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Analele Universit ii Constantin Brncui din Trgu Jiu, Seria Economie, Nr. 1/2009

Annals of the Constantin Brncui University of Trgu Jiu, Economy Series, Issue 1/2009

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PERSPECTIVE PRIVIND INTEGRAREA

MONETAR EST-ASIATIC

Masini Fabio*Departamentul de instituii publice, tiineeconomice i societate, Universitatea din

Roma

Rezumat

Mrirea inter-dependenei de comer din rileasiatice sugereaz un ndemn de a schia aranjamentemonetare pentru a stabiliza cadrul macroeconomic alunei zone crescnde extrem de eterogen.

Documentul corecteaz literatura i analizeazmai multe direcii ale procesului de integrare est-asiatic, mai ales n relaie cu modelul european.Argumentm c un scenariu mondial economici politicmai cuprinztor ar trebui considerat iar o abordarepolitic rapid ar trebui implementat n zon.

n jurul rolului central al Chinei, un acord largar trebui atins pentru valuta unic asiatic care arputea fi emis rapidi care ar putea asigura o int dereferin pentru celelalteri est-asiatice.

Clasificarea JEL: F33, F59

Cuvinte cheie: comert, tari asiatice, process de integrareest-asiatic, model european, valuta unica asiatica.

Asia are nevoie de moneda comun?Rspunsul depinde de alternativa existent.Dac alternativa este sistemul prezent, atuncirspunsul meu este da, Asia are nevoie de

monde comun. Sistemul prezent aredefecte serioase. Dac, totui, alternativa estevaluta global, care cred c ar fi cea mai bunsoluie, atunci rspunsul meu este c Asia nuare nevoie de o monde comun separat.

(Mundell, 2002: 9)

1. INTRODUCERELiteratura economic din scenariile

viitoare privind sistemul monetar internaionaleste n clocot din nou. La fel ca n alte di, se

acord foarte mult atenie posibilelor

PERSPECTIVES ON EAST-ASIAN

MONETARY INTEGRATION

Fabio Masini*Department of Public Institutions, Economics

and Society, University of Rome

Abstract

Increasing trade interdependence among East-Asiancountries suggests the urge to design some monetaryarrangement to stabilize the macroeconomicframework of an extremely heterogeneously growing

area.The paper reviews the literature and analyses severaldirections of East-Asian integration process,especially in relation to the European model. Weargue that a more comprehensive economic andpolitical world-scenario should be considered and amulti-speed policy approach should be implemented inthe area.Around the pivotal role of China, a wide agreementshould be reached for an Asian single-currency, whichmight be rapidly issued and provide a reference targetfor other East-Asian countries.

JEL classification: F33, F59

Key words: trade, East-Asian countries, East-Asianintegration process, European model, Asian single-currency.

Does Asia need a common currency?The answer depends on what the alternativeto it is. If the alternative is the present systemthen my answer is yes, Asia needs acommon currency. The present system hasserious flaws. If, however, the alternative to itis a global currency, which I think would bethe best solution, then my answer is Asiadoes not need a separate common currency.

(Mundell, 2002: 9)

1. INTRODUCTIONThe economic literature on the future

scenarios concerning the internationalmonetary system is in ferment again. Like a

few other times in the past, a paramount


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aranjamente monetare inovative dinurmtoarele decenii pentru a ntlni provocriglobale pe care le mrturisim acum: crizefinanciare periodice cu mecanisme de

transmisie mondiale impresionante; oschimbare dramatic n balana planetar geo-politic i n puterea economic; sfritulhegemoniei dolarului i creterea euro i avalutei majore ca active de rezerv pentrutranzacii de comer. Acestea sunt doar ctevadintre chestiunile principale care provoac ocerere n cretere pentru o nou arhitecturmonetari financiar n lume.

Mult dup ce ultima criz global aizbucnit n Septembrie, producia tiinific

privind acest subiect a reacionat puternic,demonstrnd o promptitudine neobinuit de aaborda acest ndemn. Dezbaterea are doudirecii principale. Prima privete coninutul icadrul unui sistem monetar global, relaiadintre valuta major de referin i eventualaint a valutei majore globale. A doua privetearanjamentele specifice care pot fiimplementate pentru a sprijini, pe termenscurt, un management lin al tranziiei la o nouordine global monetar i financiar, dei

citatul din Mundell ne amintete c cele douniveluri nu pot fi considerate complet separat.

