis an garntiebis mixedviT miRebuli saSualebebis xarjze. Ggarda

amisa socialurad mniSvnelovani daabal rentabeluri dargebis

invesrtirebisa da teqnikuri daxmarebis gawevisaTvis banki qmnis

specialur fondebs, romlis resursebi formirdeba donorebis

nebayoflobiTi Sentanebis xarjze.

bankis aqcioneruli kapitli Seadgens 20 mliard evros. maTi udidesi

wili ekuTvnis ganviTrebul qveynebs. centraluri evropisa da

aRmosavleT evropis kvota 13%. banki valdebulia Tavis resursebis

aranakleb 60% gamoiyenos kerZo seqtoris dakreditebisTvis _ kerZo

firmebis, privatizebuli saxelmwifo sawarmoebis, agreTve erToblivi

sawrmoebis. Ddakreditebis prioritetuli mimarTulebebia privatizaci da

struqturuli reformebi, finansuri sistema, energetika (atomuri

reaqtivebis CaTvliT), telekomunaciebi, transporti, ekologiuri

infrastruqtura, soflis meurneoba, bunebrivi resursebi da turizmi.

152

kreditis misaRebad komerciulma sawarmoebma an maTi saxeliT

moqmedebis uflebiT aRWurvilma Suamavlebma unda mimrTon uSualod

banks. rekomendebulia bankisTvis mimarTva proeqtze muSaobis sawyis

etapze, imisaTvis rom miiRon saWiro rekomendaciebi. potenciurma

msesxeblebma unda waradginon dawvrilebiTi cnobebi Tavis aqcionerebze,

saqmianobaze da proeqtze. Aam dros aucileblad xdeba bankis

ekologiuri politikis prioritetebis realizebis uzrunvelyofa. bankis

kreditis vadebi Seadgens 5-10 wels, kreditis minimaluri Tanxa _ 5 mln.

evro. Bbanks SeuZlia ufro naklebi krediti gasces, Tu qveynisaTvis

proeqti mniSvnelovania. dakrediteba warmoebs nebismier Tavisuflad

konvertirebad valutaSi, pratikaSi ZiriTdad _ dolarebSi da evroSi.

proeqtis finansireba Seadgens misi Rirebulebis 35%. kreditis ZiriTadi

Tanxis dafarva xdeba Tanbari nawilebiT yovel naxevarwels.

banki funqcionirebs komerciul safuZvelze da Tavis kreditebs gascems

sabazro ganakveTebiT. komerciuli sawarmoebis dakreditebisas banki

rogorc wesi ar iTxovs saSualebis dabrunebis samTavrobo garantiebs,

Tumca am SemTxvevaSi Cveulebiv iyenebs kreditis proeqtis aqtivebiT

sagiravano uzunvelyofas (magaliTad ZiriTad fondebze, moZrav

qonebaze da a.S.). ganakveTi kreditebis mixedviT SeiZleba iyos mcuravi da

fiqsirebuli, agreTve gamoiyeneba xejirebis sxvadasxva instrumentebis

Sexameba.

proeqtebis Tanadafinanseba xorcieldeba erToblivi dafinansebis,

praleluri finansirebis, sindicirebuli kreditis da sindicirebuli

monawileobis formiT.

evropis sainvesticio banki (luqsenburgi) kreditebs gascems 7-dan 12

wlmde vadiT, xolo ganviTarebad qveynebs 40 wlamde. mizania

evrokvSiris qveynebis CamorCenili regionebis ganviTareba, sawarmoebis

rekonstruqcia, erToblivi sameurneo obieqtebis Seqmna, prioritetuli

dargebis gnviTreba.

153

evropis ganviTarebis fondi (1958w.) atarebs evrokavSiris koleqtiur

politikas ganviTarebadi qveynebis mimarT, axdens am qveynebis

ganviTarebis oficialuri daxmarebis ormxrivi programebis

koordinacias.

soflis meurneobis orientaciisa da garantirebis evropuli fondi

(1969w.) xels uwyobs saerTo agraruli bazris Seqmnas da ganviTarebas

(,,mwvane evropa”).

regionaluri ganviTarebis evropuli fondi (1975w.) gascems kreditebs

evrokavSiris erToblivi biujetis saSulebebis xarjze wevr qveynebSi

regionaluri dispropociebis gamoTanabrebis mizniT, ramdenadac iq 25

uRatakesi raionia, romlis cxovrebis done 2,5 jer dabalia vinem 25

yvelaze ayvavebulSi.

evropis savaluto instituti (franqfuti maiamze, 1994 w,) man Secvala 1973

wels Seqmnili savaluto TanamSromlobis evropuli fondi _

zenacionaluri organo, 12 centraluri bankis mmarTvelebis

SemadgenlobiT, axorcielebs am bankebis fuladi da sakredito

politikis koordinacias, xels uwyobs evropuli centraluri bankebis

sistemis Seqmnas da erTin valutaze gadasvlas. maze gadavida ekiu-s

emisiis funqcia da wevr qveynebis blansis deficitis dasafarad

kreditebis gacema. 1998w. ivlisidan evropis savaluto instituti

Canacvlda evropis centraluri bankiT, romelic uSvebs evros. 1999w.

moqmedebs centraluri bankebis evropuli sistema, romelic moicavs

evropis centralur banks da evroze gadasul evrokavSiris qveynebis

centralur bankebs.

dasavleT evropis integraciis regionaluri svaluto-sakredito da

finansuri organizaciebi warmoadgenen misi institucionaluri

struqturis Semadgenel nawils.

saerTaSoriso sabanko statistika

154

safinanso-sakredito sistemaSi bankebi TamaSoben gansakuTrebul rols.

banki _ esaa safinanso dawesebuleba, romlis funqciebia:

fuladi saSualebebisa da dagrovebis akumulacia;

kreditebis gacema;

fulis, fasiani qaRaldebis emisia;

saxelmwifoebs, sawarmoebsa da calkeul pirebs Soris

angariSsworebebSi da gadaxdebSi Suamavloba.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba bankebis klasifikacia Semdegi

niSnebis mixedviT:

1. erovnuli kuTvnilebis mixedviT:

trasnacionaluri bankebi, maT mraval qveqanaSi gaaCniaT filialebi,

magram inarCuneben Tavis nacionalur kuTvnilebas;

mravalnacionaluri bankebi, romelTa damfuZneblebia rigi qveynis

msxvili bankebi (msoflio banki, evropis ganviTarebisa da

rekonstruqciis banki).

2. sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT:

saxelmwifo;

arasaxelwifo.

mocemuli niSniT klasifikaciis safuZvelia sawesdebo kapitalis

kuTvnileba da misi formirebis xerxebi.

3. sabanko saqmianobis mimarTulebebis mixedviT:

centraluri (sarezevo bankebi), yovelTvis saxelwifo bankia, im

SemTxvevaSic ki Tu ar flobs, an nawilobrivad flobs maT

kapitals;

emisiuri _ bankebi, romlebic saxelmwifos davalebiT

gansazRvraven fasiani qaRaldebis emisiis moculobas, pirobebs da

vadebs, Tavisi xarjebiT maTi SeZeniTa da gayidviT organizebas

ukeTeben maT ganTavsebas da meorad mimoqcevas;

ipoTekuri _ bankebi, romlebic specializdebian grZelvadiani

kreditebis gacemaze uZravi qonebis giravnobiT;

155

komerciuli _ aqcioneruli bankebi, romelTa ZiriTadi funqciebia

iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis Tavisufali fuladi saSualebebis

mozidva da maTi ganTavseba;

inovaciuri _ komerciuli bankebis nairsaxeobaa, maTi ZiriTadi

operaciebia _ venCuruli kapitalis, teqnikuri da teqnologiuri

procesebis dakrediteba. am bankis resursebi xels uwyobs

gamogonebebisa da siaxleebis danergvas, rac uzrunvelyofs

maRalefeqturi saxeobebis produqciis warmoebas, gamoSvebuli

teqnikis konkurentunarianobisa da teqnikuri donis zrdas;

saSemnaxvelo _ ZiriTadi funqcia fizikuri pirebis Tavisufali

fuladi saSualebebis mozidvaa. isini iReben mosaxleobis anabrebs

mimdinare da sxva angariSebze, gamoyofen samomxmareblo kredits,

uSveben sakredito baraTebs.

4. Sesasrulebeli operaciebis mixedviT:

universaluri. isini asruleben operaciebis mraval saxeobas da

momsaxurebas uweven klientebis farTo wres;

specializebuli. maTi saqmianoba ZiriTadad orientirebulia Tavisi

klientebis umetesobisaTvis momsaxurebis erTi-ori saxeobis

gawevaze. specializebuli bankebis sxva tipad SeiZleba iyos banki,

romelic emsaxureba klientebis mxolod gansazRvrul kategorias

(sabirJo, kooperatiuli) an gansazRvrul dargebs (dargobrivi

specializacia).

garda amisa specializebuli bankebis dayofa xorcieldeba teritoriuli

specializaciis niSniT:

regionaluri;

ragionTaSorisi;

saerTaSoriso.

sabanko operaciebi iyofa pasiurze da aqtiurze.

pasiuri operaciebi _ esaa bankebis mier, sakredito da sxva aqtiuri

operaciebis gasatareblad resursebis formirebis mizniT, Tavisufali

saSualebebis mozidva.

aqtiuri operaciebi _ esaa arsebuli resursebis ganTavseba grZelvadiani

da moklevadiani kreditebis gacemis, fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebebis da

a.S. meSveobiT.

156

saerTaSoriso sabanko sistemaSi Sedis iseTi bankebi, rogoricaa:

saerTaSoriso sainvesticio banki, Seqmnilia 1970 w. qveynebis

SeTanxmebis safuZvelze, qveynebis grZelvadiani da moklevadiani

dakreditebis mizniT.

ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis saerTaSoriso banki;

ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis Savi zRis banki;

ganviTarebis aziuri banki _ aziisa da Soreuli aRmosavleTis

yveynebisaTvis;

saerTaSoriso angariSsworebis banki.

bankebis, maT saqmianobaSi rogorc Sida bazarze, aseve sagareo

ekonomikur kavSirebSi, daxmarebis gasawevad 1991 wels dafuZnda

komerciuli bankebis saerTaSoriso asociacia. damfuZneblebi arian

centraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebi. am asociaciis ZiriTadi

miznebia:

qveynebisTvis xelSewyoba Tanamedrove sabanko struqturebisa da

bankTaSorisi TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaSi;

urTieT savaWro-ekonomikuri kavSirebis mxardaWera da gafarToveba

damfuZnebel qveynebs da agreTve maT da dasavleTis qveynebs Soris

fuladi sistemebi da fuladi mimoqcevis statistika

finansuri statistikis erT-erTi globaluri mimarTulebaa qveynis

fuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Seswavla. fuladi mimoqceva _ erovnuli

Semosavlis da sazogadoebrivi produqtis gacvlisa da ganawilebis

aucilebeli pirobaa. fuladi mimoqceva warmoadgens fulis moZraobas da

asrulebs mimoqcevis saSualebis, gadaxdis, fuladi rezervebisa da

danazogebis formirebis funqcias.

operaciebis erToblioba, romlis drosasac ama Tu im formiT

xorcieldeba fuladi saSualebebis moZraoba (gadacema) warmoadgens

fulad brunvas.

157

fuladi brunvis daxasiaTebisas ganasxvaveben naRd fulad brunvas,

romelic xorcieldeba naRdi fuliT, da unaRdo brunva, romelic

xircieldeba unaRdo angariSebis meSveobiT, fuladi saSualebebis

flobelebis mier sakredito dawesebulebebSi gaxsnili angariSebis

mixedviT Sesabamisi operaciebis ganxorcielebis gziT.

fuladi mimoqceva moicavs, rogorc saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

moZraobas, aseve sasesxo da fiqtiuri kapitalis (fasiani qaRaldebis)

moZraobas.

sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi sagadasxdelo brunvis mniSvnelovani

nawili modis finansur operaciebze, e.i. sxvadasxva saxeobis fasiani

qaRaldebis garigebebze, sasesxo operaciebze, sagadasaxdo gadaxdebze da

sxva finansur garigebebze. am dros gadaxdebis mniSvnelovani nawili

xorcieldeba unaRdo formiT.

fuladi mimoqcevis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

fuladi mimoqcevis asaxva da fulis gaufasurebaze moqmedi

faqtrorebis Sefaseba;

bankebis salaroebSi da maTgan naRdi fulis moZraobis arxebis

gamovlena;

fulad mimoqcevaSi sezonuri ryevebis gansazRvra;

emisiis moTxovnilebis da mimoqcevidan fulis amoRebis

aucileblobis gansazRvra;

mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da xarjebis balansis analizi.

fuladi momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs:

fulad brunvas;

naRd fuls sabanko sistemis gareT;

unaRdo saSualebebs;

fulis mimoqevis siCqares;

brunvis xangrZlivobas;

fuladi masis kupiurul agebulobas;

158

indeqs-deflators;

laris msyidvelobiT unars;

angariSebze saxelmwifos oqros maragebiT, depozitebiT

operaciebis amsaxvel maCveneblebs;

saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobebSi valutasTan operaciebis

amsaxvel maCveneblebs.

mocemuli maCvenebelTa sistema efuZneba fulis iseT funqciebTan

dakavSirebul kategoriebs, rogoricaa Rirebulebis sazomi, mimoqcevis

saSualeba, gadaxdis, dagrovebisa da danazogis saSualeba.

fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvenelovani raodenobrivi maCvenebelia fuladi

masa, romelic warmoadgens sameurneo brunvis momsaxure da

saxelmwifos, kerZo pirebisa da dawesebulebebis kuTvnili

msyidvelobiTi da sagadasaxdelo saSualebebis erTobliv moculobas.

gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis da gansazRvrul periodSi fuladi

mimoqcevis raodenobrivi cvlilebebis analizisaTvis da agreTve fuladi

masis moculobis da zrdis tempebis regulirebis RonisZiebebis

SesamuSaveblad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva maCvenebeli _ fuladi agregatebi.

mTliani fuladi masa SeiZleba warmovidginoT, rogorc fuladi

agregatebis erToblioba, romelSic yoveli momdevno agregati moicavs

wina agregats.

TiToeul qveyanaSi arsebobs, likvidurobis donis mixedviT,

detalizaciis xarisxiT gansxvavebuli, fuladi agregatebis sakuTari

sistema. fulad masaSi ganasxvaveben:

aqtiur fuls (mosaxurebas uwevs naRd da unaRdo brunvas);

pasiur fuls (dagroveba, rezervebi, naSti angariSebze), romlTa

potenciuri gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia angariSsworebisaTvis.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi mTliani fuladi masa likvidurobis donis

mixedviT iyofa fulad agregatebze.

159

MO _ esaa naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi. naRdi fuladi masa Sedgeba

mosaxleobis xelT arsebuli naRdi fulisagan, iuridiuli pirebis

salaroebSi fuladi naStisa da sabanko dawesebulebebis sabrunav

salaroebSi arsebuli naRdi fulisagan.

mosaxleobaSi naRdi fulis arseboba imis Sedegia, rom fulis miReba da

daxarjva droSi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva. mosaxleobis naRdi fulis

raodenoba damokidebulia fuladi Semosavlebis moculobaze, maTi

miRebis sixSireze, saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT uzrunvelyofadobaze da

a.S.

naRdi fulis arsebobas adgili aqvs organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis

salaroebSi, maT mier sakaso operaciebis normaluri warmoebisaTvis.

fuladi agregati M1 = MO + depoziti moTxovnamde (angariSebi

moTxovnamde da saSualebebis naSts dawesebulebebis, opganizaciebisa da

sawarmoebis angariSze).

fuladi agregati M1 asrulebs fuladi masis sididis dominirebuli

maCveneblis rols. saxeldobr, agregati M1 axdens mTliani Sida

produqtis, erovnuli Semosavalis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis,

dagrovebisa da moxmarebis realizaciis operaciebis momsaxurebas. am

maCveneblis statistikuri aRricxva uzrunvelyofilia imiT, rom fulis

mniSvnelovani masa gadis depozituri dawesebulebebis angariSebiT.

agregati M1 moicavs fuladi brunvis yvela im saSualebebs, romelic

SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes konversiis, winaswari gayidvebis gareSe an

romelime sxva finansuei operaciis gaangarisebebSi da xasiaTdeba didi

likvidurobiT. fuladi masis danarCeni maCveneblebi SeiZleba

gamoyenebuli iqnes, gadasaxadebis saxiT, mxolod rigi Sualeduri

operaciebis Semdeg.

fuladi agregati M2 = M1 + uvado depozitebi. uvado depozitebi _ esaa

Semnaxvel da komerciul bankebSi iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis vadian

160

angariSebze (3 wlamde) narCeni saSualebebi. Tavisi SedgenilobiT M2

ramdenime jer aRemateba agregat M1.

fuladi agregati M3 = M2 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis sxva

depozitebi (sadazRvevo polisebi, fizikuri pirebis anabrebi 3 welze

meti vadiT, bankebis rezervebi da a.S.).

fuladi agregati M4 = M3+ saSualebebi fasian qaRaldebSi (aqciebi.

obligaciebebi, veqsili, da a.S.)

fuladi agregati M5 = M4 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis saSualebebi

ucxour valutaSi.

fuladi agregatebi agebulia maTi likvidobis klebadobis wesiT.

agregatebs Soris aucilebelia wonasworoba, sxvanairad dairRveva

fuladi mimoqceva.

saerTaSoriso standartebi iTvaliswineben 4-dan 7-mde fulad agregats.

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi fuladi masa nawildeba agregatebis sxvadasxva

ricxvebad. gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikaSi

upiratesobas aniWeben agregats, romelic aerTianebs naRd da depozitur

fuls. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi yvela qveynisaTvis gaiangariSebs

saerTo agregat M1, romelic moicavs naRd fuls da Cekuri anabrebis

yvela saxeobas.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciiT gaiangariSeba:

viwro fuli (agregati M1 saSualebebi);

kvazi-fuli (uvado da saSemnaxvelo sabanko angariSebi da bazarze

formirebadi yvelaze likviduri finansuri operaciebi);

farTo fuli = viwro fuli + kvazi-fuli.

zemoT CamoTvlili fuladi agregatebi _ esaa samomento maCveneblebi,

gaangariSebuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis (bolosaTvis). mTeli rigi

gaTvlebisaTvis saWiroa agregatebis saSualo zomaze monacemebi

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periodis ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneben martivi saSualo

ariTmetikulis formulas:

iM_

= iM (peiodis dasawyisisaTvis) + iM (peiodis bolosaTvis)/2.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba Sesabamisi fuladi agregatis

wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. es maCvenebeli iwodeba monetarizaciis

(monetizaciis) koeficientad da axasiaTebs realizebuli mSp-s im nawils,

romelis uzrunvelyofa xdeba Sesabamisi agregatiT:

monetizaciis koeficienti = iM / mSp.

magaliTad, Tu agregati M1 Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan Seadgens

20%, maSin amboben, rom mSp-s 20% realizaciis uzrunvelyofa xdeba am

agregatiT.

monetizaciis koeficienti aris fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani

indikatori, ramdenadac misi donis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia mxolod

saerTaSoriso SedarebebiT. ganviTarebul qveynebSi monetizaciis

koeficienti (gaangariSebuli agregati M2 safuZvelze) Seadgens 60-dan

80%- mde.

mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenoba damokidebulia Semdeg faqtorebze:

mSp-is sidideze;

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqareze.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare xasiaTdeba ori maCvenebliT:

fuladi masis brunvis raodenobiT (br.r.);

erTi brunvis xangrZlivobiT (x.br.).

fuladi masis brunvis raodenoba ganisazRvreba mTliani Sida

produqtis zomis SefardebiT fuladi masis saSualo zomasTan (_

M ):

162

r.br. = mSp/_

M .

brunvadobis koeficienti uCvenebs saSualod Tu ramdeni brunva

ganaxorciela fuladma masam wlis ganmavlobaSi, sxva sityvebiT _ wlis

ganmavlobaSi ramdenjer iqna gamoyenebuli valuta saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis Sesasyidad. brunvis ricxvis zrdisas matulobs fuladi

masis mimoqcevis siCqare. es aris fuladi masis siCqaris maxasiaTebeli

pidapiri maCvenebeli.

erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi (D) periodSi sabanko

dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvis raodenobasTan.

x.br.= D/r.br.

saerTaSoriso standartebiT weliwadSi sabanko dReebis raodenoba

tolia 360 dRis, kvartalSi _ 180 dRis, TveSi _ 30 dRis. Ees maCvenebeli

axasiaTebs ramden dReSi ganxorcielda fuladi masis erTi brunva. Tu

dReebis raodeniba mcirdeba es niSnavs imas, rom erTi da igive

moculobis mTliani Sida produqtis momsaxurebisaTvis saWiroa naklebi

dReebi. es brunvis siCqaris uku maCvenebelia.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba iwvevs misi brunvidan

amoRebas (mimoqcevaSi gaSvebis), romelic ganisazRvreba formuliT:

M = (x.br.1 _ x.br.0)* mSp/D,

sadac mSp/D _ saangariSo periodSi mTliani Sida produqtis erTdRiuri

realizaciis zomaa.

am maCveneblebis gaangariSeba ganvixiloT cxrilSi motanili monacemebis

safuZvelze.

ori periodis fuladi masa da mTliani Sida produqti

maCveneblebi sabaziso periodi saangariSo periodi

163

mSp, f.e. 740 754

Fuladi masa, f.e. 280 320

gaviangariSoT brunvadobis koeficienti:

1. sabaziso periodSi: Kbr0 = 740/280=2,6 jer;

2. saangariSo periodSi: Kbr1 = 754/320=2,4 jer;

es niSnavs imas ,rom fuladi masa sabaziso periodSi dabrunda 2,6 jer,

saangariSo periodSi ki 2,4 jer (e.i. mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda).

gaviangariSoT erTi brunvis xaangrZlivoba

1. sabaziso periodSi: x.br.0 = 360/2,6=138,5 dRe;

2. saangariSo periodSi: x.br1 = 360/2,4=150 dRe;

vinaidan fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda, 754 f.e. zomis

mTliani Sida produqtis realizaciis uzrunvelsayofad saWiro gaxda

damtebiT fulis Tanxis CarTva, romelic tolia:

M = (150 _ 138,5)*754/360 =24,1 f.e.

brunvadobis koeficienti da erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba

urTierTakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan. es niSnavs imas, rom Tu mocemuli

maCveneblebidan cnobilia erTi, maSin SeiZleba meores povna. ase, Tu

cnobilia brunvaTa ricxvi, maSin erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba (x.br)

SeiZleba vipovoT Semdegnairad:

x.br.= D/ Kbr =360/2,6=138,5 dRe.

Tu cnobilia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba, maSin brunvaTa ricxvi

moiZebneba formuliT:

r.br. = D/ = x. br =360/138,5=2,6jer.

saangariSo periodSi fuladi masis brunvaTa raodenobis cvlileba

sabazisoTan SedarebiT ganpirobebulia ori faqtoris gavleniT: mTliani

Sida produqtis da mimoqcevaSi fuladi masis zomis cvlilebebiT.

164

pirveli faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:

r.br.(mSp) = mSp1 _ mSp0 / 1M = 754 _ 740/320 = 0,04jer.

meore faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:

r.br.(M ) = mSp0 / 1M _ mSp0/ 0M = 740/320 _ 740/280 = _0,33jer,

sadac 1M da 0M _ fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso

periodebSi.

am dros unda iyos daculi Semdegi toloba:

r.br. = r.br.(mSp) +r.br.(M ), 2,4 _ 2,6 = 0,04+ (_0,33).

gansxvaveba ganpirobebulia damrgvalebebiT.

maSasadame, fuladi masis 40 f.e. gadidebam gamoiwvia misi brunvis

siCqaris 0,33 brunviT Semcireba, xolo mSp-is gadidebam 0,04 brunviT

gazarda mimoqcevis siCqare.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris Seswavlisas gansakuTrebulad

mniSvnelovania naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizi, e.i. agregati

MO. fuladi masidan am agregatis gamoyofiT, miviRebT fuladi masis

mimoqcevis siCqaris models: mSp/M= mSp/ MO* MO/ M.

am modelis Cawera SeiZleba gamartivebuli saxiT: r.br= a*b, sadac MO/ M

aris naRdi fulis wili saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevaSi.

es modeli iZleva naRdi filis brunvis siCqaris (a) da saerTo fulad

masaSi maTi wilis (b) cvliebebiT ganpirobebuli fulis mimoqcevis

siCqaris absoluturi matebis gansazrvris saSualebas.

saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi cvlileba

ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad: r.br. = r.br1 _ r.br0.

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (a) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(a). = (a1 _ a0)* b1

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (b) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(b) = (b1 _ b0)* a1

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fuladi saSualebebis yidva-gayidvisas yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi

saprocento ganakvTebis saxeobebis sistematizireba SesaZlebelia

Semdegi niSnebiT:

1. sasesxo kapitalis bazris seqtorisadmi mikuTvnebulobaze

damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben: saaRricxvo ganakveTs

(refinansirebis ganakveTi, oficialuri saprocento ganakveTebi);

sakredito resursebis miwodebis bankTaSorisi ganakveTebs;

sabaziso ganakveTebs; fizikuri pirebis, mcire da saSualo biznesis

dakreditebis ganakveTs; depozitur ganakveTs;

2. procentebis daricxvis bazaze damokidebulebis mixedviT

ganasxvaveben: martiv saprocento ganakveTebs; rTul saprocento

ganakveTebs.

3. gacemuli fuladi saSualebebis gamoyenebaze Semosavlis gadaxdis

an procentebis daricxvis momentze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben:

antisipativur saprocento ganakveTebs; dekursul saprocento

ganakveTebs.

4. procentis daricxvisas garigebis funqcionirebis dReebis ricxvis

gamoyenebaze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben: Cveulebriv saprocento

ganakveTebs; wertilovan saprocento ganakveTebs.

5. inflaciuri procesebis gavlenaze damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben:

nominalur saprocento ganakveTebs; realur saprocento

ganakveTebs.

inflaciis donis maxasiaTebeli maCveneblebi da maTi

gaangariSebis meTodika

inflacia aris rTuli cneba, romelic moicavs:

moTxovnis inflacias (warmoebis vardnisas izrdeba moTxovna

saqonelze. saxezea maTi deficiTi da fasebis Semdgomi zrda);

danaxarjebis inflacias _ fasebis zrda sawarmoo resursebze da

nedleulze;

adaptiur inflaciur molodins (fasebis savaraudo zrdisas ar

xdeba fuladi saxsrebis dagroveba, aramed intensiurad ixarjeba

sasaqonlo-materialur faseulobebze).

166

mimdinareobis xasiaTis mixedviT ganasxvaveben Ria da farul inflacias.

Ria inflacia gansxvavdeba fasebis xangrZlivi zrdiT. faruli

inflaciisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia: saqonlis deficiti, gadadebuli

moTxovna, mudmivi fasebi. Ria inflacia gaizomeba samomxmareblo fasebis

indeqsiT, xolo faruli _ inflaciis indeqsiT.

nebismieri qveynis ekonomikis mdgomareobis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebelia

inflaciis done. inflaciis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba

Semdegi maCveneblebi:

fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris indeqsi;

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi);

mTliani Sida produqtis fasebis indeqsi (deflatori);

fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris indeqsi uCvenebs Tu ramdenjer ufasurdeba

fuladi erTeuli da gaiangariSeba formuliT:

I fulis msyid. unaris =1/ I samomxmareblo fasebis.

urTierTkavSiri fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris, mSp-isa da fuladi masis

moculobas Soris iZleva maTi dinamikis detaluri Seswavlis

saSualebas, romelic warmodgenilia Semdegi saxis damokidebulebiT:

IIII vMp :* mSp,

sadac pI aris mSp-is indeqs-deflatori;

MI _ fuladi masis indeqsi;

vI _ fuladi masis brunvadobis indeqsi;

I mSp _ mTliani Sida produqtis fizikuri moculobis indeqsi.

mTliani Sida produqtis indeqs-deflatori gaiangariSeba formuliT:

,10

11

qP

qPI p (paSes formula)

167

sadac 11qP mSp-is moculobaa mimdinare fasebSi;

10qP mimdinare periodis mSp-is moculoba, gansazRvruli

sabaziso periodis mixedviT (mudmiv fasebSi).

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi uCvenebs, sabaziso moxmarebis donis

ucvlelobis pirobebSi, Tu ramdenad Seicvala mimdinare periodSi

mosaxleobis xarjebi momsaxurebisa da keTildReobis fiqsirebuli

nakrebis SeZenaze sabazisoTan SedarebiT. Dis gaiangariSeba formuliT:

I samomxmareblo fasebis

00

00

qP

qiP (lasperesis formula).

sadac pi arisi dividualuri indeqsi TiToeuli saqonel-warmomadgenelis

mixedviT;

00 pq _ TiToeuli saqonel-warmomadgenelis Rirebuleba.

fuladi masis kupiuruli Semadgenlobis mdgomareobisa da dinamikis

dasaxasiaTeblad da cvlilebebis gamosavlenad saWiroa informacia

saSualo kupiuris sidideze, romlis gaangariSeba SeiZleba Sewonili

saSualo ariTmetikulis formuliT:

_

m = ,

f

mf

sadac m aris kupiuris Rirseba;

f _ kupiurebis raodenoba.

saprocento ganakveTis zoma, nebismieri saxeobis kreditis an

fiqsirebuli Semosvalis instrumentis mixedviT, damokidebulia mTel

rigi faqtorze, maTgan yvelaze mniSvnelovania gaangariSebiTi fuladi

erTeuli, gadasaxdelis vada da msesxeblis mier sakredito SeTanxmebis

pirobebis ar Sesrulebis riski, an defoltis riski.

gaangariSebiTi fuladi erTeuli warmoadgens fulad erTeuls,

romelSic xorcieldeba gadaxdebi. rogorc wesi, gadaxdis erTeuli aris

168

ama Tu im qveynis valuta. zogjer erTeulis saxiT gamodis romelime

saqoneli, magaliTad oqro, vercxli an saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

standartuli ,,kalaTa“.

gadasaxdelis vada fiqsirebuli SemosavliT instrumentebis mixedviT _

esaa dro, romlis ganmavlobaSi saWiroa mTliani nasesxi Tanxis gadaxda.

saprocento ganakveTi moklevadiani instrumentebiT SeiZleba iyos

grZelvadiani instrumewntebis mixedviT ganakveTze maRali, dabali an

misi toli.

msesxeblis mier sakredito SeTanxmebis pirobebis ar Sesrulebis riski

warmoadgens albaTobas imisa, rom fiqsirebuli SemosavliT

instrumentebis mixedviT valis ZiriTadi Tanxa an procentis romelime

nawili ar iqneba gadaxdili msesxeblis mier.

leqcia 9. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi da Taviseburebebi

2. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema 3. saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis informaciis wyaroebi da

ZiriTadi maCveneblebis gaangariSebis meTodika 4. mosaxleobis aRwerebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi etapebi da maTi

daxasiaTeba 5. demografiuli prognozebi

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri

safuZvlebi da Taviseburebebi

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistika statistikuri

mecnierebis damoukidebeli dargia. pirveli naSromebi demogafiaSi jer

kidev me-18s. gaCnda, xolo 1853w. SemuSavebul da miRebul iqna pirveli

saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi xalxTmosaxleobis statistikaSi.

demografiuli statistikis Seswavlis obieqtia gansazRvrul

teritoriaze mcxovreb pirTa erToblioba, e.i mosaxleoba.

169

serTaSoriso statistikur pratikaSi, teritoriis mocvis mixedviT,

gamoyofen:

1. mTlinad dedamiwis mosaxleobas;

2. dedamiwis calkeuli regionebis mosaxleobas;

3. saxelmwifoTaSorisi gaerTianebebis mosaxleobas.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis sagans warmoadgens saerTa _

Soriso doneze mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, Semadgenlobis, moZraobis da

aRwrmoebis cvlilebis raodenobrivi kanonzomierebebi.

ramdenadac materiluri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis mTavari

mwarmoeblebi da momxmareblebi arian adamianebi, amdenad demogrfiuli

procesebis da mTlianad mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis tendenciebi pirdapir

aisaxeba im urTierTobebze, romelic yalibdeba calkeul saxelmwifoebs

Soris, gansakuTrebiT iseT sibrtyeSi, rogoricaa SromiTi migraciis,

warmoebis samuSao ZaliT uzrunvelyofis, erovnuli samomxmareblo

bazrebis parametrebis transformaciis da sxva.

saerTaSoriso demografiul statistikas, xalxTmosaxleobis

mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis donis gamokvlevis Sesatyvisad, gaaCnia

rigi Taviseburebebi.

pirveli, demografiuli procesebisa da movlenebis analizma unda

moicvas sami urTerTdakavSirebuli aspeqti: globaluri, regionaluri da

saxelmwifoTaSorisi.

globaluri aspeqti gulisxmobs demografiuli procesebis gamokvlevas

da im problemebis gaazrebas, romlebic exeba Cveni planetis yvela

mcxovrebs maTi saxelmwoebriv mikuTvenbaze (moqalaqeoba) da

sacxovrebel adgilze damoukideblad. uwinaresd es exeba mTlianad

dedamiwis mosaxleobis ricxovnobis zrdis, misi aRwarmoebis parmetrebis

sakiTxebs, da agreTve adamianuri populaciis raodenobriv Tanafardobas

sursaTis, enrgiis, resursebis da sasargeblo wiaRiseulis maragebTan da

170

a.S. es dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom dedmiwis sivrcebrivi sazRvrebi da

resursebi atareben SezRudul xasiaTs.

regionaluri aspeqti ZiriTdad ukavSirdeba dedamiwis teritoriaze

mosaxleobis ganTavsebis analizs, kontinentTaSorisi migraciuli

nakadebis ganxilvas da dedamiwis sxvdsxva regionSi mosaxleobis

aRwarmoebisa da moZraobis Taviseburebebis gamorkvevas.

saxelmwifoTaSoris aspeqtSi moiazreba rogorc calkeuli

saxelmwifoebis, agreTve sxvadasxva kriteriumiT Seqmnili maTi jgufebis

mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, ganTavsebis, Semadgenlobis, bunebrivi da

migraciuli moZraobis parametrebis SedarebiTi statistikuri

daxasiaTeba. amis aqtualoba ganpirobebuli imiT, rom demografiuli

situaciis specifika ganviTrebul da ganviTrebad qveynebSi, ek-s, nato-s

da sxva politikuri da ekonomikuri gaerTianebis qveynebSi seriozulad

ganaპირობებს saxelmwifoTaSoris urTierTobebs saerTSoriso cxovrebis

yvelaze gansxvavebul dargebSi.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meore mniSvnelovani

Tavisebureba mdgomareobs imaSi rom is umetesad orientirebulia ara

mxolod da ara imdenad calkeuli qveynebis da maTi regionaluri,

politikuri, ekonomikuri da sxva gaerTianebis demografiuli

indikatorebis Sefasebze, ramdenad saerTaSoriso Sedarebebze, romlebic

iZleva msoflio ekonomikaSi maTi rolisa da adgilis garkvevis

SesaZleblobas.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis mesame Tavisebureba ukvSirdeba

misi informaciuli bazis rig SezRudvebs, gamowvels imiT rom msoflios

yvela qveyana ar iTvaliswinebs saerTaSoriso organizaciebis

rekomendaciebs mimarTuls statistikuri aRricxvis, maT Soris

mosaxleobis dargSi standartiszciasa da unificirebaze. ris gamoc

mosaxleobis aRwerebisa da mimdinre aRricxvis orgnizebisadmi

midgomebi, agreTve SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis xerxebi sxvadasxva qveyanaSi

srulad ar emTxeveva erTmaneTs. es garemoeba mniSvnelovnad aisaxeba

171

demografiuli informaciis Sesadarisobaze (aRwerebis Catarebis

periodulobis, vadebis, TariRebis ar damTxvevis Sedegad; bunebrivi da

migrciuli moZraobis ganmartebis gansxvavebuloba da a.S.). Sida

viTarebis Taviseburebebis gamo rig qveyanaSi mosaxleobis statistika

arasruli an nawyvet-nawyveti xasiaTisaa, rac arTulebs, zog SemTxvevaSi

ki SeuZlebels xdis demografiuli situciis statistikuri

daxasiaTebebis miRebas da saeraSoriso Sedarebebis ganxorcielebas.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meoTxe Tavisebureba

mdgomareobs imaSi rom monacemTa publikacias axasiaTebs dagvianebis

xangrZlivi lagi. msoflios yveynebSi demografiul situacize

informacia specialistebisa da farTo sazogdoebisTvis misawvdomia

naxevari - erTi wlis dagvianebiT, saerTaSoriso statistikur

publikaciebs ki axasiaTebs dagvianebis bevrad didi periodi. es

dakvSirebulia demogafiuli moncemebis mopovebis da aseve mis Sesadaris

formaSi moyvanis problemebTan. xSirad saerTaSoriso statistika

iZulebulia gamoiyenos ar empiriuli moncemebi, aramed eqspertuli

Sefasebebi da saprognozo gaangariSebebi, ramdenadac mxolod am

xerxiTaa SesaZlebeli mosaxleobze aqtualuri monacemebis miReba

Znelad misawvdom raionebSi da saomari moqmedebiTa da epideemiiT

mocul saxelmwifoebSi.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi

emyareba saerTaSoriso socialuri statistikis meTodologias da

mkacrad dacul maCvenebelTa sistemas, romelic axasiaTebs socialur

urTierTobaTa cvlilebis dinamikas, dones, struqturas da maTi

kavSirebis kanonzomierebebs drosa da sivrceSi.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs

oTx ganyofilebas:

1. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis, Semadgenlobis da ganTavsebis

maCveneblebi:

172

gansazRvrul teritorize mcxovrebi sxvadasxva jgufis

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba da xvedriTi wona;

mosaxleobis faqtiuri simWidrove;

mosaxleobis ganawileba qveynis regionebsa da dasaxlebis

tipebs Soris;

mosaxleobis Semadgenloba sqesis, asakis, qorwinebis,

ojaxuri mdgomareobis, erovnebis, enis, aRsareblobis

mixedviT da sxv.

am ganyofilebis daxasiaTebebi asaxavs mosaxleobis faqtiurad miRweul

mdgomareobas.

2. mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis maCveneblebi:

Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da ganqorwinebis

ricxovnoba;

mosaxleobis Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da

ganqorwinebis saerTo koeficientebi;

mosaxleobis Sobadobis, mokvdavobis, qorwinebis da

ganqorwinebis asakobrivi koeficientebi;

mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis koeficienti;

Sobdobis speciluri koeficienti;

Sobadobis jamuri koeficienti;

Cvil bavSvTa mokdavobis koeficienti;

sicocxlianobis indeqsi da sxv.

3. mosxleobis migraciuli moZrobis maCveneblebi;

SemosulTa da gasulTa ricxovnoba;

migraciis saldo;

mosaxleobis Semosvlisa da gasvlis saerTo koeficientebi;

mosaxleobis migraciuli matebis koeficienti;

migraciis efeqturoba da sxv.

meore da mesame ganyofilebis maCveneblebi axdenen, migraciuli da

bunebrivi moZraobis xarjze, sazogadoebrivi ganviTarebis fqtorebis

mxasiaTebeli parametrebis akumulirebas.

4. sazogadoebis demografiuli ganviTarebis Sedegebisa da

aRwarmoebis maCveneblebi:

mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto da bruto koeficientebi;

173

mosxleobis mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo

xangrZlivoba;

mosaxleobis saerTo absoluturi mateba (kleba);

mosaxleobis ricxovnobis zrdis (matebis) tempi;

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri da demografiuli datvirTvis

koeficientebi da sxv.

meoTxe gnyofilebis maCveneblebi orientirebulia Taobis Canacvlebis da

mosxleobis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis cvlilebis ganmapirobebeli

demografiuli procesebis urTierTqmedebis SedegebTa ganzogdebul

Sefasebaze.

saerTaSoriso demografiuli statistikis informaciis wyaroebi da

ZiriTadi maCveneblebis gaangariSebis meTodika

mosaxleobaze informaciis miRebis sami wyaro arsebobs:

aRwera;

mimdinare aRricxva;

mosaxleobis SerCeviTi gamokvleva

demografiuli prognozebi.

mosaxleobis aRwera aris mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da Semadgenlobaze

monacemTa Segrovebis, ganzogadebis da analizis mecnierulad

organizebuli procesi. aRwera udavod iZleva yvelaze srul

demografiul suraTs, ramdenadac axasiaTebs, drois gansazRvruli

momentis mdgomareobiT, qveynis yovel mcxovrebs. am periodamde

gardacvlilebi an am periodis Semdeg dabadebulebi ar aRiricxeba.

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRwera iZleva mosaxleobis momentur suraTs.

monacebi, romelic surT miiRon arweris Sedegad SeaqvT egreT wodebul

aRweris programaSi. qveynebis umetesobaSi aRweris programis kiTxvebis

dagzavna xdeba fostiT anketebis saxiT. zogjer moiTxoven masSi ara

marto dabadebis TariRis, sqesis, asakis, qorwinebis, bavSvebis

raodenobis, aramed dasaqmebis saxeobis, dasaqmebaSi mdgomareobis

(mesakuTre an daqiravebuli muSaki), Semosavlis wyaros miTiTebas. garda

174

amisa, aRweris programa moicavs kiTxvebs mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis

codnis, profesiuli kvalifikaciis, swavlebis wlebis ricxvze.

aRwerebis Catarebis praqtikaSi arc Tu ise iSviaTia kiTxvebi

moqalaqeobaze, omSi monawileobaze, fsiqiur da fizikur naklovanebebze

da agreTve aRmsareblobaze, mSobliur da sasaubro enaze da sxv.

CamoTvlil sakiTxebs emateba kidev erTi savaldebulo _ aRweris

kritikuli momentisaTvis mcxovrebis adgilsamyofeli (arweris zusti

TariRisaTvis). amdagvarad xdeba mosaxleobis aRricxva, misi mudmivi

sacxovrebeli adgilis, da agreTve saxlis gareT yofnis xangrZlivobis

mixedviT. am monacemebis safuZvelze igeba Sida da gare migraciis ruqebi.

Tu aRweris programaSi aris Setanili kiTxva samuSaos an swavlebis

adgilis daSorebaze, maSin Rebuloben monacemebs egreT wodebul

qanqarisebriv migraciaze. zogjer, ufro dawvrilebiTi informaciis

dasamuSaveblad, programaSi SeaqvT qorwinebaSi yofnis welTa ricxvi,

qorwinebis ricxvi, ganqorwinebis mizezebi. gvxvdeba cxovrebis pirobebis

gamokvlevebic: oTaxebis raodenoba, romelic ukavia ojaxs, gaTbobis

wyaro da a.S.

rogorc Cans aRweris programis motanili kiTxvebi ZiriTadad exeba

sazogadoebis saerTo demografiul parametrebs. praqtikaSi es

gamokvleva iZleva ufro Rrma msjelobis saSualebas. am dros unda

avRniSnoT rom, rodesac aRwera iZleva socialur-ekonomikuri xasiaTis

specifikur informacias, gamodian konkretuli erovnuli situaciidan.

magaliTad, Tu aSS mniSvnelovania gare migraciis sakiTxebi, maSin

aRweraSi aucilebelia kiTxva wina sacxovrebel adgilze. indoeTSi erT-

erTi mTavari sakiTxia eTnikuri mikuTvnebis sakiTxi, aRmosavleTis

zogierTi qveqnisTvis ki _ aRmsareblobis sakiTxi.

swored demografiul infmaciaze moTxovnilebam sawyisi Cauyara

saaRwero statistikas, romlis warmoeba daiwyo jer kidev me-3 s. C.w.a.

aziis saxelmwifoebSi.

175

mosaxleobis mimdinare aRricxva warmoebs aRwerebs Soris periodSi. is

gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis bolo aRweris monacemebis yovelwliuri

koreqtirebisaTvis.

koreqtirebis arsi mdgomareobs imasSi, rom ama Tu im teritoriaze

mcxovrebTa ricxvs emateba dabadebulTa da CamosulTa ricxvi da

akldeba gardacvlilTa da gasul mcxovrebTa ricxvi. aRweris

monacemebis koreqtireba tardeba yoveli wlis 1 ianvris mdgomareobiT. am

dros erTi wliT adre dgindeba mosaxleobis ricxovnobis savaraudo

cvlilebis varianti. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sefasebas axdenen ori

kategoriis mixedviT: mudmiv da saxeze myofis. maT Soris sxvaoba

pirobiTad miiReba ucvlel doneze. mimdinare wlis dekemberSi

mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sefasebisas gamoiyeneba 10 Tvis ganmavlobaSi

mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis Sedegi (dabadebulTa ricxvs

gamoklebuli gardacvlilTa ricxvi), romlis gadatana xdeba momaval

welze, da mimdinare wlis 9 Tvis migraciis Sedegebi, romelic aseve

eqstrapolirdeba Semdeg welze. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis saboloo

Sefasebisas, rogorc wesi, martSi, gamoiyeneba eqspertuli koreqtirebis

monacemebi, romelic iZleva demografiuli movlenebis aRricxvisas

daSvebuli Secdomebis aRmofxvris saSualebas.

amdagvarad, mosaxleobis sayovelTao aRwerebs Soris SualedebSi

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba ganisazrvreba gaangariSebiTi gziT bolo

aRweris monacemebisa da mosaxleobis bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobis

monacemebis safuZvelze sabalaso sqemiT:

wlis dasawyisisaTvis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba + wlis ganmavlobaSi

dabadebulTa ricxvi + wlis ganmavlobaSi SemosulTa ricxvi _ wlis

ganmavlobaSi gardacvlilTa ricxvi _ wlis ganmavlobaSi gasulTa

ricxvi = wlis bolosTvis mosaxleobis ricxvs.

aSkaraa, rom mosaxleobis sayovelTao aRwerasa da mis mimdinare

aRricxvas Soris arsebobs pirdapiri kavSiri.