Acest document analizeaz doar undomeniu al celui de-al doilea aspect, adic

perspectivele integrrii monetare est-asiatice.Vom considera literatura recent i vomcerceta dac un asemenea proces de integrare

poate fi modelat pe experiena european. Deicei mai muli autori par a fi prudeni nlegtur cu acest lucru, noi credem c unii paiai experimentului european pot fi nc destulde folositori n formarea integrrii monetare nAsia de Est.

Pentru c acest document se vrea a fi iunul politic, argumentm c modul luiMundell de a confrunta integrarea monetarregional cu integrarea monetar globalteoretic corect dar, strategic, dezastruos. Noicredem, dimpotriv, c doar un proces deintegrare rapid n masele regionale alelumii ar putea duce la un nou sistem monetar

internaional stabil ntr-un viitor raional

attention is being given to the possibleinnovative monetary arrangements of the nextdecades to meet the global challenges we arenow witnessing: recurrent financial crises,

with impressive transmission mechanismsworldwide; a dramatic change in theplanetary geo-political balance of politicaland economic power; the end of the dollarhegemony and the rise of the euro and othermajor currencies as reserve assets and fortrade transactions. These are just some of themain questions which today induce anincreasing demand for a new monetary andfinancial architecture in the world.

Long before the last global crisis burst

out in September 2008, the scientificproduction on this topic has strongly reacted,showing an unusual promptness to tacklewith this urge. The debate has taken two maindirections. The first concerns the contents andframework of a global monetary system, therelationship among the major referencecurrencies and the eventual target of a globalcommon currency. The second is on thespecific arrangements that can beimplemented to assist, in the shorter run, a

smooth management of the transition to anew global monetary and financial order,although the quotation from Mundell remindsus how the two levels cannot be completelyconsidered apart.

This paper analyses only a field of thislatter aspect, namely the perspectives of East-Asian monetary integration. We will considerthe recent literature and enquire into thespecific question whether such integration

process should be modelled on the Europeanexperience. Although most Authors seem to

be cautious on that, we believe that somesteps of the European experiment may still bequite useful in guiding monetary integrationin East-Asia.

As this is intended also as a policy paper,we argue that Mundells way of confrontingregional monetary integration versusglobal monetary integration is ideallycorrect but strategically disastrous. We

believe, on the contrary, that only a rapid


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(Keynes ar spune: nainte de a fi mori cutoii!). n aceast privin, un proces deintegrare rapid ar putea reprezenta cea mai

bun strategie de a aborda probleme dificile i

nevoia urgent de a consolida progresul spre ointegrare mai mare n lume.Pentru a demonstra acest lucru, vom

aminti principalele elemente care au cluzitdiscuia recent i mai departe vom reflectaasupra avantajelor i dezavantajelor folosiriiaspectelor specifice modelului european

pentru a facilita integrarea n rile est-asiatice.Cteva remarci concludente vor fi n final

precedate de o reflecie asupra relaiei dintreintegrarea monetar regional i global.

2. INTEGRAREA MONETARASIATIC NAPOI N CENTRULATENIEI: N CE ZONE?

n 1992, un document interesant deManoranjan Dutta, Regionalizarea economicn Europa de Est: Economiile asiatice-Pacifice(Baza macroeconomic: optimizareamicroeconomic), publicat n Revistaeconomic american, sublinia faptul c douvaluri de interes din literatura economic i

diplomaia internaional au consideratoportunitatea de a reproduce procesul deintegrare european n unele ri asiatice.

Primul val a fost chiar naintea i ntimpul anilor 70, care au observat un interescrescnd din partea Japoniei i Statelor Unitede a facilita integrarea n zona de est; al doileaa fost n anii 80, dup mitingul Canberra din1980, la care s-a stabilit Conferina deCooperare Economic Pacific.