176

mosaxleobaze da demogrfiul procesebze damatebiTi, magram

mniSvnelovani wyaroa mosaxleobis SerCeviTi gamokvleva. amdgavri

gamokvlevebis programebi atareben ufro detalur xasiaTs vidre

mosxleobis aRweris progrmebi. gamokvlevebi, dafuZnebuli SerCeviT

meTodze frTodaa gavrcelebuli msoflios sxvdasxva qveynis

statistikur praqtikaSi.

mrval qveyanaSi funqcionirebs mosaxleobis ricxovnobis calkeul

daxasiaTebebTan SekavSirebiT gaangariSebis instumenti _ mosaxleobis

registri. esaa regularulad aqtivizirebadi qveynis macxovreblebis

CamonaTvali, romelic moicavs kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili personaluri

daxasiaTebebis nakrebs da gamoiyeneba saxelmwifo marTvis miznebisaTvis.

aRricxvis am saxeobis Tavisebureba mdgomareobs, yoveli mcxovrebisTvis

araganmeorebadi saidetifikacio nomris miniWebis gziT, individualuri

moncemebis Senaxvasa da regulrul ganaxlebSi. evropis im qveynebis

gamocdileba, romlebic awarmoeben mosaxleobis registrs, adasturebs,

rom mosaxleobis erovnul (centralur) registrSi monacemebi

aqtualizdeba mosaxleobze monacemebis Semcvel specializirebul

registrebTan urTierTqmedebiT, magaliTad uZravi qonebis registrTan,

socialuri dazRvevis registrTan, gadasaxadis gadamxdelTa registrTan

da sxv.

demografiuli monacemebis miRebis mesame wyaroa mosaxleobis

perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebebi (demogrfiuli prognozebi),

romlebic keTdeba, rogorc aRwerebis, aseve mimdinare statistikuri

aRicxvis monacemebis safuZvelze.

mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gasangariSeblad gamoiyeneba

asakis mixedviT gadaadgilebis (asakgadanacvlebis) meTodi. am meTodis

arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom Tavis asakobriv jgufSi aRweriT

daregistrirebuli adamianTa gansazRvruli raodenoba (SX, t) erTi wlis

Semdeg gadadis DSemdeg asakobriv jgufSi, magram ara mTlianad, aramed

gardacvlilTa gamoklebiT, romelic gaiangariSeba mokvdavobis cxrilis

mixedviT asakmiRwevis koeficientis safuZvelze (PX). Tu (SX, t)

177

gadavamravlebT (PX), maSin miviRebT erTi wlis Semdeg momdevno

asakobriv jgufSi mcxovrebTa ricxvs (SX+1, t +1). momdevno wlebisaTvis

mosaxleobis ricxovnobis gansasazRvrelad es operacia meordeba, am

dros xdeba kidev migraciis saldosa (Semusulebsa da gasulebs Soris

sxvaoba) da dabadebulTa mosalodneli ricxovnobis gaTvaliswineba.

dabadebulTa mosalodneli ricxovnoba miiReba, rogorc fertiluri

asakis (15 _ 49 weli) qalebis ricxovnobisa da, Sobadobis cxrilis

mixedviT TiToeuli asakis Sesatyvisi, Sobadobis koeficientis namravli.

mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis gaangariSebis formulas gaaCnia

Sendegi saxe:

(SX+1, t +1) =(SX, t)* P(X, t)+W(X, t),

sadac W(X, t) aris mosaxleobis meqanikuri moZraobis saldo.

asakgadanacvlebis meTodi da eqstrapolacia dasaSvebia moklevadiani (5

wlamde periodis momcveli) prognozebis gaangariSebisas. Tu

perspeqtiuli gaangariSeba warmoebs ufro xangrZlivi periodisaTvis, e.i.

rogorc grZelvadiani prognozi, maSin, rogorc wesi, gamoiyeneba

scenarebis meTodi.

scenaris meTodis dros aucilebelia saprognozo Sefasebebis sami

variantis Sedgena, romlebic iTvaliswineben demografiul procesebTan

dakavSirebul da maT ganviTarebaze moqmedi ori faqtoris Sesatyvis

cvlilebebs. zustad aseT meTodikas iyeneben gaeros statistikuri

organizaciebi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis prognozebis Sedgenisas. isini

gaiangariSeben samscenariul prognozs: optimisturs, pesimisturs da

saSualos. dResdReobiT gaeros demografiuli prognozebi iTvleba

yvelaze saimedod da didi avtoritetiT sargemloben mosaxleobaSi.

Sobadobis koeficienti ganiszRvrerba wlis manZilze dabadebulTa

ricxvis SefardebiT gardacvalebulTa ricxvze da 1000-ze gamravlebiT,

anu gamoisaxeba promileebSi 0 )00

0( .

178

mokvdaobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze gardacvalebulTa

ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxovnobaze (wlis

dasawyisisa da bolosaTvis ricxovnobis sxvaoba gayofili orze) da 1000-

ze gadamravlebiT.

bunebrivi moZraobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze bunebrivi

moZraobis absoluturi matebis (sxvaoba dabadebulTa ricxvsa da

gardacvalebulTa ricxvs Soris) gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur

ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.

qorwinebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze daqorwinebulTa

ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze

gadamravlebiT.

ganqorwinebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba wlis manZilze

ganqorwinebulTa ricxvis gayofiT mosaxleobis saSualowliur

ricxovnobaze da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.

aRniSnuli SefardebiTi maCveneblebi agebulia mosaxleobis

saSualowliur ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT, amitom maT uwodeben saerTo

koeficientebs.

Tu ki msgavs gaangariSebebs vawarmoebT mosaxleobis struqturuli

qvedanayofebis mixedviT miviRebT bunebrivi moZraobis specialur (kerZo)

koeficientebs.

Sobadobis specialuri koeficienti ganiszRvrerba wlis manZilze

dabadebulTa ricxvis SefardebiT 15-49 wlamde asakis saSualowliur

ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT.

bavSvTa mokvdaobis specialuri koeficienti ganisazRvreba mocemul

wels 1 wlamde asakis gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvis SefardebiT

dabadebulTa ricxvTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. am SemTxvevaSi

179

gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom 1 wlamde gardacvlilebidan nawili ekuTvnis

mimdinare, nawili _ gasul wels dabadebulebs. amitom bavSvTa

mokvdaobis specialuri koeficienti Rebulobs Semdeg saxes:

1000

3

1

3

201

1

NN

mKM

,

sadac MK aris bavSvTa mokvdaobis pecialuri koeficienti;

1m _ 1 wlamde asakis gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvi;

1N _ mocemul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi;

0N _ gasul wels dabadebulTa ricxvi.

Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis Tanafardobis dasaxasiaTeblad mosaxleobis

statistikaSi xSirad gaiangariSeba sicocxlianobis koeficienti,

romelic miiReba dabadebulTa ricxvis gardacvlilTa ricxvTan

SefardebiT da gamoisaxeba procentebSi.

mokvdaobis detaluri Seswavla xorcieldeba cxrilis meSveobiT. misi

ZiriTadi maCveneblebia: asakmiRweulTa ricxvi da asakmiRwevis albaToba;

gardacvlilTa ricxvi da mokvdaobis albaToba; X asakis mosaxleobis

ricxvi; nacxovreb kac welTa ricxvi; momavali sicocxlis saSualo

xangrZlivoba.

asakmiRweulTa ricxvi gviCvenebs 10000 mcxovrebidan ramdeni icocxlebs

TiToeul Semdgom 1 wlamde, 2 wlamde, 20 wlamde ... 60 wlamde da a.S.

asakmiRwevis albaToba sicocxlis momdevno asakis Sesrulebamde

albaTobaa, e.i. X askidan 1X askamde. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

x

x

xl

lP 1 ,

sadac xP aris momdevno asakamde sicocxlis albaToba;

1xl _ 1X askamde mcxovrebTa ricxvi;

xl _ X askamde mcxovrebTa ricxvi.

gardacvlilTa ricxvi gviCvenebs ramdeni gardaicvleba X asakidan X+1

askamde.

180

mokvdaobis albaToba momdevno asakis Sesrulebamde mokvdaobis

albaTobaa.

X asakis mosaxleobis ricxvi gaiangariSeba mocemul da Semdgom wels

miRweulTa saSualo maCvenebliT.

nacxovreb kac welTa ricxvi )( xT gaiangariSeba asaks miRweulTa

nacxovreb welTa saerTo ricxviT X asakidan sazRvriTi asakis CaTvliT

).( xx lT

momavali sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba axasiaTebs gansazRvrul

asaks miRweulTa an dabadebulTa sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobas. es

maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba axaldabadebulTaTvis da Semdgom asakamde

miRweulTaTvis cal-calke.

momavali sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba )( 0

xl dgindeba mocemul

asakamse miRweulTa mier am asakidan sazRvriT asakamde sicocxlis

kac/welTa ricxvis )( xT gayofiT am asakamde miRweulTa ricxvze )( xl :

x

x

xl

Tl 0 .

daqorwinebulTa da ganqorwinebulTa absoluturi da SefardebiTi

maCveneblebi. absoluturi maCvenebelia daqorwinebulTa da

ganqorwinebulTa ricxvi wlis manZilze. Tu maT calcalke SevafardebT

mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobasTan da gadavamravlebT 1000-ze,

miviRebT daqorwinebis an ganqorwinebis saerTo koeficients.

migraciis absoluturi (CamosulTa da waulTa ricxvi) da SefardebiTi

maCveneblebi. es ukanaskneli SeiZleba gaviangariSoT absoluturi

maxasiaTeblebis SefardebiT mocemul teritoriaze mcxovrebTa saSualo

wliur ricxovnobasTan da 1000-ze gadamravlebiT. TiToeuli maTgani

SeiZleba gaviangariSoT migraciis mizezebis, sqesis, asakis, erovnebis da

sxv. niSnebis mixedviT.

181

mosaxleobis zemoTmotanili maCveneblebi axasiaTebs mimdinare da

warsul periodSi mosaxleobis bunebriv da meqanikur moZraobas.

mosaxleobis aRwerebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi

etapebi da maTi da xasiaTeba

aRweris Tanamedrove istoriaSi gamoiyofa sami etapi.

pirvel etapi _ me-18s. bolo _ me-19s. pirveli naxevari. am periodSi

Caeyara safuZveli aRweris organizacias, misi programebis gansazRvras.

maSin aSS da inglisSi aRwerebi tardeboda yovel 10 weliwadSi erTxel,

regularulad 5 wlis SualediT _ safrangeTsa da SvedeTSi, avstriaSi 3

_ 4 wlis periodulobiT. aRwerebi iyo araregularuli norvegiaSi,

islandiaSi, daniaSi. am etapze aRwerebi, rogorc wesi, ar moicavda

mTlian mosaxleobas. magaliTad, aSS-Si 1790 wlis arwera aRricxavda

mxolod ojaxebis meTaurebs, TeTri qalebisa da zangebis ricxovnobas.

safrangeTis 1801 wlis aRwera svamda mxolod or kiTxvas: sqess da

qorwinebis mdgomareobas. inglisis 1801 wlis aRweris programa exeboda

mxolod meurneoebis meTauris vaWrobisadmi, miwaTmoqmedebisadmi an

mrewvelobisadmi mikuTvnebis sakiTxs.

aRwerebis msoflio ganviTarebis meore etapi grZeldeboda me-19s. meore

naxevridan _ me-20s. pirvel naxevramde. am periodSi aRwerebi ukve

tardeboda evropis yvela qveyanaSi, amerikis kontinentze, da agreTve

aziasa da afrikaSi. aRwerebis programebis SemuSavebaSi didi damsaxureba

aqvs belgiel mecniers a. keTles. man SeimuSava aRwerebis erTdRian

vadaSi Catarebis safuZvlebi belgiaSi 1848 wels da pirvelad

gaiTvaliswina saxeze myofi mosaxleoba. faqtiurad am periodidan iwyeba

sazRvargareTuli aRwerebis iseTi Tanamedrove principebis Camoyalibeba,

rogoricaa erTdRiuroba, TviTgamoTvla (anketebis Sevsebis gziT), wera-

kiTxvis codnis, migraciis, Sobadobis, mokvdavobis da a.S. aucilebeli

Seswavla. garda saxeze myofi mosaxleobisa calke kategoriad gamoiyofa

mudmivi mosaxleoba.

182

aRwerebis Catarebisa da misi Sedegebis damuSavebis mecnieruli

dasabuTeba mocemuli iqna briuselSi 1853 wels Catarebul

saerTaSoriso statistikuri kongresis pervel sesiaze da Semdgom

petrburgSi 1872 wels Catarebul sesiaze. dazustebuli iqna aRsaricxavi

mosaxleobis ZiriTadi kategoriebi, aRricxvis programisadmi

moTxovnilebebi, aRricxvis perioduloba.

mosaxleobis aRricxvis Teoriisa da praqtikis ganviTarebis mesame etapi

daiwyo me-20s. Sua xanebSi, rodesac aRwerebis Catareba ganxorcielda

arabul qveynebSic. am etapze didi yuradReba eqceva mosaxleobis

aRricxvis iseT aspeqtebs, rogoricaa dasaqmeba, migracia. aSS_Si,

iaponiaSi, germaniaSi, filipinebSi, indoeTSi aRiricxeba mxolod mudmivi

mosaxleoba. im dros rodesac didbritaneTSi, bruneaSi, tanzaniaSi,

TurqeTSi aRiricxeba saxeze myofi mosaxleoba. iseT yveynebSi,

rogoricaa saqarTvelo, bulgareTi, ungreTi, italia, ruseTi aRiricxeba

orive kategoria: saxeze myofi (faqtobrivi) da mudmivi mosaxleoba.

cxadia, rom aRweris sxvadasxva programiT sxvadasxva monacemebis

mopoveba arTulebs maTi Sedegebis saerTaSoriso Sesadarisobas. amasTan

dakavSirebiT gaero atarebs msoflioSi mosaxleobis aRweriTi

aRricxvis erTiani principebis rekomendaciebisa da koordinirebis did

samuSaoebs. mosaxleobis ricxovnobis aRwerisadmi unificirebuli

midgomis TvalsazrisiT gaeros rekomendacia iTvaliswinebs aRweris

Catarebis 10 wlian periodulobas da mas iTvaliswinebs qveqnebis

umetesoba.

aRwerisas ganasxvaveben mosaxleobis or kategorias: mudmivi mosaxleoba

da saxeze myofi mosaxleoba.

mudmiv mosaxleobas miaekuTvneben mocemul teritoriaze mcxovreb

mosaxleobas, miuxedavad imisa Tu sad imyofebian isini aRweris momentSi.

saxeze myof mosaxleobas miekuTvneba mocemul adgilas aRweris momentSi

yvela faqtiurad myofi mosaxleoba. aRwerisas mosaxleobis aseT

kategoriebad dayofas aqvs ekonomikuri arsi. magaliTad, sacxoveblebSi,

skolebSi, saavadmyofoebSi moTxovnilebis gansasazRvrelad saWiroa

183

mudmivi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis gaTvaliswineba, xolo sazogadoebriv

transportSi, maRaziebSi moTxovnilebis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa

monacemebi saxeze myof mosaxleobazec.

demografiuli prognozebi

sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens

demografiuli prognozebi: mosaxleobis momavali periodis absoluturi

ricxovnoba da sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenloba. pirveli iZleva

mosaxleobis absoluturi ricxovnobis prognozs, xolo meore

mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis prognozs.

mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnobis prognozi keTdeba

eqstrapolaciis meTodiT, xolo sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenlobis

prognozi _ asakgadanacvlebis meTodiT.

eqstrapolacia gulisxmobs warsul periodSi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis

cvalebadobis tendenciebis gavrcelebas momavalze. aq SesaZlebelia

iseTi maCveneblebis gamoyeneba, rogoricaa mosaxleobis saSualowliuri

zrda, absoluturi mateba da a.S.

mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba saSualo absoluturi matebis

gamoyenebiT gaiangariSeba:

)1(0

tSS t

xolo saSualo zrdis tempebis gamoyenebiT:

1

0

t

t kSS

sadac tS aris mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba;

0S _ sawyisi ricxovnoba perspeqtiuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis;

_ mosaxleobis saSualo wliuri absoluturi mateba warsul periodSi;

K _ saSualowliuri zrdis tempi; t _ perspeqtiuli periodis xangrZlivoba wleebSi.

184

asakgadanacvlebis meTodi gulisxmobs TiToeuli asakobrivi

jgufisaTvis, mokvdaobis koeficientebis safuZvelze, momdevno asakis

mqone mosaxleobis ricxvis dadgenas.

magaliTi. dauSvaT 2009 wlis bolosaTvis saWiroa romelime regionSi

dadgindes ramdeni iqneba 16 wlis asakis (e.i. Sromisunariani)

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 2012 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis. aSkaraa, rom isini

2009 wlis bolosaTvis iqnebian 14 wlisani. maSasadame, saWiroa jer

davadginoT 14 wlis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 2009 wlis bolosaTvis.

dauSvaT am ricxovnobam Seadgina 10,0 mln kaci. cnobilia agreTve, rom

mokvdaobis koeficientebi 14 da 15 wlis asakis mosaxleobisaTvis

Seadgens Sesabamisad 1,4 da 1,6-s (promileebSi), aqedan 15 wlis asakis

mosaxleoba 2010 wlis bolosaTvis iqneba:

10,0 mln _ 0,99861000

4,1*0,10 aT kaci.

2011 wlis bolosaTvis anu 2012 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis iqneba:

9986,0 aT _ 0,99701000

6,1*0,9986 aT kaci.

aRniSnuli gaangariSebebis gamartiveba SesaZlebelia asakmiRweulTa

koeficientebis gamoyenebiT, romlebic miiReba erTisa da mokvdaobis

koeficientebis sxvaobiT.

Cvens magaliTSi 14 wlis mosaxleobisaTvis asakmiRweulTa koeficienti

iqneba: 1 _ 0,0014 = 0,9984, aqedan 15 wlis mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli

ricxovnoba 2010 wlis bolos Seadgenda 10,0 mln kaci*0,9985=9,986 mln

kacs. xolo 2011 wlis bolos 16 wlis asakis mosaxleobisarvis 9,986 mln

kaci* 0,9984=9,979 mln kacs.

185

leqcia 10. Sromis saerTaSoriso statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia, misi saqmianobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi

2. Sromis bazris cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema 3. dasaqmebis, umuSevrobisa da mosaxleobis ekonomikuri

aqtiurobis maCvenebelTa sistema 4. samuSao drois statistika 5. Sromis mwarmoeblurobis statistika 6. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika 7. samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis statistika

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizacia da misi saqmianobis

ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi

saerSaSoriso maStabiT SromiTi urTierTobebis statistikuri Seswavlis

problemebi Tavmoyrilia Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciaSi, is

Siqmna 1919wels, xolo 1946 wlidan moqmedebs gaeros egidiT. Sso

gaeros specializirebuli dawesebulebaa. Stab-bina mdebareobs JenevaSi,

msxvili qveynebis dedaqalaqebSi Sso gaaCnia warmomadgenloba. samuSao

enebi _ franguli da inglisuri. aRmasrulebeli organoa

administraciuli sabWo, romelic xelmZrvanelobs Sromis saerTaSoriso

biuros (Ssb) samdivnos muSaobas, is mudmivad moqmedi samuSao organoa.

Ssb CarCoebSi Seqmnilia statistikis biuro da Sromis statistikosebis

saerTaSoriso konferencia. Ssb aRniSnul gvedanayoSi moqmedebs xuTi

ganyofileba:

samuSao Zalis, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobisa da

umuSevrobis;

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis, xelfasisa da samuSo drois;

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsebis;

saojaxo biujetebis;

organizaciuli sakiTxebisa da publikaciebis.

Sso saqmianobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia: Sromis statistikis

organizaciisa da maCvenebelTa gaangariSebis meTodologiis srulyofa,

186

agreTve SromiTii resursebis, xelfasis, samuSao drois da Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis problemebze informaciis mopoveba.

Sso rekomendaciebis Tanaxmad misi yvela wevri-qveyana valdebulia

regularulad moipovos da gamoaqveynos informacia Sromis Semdegi

ganyofilebebis mixedviT:

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba, dasaqmeba da umuSevroba;

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis struqtura da ganawileba;

samuSao drois saSualo xangrZlivoba da saSualo xelfasi;

xelfasis struqtura da ganawileba;

samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba;

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;

Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebi da xarjebi;

sawarmoo travmatizmi da profesiuli daavadebebi;

gaficvebi, lokautebi da SromiT konfliktebTan dakavSirebuli

sxva aqciebi.

Sromis saerTaSoriso statistikis ganviTarebas xeluwyobs Sromis

tatistikis saerTaSoriso konferenciebi. konferenciebis Sedegebi

mniSvnelovani SemuSavebis nawilSi gamoqveynebuli iqna Sromis

statistikis saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebis saxelwodebiT.

amJamad Sso ZiriTadi amocanebia:

samuSao drois reglamentacia;

Sromis garantirebuli anazRaurebis dadgena;

mSromelTa dacva profesiuli daavedebebisgan da warmoebaze

ubeduri SemTxvevebisgan;

bavSvebis, mozardebisa da qalebis Sromis dacva;

socialuri dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebis

regulireba;

profesiul-teqnikuri swavlebis organizeba.

187

Sso ganaxorciela didi samuSaoebi Sromis statistikis maCvenebelTa

unificirebis, maTi gaangariSebis meTodikis gavrcelebis, yveynebis

farTo wreebSi Sesabamisi dokumentaciis gavrcelebis, Sromis

statistikis maCvenebelTa saerTaSooriso doneze Sesadarisobis

uzrunvelyofis kuTxiT.

Sromis bazris cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema

Sromis bazarSi igulisxmeba samuSao Zalis ganawilebisa da gamoyenebis

makoordinirebeli da maregulirebeli ekonomikuri, socialuri da

samarTlebrvi RonisZiebebis da institutebis sistema.

Sromis bazaris statistika iqmneba Sromis statistikis CarCoebSi da

gansakuTrebul yuradRebas aqcevs daqiravebulTa da damqiravebelTa

Soris saqmianobisa da urTierTobis im aspeqtebs, romlis safuZvelze

igeba sabazro koniunqturis analizi da prognozireba. Tumca statistika

swavlobs ara mxolod samuSao Zalaze moTxovnasa da miwodebas, aramed

Sromis pirobebis, Sromis anazRaurebis, kadrebis profesiuli momzadebis

sakiTxebs da rig sxva problebas, romelic aucilebelia Sromis bazris

politikis gansasazRvrelad.

amosaval poziciaze damokidebuliT am dargSi ganasxvaveben politikis

or saxeobas: saerTo ekonomikuri politika da aqtiuri politika.

saerTo ekonomikuri politikis amocana mdgomareobs dasaqmebis maRali

donis misaRwevad xelsayreli amosavali pirobebis SeqmnaSi. is ar ereva

Sromis bazris procesebSi, magram misi meSveobiT umjobesdeba moTxovnis

pirobebi Sromis bazrze. aseTi formiT, saerTo ekonomikuri politika

zemoqmedebs samuSao Zalis moTxovnaze.

aqtiuri politika Sromis bazris dargSi uSualod moqmedebs Sromis

Zalis miwodebaze. misi zemoqmedebis insrumentebia: samuSaos miwodebis,

kvalifikaciis amaRlebis da gadamzadebis RonisZiebebi; konsultaciebi

profesiis SerCevasTan dakavSirebiT; Suamavloba profesiuli ganaTlebis

188

adgilebisa da samuSao adgilebis gamoyofaze; umuSevrobaze Semweobis

gacema da a.S.

rogorc saeraTo ekonomikuri politikis efeqtianoba, aseve efeqtiuri

politika Sromis bazarze vlindeba, uwinaresad, samuSao Zalis

moTxovnisa da miwodebis dabalasebulobaSi, xolo miRebuli

RonisZiebebis arasakmarisoba iwvevs daZabulobas Sromis bazarze.

warmoebaSi faqtobriv monawileobaze, miRebul Semosavlebze,

Sesasrulebeli samuSaoebis adgilsa da xangrZlivobaze

damokidebulebiT ganasxvaveben samuSao Zalis Semdeg kategoriebs:

mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asaksi;

Sromisunariani mosaxleoba;

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba;

SromiTi resursebi;

ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleoba.

saerTaSoriso standartebis Sesabamisad Sromisunariani asaki

dadgenilia 15_64 wlis sazRvrebSi. miuxedavad amisa TiToeuli qveyana

adgens Sromisunariani asakis Tavis sazRvrebs da isini arsebiTad

gansxvavdebian.

am dros ikveTeba urTierTkavSiri qveynebis socialur-ekonomikuri

ganviTarebis donesa da am qveynebSi dadgenili Sromisunariani asakis

sazRvrebs Soris. ramdenad maRalia qveynis ganviTarebis done, miT ufro

maRalia Sromisunarani asakis qveda zRvari, xolo zeda zRvari _

dabali. zeda zRvari gansxvavebulia qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris.

Sromisunarani asaki dgindeba sakanonmdeblo aqtiT, qveynis

Taviseburebebis, tradiciebisa da Cvevebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

Sromisunarani mosaxleoba _ mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi, maT

SemadgenlobaSi arc erT yveyanaSi ar SeyavT Sromisunariani asakis ar

momuSave invalidebi.

189

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba – mateialuri dovlaTis warmoebaSi an

momsaxurebis gawevaSi monawileobis potenciuri unaris mqone pirTa

erToblioba.