Recent, dup criza financiari valutarcare a lovit majoritatea economiilor asiatice lasfritul ultimului mileniu, fondarea n Europaa unei monede unice i creterea specular aChinei i a Indiei , s-a ridicat un interesrennoit fa de procesele de integrare n Asia(Whyplosz 2001; Mundell 2002; Eichengreen2003). n ultimii patru ani, o dezbateretiinific deosebit de intens n legtur cu unasemenea subiect a avut loc n cteva jurnaleinternaionale autoritare de tiine economice.

n dezbaterile n legtur cu procesele de

integration process in regional aggregationsin the world may lead to a new stableinternational monetary system in a reasonablefuture (Keynes would say: before we are all

dead!). In this respect, a multi-speedintegration process may represent the beststrategy to tackle both with difficult mattersand with the urgent need to consolidate the

progress towards greater integration in theworld.

In order to show this, we will recall themain elements that have guided the recentdiscussion and further reflect on the pros andcons of the use of specific aspects of theEuropean model to foster greater integration

in the East-Asian countries. Some concludingremarks will be finally preceded by areflection on the relationship betweenregional and global monetary integration.

2. Asian Monetary Integration back to theStage: which Areas?

In 1992 an interesting paper byManoranjan Dutta, Economic Regionalizationin Western Europe: Asia-Pacific Economies(Macroeconomic Core: Microeconomic

Optimization), published in The AmericanEconomic Review, pointed out that twowaves of interest in both the economicliterature and international diplomacy hadconsidered the opportunity to replicate theEuropean integration process in some Asiancountries.

The first wave was just before and duringthe Seventies, which saw an increasinginterest from Japan and the United States tofoster integration in the eastern area; thesecond in the Eighties, after the 1980Canberra meeting where the PacificEconomic Cooperation Conference wasestablished.

Recently, after the financial and currencycrises that hit most Asian economies at theend of last millennium, the foundation inEurope of the single currency and thespectacular rise of China and India, arenewed interest towards integration

processes in Asia has grown (Whyplosz


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integrare asiatic, dou chestiuni principaleerau n centrul ateniei n urm cu mai puin dedou decenii: prima era c un asemenea procesera menit n special s priveasc acorduri de

comer; a doua era c aproape toatepropunerile includeau Statele Unite. n zilelenoastre, interdependena de comer dintrestatele asiatice este o dovad consolidatistoric iar dezbaterea se concentreaz penevoia de a sprijini o asemeneainterdependen economic pe parte real cuun aranjament monetar rezonabil intind lanetezirea volatilitii ratelor de schimb i iminimizeaz repercusiunile asupra debitelorde comer.

n al doilea rnd, pn de curnd, uniiautori (Mundell 2002; Tae-Joon, Jai-Won,Shinji 2005) considerau ca fiind o nevoie de

baz punerea la socoteal (dac nu camembre) a Statelor Unite ca autoritatemonetar deschiztoare de drumuri n zon.Doar n ultimii ani s-a dat complet la o parte oasemenea ipotez. Astzi, problema privindStatele Unite este dac i ct de repede artrebui rile asiatice, mai ales China, s-inlocuiasc (aproape exclusiv) moneda cu

dolarul US (Furstenberg 2008: 43; Kawai2008).

Decizia Japoniei de a propune oficialcrearea unui Fond Monetar Asiatic pentru a

provoca strategia Consensului de laWashington ( prin IMF) n 1997 (Lipscy 2003;Amyx 2002), a fost semnalul unei viitoareschimbri radicale de atitudine fa deintegrarea asiatic (Wook 2006). De curnd.Propunerea i-a gsit noi susintori i estediscutat acum amnunit.

Ct despre problema demarcriiteritorial-politice pentru un acord al ratelor deschimb i un proces de integrare monetar,este evident c clasicele teorii ale Zonelor deValut Optim (OCA) (Mundell 1961;McKinnon 1963; Kenen 1969), sunt ncfoarte folosite (De Grauwe, Zhang 2006).Muli autori nc pretind c pot diminuacosturile uniunii de valut printr-un proces deoptimizare pentru a seleciona sistemele

economice naionale care corespund mai

2001; Mundell 2002; Eichengreen 2003). Inthe last four years, a particularly vividscientific debate on such a topic has taken

place on some authoritative international

journals of economics.In the debates on Asian integrationprocesses two main questions were on thestage until less than two decades ago: the firstwas that such process was mainly meant toconcern trade agreements; the second thatalmost all proposals included the UnitedStates. Nowadays, trade interdependenceamong Asian states is a historicallyconsolidated evidence and the debate isconcentrating on the need to assist such real-

side economic interdependence with a soundmonetary arrangement aimed at smoothingexchange rates volatility and minimize itsrepercussion on trade flows.