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis gaangariSebis meTodika

gansxvavebulia qveynebs Soris. es gansxvaveba dakavSirebulia am

maCvenebelSi samxedro mosamsaxureebis CarTva an ar CarTvasTan.

zogjer xdeba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis cnebis SromiTi

resursebiT Senacvleba. Tumca mxedvelobaSia misaRebi, rom SromiTi

resursebi gansxvavdebian ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobisagan.

kategoria ,,saerTo SromiTi resursebi” gamoiyeneba ekonomikuri

ganviTarebisa da TanamSromlobis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier

qveynis SromiTi da samxedro potencialis dasaxasiaTeblad.

ekonomikurad araqtiuri mosaxleoba _ rogorc ojaxis, aseve

sazogadoebis kmayoaze myofTa yvela kategoria. maT miekuTvnebian:

moswavleebi, studentebi, romlebic ar araian dasaqmebuli aranairi

saqmianobiT, garda swavlisa;

pirebi, romlebic dasaqmebuli arian saojaxo meurneobis gaZRoliT,

bavSvebis, avadmyofebis, naTesavebis movliT;

pirebi, romlebmac Sewyvites samuSaos Zebna, amowures samuSaos

povnis SesaZlebloba, magram maT SeuZliaT da mzad arian imuSaon;

pirebi, romlebsac ara aqvT muSaobis aucilebloba, am dros

Semosavlis wyaros araaqvs mniSvneloba;

Sromis saerTaSoriso oganizaciis meTodologiiT ekonomikurad ara

aqtiuri mosaxleoba moicavs kidev or kategorias:

pirebi, romlebic iReben pensias, magram ar arian dasaqmebuli;

invalidebi, romlebic iReben pensias, magram ar arian dasaqmebuli.

analitikuri miznebisaTvis rekomendebulia ekonomikurad ara aqtiuri

mosaxleobis ricxovnobidan Sromisunariani asakis ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobs gamoyofa.

190

garda zemoT moyvanili absuluturi maCveneblebisa ganisazRvreba rigi

SefardebiTi maCvenebeli:

1. Sromisunarian asakSi myofi mosaxleobis wili (dSru.as.) es

maCvenebeli axasiaTebs Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wils

mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi:

dSru.as.= SSru.as./ SsaerT.ricx.

mTlianad planetis mixedviT es maCvenebeli Seadgens 60_65%-s.

2. Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wili (dSru.):

dSru.= SSru./ SsaerT.ricx.

es ori maCvenebeli dakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan Semdegi saindeqso

modeliT:

SSru./ SsaerT.ricx. = SSru.as./ SsaerT.ricx.* SSru./ SSru.as,

sadac SSru./SSru.as. _ Sromisunariani mosaxleobis wili Sromisunariani

asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobaSi.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi didi mniSvneloba aqvs maCvenebelTa

gaangariSebas SromiTi resursebis formirebis TvalsazrisiT. amdagvari

maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad mTliani mosaxleoba iyofa sam jgufad:

Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleoba;

mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi;

Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleoba.

mosaxleobis aRniSnuli jgufebisaTvis gaeros statistikis komisis mier

rekomendebulia Semdegi asakobrivi zRvari:

Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleoba _ 4-dan 14 wlamde;

mosaxleoba Sromisunarian asakSi _ 15-dan 64 wlamde;

Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleoba _ 64 wlis zemoT.

191

aRniSnuli asakobrivi jgufebis safuZvelze gaiangariSeba Semdegi

maCveneblebi:

1. SromiTi resursebis ჩანacvlebis koeficienti. is warmoadgens

Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda mosaxleobis rocxonobis Sefardebas

Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:

KSr.r.S. = SSru.as.ax./ SSru.as.

2. sapensio datvirTvis koeficienti. is gaiangariSeba Sromisunarian

asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT Sromisunariani

asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:

Ksap.dat. = Ssap.as.uf./ SSru.as.

3. saerTo datvirTvis koeficirnti . is warmoadgens Sromisunarian

asakze aumcrosi da ufrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis jamis Sefardebas

Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan:

Ksaer.dat.= SSru.as.ax./ + Ssap.as.uf./ SSru.as.

an

Ksaer.dat. = KSr.r.S + Ksap.dat.

SromiTi resursebis Senacvlebis, sapensio da saerTo datvirTvis

koeficientebi gaiangariSeba promileebSi da, axasiaTeben Tu, ramdeni

Sromisunarian asakze axalgazrda an ufrosi piri ( an erTic da meorec)

modis Sromisunariani mosaxleobis 1000kacze.

es maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba socialuri uzrunvelyofisa da SromiTi

resursebis raciunalurad gamoyenebis RonisZiebaTa SesamuSaveblad.

bolo wleebSi grZeldeba planetis mosaxleobis daberebis procesi.

Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis zrda aRemateba

Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi mosaxleobis rocxovnobis zrdas.

192

calkeul qveynebSi Sromisunarian asakze ufrosi mosaxleobis

rocxovobis zrdisas mcirdeba Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi

mosaxleobis rocxovnoba (iaponia, ungreTi, bulgareTi, didibritaneTi,

safrangeTi, kanada, SvedeTi). Sromisunarian asakze umcrosi mosaxleobis

rocxovnobis Semcireba ZiriTadad gamowveulia umetes yveyanaSi

Sobadobis Semcirebis tendenciiT.

Emosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis, dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis

maCvenebelTa sistema.

cocxali Sromis gamoyenebis efeqti Seiswavleba SromiTi potencialis

gamoyenebis maCvenebebelTa meSveobiT, maT miekuTvneba aqtiurobis,

dasaqmebisa da umoSevrobis maCveneblebi.

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba or variantSi:

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti = ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti = ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba.

pirveli maCvenebeli axasiaTebs ara mTliani mosaxlebis aqtiurobas,

aramed, mxolod misi gansazRvruli nawilisas, e.i. Sromisunariani asakis

mosaxleobis.

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficients axasiaTebs mniSvnelovani rxevadoba

qveynebis mixedviT. es maCvenebeli ufro maRalia ganviTarebul qveynebSi,

rac aixsneba qalebis maRali aqtiurobiT.

mosaxleobisDdasaqmebis koeficienti SeiZleba gaangariSdes:

mTlian mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT;

Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT.

193

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti = dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba.

mosaxlebis dasaqmebis koeficienti axasiaTebs sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi

mosaxleobis CarTulobis dones. es Zalian zogadi maCvenebelia, vinaidan

misi mricxveli moicavs mTlian mosaxleobas, asakis, janmrTelobis

mdgomareobis da a.S. mixedviT diferencirebis gauTvaliswineblad.

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti = dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba/ Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.

dasaqmebis am or koeficients Soris ikveTeba Semdegi kavSiri:

Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti =

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti * mosaxleobis saerTo ricxobnoba/

Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnoba.

es niSnavs, rom Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis dasaqmebis

koeficienti absoluturi sididis mixedviT metia mTliani mosaxleobis

dasaqmebis koeficientisa imdenjer, ramdenjerac mTliani mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba metia Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis ricxobnobaze.

mTel msoflioSi mecnierul-teqnikur ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebiT

SeimCneva dasaqmebis donis Semcirebisa da muSaobis survilis mqone,

dausaqmebeli Sromisunariani mosaxleobis ricxvis Semcirebis tendencia,

e.i. izrdeba umuSevarTa ricxovnoba.

umuSevroba aris socialur-ekonomkuri movlena, romlis drosac samuSao

Zalis nawili (ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis) ar aris dasaqmebuli

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebaSi.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis rekomendaciiT umuSevrebs

miekuTvnebian:

pirebi, romlebsac ara aqvT samuSao;

pirebi, romlebic eZeben samuSaos;

194

pirebi, romlebic mzad arian dauyovnebliv daiwyon muSaoba (ori

kviris ganmavlobaSi);

ganasxvaveben umuSevrobis Semdeg saxeobebs:

friqciuli umuSevroba, dakavSirebulia erTi samuSaodan meoreze

gadasvlasTan (nebayoflobiT, an gaTavisuflebis gamo) an

sacxovrebeli adgilis SecvlasTan;

stuqturuli umuSevroba esaa samuSao Zalis moTxovnisa da

miwodebis Seusabamoba profesiis mixedviT. is Cndeba warmoebaSi

mecnierul-teqnikuri progresis danergvasTan dakavSirebiT maSin,

rodesac samuSao adgilebis axali struqtura ar Seesatyviseba

samuSao Zalis Camoyalibebul profesionalur-kvalificiur

struqturas;

cikluri umuSevroba _ cvlilebebi umuSevarTa ricxvSi

dakavSirebuli saqmiani koniunqturis ciklTan. is aRwevs piks

ekonomikaSi krizisuli situaciisas. (1933 wlis krizisis dros aSS-

Si ciklurma umuSevrobam moicva dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis 25%)

sezonuri umuSevroba damaxasiaTebelia dargebisaTvis, sadac Sroma

atarebs sezonur xasiaTs (soflis meurneoba, nadiroba, TevzWera

da sxva);

klasikuri umuSevroba (samuSao adgilebis nawilis

gamoTavisufleba xelfasis momatebis mizniT);

teqnologiuri umuSevroba aris dasaqmebis Semcireba warmoebaze,

misi avtomatizaciisa da axali teqnikis danergvis Sedegad.

friqciuli da stuqturuli umuSevroba sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi

gardauvalia. cxadia, rom yovelTvis iqnebian muSakebi, romlebic

fiqroben ufro kvalificirebul da maRalanazRaurebad Tanamdebobaze.

struqturuli umuSevroba, aseve gardauvalia, Tu aris progresi, vinaidan

dakavSirebulia mecnierul-teqnikuri siaxleebis danergvasTan, romelic

iwvevs moTxovnas gansazRvruli kvalifikaciis spesialistebze da

tradiciuli dargebis muSakebis SromiTi mowyobis problemebs.

195

friqciuli da stuqturuli umuSevroba axasiaTebs mis bunebriv dones.

Tu bunebrivi done 4% tolia, maSin laparakia srul dasaqmebaze (e.i.

dasaqmebulia samuSao Zalis 96%).

arsebiTi gansxvaveba friqciul da stuqturul umuSevrobas Soris

mdgomareobs imaSi, rom friqciul umuSevrebs gaaCniaT unari, romelic

SeuZliaT maT gayidon dauyovnebliv, xolo struqturul umuSevrebs ar

SeuZliaT miiRon samuSao gadamzadebis gareSe. struqturuli umuSevroba,

gansxvavebiT xasiaTiT moklevadiani frikciuli umuSevrobisgan ufro

grZelvadiania da amitom iTvleba ufro seriozul problemad.

ganasxvaveben srul da nawilobriv umuSevrobas. srul umuSevrobas

miakuTvneben Sromisunarian pirebs, romlebsac ar gaaCniaT samuSao

dadgenili drois periodis zemoT. nawilobriv umuSevrebs miakuTvneben

pirebs, romlebic iZulebuli arian imuSaon arasruli samuSao kviris

ganmavlobaSi. Tumca mocemuli cnebebis mimarT mkveTri saerTaSoriso

rekomendacia ar arsebobs, qveynebis umetesobaSi statistikur aRricxvas

eqvemdebareba mxolod sruli umuSevroba.

drois periodi, romlis gasvlis Semdeg samuSaos armqone piri SeiZleba

CaiTvalos umuSevrad calkeuli qveynebis kanonmdeblobaSi ganisazRvreba

gansxvavebulad, Tumca yvelaze gavrcelebulad iTvleba kalendaruli

Tve.

umuSevrobis xangrZlivoba _ periodi, romlis ganmavlobaSi adamiani

iTvleba umSevrad. Sromis bazarze moTxovnisa da miwodebis

ganmsazRvrel socialur, ekonomikur, demografiul da politikur

pirobebze damokidebulebiT umuSevrobam SeiZleba miiRos sxvadasxva

forma. analitikuri miznebisaTvis ganasxvaveben grZelvadian da

moklevadian umuSevrobas.

gaeros rekomendaciebis Tanaxmad umuSevroba erT welze meti vadiT

iTvleba grZelvadianad, rac dakavSirebulia ekonomkiuri saqmianobis

ciklurobasTan.

196

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis rekomendaciebis Sesabamisad

moklevadian umuSevrobas gaaCnia ori daxasiaTeba: 3 Tvemde da 3 Tvidan 1

wlamde.

umuSevarTa saerTo realuri ricxovnoba gansxvavdeba oficialurad

daregistrirebuli umuSevobisgan. qveyanaSi oficialurad miCneuli

umuSevroba naklebia misi realuri sididisa ,,faruli umuSevrobis”

sididiT.

saerTaSoriso Sedarebebisas gamoiyeneba umuSevarTa ara absoluturi

raodenoba, aramed SefardebiTi maCvenebeli _ umuSevrobis done

(koeficienti). is SeiZleba ganisazRvros or variantSi:

mTlian mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT;

ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT.

KumS.= umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.

KumS.= umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba.

am or maCveneblebs Soris arsebobs Semdegi kavSiri:

umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba=

umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi/ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba * aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba/ mosaxleobis saerTo

ricxovnoba.

es niSnavs, rom umuSevrobis koeficienti gaangariSebuli mosaxleobis

mTlian ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT ori faqtoris namravlis tolia:

ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan mimarTebiT gaangariSebul

umuSevrobis koeficientis;

mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobis wilis.

197

aRniSnuli kavSiri iZleva, mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTan

mimarTebiT gaangariSebuli, umuSevrobis koeficientis dinamikaSi

cvlilebis gansazRvris saSualebas aRniSnuli faqtorebis xarjze.

gaviangariSoT es kavSiri qvemoT motanili cxrilis monacemebis

magaliTze:

maCveneblebi pirobiTi

aRniSvnebi

sabazoso

periodi

saangariSo

periodi

1.umuSevarTa absoluturi ricxvi aT.kac. SumuS. 196

263

2.ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba aT.kac.

Sek.aq.

1527

2513

3.mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba aT.kac SsaerTo 5020 5010

gaangariSebiTi maCveneblebi:

4.umuSevrobis koeficienti mosaxleobis

saerTo ricxovnobasTan mimarTebiT (1:3), %-Si

KumuS.

3,09

5,2

5.umuSevrobis koeficienti ekonomikrad

aqtiur mosaxleobsTan mimarTebiT (1:2), %-Si

a

7,8

10,5

6.ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis wili

mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi (2:3)

b 0,502 0,502

saangariSo periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT umuSevrobis koeficientis

saerTo mateba mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTsan mimarTebiT:

K umuS.= 1K umuS. _ 0K umuS.=5,2_3,9=1,3%,

maT Soris cvlilebebis xarJze:

umuSevrobis koeficientis ekonomikrad aqtiur mosaxleobsTan

mimarTebiT:

1K umuS.= 36,1502,0*8,75,10*)( 101 baa %

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis wili mosaxleobis saerTo

ricxovnobaSi:

0K umuS.= %01,08,7*503,0502,0*)( 001 abb

198

gaangariSebebis Semowmeba:

K umuS.= 1K umuS. + 0K umuS.,

1.3= 1,36+ (_0,01).

umniSvnelo gansxvavebas adgili aqvs damrgvalebis xarjze.

umuSevroba mTlianad sazogadoebisaTvis vlindeba danakargTa ori saxiT:

finansuri danakargebis (umuSevrobaze Semweibis gacemiT,

danaxarjebi umuSevarTa gadamzadebaze, umuSevrobis materialuri

daxmareba );

danakargebi erovnuli Semosavlebis nawilis, vinaidan umuSevrebi

arafers ar awarmoeben (umuSevrobisgan zarali).

umuSevrobisgan zarali ganisazRvreba, rogorc umuSevarTa ricxovnobisa

da Sromis saSualo mwarmoeblurobis namravli:

N umuSevrobisgan zarali=ND/Tdas.*TumuS.,

sadac ND/Tdas. _ erTi dasaqmebulis Sromis saSualo mwarmoeblurobaa;

TumuS. _ umuSevarTa ricxovnoba.

urTierTkavSiri mSp danagargebsa da umuSevrobas Soris ganisazRvreba

oukenis kanoniT: umuSevrobis bunebrivi donis 1%-iT mateba iwvevs mSp

moculobis 2,5%-iT Semcirebas.

samuSao drois statistika

Tanaxmad saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebisa Sromis statistikis ZiriTadi

maCveneblebia:

normaluri samuSao dro;

faqtiurad namuSevari dro;

anazRaurebuli dro.

199

samuSao dro _ sakanonmdeblo wesiT dadgenili, koleqtiur

xelSekrulebebSi da saarbitraJo gadawyveilebebSi dafiqsirebuli dro

saaTebSi. es aris samuSao saaTebis raodenoba dRis, kviris, an sxva

konkretuli periodis ganmavlobaSi, romlis zemoT anazRaureba

xorcieldeba zeganakveTebiT.

qveynebis umetesobaSi amosavali maCvenebelia kviraSi namuSevari saaTebis

raodenoba. es maCvenebeli sxvadasxva qveyanaSi gansxvavdeba.

saerTaSoriso masStabiT samuSao kviris etalonad miCneulia 37,5 saaTi.

samuSao kviris yvelaze maRali xangrZlivobaa niderlandebSi (48 saaTi),

yvelaze dabali _ espaneTSi (37, saaTi).

faqtiurad namuSevari dro _ esa yvela namuSevari dro, m.S. samuSao

drois normaluri peiodis zemoT. aq Sedis:

uSualod muSaobis dro;

dro daxarjuli samuSao adgilze sawarmoo procesis

mosamzadeblad;

mokle Sesvenebebi samuSao adgilze dasaveneblad.

is ar moicavs anazRaurebul, magram ara namuSevar dros (Svebulebis,

avadmyofobis furclis (buleteni) anazRaurebas, oficialur

dResaswaulebs, transportze daxarjul dros, sadilze Sesvenebas).

anazRaurebuli dro. am cnebis gageba sxvadasxva qveyanaSi arsebiTad

gansxvavdeba. misi informaciis wyaroa sagadasaxdelo uwyisebi.

samuSao drois statistikaSi gaiangariSeba misi gamoyenebis Semdegi

maCveneblebi:

samuSao kviris saSualo xangrZlivoba =kviraSi namuSevari saaTebis

raodenoba/kviris ganmavlobaSi momuSaveTa saSualo raodenoba.

samuSao kviris gamoyenebis xangrZlivobis koeficienti = samuSao kviris

saSualo faqtiuri xangrZlivoba/ samuSao kviris dadgenili

xangrZlivoba.

200

samuSao dRis saSualo xangrZlivoba = samuSao kviris ganmavlobaSi

namuSevari kac-saaTi/samuSao kviris ganmavlobaSi namuSevari kac-dRe.

samuSao dRis gamoyenebis xangrZlivobis koeficienti = samuSao dRis

saSualo faqtiuri xangrZlivoba/samuSao dRis dadgenili xangrZlivoba.

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis statistika

saerTaSorisoOoficialur statistikaSi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis

maCvenebeli ar gaiangariSeba. saerTaSoriso dokunentebSi Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis gansazRvraze misi ganmartebis mkafo niSnebi,

gaangariSebis mza meTodika ar arsebobs. am problemebTan mimarTebiT

saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi moicavs daskvnebs Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis statistikis ganviTarebis aucileblobaze.

am sferoSi gansazRvruli samuSao xorcieldeba Sromis saerTaSoriso

organizacis CarCoebSi. es samuSao dakavSirebulia Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis saerTaSoriso indegqsebis gaangariSebasTan.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi rekomendebulia Sromis mwarmoeblurobis

Semdegi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba:

1. mTliani Sromis mwarmoebluroba = mTliani gamoSveba/cocxali

Sromis danaxarjebi.

2. wminda Sromis mwarmoebluroba = wminda damatebuli Rirebuleba/

cocxali Sromis danaxarjebi.

wminda Sromis mwarmoeblurobis gaangariSebisas mniSvneli moicavs

mxolod cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs, xolo warmoebis sxva faqtorebis

danaxarjebi, wminda damatebuli Rirebulebis gansasazRvrelad, akldeba

mTlian gamoSvebas mricxvelSi.

201

Sromis integraluri mwarmoebluroba = mTliani gamoSveba an wminda

damatebuli Rirebuleba/cocxali Sromis danaxarjebi.

praqtikaSi Sromis integraluri mwarmoebluroba gaiangariSeba Zalian

iSviaTad, vinaidan rTulia warsuli Sromis danaxarjebis SromiT

erTeulebSi gadaangariSeba.

cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs miekuTvneba:

muSebisa da mosamsaxurebis Sroma, mewarmeebisa da ojaxis damxmare

wevrebis CaTvliT;

muSebisa da mosamsaxurebis Sroma, mewarmeebisa da ojaxis damxmare

wevrebis gamoklebiT;

namuSevari kac-saaTebi.

warsuli Sromis danaxarjebi _ es Sromis erTeulebSi gamosaxuli

warmoebis sxva faqtorebia (garda muSebis).

statistikuri organoebis praqtikaSi eas-is danergva afarToebs Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis Sewavlis SesaZleblobebs.

eas-is monacemebi iZleva, dargis da mTlianad ekonomikis doneze, Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis Seswavlis da agreTve saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

ganxorcielebis saSualebas.

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis pirveli ori maCvenebelis ZiriTadi naklia is

rom, es maCveneblebi mniSvnelSi iTvaliswineben, warmoebis danarCeni

faqtorebis ignorirebiT, mxolod cocxali Sromis danaxarjebs.

miuxedavad amisa isini mraval qveyanaSi gamoiyeneba samuSao Zalis

efeqtianobis dasaxasiaTeblad. maTi farTo gamoyeneba aixsneba saimedo

statistikuri monacemebis arsebobiTa da gaangariSebis simartiviT.

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis dargis mravali specialisti emxroba

mosazRebas, rom Sromis mwarmoeblurobis donis gaangariSeba unda

xdebodes rogorc cocxali, aseve warsuli Sromis gaTvaliswinebiT. amis

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motivireba xdeba imiT, rom teqnikuri progresis pirobebSi Sromis

mwarmoeblurobis arsebiTi faqtoria warsuli Sromis danaxarjebi, e.i.

warmoebis procesSi gamoyenebuli kapitali. amisaTvis maT mier

SemoTavazebulia Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli an

globaluri maCveneblebi.

aSS-is Sromis statistikurma biurom 1983 wlidan daiwyo kapitalis

mwarmoeblurobis da Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli

indeqsebis publikacia.

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis mravalfaqtoruli indeqsi ganisazRvreba,

rogorc cocxali Sromis da kapitalis mwarmoeblurobis Sewonili

saSualo.

Sromis mwarmoeblurobis saerTo faqtoruli indeqsi ganisazRvreba

formuliT:

w = mSp / S.danx. k.danx + k. k.,

sadac mSp aris mTliani Sida produqtis dinamikis indeqsi;

S.danx. _ cocxali Sromis danaxarjebis indeqsi;

k.danx _ Sromis anazRaurebis wili;

k. _ kapitalis anazRaurebis wili;

k., _ mogebis wili mSp-Si.