On the second point, until very recentlysome Authors (Mundell 2002; Tae-Joon, Jai-Won, Shinji 2005) considered as a basic needto take into account (if not explicitly asmembers) the United States as path-makingmonetary authority in the area. Only in thelast few years such a hypothesis has been

completely put aside. Today, the questionconcerning the United States is whether andhow urgently Asian countries, China in

particular, should abandon their (almostexclusive) peg with the US dollar(Furstenberg 2008: 43; Kawai 2008).

The decision by Japan to officiallypropose the creation of an Asian MonetaryFund to challenge the Washington Consensusstrategy (through the IMF) in 1997 (Lipscy2003; Amyx 2002), was the signal of aforthcoming radical change of attitudetowards Asian integration (Wook 2006).Recently, the proposal found new supportersand is now being widely discussed.

As to the question of the territorial-political demarcation for an exchange-ratesagreement and a monetary integration

process, it is evident how the classicalOptimum Currency Areas (OCA) theories(Mundell 1961; McKinnon 1963; Kenen

1969), are still very much used (De Grauwe,


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multor criterii OCA, inclusiv sincronizareaciclurilor de afaceri (Parsons, Sato 2006; Sato,Zhang 2006; Shirono 2007).

Dar este evident i faptul c proximitatea

geografic i consideraiile politice suntprevalente. De exemplu, un proces interesantare loc printre rile arabe din Golf, undestatele membre ale Consiliului de Cooperare alGolfului (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,Arabia Saudit i Emiratele Arabe Unite)ncearc s se pun de acord asupra termenilori programului unei piee comune i uneiuniuni monetare comune (Al-Mansouri,Dziobek 2006). Interdependena economic acrescut n acea zon, prin comerul intern,

tranzacii financiare i investiii directe,ducnd la o urmrire din ce n ce mai atent astabilitii monetare, mai ales n pieele devalut. Aceast zon pare s fie mult nainte n

procesul de integrare, dar nu este consideratn literatur. De asemenea, n rile fosteiUniuni Sovietice exist semne de tentative deintegrare monetar (Gulde et al. 2004;Chaplygin et al. 2006).

Alte propuneri privesc rile InsuleiPacifice (Browne, Orsmond 2006), unde

economiile mici, deschise par s ntlneasccriteriile lui McKinnon (francheeacomerului), dar distana geografic reducerolul efectiv al lui Mundell iar monoculturilelupt clar mpotriva capacitii de a diminuaimpactul ocurilor asimetrice (Criteriul luiKenen). Mai mult dect att, pentru acest grupde ri, Beeson (2006) consider aceastsoluie nvechit din punct de vedere politic, nfavoarea alteia, care privete un grup mai largnumit rile est-asiatice, ca un motor alintegrrii viitoare.

Cea mai probabil zon de integrare dinAsia pare a fi aa-numita ASEAN+3 careinclude participarea rilor la Asociaia

Naiunilor Asiatice de Sud-Est (ASEAN:Brunei, Cambodgia, Indonezia, Laos,Malaezia, Myanmar, Filipine, Singapore,Thailanda i Vietnam) plus China, Japonia iCoreea (Kawai 2008). Aceasta a fost i bazateritorial pe care a fost pus binecunoscuta

Iniiativ Chiang Mai (mai 2000) pentru

Zhang 2006). Many Authors still pretend theycan minimize currency union costs throughan optimisation process to single out thenational economic systems that most match

the several OCA criteria, included businesscycles synchronization (Parsons, Sato 2006;Sato, Zhang 2006; Shirono 2007).

But it is also evident how politicalconsiderations and geographic proximity are

prevalent. For example, an interesting processis taking place among the Arab countries ofthe Gulf, where the member states of the GulfCooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait,Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UnitedArab Emirates) are trying to agree on the

terms and schedule for a common market anda monetary union (Al-Mansouri, Dziobek2006). Economic interdependence hasincreased in that area, through internal trade,financial transactions and direct investments,leading to a greater and greater quest formonetary stability, especially in thecurrencies market. This area seems to be farahead in the integration process but is notvery much considered in the literature. Alsoin the former Soviet Union countries there are

signs of attempts towards monetaryintegration (Gulde et al. 2004; Chaplygin etal. 2006).

Other proposals concern Pacific Islandcountries (Browne, Orsmond 2006), wheresmall, open economies seem to meetMcKinnons criteria (trade openness), but thegeographical distance shrinks the effectiverole of Mundells ones and monoculturesdefinitely run against the capacity tominimize the impact of asymmetric shocks(Kenens criterion). Furthermore, for thisgroup of countries, Beeson (2006) considersthis solution politically outdated, in favour ofa second one, which regards a wider groupnamed East-Asian countries as the engineof future integration.

The most likely integration area in Asiaseems to be the so-called ASEAN+3 whichincludes the countries participating in theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,


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metoda de prevenire bilateral de rezerv(Eichengreen 2003) i care a ajuns de curnd(mai 2007) la un acord asupra unei schememulti-laterale de schimb de moned pentru a

face fa crizei financiare. Unele variaii aleacestei forme includ Australia, India, NouaZeelandi Taiwan (Gudmundsson 2008), pecnd altele prefer s se concentreze pe aa-zisa Mare Chin, i.e. China, Hong King,Taiwan (Cheung, Yuen 2005) sau pe multealte combinaii (Shirono 2007). Este clar astzic extraordinara cretere a Indiei, alturi deChina, din ultimii ani este menit s schimbe

perspectivele integrrii dar nimeni nu pareacum a fi capabil s prezic ce direcie va lua.

Ceea ce pare a fi evident este faptul corice ncercare de a apsa acceleratorulintegrrii regionale n Asia cere delimitricare necesit mai degrab mai multeconsideraii politice de scenariu, dectrespectarea criteriilor teoriilor OCA. Frndoial, mai muli autori (Yetman 2007;Gudmundsson 2008) pare s fi luat lacunotin concluziile lui Frankel i Rose(1998) privind endogenitatea criteriilorzonelor de valut optim; din moment ce se

stabilete o uniune monetar, chiar iautomat, mecanismele de pia ncep sopereze, ceea ce faciliteaz ndeplinireadiverselor criterii propuse pentru a testaeficiena zonei.

Aceasta ne aduce la problema graduluide angajament politic necesar pentru a ncepeun proces de integrare monetari se d gradulde densitate instituional.

3. INTEGRAREA MONETARNTRE PIEE I INSTITUII

Exist vreo nevoie de (i ce fel de)mecanism pentru a guverna procesele deintegrare supra-naionale? Ar trebui s fie doarforele pieei sau vreun fel de cadrulinstituional formalizat? Ar trebui ca aspectelepozitive i negative ale integrrii s fiemn n mn sau este timpul pentru o aciune

public mai radical n lumea noastr?n cadrul acestui domeniu de ntrebri,

Mundel (2002) i Eichengreen (2006) au

Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) plusChina, Japan and Korea (Kawai 2008). Thiswas also the territorial basis on which the

well known Chiang Mai Initiative (may 2000)was put forward for bilateral reserve pooling(Eichengreen 2003) and which has recently(may 2007) reached an agreement on a multi-lateral currency-swap scheme to facefinancial crises. Some variations of this

pattern include Australia, India, New Zeelandand Taiwan (Gudmundsson 2008), whereasothers prefer to concentrate on the so calledGreater China, i.e. China, Hong Kong,Taiwan (Cheung, Yuen 2005) or on several

other combinations (Shirono 2007). It is cleartoday that the extraordinary growth of India,together with China, in the last few years is

bound to change the integration perspectivesbut nobody seems now to be able to predictthe direction it will take.