Sromis anazRaurebis statistika

Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis SemuSavebisas dasawyisSive Sromis

anazRaurebis sakiTxebi moqceuli iqna yuradRebis centrSi, amitom

statistikis es nawili ufro SemuSavebuli da unificirebulia.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi gamosayenebeli Sromis anazRaurebis

ZiriTadi maCveneblebia:

xelfasi;

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satarifo ganakveTi.

xelfasi _ fuladi an naturaluri formiT regularulad, drois

gansazRvruli periodis Semdeg miRebuli Sesrulebuli samuSaos an

namuSevari drois sazRauri. xelfasi saerTaSoriso statistikaSi

ganixileba, rogorc:

warmoebis danaxarjebis elementi;

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebeli;

erovnuli Semosavalis elementi.

xelfasi moicavs Svebulebebisa da oficialuri dResaswaulebis

anazRaurebas. masSi ar Sedis Semdegi elementebi:

mewarmeebis Senatanebi sapensio fondSi;

mewarmeebis Senatanebi socialuri dazRvevis fondSi;

muSakebis mier miRebuli SeRavaTebi;

jarimebi da sadResawaulo Semweobebi.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi xelfasi dairicxeba erT namuSevar saaTze an

erT kviraze, da ara erT muSakze. es aixsneba imiT rom msoflios umetes

yveqnebSi momuSaveTa mniSvnelovani nawili dasaqmebulia arasruli

samuSao droiT.

saSualosaaTobivi xelfasi = namuSevar droze gadaxdebis saerTo

sidide/gadaxdili kac-saaTebis saerTo raodrnoba.

saSualokvireuli xelfasi = saerTo kvireuli gadaxdebi/momuSaveTa

saerTosiobrivi ricxovnoba.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi saSualokvireuli xelfasi ganixileba,

rogorc samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba. mis safuZvelze igeba samuSao Zalis

Rirebulebis indeqsebi.

saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis uaRresad mniSvnelovania xelfasis

dinamikis Seswavla. am dros gaiangariSeba indeqsebi:

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nominaluri xelfasis ( n.x.);

realuri xelfasis ( r.x.).

n.x. = n.x1/n.x0

r.x. = n.x. / s.f.

nominaluri xalfasi _ misi fuladi gamosaxulebaa Sesabamisi wlis

fasebSi.

realuri xelfasi warmoadgens im saqonlisa da mosaxurebis raodenobas,

romlis SeZenac SesaZlebelia mocemuli xelfasiT.

xelfasis kategoria ganixileba or aspeqtSi. daqiravebuli muSakisTvis

es misi Semosavlebis nawilia, damqiraveblisTvis _ warmoebis

danaxarjebis nawili. magram damqiraveblis an mTlianad sazogadoebis

danaxarjebi daqiravebul Sromaze, garda xelfasisa, moicavs socialuri

dacvis, sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofis, samuSao Zalaze gadasaxadebis,

socialur-sayofacxovrebo xarjebs.

xalfasis formirebis safuZvelia satarifo kanakveTi. is afiqsirebs

gansazRvruli profesiisa da kvalifikaciis muSakTa Sromis

anazRaurebas.

satarifo kanakveTi aris gansazRvruli profesiisa da kvalifikaciis

gansazRvruli donis muSakTa Sromis anazRaureba drois gansazRvrul

periodSi (Cveulebriv saaTi).

yvela yveqanaSi satarifo kanakveTi nawildeba satarifo badeebSi,

sxvadasxva niSnebze damokidebulebiT, Tanrigebad.

Tumca arsebos satarifo zomaze moqmedi sxva kategoriebi:

teritoriuli niSnebi, e.i. qveynis teritoriebis mixedviT

gansxvaveba satarifo ganakveTis doneSi (qveyana iyofa sxvadasxva

donis satarifo gankveTis teritoriul zonebad);

momuSaves sqesi (bevr yveyanaSi satarifo ganakveTi momuSave

qalebisaTvis ufro dabalia vidre mamakacebisaTvis);

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sawarmos zoma (msxvil sawarmoSi satarifo ganakveTi ufro

maRalia vidre mcireze).

amJamad, saerTaSoriso statistikaSi, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani tendenciaa

calkeuli qveynis SigniT erTiani satarifo sistemis formireba, rac

xels Seuwyobs informaciis Sesadarisobas.

samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis cneba

kategoria ,,samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba” damaxasiaTebelia mxolod

sabazro ekonomikisaTvis.

samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba (danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze) SeiZleba

Seswavlili iqnes ori mimarTulebiT:

damqiraveblis danaxarjebi;

danaxarjebi mTliani ekonomikis doneze.

Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis ganmartebis Tanaxmad damqiraveblis

danaxarjebi warmoadgens misi danaxarjebis jamobriv Tanxas

dakavSirebuls samuSao Zalis gamoyenebasaA da SenaxvasTan.

danaxarjebi mTliani ekonomikis doneze moicavs damqiraveblis

danaxarjebsac da saxelmwifos danaxarjebsac.

saerTaSoriso Sedarebisas upiratesoba eniWeba danaxarjebs mTliani

ekonomikis doneze.

saerTaSoriso standartebis Sesabamisad samuSao Zalis Senaxvis xarjebis

Seswavlis safuZvelia specialuri erTdrouli kamokvlevebi, romlebic

tardeba or weliwadSi erTxel.

samuSao Zalis kamokvlevebisas mopovebuli informacia aris partniorebs

Soris molaparakebis safuZveli satarifo SeTanxmebebze daqiravebuli

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muSakebis Semosavlebisa da samuSao Zalaze gaweuli xarjebis

Rirebulebis SedarebiTi analizis uzrunvelsayofad.

gamokvlevebis Sedegad miRebuli monacemebis safuZvelze TiToeul

damqiravebels SeuZlia sakuTari sawarmos samuSao Zalis Rirebuleba

Seadaros qveynis SigniT Sesabamisi dargis an sxva dargebis mocemuli

maCveneblis saSualo sidides.

Sromis statistika samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis Seswavlisas wyvets

Semdeg amocanebs:

samuSao Zalaze saSualo danaxarjebis gansazRvra drois

erTeulze gaangariSebiT;

samuSao Zalis Rirebulebis donis, struqturisa da dinamikis

gansazRvra teritoriebis da ekonomikuri saqmianobis sferoebis

mixedviT;

Sromis anazRaurebis maCvenebelTa statistikuri Seswavla

(gansakuTrebiT (xelfasis);

uSualod dasaqmebisagan miRebuli Semosavlebis wilis

statistikuri Sefaseba;

mosaxleobis mier miRebuli socialuri transferebis statistikuri

daxasiaTeba;

samuSao Zalis ganaTlebis donis amaRlebaze da kvlifikaciis

SeZenaze gaweuli xarjebis zomisa da dinamikis Seswavla.

leqcia 11. cxovrebis donis saerTaSoriso statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema 2. mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da xarjebisa statistika 3. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis Seswavla 4. siRaribis statistikiuri Seswavla 5. materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis

maCveneblebi 6. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi 7. mosaxleobis Tavisufali drois statistika

207

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis cneba da maCvenebelTa sistema

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis yovelmxrivi gamokvleva warmoebs 1950

wlidan. dawyebuli 1970 wlidan am kvlevebma miiRo mudmivi da

mravalmxrivi xasiaTi. saerTaSoriso statistikaSi arsebobs mosaxleobis

cxovrebis donis cnebis sxvadasxva ganmarteba. ganasxvaveben mosaxleobis

cxovrebis donis cnebas farTo da viwro gagebiT:

viwro gagebiT _ esaa materialuri da sulieri keTildReobiT

piradi moTxovnebis dakmayofileba;

farTo gagebiT _ esaa mosaxleobis cxovrebis socialur-

ekonomikuri pirobebis mTeli kompleqsi. am konteqstSi mas

uwodeben cxovrebis xarisxs.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis xarisxis oTx dones gamyofen:

1. siRatake _ esaa biologiuri kriteriumebis mixedviT materialuri

keTildReobebisa da momsaxurebis minimaluri nakrebi, romelTa,

moxmareba aucilebelia adamianis sicocxlisunarianobis

SesanarCuneblad.

2. siRaribe _ esaa materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis

moxmareba muSaobis unaris SenarCunebis doneze (samuSao Zalis

aRwarmoebis qveda zRvari). saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba

siRaribis ori gansazRvra: absoluturi da SefardebiTi. pirvel

SemTxvevaSi siRaribeSi igulisxmeba Sinameuneobebis iseTi

mdgomareoba, romlis drosac isini ver uzrunvelyofen TavianT

Tavs janmrTelobis SenarCunebisa da zomierad aqtiuri SromiTi

cxovrebisaTvis absoluturad aucilebeli keTildReobiT. meore

SemTxvevaSi siRaribeSi igulisxmeba Sinameuneobebis dabali

Semosavlebi, romelic mniSvnelovnad dabalia romelime micemul

sandartze.

3. mosaxleobis cxovrebis normaluri done – esaa materialuri

keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba mecnierulad

dasabuTebuli racionaluri normebis mixedviT, romelic

uzrunvelyofs adamianis fizikuri da inteleqtualuri Zalebis

aRdgenas.

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4. SeZlebuli _ keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba im doneze,

romelic uzrunvelyofs adamianis yovelmxriv ganviTarebas.

cneba ,,cxovrebis dones” gaaCnia rTuli struqtura, vinaidan is

axasiaTebs adaminTa sicocxlisunarianobis sferos, sadac gadaikveTeba

ekonomikuri, socialuri da fsiqologiuri urTierTobebi.

cxovrebis done _ adamianTa ara mxolod fiziologiuri, sulieri da

sociluri moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis donea, aramed is agreTve

moxmarebuli keTildReobis raodenobacaa da xarisxic.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi Cndeba axali faqtorebi da pirobebi, rac

kidev ufro arTulebs mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis Sedarebas Dda

Sepirispirebas. Aam pirobebs miekuTvnebian:

qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done da misi potenciali;

finansuri sistemis mdgomareoba;

bunebrivi resursebiT uzrunvelyofiloba;

qveynis inteleqtualuri potencialis done;

geografiuli faqtorebi;

erovnuli tradiciebi da Taviseburebebi.

zemoaRniSnuls, unda daematos, is rom cxovrebis done SeiZleba

ganxilul iqnes rogorc keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis gansazRvruli

minimumi.

1. fiziologiuri minimumi, romlis drosac saSualebebis 80%-ze meti

modis kvebis produqtebze. rac Seexeba samrewvelo saqonels, es is

saqonelia romlis gareSe SeuZlebelia yofna (tansacmeli,

fexsacmeli). momsaxurebaze danaxarjebi umniSvneloa.

fiziologiuri minimumi aZlevs adamians mxolod arsebobis

saSualebas, Sromisunarianobis aRdgenis gareSe.

2. saarsebo minimumi uzrunvelyofs adamianis ara mxolod arsebobas,

aramed misi Sromisunarianobis aRdgenas.

3. socialuri done. moxmarebis es done efuZneba racionalur biujets

_ egreT wodebul naklebad uzrunvelyofilobis dones.

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cxovrebis done SeiZleba gaizomos, rogorc mTlian mosaxleobasTan

mimarTebiT aseve mosaxleobis calkeul jgufTan mimarTebiT.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis done ganixileba, rogorc sazogadoebrivi

warmoebis socialuri efeqtianobis maCvenebeli.

vinaidan ar arsebobs mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis kategoriis

erTmniSvnelovani gansazRvra, diskusiuri rCeba, misi adekvaturi

statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis aucilebeli maCvenebelTa CamonaTvalis

sakiTxi.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad, Aam dargis

specialistebis mier, SemoTavazebulia:

calkeuli kerZo maCveneblebi;

erTi ganzogadebuli maCvenebeli;

maCvenebelTa sistema.

kerZo maCveneblebi axasiaTeben mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis calkeul

mxareebs, rac araris sakmarisi am kategoriis kompleqsuri

daxasiaTebisaTvis. ganzogadebuli maxasiaTeblis saxiT iyo

SemoTavazebuli: realuri xelfasis indeqsi, saarsebo minimumis indeqsi,

cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsi. yoveli es maCvenebeli faseulia, magram

ar iZleva cxovrebis yovelmxriv daxasiaTebas.

amJamad mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gaeros

statistikuri komisiis rekomendaciiT gamoiyofa maCvenebelTa Semdegi

jgufebi:

mosaxleobis demografiuli daxasiaTebebi (Sobadoba, mokdaoba,

daavadeba, sicocxlis xangrZlivoba);

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi (realuri da nominaluri);

xarjebisa da danazogis maCveneblebi;

mosaxleobis mier materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis

moxmarebis maCveneblebi;

mosaxleobis sacxovrebliTa da xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonliT

uzrunvelyofis maCveneblebi;

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dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis maCveneblebi;

mosaxleobis Sromis pirobebis maCveneblebi;

Tavisufali drois maCveneblebi;

ganaTlebis, jandacvis, kultiris, fizkulturisa da sportis,

turizmisa da dasvenebis maCveneblebi.

cxovrebis donis kategoriis sirTule da mravalwaxnagoba ganapirobebs

misi kompleqsuri daxasiaTebis aucileblobas maCvenebelTa sistemis

safuZvelze. imis gamo rom cxovrebis donis yvela elementi obieqturad

urTierTdakavSirebulia, urTierTdakavSirebuli unda iyos maCvenebelTa

sistemac.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi Semavali yvela

maCvenebeli SeiZleba daiyos or jgufad:

1. cxovrebis donis raodenobis maxasiaTebli raodenobrivi

maCveneblebi:

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi;

materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis da xarjebis maCveneblebi;

danazogebis;

sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofisa da qonebis dagrovebis maCveneblebi.

2. xarisxobrivi maCveneblebi:

demografiuli statistikis maCveneblebi (deda da bavSvTa

sikvdilianobis koeficientebi, cxovrebis saSualo xangrZlivoba);

janmrTelobis mdgomareobisa da dacvis maCveneblebi;

moxmarebuli kvebis produqtebis struqturisa da xarisxis

maCveneblebi;

wera-kiTxvis gavrcelebulobis, ganaTlebisa da kulturis

maCveneblebi;

sacxovreblis kofortulobis maCveneblebi.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba Semdegi

wyaroebi:

mosaxleobis aRwerebi;

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sacxovreblis aRwerebi;

specialuri SerCeviTi gamokvlevebi;

mimdinare aRwerebi.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis doneze yvelaze sruli informaciis momcvelia

mosaxleobis aRwerebi. maTi upiratesoba mdgomareobs:

universaluroba amosavali erTobliobis mocvis TvalsazrisiT;

miRebuli informaciis farTo speqtri;

Sedegebis detaluri dokumentireba.

naklovaneba ki is aris, rom aRwerebi tardeba 10 weliwadSi erTxel.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis statistika

mosaxleobis Semosavlebi _ esaa resursebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba:

piradi moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad;

gadasaxadebisa da sxva valdebulebebisaTvis da nebayoflobiTi

gadaxdebisaTvis;

danazogebze.

hiksis koncefciis Tanaxmad Semosavlebs miekuTvneba is saSualebebi,

romlebic gamoiyeneba mxolod moxmarebaze, mosaxleobis simdidris

Semcirebis gareSe. es koncefciaa Cadebuli eas-Si, romelSic

Semosavlebs ar miekuTvneba arsebuli aqtivebis gayidva.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebi Seadgens misi materialuri keTildReobis

safuZvels. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis erT-erTi Tavisebureba

mdgomareobs imasSi, rom isini erTdroulad asaxaven ekonomikur da

socialur procesebs da movlenebs.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

Semosavlebis zomisa da struqturis daxasiaTeba;

fuladi Semosavlebis diferenciaciis analizi;

fuladi Semosavlebis dinamikis Seswavla;

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moxmarebasa da sxva socialur-ekonomikur maCveneblebze

Semosavlebis gavlenis Sewavla.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaTvaliswinebulia mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

Semdegi maCvenebelTa sistema:

pirveladi Semosavlebi;

mimdinare transferebi fulad formaSi;

socialuri transferebi naturalur formaSi;

gankargvadi Semosavlebi;

koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavlebi.

pirveladi Semosavlebi _ esaa Sinameurneobebis mier sawarmoo

saqmianobaSi monawileobisa da aqtivebis flobiT miRebuli Semosavlebi.

sawarmoo saqmianobaSi monawileobisgan miRebul Semosavlebs

miekuTvnebian Sromis anazRaureba da Sereuli Semosavlebi.

Sereuli Semosavlebi _ esaa Semosavlebis nairsaxeoba, romelSic

gaerTianebulia Sromis anazRaureba da mogeba. Sereul Semosavlebs

miekuTvneba Semosavlebi piradi damxmare meurneobidan, kerZo samewarmeo

saqmianobidan, Tavisufali profesiis pirTa Semosavlebi, saavtoro

honorarebi da a.S.

sakuTrebidan Semosavlebs Rebuloben araaRdgeniTi materialuri

aqtivebis mflobelebi (miwis, miwisqveSa resursebis) da finansuri

aqtivebis mflobelebi. ganasxvaveben sakuTrebidan Semosavlebis sam

formas: renta, procentebi da dividendebi.

mimdinare transferebi mosaxleobas SeuZlia miiRos da gadasces fuladi

formiT. gadacemul mimdinare transferebs miekuTvneba Semosavlebis

miRebasTan, qonebis flobasTan, jarimebTan da a.S. dakavSirebiT

saxelmwifosTvis gadaxdili gadasaxadebi. miRebul transferebs

miekuTvneba pensiebi, daxmarebebi, stipendiebi, mogebebi latariiT,

sazRvargareT mcxovrebi ojaxis wevrebis fuladi gzavnilebi da a.S.

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mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi CairTveba mimdinare transferebis saldo, e.i.

sxvaoba miRebul da gacemul mimdinare transferebs Soris:

mt = mtmiR. _ mtgac

fuladi saxis mimdinare transferebisgan gansxvavebiT socialur

transferebs mosaxleoba Rebulobs (magram ar gascems) saxelmwifo

dawesebulebisagan da arakomerciuli organizaciebisagan naturalur

formaSi. maT miekuTvnebian: wamlebis, invalidebis etlebis, kvebis

produqtebis, tansacmlis saxiT materialuri daxmarebis gaweva ufasod

an SeRavaTiani fasiT.

gankargvadi Semosavali _ esaa Semosavlebi romlis gamoyeneba SeuZliaT

Sinameurneobebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis

finansirebis an dazogvisaTvis.

gankargvad Semosavals easi gansazRvravs, rogorc maqsimalur Tanxas,

romlis daxarjva SeuZliaT Sinameuneobebs saangariSo periodSi

saboloo moxmarebaze, dagrovebuli finansuri da arafinansuri aqtivebis

CarTvis da valdebulebebis gazrdis gareSe.

koreqtirebuli gankargadi Semosavali _ esaa gankargvad Semosavals

plius Sinameuneobis mier saxelmwifo dawesebulebebisagan da

arakomerciuli organizaciebisagan naturaluri fomiT miRebuli

socialuri transferebi:

kgS = gS + st

kategoria ,,koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali” mniSvnelovania

mosaxleobis ganviTarebis donis ufro kompleqsuri daxasiaTebisaTvis,

ramdenadac iZleva mosaxleobis keTildReobis im komponentebis

gaTvaliswinebis saSualebas, romlebic dakavSirebulia saqonlisa da

mosaxurebis ufasod miRebasTan.

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Semosavlebis CamoTvlili saxeobebi gaiangariSeba mimdinare da mudmiv

fasebSi. Semosavlebi mimdinare fasebSi iwodeba nominalur Semosavlebad,

mudmiv fasebSi ki _ realur Semosavlebad.

Semosavlebis gadaangariSeba mimdinare fasebidan realur fasebSi

xorcieldeba samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis safuZvelze (Isam.fas.):

pSreal. = pSnom./Isam.fas,

sadac pSreal. Aaris pirveladi Semosavlebi mudmiv fasebSi;

pSnom. _ pirveladi Semosavlebi mimdinare fasebSi.

analogiurad gadaiangariSeba gankargvadi da koreqtirebuli gankargvadi

Semosavali mimdinare fasebidan mudmiv fasebSi.

Sinameuneobebis koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali gamoyenebis

stadiaze iyofa or nawilad:

faqtobrivi saboloo moxmareba;

danazogebi.

Sinameuneobebis faqtobrivi saboloo moxmareba Sedgeba samomxmareblo

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvaze gaweuli xarjebisa da

Sinameuneobebis mier saxelmwifo dawesebulebebis da arakomerciuli

organizaciebis seqtoridan miRebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

Rirebulebisgan.

saerTaSoriso klasifikaciis Tanaxmad samomxmareblo saqonlis da

momsaxurebis Sesyidvaze gaweuli xarjebi nawildeba Semdeg muxlebad:

sursaTi, sasmelebi, Tambaqo;

tansacmeli, fexsacmeli;

sacxovrisis da komunaluri momsaxurebis gadaxdebi;

avejisa da sacxovrisis Senaxva;

jandacva;

transporti da kavSirgabuloba;

215

kultura, dasveneba, sporti, turizmi;

ganaTlebis momsaxurebebi;

sastumroebi da restornebi;

sxva saqoneli da momsaxureba.

motanili klasifikaciis Sesabamisad mosaxleobis xarjebis Seswavlisas

gaiangariSeba:

struqturis maCveneblebi, e.i. yoveli muxlis wili xarjebis mTlian

moculobaSi;

dinamikis maCveneblebi;

struqturuli gansxvavebebis absoluturi da SefardebiTi

koeficientebi.

Sinameurneobebis xarjebis droSi struqturis cvlilebebis

Sesafaseblad SemoTavazebulia struqturuli Zvrebis absoluturi

koeficienti:

struqturuli Zvrebis absoluturi koeficienti = ,01

n

dd

sadac 1d da 0d aris konkretuli saxeobis xarjebis wili (%) Sesabamisad

saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi;

n _ xarjebis jgufis ricxvi.

Tu es koeficienti 3%-ze metia, maSin xarjebis struqtura saangariSo

periodSi sabazisosTan SedarebiT arsebiTad Seicvala.

bulgareli statistikosis g.gateevis mier SemoTavazebulia

struqturuli Zvrebis integraluri koeficienti (Kint.):

Kint. = .)

)(2

1

2

0

2

01

dd

dd

216

es maCvenebeli iqneba nulis toli, Tu Sesadarisi struqturebi ar

Seicvala. Tu Sesadarisi struqturebi mTlianad Seicvala, is 1-is toli

iqneba.

struqturuli Zvrebis integraluri koeficienti SeiZleba gamoyenebul

iqnes erT periodSi, magram mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufSi xarjebis

struqturaSi gansxvavebebis dasaxasiaTeblad:

Kint. = ,)(

)(

22

2

ji

ji

dd

dd

sadac id da jd aris saangariSo periodSi Sinameurneobis sxvadasxva

socialuri jgufebis konkretuli saxeobis xarjebis wili.

mosaxleobis keTildReobis xarisxis kriteriumia saojaxo biujetSi

sasursaTo saqonelze daxarjuli saSualebebis wili.

engelis kanonis Sesabamisad rac ufro maRalia es wili, miT ufro

dabalia keTildReobis done. ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikaSi kvebaze

ixarjeba yvela saxeobis Semosavlebis 20%-mde. Tu kvebaze ixarjeba

yvela saxeobis Semosavlebis 60-70%, maSin qveyana iTvleba Raribad, da am

SemTxvevaSi, mosaxleobis didi nawili, gamomdinare moxmarebis

mecnierulad dasabuTebuli normebidan, aris naklebad uzrunvelyofili.

garda amisa engelis kanoni axasiaTebs samomxmareblo saqonlis da

momsaxurebis xarjebis damokidebulebas Semosavlebis cvlilebaze.

realuri gankargvadi Semosavlebis zrdisas meoradi keTildReobis

moxmareba izrdeba ufro swrafad, vidre pirveli moTxovnilebis

sagnebisa.

xarjebis dinamikis Sewavlisas gaiangariSeba xarjebis yoveli muxlis

absuluturi mateba, zrdis da matebis tempebi.

rac Seexeba struqturuli Zvrebis absolutur da SefardebiT

koeficientebs, isini SeiZleba gaangariSdes dinamikaSi da sivrceSi. am

217

koeficientebis gaangariSeba gansakuTrebul interess warmoadgens qveynis

SigniT mosaxleobis socialuri jgufebis xarjebis struqturaSi

gansxvavebebisa da sxvadasxva qveynis mosaxleobis xarjebis struqturaSi

gansxvavebebis dasaxasiaTeblad.

Tu koreqtirebuli gankargvadi Semosavali (kgS) aRemateba faqtobriv

saboloo moxmareba (fsm), maSin adgili aqvs mTlian dazogvas (md):

md = kgS _ fsm.

msoflio praqtikaSi, Semosvalebis im nawilis dasaxasiaTeblad, romelic

xarjebis anazRaurebis Semdeg rCeba mosaxleobas, gaiagariSeba Semdegi

maCveneblebi:

1. dazogvisken midrekileba = dazogvis absuluturi mateba/fuladi

Semosavlebis absolutruri mateba

es maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba danazogebisa da Semosavlebis kavSiris

Sesaswavlad. Tu es Tanafardoba meryrobs 25-33% farglebSi, maSin

mdgomareoba iTvleba normalurad. am sazRvrebis gadameteba adasturebs,

rom dazogva aris iZulebiTi da gamowveulia saWiro saqonlis da

momsaxurebis naklebobiT. dazogvis es nawili iwodeba moTxovnis

inflaciad.

dazogvisken midrekilebis maCvenebelze moqmedi faqtorebis Sewavla aris

saerTaSoriso statistikis mniSvnelovani amocana da warmoadgens,

mosaxleobis Tavisufali resursebis, investirebis da Semosavlebis

gadanawilebis mizniT, mozidvis sakiTxebiT dakavebul, saxelmwifo

mmarTvelobis organoebis praqtikul interess.