What seems to be evident is that anyattempt to push on the accelerator ofregional integration in Asia requiresdelimitations that need more political-scenario considerations rather than

compliance with the OCA theories criteria.Indeed, several Authors (Yetman 2007;Gudmundsson 2008) seem to be well awareof the conclusions by Frankel and Rose(1998) about the endogeneity of optimumcurrency areas criteria: once a monetaryunion is established, even automatic, marketmechanisms start operating which ease thefulfilment of the various criteria proposed totest the efficiency of the area.

This brings to the question of the degreeof political commitment necessary to start amonetary integration process and the degreeof institutional thickness it is given.

3. Monetary integration between marketsand institutions

Is there any need for a (and what kind of)mechanism to govern supra-nationalintegration processes? Should it be the marketforces alone or some kind of formalized

institutional framework? Should positive


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sugerat n mod autoritar o abordare paralel amonedei la integrarea monetar asiatic. Eiargumenteaz mpotriva unei monede unice in favoarea unei monede comune care ar trebui

s fie emis mpreun cu cele naionale pentrua facilita comerul nuntrul i n afara zonei.Aadra, ar trebui s fie de folos un scop cudou faete. Prima este intern, i.e. pentru areduce costurile de tranzacie i, poate,volatilitatea perspectivelor ratelor de schimb.A doua este de a aciona ca o moned dereferin pentru o zon regional ntr-un sistemmonetar mondial multi-polar.

Abordarea monedei paralele este tipic oabordare orientat de pia spre integrarea

monetar. Dar pot fi considerate multe tipuride monede paralele. O versiune extrem a eieste competiia monedei, unde se cere oaciune public doar la nceput pentru a emiteo nou moned care este apoi lsat sconcureze liber cu cele existente pe pia i,

poate, s-i mreasc recursul prin preferineleagenilor (Vaubel 1984a; b). Totui, i n acestcaz, emiterea i controlarea acestei cantiti de

bani n plus este atribuit unui Fond Monetar(Agarwala 2003: 3), cernd astfel un fel de

angajament instituional al rilor participante.Unii autori au argumentat n favoarea

unei versiuni co a monedei paralele pentruAsia (Agarwala 2003; Kawasaki, Ogawa2006) unde este considerat doar ca semnmonetar de referin alctuit din monedeleexistente. Dar chiari soluia co este deschismai multor dispozitive (Chow et al. 2007: 30ff). Exist dou variante posibile. Prima esteun peg comun spre un co extern, posibil bazat

pe o medie ponderat a unor monedeinternaionale de vrf (Furstenberg 2008). Dar,dup cum subliniaz Gudmundsson (2008),aceasta ar nsemna renunarea laresponsabilitatea final a politicii monetare,dup cum s-ar decide prin fixarea monedelor.Mai mult dect att, pegul ar putea nsemna

pentru monedele externe c tranzaciile nmonede interne ca i n paralela comun ar

putea fi descurajate (Eichengreen 2006: 435),periclitnd ntregul proiect de integrare.

Soluia alternativ este una intern, unde

and negative aspects of integration walkhand in hand or is it time for a more radical

public action in our present world?Within this domain of questions, Mundell

(2002) and Eichengreen (2006) haveauthoritatively suggested a parallel currencyapproach to Asian monetary integration. Theyargue against a single currency and in favourof a common currency that should be issuedalong the national ones to ease trade withinand outside the area. It should therefore servea twofold purpose. The first is internal, i.e. toreduce transaction costs and possibly thevolatility of exchange rate expectations. Thesecond is to act as a reference currency for

the regional area in a multi-polar worldmonetary system.

The parallel currency approach istypically a market-oriented approach tomonetary integration. But many differentkinds of parallel currencies may beenvisaged. An extreme version of it iscurrency competition, where a public actionis required only at the start to issue a newcurrency which is then left to freely competewith the existing ones in the market and

possibly increase its appeal through agentspreferences (Vaubel 1984a; b). Also in thiscase, however, the issuance and control overthe quantity of this new additional money isto be attributed to some Monetary Fund(Agarwala 2003: 3), thus requiring some kindof institutional commitment from the

participating countries.Some Authors have argued in favour of a

basket version of the parallel currency forAsia (Agarwala 2003; Kawasaki, Ogawa2006) where it is considered only as areference-monetary-sign composed ofexisting currencies. But even the basketsolution is open to many different devices(Chow et al. 2007: 30 ff). There are two main

possible choices. The first is a common pegtowards an external basket, possibly based ona weighted average of some leadinginternational currencies (Furstenberg 2008).But as Gudmundsson (2008) underlines, this

would mean to give up the final responsibility


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coul este fcut din cote ncrcate alemonedelor participante. Dar aceast soluieridic problema neobinuit n-1 care cere ostabilitate hegemonic sau un angajament

puternic fa de coordonarea politiciimonetare. Aceasta a fost i soluia adoptat desistemul monetar european (EMS), unde rolulhegemonic era jucat de Germania.

Un articol seminal scris de Kuroda(2004) a ncercat de fapt s stabileasc o hartde cinci pai spre uniune monetar n Asia deEst bazat pe schema Balassa (1961) pentruintegrarea economic i pe experienaeuropean. n primul rnd, ar trebui creat ozon de comer, apoi transformat ntr-o

uniune particularizati apoi ntr-o pia unicpentru furnizri de producie i bunuri finale.ntre timp, un acord al monedei ar putea ssusin suficient fiecare transformare i n finals cedeze unei uniuni monetare.

Evident, aceasta este o hart tipiceuropean spre integrarea monetar. Dar uniicomentatori subliniaz nevoia de a solicita maidegrab deosebirile dect asemnrile dintrecele dou procese i regiuni (Ocampo 2004).

Ne ndoim c, n prezent sau pe termen

scurt, un rol hegemonic de panoramareasiatic ar putea iei la iveal sau ar putea fiatribuit oricrei monede est-asiatice existente.

Nici yenul, nici yuanul, nu au credibilitateaunui stadiu hegemonic vast n zilele noastre,dei din motive diferite. Nicio soluie cointern, cum ar fi EMS, nu pare aadar viabildac se consider soluia ASEAN+3.

Dar aceasta nu este singura deosebirefa de cazul european. Cea mai importanteste c alegerea dispozitivului de integraremonetar depinde n mod crucial de intafinal. rile est-asiatice, din orice grup, nu ausuferit nici un angajament politic pentru aconstrui un sistem instituional super-naional

pentru a garanta pacea, aa cum s-a ntmplatn Europa dup cel de-al doilea rzboi mondial(De Grauwe, Zhang 2006: 1646). i aproapenici un aranjament instituional nu a fost

pregtit s dea legitimitate democraticprocesului n curs de desfurare de integrare a

comerului. inta final a proceselor de

of monetary policy, as this would be decidedby the anchoring currencies. Furthermore, thepeg to external currencies might mean thattransactions in internal currencies as well as

in the common parallel one might bediscouraged (Eichengreen 2006: 435),jeopardizing the whole integration project.

The alternative solution is an internalone, where the basket is made of weightedquotas of participating currencies. But thissolution poses the usual n-1 problem whichrequires a hegemonic stability or a strongcommitment to monetary policy coordination.This was also the solution adopted by theEuropean monetary system (EMS), where the

hegemonic role was played by Germany.A seminal article by Kuroda (2004) has

in fact attempted to set a five-steps road-mapto monetary union in East-Asia, based on theBalassa (1961) scheme for economicintegration and on the European experience.First a free trade area should be created, laterevolving into a custom union and then asingle market for production inputs and finalgoods. In the meanwhile a currencyagreement could reasonably support such

transformation and finally give way to amonetary union.

This is obviously a typically Europeanroad-map to monetary integration. But somecommentators underline the need to stress thedifferences rather than the similarities of thetwo processes and regions (Ocampo 2004).

We doubt that, at present or in the shortrun, a pan-Asian hegemonic role mayemerge or be attributed to any of the existingEast-Asian currencies. Neither the yen northe yuan, although for completely differentreasons, have the credibility of a widehegemonic status today. No internal basketsolution like the EMS seems therefore viableif the ASEAN+3 solution is considered.