2. danazogis norma = danazogis jami/mTliani gankargvadi Semosavali.

mosaxleobis danazogi SeiZleba gamoisaxos naturalur da RirebulebiT

formaSi.

218

danazogebis RirebulebiTi forma warmoadgens mosaxleobis xelze

fulis matebas da fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebis matebas.

mosaxleobis danazogi naturaluri formiT _ esaa mosaxleobis

kuTvnili materialuri aqtivebis (kerZo sakuTrebaSi miwis, sacxovrisis,

sameurneo nagebobebis, transportis, materialuri maragebis) Rirebulebis

matebas.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis Sewavla

Semosavlebis donesa da maT mimRebTa ricxvs Soris arsebobs

ukudamokidebuleba. ekonomikur literaturaSi am damokidebulebam

miiRo paretos kononis saxelwodeba, xolo mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi

uTanabrobis raodenobrivma sazomma _ paretos koeficientis

saxelwodeba.

italielma ekonomistma da sociologma v. paretom ganazogada zogierTi

qveynis mosaxleobis Semosavlebze monacemebi da mivida daskvnamde, rom

Semosavlebis donesa da maT mimRebTa ricxvs Soris arsebobs

ukudamokidebuleba.

amerikelma statistikosma m. lonrencma ganaviTara paretos kanoni. mis

mier gamoyvanili damokidebuleba man aCvena krafikze da gamosaxa

SefardebiTi sidideebiT. grafikma miiRo lorencis mrudis saxelwodeba,

an koncentraciis mrudis.

italielma ekonomistma k. jinim SemogvTavaza Semosavlebis ganawilebis

raodenobrivi daxasiaTeba lorencis mrudiT Seqmnili segmentis farTisa

da kvadratis diagonalis am kvadratis farTis naxevarTan Sefardebis

saxiT.

lorencis meTodi gansxvavdeba paretos meTodidan imiT, rom

Semosavlebis (simdidris) moculoba, da agreTve miRebuli Semosavlebis

an simdidris mflobelebis raodenoba gamoisaxeba SefardebiTi

ricxvebiT.

219

mosaxleobis socialuri diferenciaciis Seswavla warmoadgens

saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-erT aqtualur amocanas. Semosavlebis

diferenciacia iwvevs mosaxlebis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebaSi

gansxvavebebs, e.i. mis cxovrebis doneSi.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis dasaxasiaTeblad

gaiangariSeba Semdegi maCveneblebi:

modaluri Semosavali;

medianuri Semosavali;

lorencis koeficienti;

jinis koeficienti;

struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti;

Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri (10) koeficienti;

fondebis koeficienti;

Semosavlebis deficiti.

modaluri Semosavali (moda) esaa Semosavlis done, romelic

mosaxleobaSi yvelaze xSirad gvxdeba:

,)()( 3212

120

ffff

ffixM

oM

sadac oMx aris modaluri itervalis qveda zRvari;

i _ modaluri itervalis sidide;

2f _ modaluri itervalis sixSire;

1f _ modaluris wina itervalis sixSire;

3f _ modaluris momdevno itervalis sixSire;

medianuri Semosavali (mediana) _ esaa ganawilebis ranJirebuli mwkrivis

SuaSi myofi Semosavlis maCvenebeli:

,21

Me

m

MeMef

Sf

ixM

220

sadac Mex aris medianuri itervalis qveda zRvari;

i _ medianuri itervalis sidide;

1mS _ medianur itervalamde dagrovili sixSireTa jami;

Mef _ medianuri itervalis sixSire.

medianuri da modaluri Semosavlebi aris saSualosuladi Semosavlis,

misi saSualo mniSvnelobidan gadaxris mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli. Tu

Semosavlebis medianuri da modaluri sidideebi dabalia saSualo

doneze, es niSnavs, imas rom Sinameuneobebis erTobliobis umetes nawils

an gamokvleul pirTa umetesobas aqvs Semosavlebis saSulo

mniSvnelobaze damali Semosavlebi.

socialuri uTanabrobis lorencis koeficienti ganisazRvreba

formuliT:

lorencis koeficienti 2

yx,

sadac x aris Semosavlebis gansazRvruli donis mosaxleobis wilia

mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi;

y _ yoveli jgufis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis wili Semosavlebis

mTlian moculobaSi.

lorencis koeficienti uCvenebs mosaxleobis calkeul jgufebs Soris

Semosavlebis ganawilebis Tanabrobis dones, an Semosavlebis

koncentraciis dones da icvleba 0-dan _ 1-mde. sruli Tanabrobis

SemTxvevaSi es maCvenebeli nulis tolia, e.i. saubaria Semosavlebis

egalitarul ganawilebaze (yvela monawile ganawilebaSi Rerbulobs

Tanabar wils). sruli uTanabrobis SemTxvevaSi lorencis koeficienti

erTis tolia, e.i. saubaria Semosavlebis antiegalitarul ganawilebaze.

(ganawilebis erTi monawile Rebulobs yvela Semosavals).

jinis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:

jinis koeficienti = *(21 x ykum.)+ xy

221

jinis koeficienti icvleba 0-dan _ 1-mde. ramdenad ufro uaxlovdeba

misi mniSvneloba 1-s, miT ufro maRalia uTanabrobis done Semosavlebis

ganawilebaSi (e.i. DmiT ufro didi doniTaa koncentrirebuli

Semosavlebi mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis xelSi)

struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:

struqturuli SeuRlebis koeficienti = ,)(

)(2

2

yx

yx

sadac x aris Semosavlebis gansazRvruli donis mosaxleobis wilia

mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi;

y _ yoveli jgufis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis wili Semosavlebis

mTlian moculobaSi.

Semosavlebis deciluri koeficienti _ esaa yvelaze mdidari 10%

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis jamis Sefardeba yvelaze naklebad

uzrunvelyofili 10% mosaxleobis Semosavlebis jamTan:

,1

9

D

DKD

sadac 9D da 1D _ Sesabamisad mecxre da pirveli decilia.

Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti uCvenebs Tu

ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze mdidari 10% mosaxleobis minimaluri

Semosavlebi naklebad uzrunvelyofili 10% mosaxleobis maqsimalur

Semosavlebs.

fondebis koeficienti ganisazRvreba formuliT:

fondebis koeficienti = ,

1

_

10

_

D

D

sadac 1

_

D da 10

_

D aris Sesabamisad minimaluri Semosavlis mqone 10%

mosaxleobis TveSi saSualosuladi Semosavali, da misi yvelaze mdidari

nawilis 10%-sa.

222

fondebis koeficienti SeiZleba ganisazRvros aseve formuliT:

fondebis koeficienti = ,1

10

D

D

sadac 1D da 10D aris saSualosuladi Semosavali TveSi Sesabamisad

minimaluri Semosavlis mqone 10% mosaxleobis da 10% yvelaze mdidari

mosaxleobisa.

Semosavlebis deficiti ganisazRvreba mosaxleobis im nawilisaTvis,

romlebis faqtiuri Semosavlebi saarsebo minimumze dabalia:

Semosavlebis deficiti = ,**__

SDSSD Fm

sadac .

_

mD da FD_

aris Sesabamisad minimaluri da faqtiuri

saSualosuladi Semosavli;

S _ saarsebo minimumze naklebi Semosavlebis mqone.

siRaribis statistikiuri Seswavla

mosaxleobis siRaribis Seswavla aris saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-

erTi umniSvnelovanesi amocana.

mosaxleobis siRaribis Seswavlisas aucilebelia iseTi cnebis

ganmarteba, rogoricaa siRaribis zRvari da Raribi mosaxleobisadmi

mikuTvnebis kritriumebis SemuSaveba.

siRaribis zRvars saerTaSoriso statistikaSi xangrZlivi drois

ganmavlobaSi ar hqonda mkafio gansazRvra da sxvadasxva qveyanaSi is

ganisazRvreboda sxvadsxvanairad. Tumca rekonstruqciisa da

ganviTarebis saerTaSoriso bankma 1972 wels aseT zRvrad daadgina

mosaxleobis uRaribesi 40% nawilis Semosavlebi, sxva qveynebSi _

saSualosuladi Semosavlebis 50%, xolo kanadaSi _ Semosavlebis 62%.

aSS-Si siRaribis zRvari ganisazRvreboda kvebis minimaluri racionis

samjeradi RirebulebiT.

223

amJamad msoflio bankis kriteriumebiT ukiduresi siRaribis zRvarad

evropisa da centraluri aziis gardamavali qveynebisaTvis iTvleba

dReSi erTi kacis xarjebi erTi dolaris doneze.

gaeros evropuli regionaluri komisiis kriteriumebiT evropis

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis siRaribis SefardebiTi zRvari aris yveynis

mixedviT saSualo Semosavlebis 2/3 toli sidide.

evrokavSiris statistikuri komisiis kriteriumebiT evrokavSiris

qveynebSi siRaribis zRvari aris qveynis mosaxleobis medianuri

Semosavlis 50%.

siRaribis zRvari warmoadgens obieqturad gansazRvrul sidides,

gaangariSebuls gamomdinare materialuri keTildReobisa da

momsaxurebis moxmarebis minimaluri erovnuli normebidan.

Raribebs miekuTvnebian pirebi:

romelTa suladi Semosavlebis done saarsebo minimumze dabalia;

romelTa moxmarebuli kvebis produqtebis kaloriuloba

mecnierulad dasabuTebul minimalur fiziologiur normaze

dabalia;

romelTa Semosavlebi mosaxleobis danarCeni jgufebis

Semosavlebis doneze dabalia (magaliTad, mTliani erTobliobis

saSualo medeianuri an saSualo Semosavalis naxevarze dabalia);

romelTa SemosavlebSi kvebaze xarjebi aRemateba mocemul sidides.

Sso meTodologiiT, sakuTriv Raribebs miekuTvnebian pirebi, romelTa

erToblivi Semosavlebi saarsebo minimumze 2 jer dabalia.

siRaribis socialur-ekonomikuri portreti moicavs siRaribis, rogorc

sazogadoebis gansazRvruli nawilis aRmwer, daxasiaTebaTa sistemas. am

sistemas miekuTvneba:

demografiuli maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobis saSualo zoma,

Sobadoba, sikvdilianoba, avadoba);

224

ekonomikuri maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobebis qoneba, Semosavlebis

wyaroebi da maTi gamoyeneba)

socialuri maCveneblebi (Sinameurneobebis biujetis deficiti,

sacxovrebeli pirobebi, socialuri transferebi, kvebis

produqtebis kaloriuloba da done).

siRaribis mdgomareobis ufro siRrmiseuli SeswavlisaTvis gamoiyeneba

Semdegi maCvenebelTa sistema:

1. saarsebo minimumze dabali gankargvadi Semosavlebis mqone

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

2. saarsebo minimumi;

3. siRaribis koeficienti;

4. Raribi mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavali;

5. Raribi ojaxebis Semosavlebis deficiti;

6. dabali Semosavlis Sualedi;

7. siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi;

8. siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi.

saarsebo minimumze dabali gankargvadi Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba ganisazRvreba, mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavlebis

donis mixedviT, mosaxleobis ganawilebis mwkrivebis safuZvelze, im

pirTa dajamebiT romelTa saSualo suladi Semosavlebi saarsebo

minimumze dabalia

saarsebo minimumi _ esaa adamianis sicocxliunarianobis uzrunvelyofisa

da misi janmrTelobis SenarCunebisaTvis aucilebeli materialuri

keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis minimaluri nakrebi.

ekonomikuri analizisas mniSvnelovania ara mxolod RaribTa saerTo

raodenobis gamovlena, aramed mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi

RaribTa wilis da maTi materialuri mdgomareobis deficiturobis donis

dadgena.

225

siRaribis done (koeficienti) = mosaxleobis ricxovnoba, romelTa

gankargvadi Semosavali saarsebo minimumze dabalia (Raribi mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba)/ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTan.

es maCvenebeli axasiaTebs siRaribis zRvars miRma mcxovrebi mosaxleobis

wils.

Raribi mosaxleobis saSualo suladi Semosavali = Raribi mosaxleobis

faqtiuri gankargvadi Semosavalis jami/ Raribi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba

siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi ( I ssiR.) ganisazRvreba formuliT:

I ssiR.=

n

i i

ii

SM

SHSM

N 1

1,

sadac N aris gamosakvlevi Sinameurneobebis saerTo ricxovnoba;

n_ saarsebo minimumze dabali Semosavlebis mqone Sinameurneobebis

ricxvi;

iSM _ i -ri Sinameurneobis saarsebo minimumis saSualo suladi

sidide, gaangariSebuli misi sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturis

gaTvaliswinebiT;

iD _ saarsebo minimumze dabali Semosavlebis mqone Sinameurneobebis

saSualo suladi Semosavali.

siRaribis siRrmis indeqsi axasiaTebs gamosakvlevi Sinameuneobebis

Semosavlis deficits, maTi Semosavlis erT meurneobis saarsebo

minimumidan martivi saSualo gadaxris saxiT.

siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi ( I ssimw.) ganisazRvreba formuliT:

I ssimw.=

2

1

1

n

i i

ii

SM

SHSM

N

226

siRaribis simwvavis indeqsi axasiaTebs Raribi Sinameurneobebis

Semosavlebis saSualo kvadratul gadaxras saarsebo minimumis

sidididan da gamoisaxeba Semosavlebis deficitis kvadratuli

jamobrivivi sididiT.

Raribi ojaxebis Semosavlebis deficiti _ esaa im fuladi saSualebebis

moculoba, romelic aucilebelia Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

gasazrdelad siRaribis zRvrulamde.

Semosavlebis deficitis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba sxvadasxva tipis

ojaxze, ramdenadac yoveli ojaxisTvis arsebobs siRaribis konkretuli

zRvari. es zRvari damokidebulia ojaxis Semadgenolobaze, misi wevrebis

sqesobriv-asakobriv daxasiaTebebze. Semosavlebis deficiti gaiangariSeba

rogorc Raribi ojaxebis yvela jgufisTvis, aseve erTi ojaxisaTvis an

erT sul mosaxleze.

Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlebis deficiti axasiaTebs misi materialuri

arasakmarisobis dones.

dabali Semosalis Sualedi warmoadgens Semosavlis deficitis

Sefardebas saarsebo minimumTan:

dabali Semosalis Sualedi = Semosavlis deficiti/saarsebo minimumi

(siRaribis zRvari).

Tanamedrove etapze siRaribis ZiriTadi mizezebia:

daqiravebuli muSakebis calkeuli kategoriebis Sromis

anazRaurebis dabali done;

kmayofaze myofTa didi raodenoba;

umuSevroba;

pensiebisa da Semweobebis dabali done.

gaeros ganviTarebis programis specialistebis mier SemoTavazebulia

siRaribis indeqsi, romlis gaangariSebisas gaiTvaliswineba sami

227

maCvenebeli. es maCveneblebi gansazRvraven mosaxleobis SesaZleblobas

hqondes Rirseuli cxovreba. maT miekuTvnebian:

1. im mosaxleobis wili, romelTa sicocxlis mosalodneli

xangrZlivoba Seadgen 40 welze naklebs;

2. wera-kiTxvis ucodinarTa wili zrdasruli mosaxleobis saerTo

ricxovnobaSi;

3. arsebobis materialuri pirobebi.

bolo maCvenebeli moicavs Semdeg elementebs:

mosaxleobis im nawils, romlebisTvis miuwdomelia samedicino

momsaxureba;

mosaxleobis im nawils, romlebisTvis miuwdomelia dasalevi

wyali;

xuT wlamde bavSvebis wili, romlebic ganicdian sakvebis

ukmarisobas.

siRaribis saerTo indeqsi warmoadgens regionis an qveynis mosaxleobis

wils, romelSic adgili aqvs CamoTvlil faqtorebs.

gaeros ganviTarebis programis monacemebiT 1994 wlis ganmavlobaSi

adamianTa siRaribis yvelaze maRali indeqsi moidioda pakistanze (46,8%).

adamianiseuli potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsis da adamianTa siRaribis

indeqsis monacemTa Sedarebisas SeiZleba daskvnis gakeTeba imaze, rom

maT Soris arsebobs ukukavSiri.

materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis

maCveneblebi

mosaxlebis mier materialuri keTildReobisa da momsaxurebis

moxmarebis donis da zrdis tempebis maCveneblebi miekuTvneba

mosaxleobis keTildReobisa da kulturuli zrdis maxasiaTebel

maCveneblebs. moTxovnilebebs warmoSobs sazogadoebis wevrebis

cxovrebis obieqturi pirobebi. isini asaxaven moxmarebis aucilebel

dones sazogadoebis sawarmoo Zalebis sakmaris doneze ganviTarebisas.

228

warmoeba da moxmareba urTierTdakavSirbulia. dagrovebis gadideba qmnis

warmoebis gafarToebis, da maSasadame, moxmarebis donis da

moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis xarisxis zrdis bazas. moxmarebis zrda

ki Tavis mxriv qmnis warmoebis gafarToebis, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis

amaRlebis winapirobas.

mosaxleobis moxmareba moicavs:

materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebas;

momsaxurebis moxmarebas.

materialuri keTildReobis da momsaxurebis moxmarebis statistika

moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs:

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis saerTo maculoba;

konkretuli saxeobis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis

saerTo maculoba;

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis moculoba erT sul

mosaxleze;

materialur keTildReobasa da momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis

moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis koeficienti;

elastikurobis koeficienti.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis saerTo maculoba, rogorc

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saboloo moxmarebis RirebulebiTi

daxasiaTeba, miekuTvneba cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan maCvenebelTa

ricxvs.

mniSvnelobis donis mixedviT materialur keTildReobasa da

momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis yvela xarji klasificirdeba sam jgufad:

pirveladi moTxovnilebis sagnebi;

naklebi moTxovnilebis sagnebi;

fufunebis sagnebi.

229

materialuri keTildReoba, gamoyenebis vadebis mixedviT, iyofa Semdeg

kategoriebze:

erTjeradi gamoyenebis (kvebis produqtebi);

araxangrZlivi gamoyenebis (tansacmeli, fexsacmeli);

xangrZlivi gamoyenebis (sam welze meti: aveji, sameurneo

daniSnulebis sagnebi, satransporto sasualebebi).

konkretuli saxeobis materialuri keTildReobis )(q moxmarebis saerTo

maculoba gaizomeba gazomvis naturalur erTeulebSi da warmoadgens

mTliani mosaxleobis mier ama Tu im saqonlis moxmarebis moculobas.

moxmarebis maculoba erT sul mosaxleze (individualuri moxmarebis

done) ganisazRvreba konkretuli saxeobis materialuri keTildReobi )(q

moxmarebis saerTo muculobis gayofiT mosaxleobis saerTo

ricxovnobaze

_

)(S :_

S

qDF ,

sadac FD aris erT sul mosaxleze konkretuli saxeobis materialuri

keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri done.

es maCvenebeli ganisazrvreba mTliani mosaxleobis, calkeuli

socialuri jgufebis, asakis, sqesis da a.S. mixedviT.

saerTaSoriso statistikaSi Teoriulad da praqtikulad ufro

SemuSavebulia mosaxleobis mier, naturalur gamosaxulebaSi, kvebis

produqtebis moxmarebis individualuri donis Sefaseba. am dros

gamoiyofa Semdegi kvebis produqtebi:

purproduqtebi;

bostneuli da baxCeuli;

xirci da xorcis produqtebi, xorcze gadaangariSebiT;

kartofili;

xili da kenkri;

rZe da rZis produqtebi, rZeze gadaangariSebiT;

230

Saqari;

kvercxi;

Tevzi da Tevzis produqtebi, Tevzze gadaangariSebiT;

mcenareuli zeTi.

kvebis produqtebis moxmareba ganixileba rogorc raodenobis aseve

xarisxis TvalsazrisiT. am mizniT saerTaSoriso statistikis praqtikaSi

gamoiTvleba moxmarebuli sakvebis kaloriulobis maCvenebeli, da

agreTve cilebis, cximebis, naxSirwylebis, vitaminebis Semcveloba.

kvebis produqtebis dabali xarisxi auaresebs mosaxleobis

janmrTelobis mdgomareobas, iwvevs seriozul daavadebebs.

mosaxleobis mier kvebis produqtebis moxmarebis maCveneblebi Znelad

eqvendebareba saerTaSoriso masStabiT Sedarebas. es aixsneba imiT, rom

moxmarebis struqturasa da doneze gavlenas axdens ama Tu im qveyanaSi

Seqmnili klimaturi pirobebi, erovnuli da kulturuli tradiciebi,

mosaxleobis struqtura sqesis, asakis, dasaqmebis saxeobis mixedviT.

moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis donis gamosavlenad saWiroa

moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis koeficientis ( DK ) gansazRvra:

,N

FD

D

DK

sadac FD aris erT sul mosaxleze calkeuli materialuri

keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri done;

ND _ mecnierulad dasabuTebuli done.

Tumca calkeuli konkretuli materialuri keTildReobis mixedviT

dakmayofilebis donis maCveneblebi ar iZleva mosaxleobis

moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis ganzogadebul daxasiaTebebs. amisaTvis

gaiangariSeben yvela moxmarebuli saqonlis mixedviT moTxovnilebaTa

dakmayofilebis donis indeqss:

231

,

N

F

pD

pDI

sadac FpD aris erT sul mosaxleze yvela saqonlis faqtiuri

moxmarebis Rirebuleba;

FpD _ erT sul mosaxleze am saqonelTa normatiuli nakrebis

Rirebuleba.

mosaxleobis mier materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis

damokidebuleba Semosavlebze gaizomeba a. marSalis elastikurobis

empiriuli koeficientis meSveobiT:

K el.= ,x

y

sadac y aris saSualosuladi moxmarebis matebis tempi %-Si;

x _ saSualosuladi Semosavlis matebis tempi %-Si.

elastikurobis koeficienti axasiaTebs, moxmarebis matebis ramdeni

procenti modis Semosavlebis matebis 1%-ze.

magaliTi. cxrilSi motanili monacemebis safuZvelze gaviangariSoT

elastikurobis koeficienti da gavakeToT daskvna.

mosaxleobis saSualosuladi Semosavlebi da xarjebi

erT sul mosaxleze sabaziso

periodi

saangariSo periodi

saSualosuladi Semosavli (f.e.)

saSualosuladi xarjebi kvebis

produqtebze (f.e.)

340

290

370

300

mocemul SemTxvevaSi K el.= .39,08,8

4,3

100100*340

370

100100*290

300

232

es niSnavs, rom Semosavlebis 1%-iT zrdisas kvebis produqtebze xarjebi

gaizarda 0,39%-iT.

elastikurobis koeficienti SeiZleba iyos 1-ze naklebi, 1-is toli da 1-

ze meti. is SeiZleba iqnes gaangariSebuli mTlianad yvela moxmarebuli

keTildReobis, calke sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlis mixedviT,

aseve sasursaTo saqonlis calkeuli saxeobebis mixedviT (puri, Saqari

da a.S.).

elastikurobis koeficienti Semosavlisgan sxvadasxva saqonlisa da

momsaxurebisaTvis gansxvavebulia. Tu elatikurobis koeficienti 1-is

tolia, maSin moxmareba icvleba Semosavlebis proporciulad. Tu is 1-ze

naklebia, maSin moxmareba izrdeba ufro nela vidre Semosavali da es

niSnavs imas, rom mocemuli saxeobis moxmarebaze xarjebis wili

mcirdeba. Tu is 1-ze metia, maSin moxmarebis zrdis tepi Semosavlebis

zrdis tempze maRalia, e.i. mocemuli saxeobis moxmarebaze xarjebis wili

izrdeba.

Semosavlisgan elastikurobis koeficienti kvebaze 1-ze naklebia,

samrewvelo saqonelze ki 1-ze meti.

cxadia, ramdenad metia Semosavlisgan moxmarebis elastikurobis

koeficienti, miT naklebia mocemuli saxeobis materialuri

keTildReobis moTxovnilebaTa dakmayofilebis done.

mosaxleobis xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonliT uzrunvelyofis

dasaxasiaTeblad saerTaSoriso statistikis praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba

uzrunvelyofilobis maCvenebeli (100 ojaxze an mosaxleobis 1000 kacze):

Muzr.= mosaxleobaSi arsebuli xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqoneli/ojaxis

ricxvi *100;

Muzr. = mosaxleobaSi arsebuli xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqoneli/

mosaxleobis ricxovnoba *1000.

233

uzrunvelyofiloba 100 ojaxze ganisazRvreba iseTi xangrZlivi

moxmarebis saqonlis mixedviT, romelic esaWiroeba ojaxs mTlianad

(macivari, televizori, sarecxi manqana da a.S.).

garda materialuri keTildReobisa mosaxleoba sargeblobs sxvadasxva

saxeobis momsaxurebas. momsaxurebis moxmareba gansxvavdeba materialuri

keTildReobis moxmarebisgan, imiT rom momsaxurebis warmoeba droSi ar

emTxveva mis moxmarebas.

ganasxvaveben fasian (sabazro) da ufaso (arasabazro) momsaxurebas. eas-

Si sabazro momsaxurebis arasabazrosgan gansasxvaveblad gamoiyeneba

gamoSvebis meTodi (sabazro fasebis mixedviT). Tu momsaxurebisgan

amonagebi faravs momsaxurebis gawevasTan dakavSirebuli xarjebis 50%-ze

mets, maSin es momsaxureba iTvleba sabazrod, Tu 50%-ze naklebs _

arasabazrod.

yvela samomxmareblo saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze mosaxleobis

moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:

,

:_

PMpq

SMPqpK

NN

sadac q aris materialuri keTildReobis moxmarebis faqtiuri

moculoba; M _ momsaxurebis moxmarebis faqtiuri moculoba; p _

saqonlis an momsaxurebis fasi; Nq _ saqonlis moxmarebis norma; NM _

momsaxurebis moxmarebis norma; _

S _ mosaxleobis ricxovnoba; pqN _ erT

sul mosaxleze saqonlis moxmarebis norma RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi;

pM N _ erT sul mosaxleze momsaxurebis moxmarebis norma RirebulebiT

gamosaxulebaSi.

adaminis humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi

specialur literaturaSi didi xania ganxileba mosaxleobis cxovrebis

donis erTiani ganzogadebuli (integraluri) maCveneblis SemuSavebis

234

mizanSewonilobisa da SesaZleblobis sakiTxi. amdagvari maCveneblis

SemuSaveba saerTaSoriso statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani amocanaa.

misi SemuSavebis aucilebloba eWvs ar iwvevs.

ramdenadac ganzogadebuli maCvenebeli Sedgeba kerZo maCveneblebisgan, is

unda uzrunvelyofdes yvela kerZo maCveneblis meTodologiur

erTianobas da gamosakvlevi maCveneblis dinamikisa da donis

erTmniSvnelovan Sefasebas.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis amdagvari ganzogadebuli maCveneblis

gaangariSebis SesaZleblobebi mravali aTeuli wlis ganmavlobaSi

ganixileboda gaero-Si. gaeros eqspertTa azriT statistikam jer kidev

ver ipova kerZo maCveneblebis gaerTianebisa da yovlismomcveli

maCvenebelis miRebis racionaluri xerxi. miuxedavad amisa aseTi

maCveneblis SemoTavazebis mcdeloba iyo yovelTvis da dRemde

grZeldeba.

gaeros socialuri statistikis samuSao jgufis mier ganzogadebuli

maCveneblebis saxiT SemoTavazebuli iyo erovnuli Semosavali erT sul

mosaxleobaze, kvebaze xarjebis wili Sinameurneobebis saerTo xarjebSi,

sikvdilianobis koeficienti gansazRvruli, rogorc 50-Ti da meti wlis

asakSi gardacvlilTa ricxvis Sefardeba gardacvlilTa saerTo

ricxovnobasTan, mosaxleobis sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba. Tumca

am maCveneblebis gamoyenebis praqtikam daadgina, rom arc erTi maTgani ar

SeiZleba gamodiodes mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maxasiaTebeli

ganzogadebuli maCveneblis saxiT. isini ufro warmoadgenen mosaxleobis

cxovrebis pirobebisa da gansazRvruli mxareebis maxasiaTebel kerZo

maCveneblebs.

bolo periodSi qveyanaTaSorisi SedarebisaTvis mosaxleobis cxovrebis

donis ganzogadebuli maCvenebelad gamoiyeneba adamianis potencialis

ganviTarebis indeqsi.

235

adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi _ esaa mosaxleobis

cxovrebis xarisxis kopleqsuri SedarebiTi daxasiaTeba. dawyebuli 1990

wlidan es maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba specializirebuli saerTaSoriso

organizaciis mier _ gaeros ganviTarebis programiT, mis mier, adamianis

mdgradi ganviTarebisaTvis sxvadasxva qveyanaSi arsebuli pirobebis

SefasebisaTvis, SemuSavebuli meTodologiiT.

adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi aris Sedgenili indeqsi,

romelic moicavs cxovrebis donis yvelaze mniSvnelovani aspeqtebis

amsaxvel sam maCvenebels:

1. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba.

2. ganaTlebis miRweuli done.

3. mSp-s realuri moculoba erT sul mosaxleobaze gaangariSebiT

(myidvelobiTi unaris paritetis safuZvelze dolarebSi).

adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi ganisazRvreba martivi

saSualo ariTmetikuliT aRniSnuli sami maCveneblis indeqsisgan:

apgi = .3

321 III

Tavis mxriv TiToeuli aRniSnuli indeqsi gaiangariSeba Semdegi

formuliT:

.minmax

min.

XX

XXI F

i

magaliTi. gvaqvs Semdegi monacemebi qveynis mixedviT:

dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, weli 70

mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis done, % 93

dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi saswavlo dawesebulebebis

moswavleTa erToblivi wili, % 69

realuri mSp-s erT sul mosaxleobaze (mup safuZvelze

dolarebSi) 3150

236

sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis indeqsis )( 1I gaangariSebisas

minimaluri mniSvneloba tolia 26 wlis, maqsimaluri _ 85 wlis.

.75,02585

2570

minmax

min.

XX

XXI F

i

ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi aris kombinirebuli maCvenebeli,

romelic ganisazrvreba mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis indeqsisa da

dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi saswavlo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa

erToblivi wilis indeqsis safuZvelze.

ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi )( 2I gaiangariSeba rogorc Sewonili

saSualo ariTmetikuli oro subindeqsisgan: mowifuli mosaxleobis

wignierbis indeqsis woniT 2/3 da dawyebiTi, saSualo da umaRlesi

saswavlo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa erToblivi wilis indeqsis woniT

1/3.

2I =2/3 I wig.+ 1/3 I wili,

mowifuli mosaxleobis wignierbis indeqsis ( I wig.) gaangariSebisas 15 da

meti wlis asakSi ,0min X %.100max X

I wig.= .93,00100

093

minmax

min.

XX

XX F

moswavleTa wilis indeqsi ganisazRvrisas 6-dan 24 wlamde asakis

pirebisaTvis: ,0min X %.100max X

I wili= .63,00100

069

minmax

min.

XX

XX F

maSin ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi )( 2I iqneba toli:

.85,069,0*3/193,0*3/22 I

erT sul mosaxleobaze realuri mSp-s indeqsis )( 3I gaangariSebisas am

maCveneblis minimaluri mniSvneloba miiReba 100 dolaris tolad, xolo

237

maqsimaluri mnisvneloba tolia keTildReobis maRali gonivruli

donisaTvis miRweuli zRvruli mniSvnelobisa. aseTad mTeli

msofliosaTvis iTvleba mSp saSualosuladi moculoba (5500):

3I = .897,01005500

1003150

minmax

min.

XX

XX F

adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi iqneba toli:

apgi = .832,03

897,085,075,0

ramdenad axlosaa apgi mniSvneloba 1-Tan, miT ufro maRalia mocemul

qveyanaSi adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis done. sxvaoba 1-sa da apgi

faqtiur mniSvnelobas Soris uCvenebs Tu ramdenia qveyanaSi kidev

gasakeTebeli zemoaRniSnuli donis misaRwevad.

maSasadame gaeros programis Tanaxmad nebismieri sazogadoebis mizani _

esaa am sami maCveneblidan TiToeulis maqsimaluri mniSvnelobis miRweva:

dabadebisas sicocxlis xangrZlivobis 85 wlamde gazrda, ganaTlebis

misawvdomoba qveynis mTliani mosaxleobisTvis, erT sul mosaxleobaze

mSp-s maRali (gonivrul sazrvrebSi) donis uzrunvelyofa.

apgi gamoiyeneba, adamianis ganviTarebis donis mixedviT, qveynebis

dajgufebis kriteriumad. qveynebSi sadac apgi toli an metia 0,8, iTvleba

adamianis potencialis ganviTarebis maRali donis qveynebad, qveynebi apgi

0,5_0,799 _ saSualo donis qveynebad da qveynebi apgi _ 0,5 iTvlebian

qveynebad adamianis ganviTarebis dabali doniT.

aRsaniSnavia, rom apgi gaangariSebis meTodologia mudmivad ixveweba.

diskusiuri rCeba misi agregirebisas gaTvaliswinebuli maCvenebelTa

SerCevis sakiTxi, da agreTve ganaTlebis miRweuli donis

gaangariSebisas gamoyenebuli wonebi.

rac Seexeba apgi gaangariSebisaTvis SerCeul maCveneblebs, gaeros

ganviTarebis programis specialistebis azriT, isini warmoadgenen

238

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donisa da pirobebis yvelaze mniSvnelovan

daxasiaTebas. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, Tavis

mxriv, aseve aris agregirebuli maCvenebeli, romelic amCnevs qveynis

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis dones, socialur politikas romelic tardeba

qveyanaSi, garemos, samedicino momsaxurebis xarisxs.

apgi gaangariSebis simartivis, universalobis, statistikuri

misawvdomobis miuxedavad, is ar SeiZleba gaangariSdes damoukideblad,

mSp dolarul ekvivalentSi gadaTvlis sirTulis gamo. am miznebisTvis

gamoiyeneba valutis myidvelobiTi unaris paritetebi, romlebic

ganisazRvreba xuT weliwadSi erTxel saerTaSoriso Sedarebebis

programebis Catarebis safuZvelze.

garda amisa, rogorc specialistebi Tvlian, apgi axasiaTebs Semdegi

naklovanebebi:

misi gaangariSebisaTvis, calkeuli qveynebis mixedviT, faqtiuri

monacemebis ar arseboba;

Semadgenlebis arasakmarisi nakrebi (mxolod sami maCvenebeli);

arasakmarisi argumentireba sabazo sidideebisaTvis miRebuli

zRvrebis sasargeblod (magaliTad, cxovrebis xangrZlivobis qveda

zRvari _ 25 weli, zeda _ 85 weli).

apgi asaxavs ara mxolod keTildReobis sidides, aramed gansazRvruli

qveynis mosaxleobis cxovrebis xarisxs. msoflioSi ufro meti

yuradReba eqceva adamianis potencialis ganviTarebas an egreT wodebuli

inteleqtualuri potencialis. ukanaskneli xdeba kacobriobis mdgradi

ganviTarebis mTavar faqtorad.

gaeros ganviTarebis programis specialistebis mier ganxorcielebuli

apgi mniSvnelobis gaangariSebebi, uCveneben, rom qveynebis umetesobaSi

misi mniSvneloba ganuxrelad izrdeba. apgi yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli

aRiniSna norvegiaSi (0,963) xolo yvelaze dabali _ siera-leoneSi (0,275

2001w.)

239

mosaxleobis Tavisufali drois statistika

samuSao drois Semcireba da Sesabamisad Tavisufali drois gazrda aris

cxovrebis donis zrdis faqtorebis erT-erTi maCvenebeli. Tavisufali

drois maCvenebeli Sedis statistikuri komisiis mier 1978 wels

SemuSavebul mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis maCvenebelTa sistemaSi.

Tavisufali dro gamoiyeneba kulturuli donis amaRlebaze, bavSvebis

aRzrdaze, adamianis fizikuri Zalebisa da janmrTelobis ganviTarebaze.

drois statistikuri Seswavlis ZiriTadi meTodologiuri sakiTxia

sakiTxi mis struqturaze:

fiziologiuri moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis dro (Zili, kveba,

Tavis movla;

samuSao dro (dro dakavSirebuli samuSaosTan, misi momzadebisa da

gzaze daxarjuli drois CaTvliT);

Tavisufali dro.

saSualo evropelisTvis Zili Seadgens dReRamis drois 33,5%, samuSao _

30,6%.

Tavisufali dro _ socialuri kategoria, romelsac uSualo

damokidebuleba aqvs pirovnebis ganviTarebasTan, da am gagebiT is

sazogadoebis simdidrea. diskusiuri aris Tavisufali drois normis

sakiTxi.

Tavisufali dro klasificirdeba Semdeg jgufebad:

Teatrebis, konos, koncertebis, sportiuli da sxva sanaxaobriv

RonisZiebebze daswreba;

telegadacemebis yureba, radios mosmena;

seirnoba da sporti;

Sexvedrebi, vizitebi, TamaSebi da a.S.;

dasvenebis sxva saxeobebi;

240

socialur-politikuri saqmianoba, mitingebi, krebebi, religiuri

saqmianoba.

Tavisufali drois Seswavlisas didi mniSvneloba aqvs Tavisufali

drois dayofas or nawilad:

sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro da misi wili;

ara sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro da misi wili.

am dros, sasargeblod gamoyenebul droSi SeiZleba gamoiyos aqtiurad

da pasiurad gatarebuli Tavisufali dro, romelic sxvadasvanairad

moqmedebs adamianis janmrTelobis mdgomareobaze.

ara sasargeblod gamoyenebuli dro, _ esaa dro, daxarjuli sxvadasxva

organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis daswrebaze, spirtiani sasmelebis

dalevaze da narkotikebis moxmarebaze, alkoholur da narkotikul

simTvraleSi yofnis dro. am drois gamoyofa da Sedegebis analizi

aqtualuria praqtikulad msoflios yvela qveynisaTvis.

qveynebis mixedviT Tavisufali drois moculoba mkveTrad gansxvavdeba.

is naklebia qveynebSi, sad mosaxleoba gamoirCeva SromismoyvareobiT.

miCiganis universitetis mier Catarebuli saerTaSoriso kvlevebis

SedegebiT naklebi Tavisufali dro aqvT iaponelebs: 14 saaTamde

mamakacebs da 11 saaTamde qalebs. Tavisufali drois yvelaze maRali

maCvenebeli aqvT danielebs: mamakacebis Tavisufali dro kviraSi Seadgens

54 saaTs, qalebis _ 53 saaTs.

Tavisufali drois statistikis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamosxuli iqnes

absolutur monacemebSi (saaTebSi) da SefardebiT monacemebSi

(Tavisufali drois TiToeuli elementis wili Tavisufali drois

saerTo sidideSi).

Tavisufali drois statistikis erT-erTi amocanaa drois struqturis

Sewavla:

mosaxleobis calkeuli socialuri jgufebis;

241

mosaxleobis asakobrivsqesobrivi kategoriebis;

qalaqisa da soflis macxovreblebis;

sxvadasxva teritoriebis macxovreblebis.

sxvadasxva socialuri jgufebis, kacebisa da qalebis, sxvadasxva

teritoriis Tavisufali drois struqturaSi gansxvavebebis

dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo

wrfivi da saSualo kvadratuli koeficientebi.

struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo wrfivi koeficienti = .n

dd ji

struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo kvadratuli koeficienti =

,

2

n

dd ji

sadac id da jd _ drois danaxarjebis wili konkretul saxeobaze

Sesabamisad i -ur (magaliTad, mamakacebSi) da j -ur (qalebSi) jgufebSi.

magaliTi. cxrilSi motanilia monacemebi Tavisufali drois

danaxarjebze.

Tavisufali drois danaxarjebis struqtura

Tavisufali drois

elementebi

Tavisufali

danaxarjebis

drois

struqtura

%

ji dd 2ji dd

kacebi qalebi

Teatrebis, konos

daswreba

2,0 3,4 1,4 1,96

telegadacemebis

yureba

59,6 52,7 6,9 47.61

gazeTebis kiTxva 12.0 8,7 3,3 10,89

Sexvedrebi, vizitebi 12,3 19,3 7,0 49,00

seirnoba da sporti 5,6 5,3 0,3 0,09

242

sva danaxarjebi 8,5 10,6 2,1 4,41

sul 100,0 100,0 21,0 113,96

struqturuli gansxvavebebis saSualo wrfivi da saSualo kvadratuli

koeficientebi iqneba toli:

saSualo wrfivi koeficienti = %;5,36

21

saSualo kvadratuli koeficienti = 6

96,1134,4%

absoluturi struqturuli gansaxvavebebis wrfivma koeficientma uCvena,

rom Tavisufali drois gamoyenebis struqtura kacebsa da qalebs Soris

gansxvavebulia 3,5% -iT.

kvadratuli koeficientma daadastura es gansxvaveba, magram 4,4%-iT.

leqcia 12. statistikuri meTodebi saerTaSoriso modelirebasa da

prognozirebaSi

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. modelirebisa da prognozirebis arsi

etapebi da ZiriTadi principebi

2. statistikuri modelebis klasifikacia

3. statistikuri prognozis klasifikacia

4. modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso

organizaciebi

modelirebisa da prognozirebis arsi,

etapebi da ZiriTadi principebi

statistikuri modelireba da prognozireba warmoadgens statistikuri

mecnierebis dargs. is, statistikuri cnebebis, kategoriebis da meTodebis

gamoyenebis safuZvelze, Seiswavlis masobrivi socialur-ekonomikuri

243

procesebis da movlenebis ganviTarebis ZiriTad kanonzomierebebsa da

tendenciebs warsulSi, awmyoSi da winaswar gansazRvravs maTi momavali

ganviTarebis ZiriTad mimarTulebebs.

statistikuri mecnierebis ZiriTad cnebebsa da kategoriebs miekuTvneba

niSani, variacia, maCvenebeli, statistikuri erToblioba, statistikuri

kanonzomiereba, did ricxvTa kanoni, statistikuri kavSiri.

modelirebasa da prognozirebaSi gamoiyeneba statistikis Semdegi

meTodebi: statistikuri dakvirveba, statistikuri dajgufeba, saSualo

sidideebis meTodi, saindeqso meTodi, korelaciuri da regresiuli

analizis meTodebi da a.S.

modelireba da prognozireba empiriuli da mecnieruli kvlevis

kopleqsur procesia, romelic Sedgeba Semdegi urTierTdakavSirebuli

etapebisagan:

1. modelirebisa da prognozirebis miznis, amocanebis, obieqtis zusti

gansazRvra da dasabuTeba. am etapze ganisazRvreba kvlevis mizani,

ZiriTadi amocanebi da maTi gadawyvetis gzebi, saprognozo obieqtis

zusti gansazRvra da gamoyofa, aseve misi warsuli ganviTarebis zogadi

daxasiaTeba da sxva obieqtebTan urTierTkavSiris dadgena;

2. saWiro informaciuli bazis Seqmna. es etapi iTvaliswinebs kvlevis

obieqtis da masze moqmedi faqtorebis Sesaxeb informaciis miRebas,

dajgufebas da sistematizacias;

3. prognozirebis meTodis SerCeva. mocemul etapze xdeba im

meTodebisa da xexebis SerCeva, romelTa meSveobiT unda ganisazRvros

Sesaswavli obieqtis momavali ganviTarebis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi da

maCveneblebi. prognozis meTodis SerCeva umetesad damokidebulia

arsebul informaciaze;

4. saprognozo modelis ageba da prognozuli maCveneblebis

gaangariSeba. am etapze Sesaswavli obieqtis prognozi Rebulobs

Camoyalibebul saxes im mravalricxovani maCveneblebis gamoTvliT,

romlis mixedviT ganisazrvreba saprognozo obieqtis momavali

cvlilebis konkretuli mdgomareoba. zogierT SemTxvevaSi modelis ageba

244

SeiZleba ar iyos aucilebeli, es dakavSirebulia wina etapze SerCeuli

meTodis saxeobasTan;

5. miRebuli prognozebis Sefaseba. am damamTavrebel etapze xdeba im

pirobebis dadgena, romlisTvisac samaraliani da sworia prognozuli

maCveneblebi da ganisazRvreba prognozebis ganxorcielebis albaToba.

Yprognozirebis yvela etapi erTmaneTTan organul kavSirSia, rac

niSnavs imas, rom yoveli momdevno etapis ganxorcieleba uSualod

dakavSirebulia wina etapze miRebul SedegebTan. romelime samuSaos

Seusrulebloba iwvevs mTlianad prognozirebis mocemuli miznisa da

amocanis ganuxorcieleblobas.

modelirebisa da prognozirebis ZiriTadi principebia:

sistemuroba. socialir-ekonomikuri procesebis da movlenebis

sistemur asaxvas unda axasiaTebdes iseTi Tvisebebi, rogoricaa

mTlianoba, struqtura, ierarqiuloba, funqcionaluroba,

mizanmimarTuleba da marTvadoba;

dakvirvebadoba. dakvirvebad monacemebs unda axasiaTebdes iseTi

aspeqtebi, rogoricaa raodenobrivi, kazualuri, gnoseologiuri,

komunikaciuri, semantikuri da Teoriul-SemecnebiTi;

alternatiuloba. es principi aerTianebs empiriul da

meTodologiur aspeqtebs (prognozis alternatiuli variantebis

raodenoba damokidebulia ara mxolod obieqtis ganviTarebis

xasiaTze, aramed prognozirebis gamoyenebul saxeobaze);

kompleqsuroba. is gulisxmobs saprognozo obieqtis asaxvas,

calkeuli elementebis urTierTkavSirebis, maTi erTmaneTze

urTierTzemoqmedebis da aseve maTi gare pirobebTan urTierTobis

momcveli, gansazRvruli sistemisa da qvesistemebis saxiT. es

principi Sesaswavli procesebis kompleqsur asaxvasTan erTad

iTvaliswinebs konkretuli prognozebis kompleqsis SemuSavebas,

romelic SeiZleba moicavdes calkeul damoukidebel prognozebs.

aseT SemTxvevaSi aigeba rTuli sistemebis momcveli rTuli

prognozuli kompleqsebi.

mecnieruli dasabuTebuloba. praqtikul gamokvlevebSi am principis

realizacia gulisxmobs miRebuli prognozis xarisxis

245

efeqtianobis, sandoobisa da sizustis gansazRvras, e.i. mis

verifikacias.

statistikuri modelebis klasifikacia

modelirebaSi kvlevis procesebis mimarTulebaTa Sesabamisad modelebi

SeiZleba dajgufdes ekonomikur-maTematikur da ekonomikur-statistikur

modelebad

ekonomikur-maTematikuri modelebis gamoyeneba dakavSirebulia

umTavresad funqcionalur damokidebulebaSi myofi movlenebis

modelirebasTan.

ekonomikur-statistikuri modelebi ki gamoiyeneba iseTi raodenobrivi

kanonzomierebis asaxvisas, romlebic vlindeba movlenaTa da procesTa

did masaSi.

statistikuri modelebis arsi ZiriTadad mdgomareobs iseTi modelebis

agebaSi, romelTa safuZvelze Seiswavleba kvlevis obieqtis ganviTareba

da masze moqmedi mravali ZiriTadi da SemTxveviTi faqtoris gavlenis

xasiaTi. kvlevis procesis aseTi mimarTuleba moicavs korelaciur

analizs, ganawilebis kanonebis Seswavlasa da statistikuri cdebis

meTodebs (monte karlos meTodi) da sxv.)

modeli gamoiyeneba agreTve Sesawavli obieqtis Sesaxeb iseTi

monacemebis misaRebad, romlebic SeuZlebelia an sakmaod Znelia miviRoT

uSualo originalis SewavliT. imisaTvis, rom modelma es amocana

Seasrulos, igi unda iyos ara mxolod original-obieqtTan

SesabamisobaSi myofi, aramed misgan gansxvavebulic. originalisgan

modelis gansxvaveba _ modelis aucilebeli, obieqturi niSania.

statistikuri modelebi Tavisi SemecnebiTi funqciebis mixedviT SeiZleba

daiyos Semdeg modelebad:

246

struqturul (statistikuri dakvirveba, TandamTxveva, ganawilebis

mrudebi);

dinamikur (trenduli, cikluri gadaxrebi, zrdis mrudebi,

erTfaqtoriani, mravalfaqtoriani);

urTierTkavSirebis (regresiis gantoleba, regresiis gantolebaTa

sistema, mravalganzomilebiani klasifikacia).

yvela arniSnuli modeli farTod gamoiyeneba socialur-ekonomikuri

movlenebisa da procesebis statistikur modelirebasa da prognozirebis

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi.

statistikuri prognozis klasifikacia

statistikuri prognozi warmoadgens mecnierulad dasabuTebuli

kvlevis konkretul Sedegs, romelSic mocemulia Sesaswavli obieqtis

momavali cvlilebebis dasabuTebuli Sefaseba

statistikuri prognozebi unda akmayofilebdes Semdeg ZiriTad

moTxovnebs:

igi SemuSavebuli unda iyos sakmarisad didi moculobis utyuari,

erTgvarovani da Sesadari informaciis arsebobis pirobebSi;

igi asaxuli unda iyos statsitikuri maCveneblebis saSualebiT;

igi miRebuli unda iyos statistikuri meTodebisa da xerxebis

gamoyenebiT;

misi sizustisa da xarisxis Semowmeba SesaZlebeli unda iyos

statistikuri kriteriumebiT;

igi unda iZleodes kvlevis obieqtis Sesaxeb axal informacias, rac

gaafarToebs misi Semecnebis sazRvrebs;

misi SemuSavebis procesSi SesaZlebeli unda iyos gaangariSebaTa

Catareba Tanamedrove kompiuteruli teqnikis gamoyenebiT.

prognozirebis miznis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

saZiebo. prognozi, romelSic mocemulia Sesaswavli obieqtis

momavali cvlilebis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi;

247

normatiuli. asaxavs kvlevis obieqtis ganviTarebis dasaxuli

miznis (sasurveli donis) miRwevis gzebs, problemebsa da vadebs.

mas sxvanairad miznobriv prognozs uwodeben.

prognozirebis obieqtis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

ekonomikuri;

socialuri;

mecnierul-teqnikuri;

politikuri;

samxedro;

ekologiuri.

garda amisa xSirad muSavdeba, e.w. Sereuli saxis statistikuri

prognozebi, romlebSic aisaxeba gansxvavebuli bunebis obieqtebi. aseTi

prognozebis magaliTia demo-ekonomikuri prognozebi, samxedro-

politikuri prognozebi, geo-ekonomikuri prognozebi, socialur-

demografiuli prognozebi da sxva.

drois mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

operatiuli (ramdenime dRidan erT Tvemde);

moklevadiani (ramdenime Tvidan 2 wlamde);

saSualovadiani (3-dan 8 wlamde);

grZelvadiani (8-dan 20 wlamde);

zevadiani (20 welze zeviT).

teritoriis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

sublokaluri. asaxavs konkretuli movlenis an procesis momavali

ganviTarebis mecnierul Sefaseba SezRuduli masStabis farglebSi

(mosaxleobis ricxovnobis prognozi qveynis calkeuli qalaqebis an

raionebis mixedviT);

lokaluri. es prognozi SedarebiT ufro farToa, vidre

sublokaluri da gulisxmobs sxvadsxva obieqtis prognozs

mTliand qveynis mixedviT;

248

globaluri prognozebi. muSavdeba calkeuli qveynebis an qveynebis

jgufebis mixedviT;

superglobaluri prognozi. moicavs mTel msoflios.

dargebis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

mikroekonomikuri;

dargobrivi;

dargTaSorisi;

makroekonomikuri.

prognozirebis meTodis mixedviT prognozebi SeiZleba iyos:

eqstrapolacia;

eqspertuli Sefaseba;

statistikuri modelireba;

normatiuli;

analogia

prognozis sizustis mixedviT:

arazusti (miuRebeli);

damakmayofilebeli;

zusti;

zezusti.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi, socialuri da ekonomikuri movlenebis

modelirebasa da prognozirebaSi gamoyenebadi statistikuri meTodebis

aucilebloba da maTi gaangariSebis meTodika Cven ganvixileT wina

leqciebze, amjerad SevCerdeT eqspertuli Sefasebebis meTodebze.

eqspertuli Sefasebebis meTodi. P

adamianis gonebas jer kidev Seswevs unari metoqeoba gauwios kompiuters,

da Tu ara azrovnebis siswrafeSi, mravali asociaciuri kavSiris qonaSi

da intuiciuri gadawyvetilebis miRebis SesaZleblobaSi. es iZleva

249

specialistebis codnis, gamocdilebisa da intuiciis evristikuli

gamoyenebiT, informaciis eqspertuli gziT miRebis saSualebas. xolo

eqspertuli gziT miRebuli Sefasebebis specialuri maTematikuri

xerxebiT damuSaveba zrdis maT saimedoobas da sizustes. eqspertuli

Sefasebebi ara imdenad da ara mxolod informaciis miRebis

instrumentia, ramdenadac Rrma analizisa da prognozis iaraRi.

eqspertuli kvlevis arsi mdgomareobs Sesaswavl problemaSi

kompetentur, damoukidebel, specialistTa jgufebis SerCevasa da

formirebaSi. isini gamoTqvamen TavianT SeTanxmebul Sexedulebebs da es

ganixileba rogorc eqpertuli Sefaseba.

eqspertul Sefasebad iwodeba romelime movlenaze da procesze

kompetenturi specialistebis jgufis mier gamoTqmuli Sexedulebebis

saSualo an modaluri daxasiaTeba, maTi Sexedulebebis SeTanxmebis an

daaxloebis uzrunvelyofis pirobiT.

eqspertuli Sefasebebi SeiZleba iyos raodenobrivi (warmoadgendes

absolutur, SefardebiT an saSualo sidideebs) da xarisxobrivi. pirvel

SemTxvevaSi eqspertiza efuZneba statistikuri da ekonometrikuli

meTodebis gamoyenebas, xolo meoreSi _ kvlevis sagnis codnas da

xelovnebasTan miaxloebul gamocdilebasa da intuicias damyarebul

evristikul procedurebs.

ganvixiloT iseTi cnobili eqspertuli meTodebi, rogoricaa delfis

meTodi, gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis) meTodi da sineqtikis meTodi.

`delfis meTodi~ _ saxelwodeba momdinareobs Zveli berZnuli qalaqi

delfosagan, sadac arsebobda misanTa, winaswarmetyvelTa uZvelesi

centri. es meTodi SemuSavebulia aSS-is kvleviTi korporacia `rend~-is

mier. misi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs: dgeba mecnierulad dasabuTebuli

kiTxvarebi, romelsac eqspertTa jgufi avsebs anonimurad. miRebuli

Sefaseba muSavdeba statistikurad. pasuxebis saSualo mniSvneloba

iTvleba eqspertul Sefasebad.

250

miRebul SefasebaTa saimedooba mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli

eqspertebis sworad SerCevaze, maT kvalifikaciaze, erudiciasa da

Sesaswavli sakiTxebis Sesaxeb maT informirebulobaze. eqspertebis mier

sagnis codna da analizuri SesaZleblobebi mowmdeba testirebis gziT.

Sefasebis sizuste, agreTve damokidebulia kvlevis Sedegebis

statistikuri damuSavebis doneze. iqmneba samuSao jgufi, romelic

SeimuSavebs amocanaTa kompleqss (miznebis xis proeqti), romelic

daismeba eqspertebis winaSe, gamoiyeneba logikuri dasabuTebis meTodi,

igeba hipoTezebi kvlevis Sedegebis Sesaxeb. amis safuZvelze muSavdeba

anketa/kiTxvari.

pirvel etapze xdeba eqspertTa warmomadgenlobiTi jgufis formireba.

eqspertTa SemadgenlobaSi SeyavT sxvadasxva profilis specialistebi

dawyebuli viwro specialistebidan da damTavrebuli enciklopedistebiT.

moTxovna erTia: eqsperti unda icnobdes problemas da gaaCndes masze

sakuTari Sexeduleba. eqspertTa raodenoba unda iyos optimaluri.

jgufis gacilebiT didi raodenoba gaaZnelebs monacemebis damuSavebas,

gaaZlierebs azrebis gafantvas da gaadidebs kvlevis Rirebulebas, xolo

eqspertebis zedmetad mcire jgufi adidebs individualur SefasebaTa

gavlenas da SemTxveviTi Secdomebis daSvebis albaTobas. saWiroa,

gonivruli sakmarisobis principis gamoyeneba, romlis Tanaxmadac

eqspertebis raodenobis erTi erTeuliT gadideba (N+1) praqtikulad ar

moaxdens gavlenas eqspertTa kiTxvebze gacemuli pasuxebis dispersiis

meryeobis doneze. kategoriulad agrZalulia eqspertTa SemadgenlobaSi

kvlevis SedegebiT piradad dainteresebuli pirebis Seyvana. es

ewinaaRmdegeba informaciis saimedoobisa da utyuarobis moTxovnebs.

kibernetika amtkicebs, rom eqspertTa ricxvi ar unda iyos gamosakvlevi

problemis ricxvze naklebi. iTvleba rom eqspertTa ricxvi rogorc wesi

SeiZleba varirebdes 15-dan 50-mde.

251

unda iqnes miRebuli eqspertTa kompetenturobis Sefaseba. SemuSavdeba

testi da masze pasuxebis safuZvelze TiToeul eqsperts mieniWeba

kompententurobis qula ).( 1b

eqspertTa kompetenturobis ganzogadebuli daxasiaTeba gamoisaxeba

saSualo sididiT:

B = ,n

bn

i

i

sadac

B _ aris eqspertTa jgufis kompententurobis saSualo bali

(qula);

ib _ i -uri eqspertis kompententurobis bali;

n _ eqspertTa ricxvi jgufSi.

kompententuroba fasdeba Sesaswavli problemis gadawyvetaSi

monawileobis donis an misi codnis kriteriumiT. unda iqnes

SemuSavebuli kompentenciis donis Sesatyvisi baluri Sefasebis skala.

zogjer SemoyavT, eqspertis imijis, samecniero da praqtikis samyaroSi

mis aRialeblobis, dakavebuli Tanamdebobas, samecniero wodebis an

samecniero xarisxis da a.S. Seatyvisi, eqspertis ,,mniSvnelovnobis” rangi.

Cveulebrisamebr, cdiloben rangebis jami miuaxlovon 100-s an 1-s, rac

amartivebs gaangariSebebs.

kompententurobis saSualo donis gasaangariSebeli formula miiRebs

Semdeg saxes:

B = ,

n

i

i

i

n

i

i

R

Rb

sadac iR _ eqspertis ,,mniSvnelovnobis” rangia.

252

damoukidebeli dakvirvebiT miRebuli kompententurobis maCvenebeli,

mizanSewonilia Seudardes sakuTar Tavze TviT eqspertebis mier

gakeTebul Sefasebebs. arsebobs monacemebi, romlebic miuTiTeben

pirdapiri kavSiris arsebobas saeqsperto Sefasebebebis sizustesa da

Sefasebis dones an eqapertTa kompentenciis TviTSefasebas Soris.

zogjer, gamokvlevis organizatorebs, kompententurobis analizis

Sesabamisad, eqspertebis Sexedulebebidan miRebul saSualo Sefasebis

gaangariSebaSi SemoyavT TiToeuli eqspertis ,,wonebi”. Aanu saerTo

Sefaseba aris saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikuli.

eqspertTa jgufis formirebis Semdeg maT eZlevaT davaleba winaswar

momzadebuli anketebis formiT. am dros unda iyos uzrunvelyofili

gamokiTxvis anonimuroba, romelic gamoricxavs eqspertebs Soris pirad

kontaqts.

gamokvlevis pirvel etapze eqspertebma ar unda icodnen erTmaneTis

pasuxebi. eqspertebis pasuxebis mixedviT igeba ganawilebis mwkrivi da

gamoiangariSeba misi ZiriTadi daxasiaTebebi: saSualo, moda, mediana da

kvartili.

rac ufro mcirea meryeoba, miT metia pasuxebis SeTanxmebuloba da,

maSasadame, pasuxebis saimedooba. eqspertebis gamokiTxva anonimuria,

calkeulma eqspertma ar icis, Tu mis garda kidev vin aris CarTuli am

samuSaoSi. aseve ucnobia danarCeni anketebis Sinaarsi. dgindeba pasuxebis

ranJirebuli ganawileba atributuli da raodenobrivi niSnebis mixedviT.

gamoiTvleba pasuxebis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi: saSualo sidideebi,

meryeobis maCveneblebi, mediana, kvartili (pirveli da mesame).

saSualo sidide gaiangariSeba, rogorc yvela Sefasebis jamis Sefardeba

eqspertebis saerTo ricxvTan:

x = ,n

xn

i

i

sadac iX _ i -uri eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebaa;

253

n _ eqspertTa ricxvi, romlebmac gaakeTes Sefaseba.

Tumca im SemTxvevebSi, rodisac SemoyavT kompententurobis rangi (wona),

gmoiyeneba saSualo Sewonili ariTmetikulis formula:

x = .

n

i

i

i

n

i

i

R

Rx

mediana )(Me _ varirebadi niSnis mniSvneloba (eqspertTa pasuxebis),

romelic modis ranJirebuli erTobliobis Sua mniSvnelobaze (mediana

yofs ganawilebis mwkrivs orad):

,21

0

m

m

m

f

Sf

kxMe

sadac 0x aris medianuri intervalis qveda zRvari;

k _ intervalis sidide;

mf _ medianuri intervalis sixSire;

1mS _ medianuris wina intervalebSi dagrovili sixSireebis jami.

mediana ganixileba rogorc eqspertTa jgufuri azri (Sexeduleba)

xolo kvartilSorisi daSoreba warmoadgens eqspertTa Sexedulebebis

SeTanxmebulobis maCvenebels.

kvartili (pirveli da mesame) _ variantebi, romlebic aSorebs marcxena

da marjvena mxridan erTobliobas ¼1/4-s:

;4

1

1

1

1

1

min1

Q

Q

Qm

Sm

kxQ

;4

1

3

3

3

1

min3

Q

Q

Qm

Sm

kxQ

sadac 1Q da 3Q aris Sesabamisad pirveli da mesame kvartili;

min1Qx _ pirveli (zeda) kvartilis intervalis minimaluri zRvari,

romelic gaiangariSeba dagrovili sixSirebis mixedviT;

254

min1Qx _ mesame (qveda) kvartilis intervalis minimaluri zRvari,

romelic gaiangariSeba dagrovili sixSirebis mixedviT;

k _ intervalis sidide;

min1S _ qveda kvarilis momcveli intervalis wina intervalebSi

dagrovili sixSire;

min13S _ igive zeda kvarilisaTvis.

kvartilebis sazRvrebs gareT moxvedrili pasuxebi, rogorc

eqstremaluri, ar miiReba mxedvelobaSi. xolo kvartilSoris manZilSi

moxvedrili pasuxebi iTvleba sakmarisad SeTanxmebulad. Tumca xdeba

maTi SeTanxmebulobis donis Semowmeba. amisaTvis gaiangariSeba pasuxebis

dispersia Semdegi formuliT:

22 x -

2)(x ,

e.i. pasuxebis mniSvnelobis kvadratebis saSualos minus pasuxebidan

saSualos kvadrati:

.

22

2

n

x

n

xii

rac ufro axloa eqspertebis pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis done

nulTan, miT ufro maRalia SeTanxmebuli Sefasebis reprezantatiuloba.

eqspertebis upirates gansjaTa (SexedulebaTa) gamovlenis Semdeg,

tardeba muSaoba maTi Tvalsazrisis dasaaxloveblad.

kvlevis meore etapze yvela eqsperts, romelTa Sefasebebic

kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebSia, acnoben im eqspertTa

Sexedulebebis dasabuTebuli gansxvavebebis mizezebs, romelTa

Sefasebebic gamovida kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebidan.

jgufSi darCenil TiToeul eqsperts eZleva ufleba Secvalos Tavisi

Sefaseba. amis Semdeg mTeli procedura meordeba axlidan, saWiroebis

SemTxvevaSi ramdenjerme, sanam Sefasebebi ar dauaxlovdeba erTmaneTs.

daaxloeba unda gagrZeldes manamde, sanam maTi saSualo saimedod

255

(misaRebad) ar iqneba miCneuli, SexedulebebSi arsebuli gansxvavebebi ki

_ minimumade dayvanili. momdevno turis win anketaSi SeiZleba, calkeuli

specialistis pasuxebis gaTvaliswinebiT, Setanili iqnes zogierTi

cvlileba. praqtikaSi xSirad es procedura tardeba gamartivebulad da

SexedulebaTa mcire gansxvavebis (gafantvis) SemTxvevaSi kmayofildebian

anketirebis erTi turiT.

eqspertis saimedobis donis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

N

nR

sadac n aris mocemuli eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebebis saerTo

ricxvi;

NN _ swor SefasebaTa saerTo ricxvi.

aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi procedura meordeba ramdenjerme, sanam ar

miiRweva pasuxebis iseTi daaxloba, rodesac dispersia Seesatyviseba

mimimalur mniSvnelobas. mxolod amis Semdeg gaiangariSeba saSualo

sidide, romelic iTvleba eqspertul Sefasebad.

`gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis)~ meTodi warmoadgens ufro operatiul da

saimedo meTods. am meTodis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba

kvalificiuri specialistebis SerCeva, Sefasebebi da daskvnebi keTdeba

sxdomis mimdinareobisas. yvela damswre iyofa or jgufad. pirveli

jgufi koncentracias anu generacias ukeTebs ideebsa da Sefasebebs,

xolo meore aanalizebs maT. orive jgufs hyavs saerTo xelmZRvaneli.

ganxilvisas didi yuradReba eqceva azrTa Tavisufali gacvlis

waxalisebas, amasTan, ikrZaleba wamoyenebul ideaTa da daxasiaTebaTa

aqtualobis (faseulobis) mimarT kritikuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma.

xelmZRvaneli unda iyos miukerZoebeli da mas unda SeeZlos diskusiis

warmarTva saWiro mimarTulebiT. rac ufro metia variantebis raodenoba,

miT ufro maRalia im namdvilad Rirebuli ideebisa da daxasiaTebaTa

gamovlenis albaToba, romelzedac daTanxmdeba monawileTa umravlesoba.

256

praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba sineqtikis meTodi (gansxvavebuli da

erTmaneTTan aSkarad Seusabamo elementebis SeerTeba). am dros xdeba

saqmianobis (moRvaweobis) sxvadasxva sferodan specialistebis Sekreba.

calkeuli monawile TaTbirs aRiqvams rogorc Sejibrebas da

gansaxilvelad Seaqvs winaswar momzadebuli idea. miiReba is realuri

idea, romelsac mxars dauWers monawileTa umravlesoba.

modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso

organizaciebi

amJamad msoflioSi aTze meti modelirebisa da prognozirebis

saerTaSoriso organizacia funqcionirebs.

saerTaSoriso organizacia ,,futuribli”, daarsda 1960 wels

safrangeTSi, Stab-bina mdebareobs parizSi. gaaCnia mZlavri sainformacio

centri informaciuli banki _ 60 aTasamde baraTi, samecniero biblioTeka

_ 5 aTasi tomi). sakuTari ZalebiT amuSavebs sxvadsxva saxeobis

prognozebs, gamodis Suamavlis rolSi prognozirebis organizaciis

saqmeSi, asrulebs sakonsultacio firmis funqciebs, axorcielebs

specialistTa momzadebas da gadamzadebs, informaciis gacvlas

prognozirebis sxvadsxva kvleviT centrebs Soris. yovelTviurad

gamodis asociaciis Jurnali ,,futuribli-2000”, da yovel or TveSi

erTxel _ biuleteni ,,futurinformasioni”. am oganizaciis wevria 60-mde

qveyana da maTgan 6000 moqalaqe.

saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba ,,momavlis msoflio”. daarsda 1966 wels

voSingtonSi, masSi gaerTianebulia sxvadasxva qveynis 250-mde koleqtiuri

da 65 individualuri wevri, aqvs Tavisi ganyofilebebi aSS-is yvela

StatSi da agreTve msoflios 25-mde qveyanaSi. gaaCnia msxvili

sainformacio centri da mravali funqcionaluri seqcia, kerZod:

biznesis, ganaTlebis, mecnierebisa da teqnikis, marTvis, janmrTelobis

dacvis, socialuri, transportisa da kavSirgabmulobis, serTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa, demografiis, Sromis, saTbob-energetikuli da

sanedleulo resursebis, cxovrebis wesis, kvebis, perspeqtiuli

257

problemebis. sazogadoeba sakuTari ZalebiT amuSavebs sxvadasxva

saxeobis prognozebs, asrulebs Suamavlis rols prognozebis

damuSavebaze SekveTebis miRebaSi, axorcielebs kadrebis momzadebas da

gadamzadebas, asrulebs prognozirebis sakiTxebze sakonsultacio

firmis funqciebs, axorcielebs prognozuli informaciis gacvlas, or

TveSi erTxel gamoscems Jurnals ,,futuristi” da biuletens, garda

amisa, yoveli seqcia calke uSvebs biuletens.

saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba ,,2000 wlis kacobrioba” daarsda 1966

wels, misi Stab-bina mdebareobs briuselSi, yovelwliurad gamodis

,,msoflio problemebisa da kacobriobis potencialis weliwdleuli”.

modelirebisa da prognozirebis saerTaSoriso organizacia ,,romis

klubi” Seiqmna 1966 wels cnobili italieli mwerlisa da sazogado

moRvawis a. peCeis iniciativiT. misi wevria 40-mde qveyana, saqmianobis

ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa kacobriobis winaSe mdgomi globaluri

problemebis kvleva. 1972 wels gamoica romis klubis pirveli moxseneba

,,zrdis sazRvrebi”, romelic moamzada mkvlevarTa jgufma d. medouzis

xelmZRvanelobiT. am wignSi ganxilulma sakiTxebma da daskvnebma

sensacia gamoiwvia mTels msoflioSi. misi mTavari daskvna iyo

kacobriobis globaluri katastrofis gardauvaloba XXI saukunis Sua

xanebSi, kvlevis Sedegebi miRebuli iqna mravali sxvadasxva monacemebis

safuZvelze. sazogadoeba yovelwliurad atarebs konfernciebs da

seminarebs.

saerTaSoriso sociologiuri asociaciis momavlis kvlevis komiteti,

romelic Seiqmna 1970 wels, Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi da misi

saqmianoba ZiriTadad mimarTulia socialuri problemebis kvlevebze.

mecnierul-teqnikuri progresis Sedegebis Sedarebis saerTaSoriso

sazogadoeba Seiqmna 1972 wels, misi Stab-bina mdebareobs voSingtonSi.

igi yovelwliurad atarebs saerTaSoriso konfernciebs, sadac

ganixileba mecnierebisa da teqnikis ganviTarebis socialuri,

258

ekonomikuri, ekologiuri da sxva Sedegebi da xorcieldeba maTi

perspeqtiuli Sefaseba.

momavlis Seswavlis msoflio federacia, romelic Seiqmna 1970 wels

italiaSi, Stab-bina mdebareobs romSi. misi wevria 60-mde qveyana. igi

periodulad aqveynebs specialur biuletenebs.