But this is not the only difference withthe European case. The major point is that thechoice of the monetary integration devicecrucially depends on the final target. East-Asian countries, whatever group is

considered, have not undergone any of the


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integrare non-european este necunoscut, maiales n Asia.

n lipsa unui obiectiv politic specific,doar scopurile economice intermediare pot fi

atinse, cum ar fi netezirea ciclului de afaceridomestice, rspunsuri coordonate mai bune laocuri asimetrice, specializri de munc mainalte i rate mai mari de cretere cu goluriminore printre partenerii comerciali.

n aceast privin, este n mod evidentneclar dac rile ar trebui s angajeze vreunregim rigid de rat de schimb, fie el i cu unmecanism band cum ar fi ERM(Mecanismul ratei de schimb) al Sistemuluimonetar european. Gudmundsson (2008: 81),

de exemplu, subliniaz c, n aceast perioaddeosebit de cretere nalt i divergent aratelor din zon, ratele flexibile de schimb ar

putea fi necesare pentru a accelera ciclurile deafaceri nesincronizate i, aadar, pentru a

pregti cel mai bine condiiile angajamentelorsubsecvente pentru o uniune (vezi i PadoaSchioppa 2004: 318). n loc s stabilizezeratele de schimb, rile asiatice sunt invitate, naceast privin, s promoveze o integrare maimare a pieelor financiare cu scopul de a

absorbi efectele negative ale volatilitii ratelorde schimb prin comer. Orice grup ar trebuifondat potrivit pentru integrarea monetar,diferenele dintre proporiile economice ifinanciare ale rilor participante par ssugereze, din acest punct de vedere, c ar fitrebuit s evite s caute stabilizarea ratelor deschimb. Mai mult dect att, dup cumobserv i Cohen (2007), comportamentulratelor de schimb poate fi considerat maidegrab rezultatul unei relaii politice dintreri, dect un instrument efectiv al politicii.

Dar o strategie de rate de schimbconduse de pia nu va periclita integrareacomerului dect dac posibila cretere avolatilitii de schimb este bine absorbit deun sistem financiar integrat i matur care aravea nevoie probabil de muli ani pentru acrete.

4. INTEGRAREA RAPID

Depinde foarte mult de orizontul de timp

political commitments to build a super-national institutional system to guarantee

peace as happened to Europe after the secondworld war (De Grauwe, Zhang 2006: 1646).

And hardly any institutional arrangement hasbeen set up to give democratic legitimacy tothe ongoing trade integration process. Thevery final target of non-European integration

processes is unknown, particularly in Asia.In the absence of a specific political aim,

only intermediate economic goals can betargeted, such as domestic business cyclesmoothing, greater coordinated response toasymmetric shocks, higher specialization oflabour and high rates of growth with minor

gaps among commercial partners.In this respect, it is obviously doubtful

whether the countries should commit to anyrigid exchange rate regime, even though witha band mechanism like the ERM(Exchange Rate Mechanism) of the EuropeanMonetary System. Gudmundsson (2008: 81),for example, points out how in this peculiar

period of high and divergent growth rates inthe area, flexible exchange rates might benecessary to accelerate unsynchronised

business cycles and therefore best prepare theconditions for subsequent commitments for amonetary union (see also Padoa Schioppa2004: 318). Instead of stabilizing exchangerates, Asian countries are invited, under thisrespect, to promote greater integration offinancial markets in order to absorb thenegative effects of exchange rates volatilityupon trade. Whatever group should befounded appropriate for monetary integration,the differences in the economic and financialdimensions of the participating countriesseem to suggest, with this viewpoint, thatthey had better avoid searching for exchangerates stabilization. Furthermore, as Cohen(2007) observes, the behaviour of exchangerates can be considered the result, rather thanan effective policy instrument, of the politicalrelationships among countries.

But a strategy of market-driven exchangerates will not jeopardize trade integration

only if the possible increasing exchange


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considerat. Desigur, procesele de integrareimplic de obicei schimbri istorice care certimp. Dar orizontul de timp depinde dearanjamentul politic. Reunificarea monetar

german a durat cteva luni. Unificareamonetar european a durat cteva decenii.Ambele au fost susinute de angajamente

politice, planificarea diferit reflectnd puterealor relativ.

Dac integrarea monetar asiatic esteconsiderat ca fiind o alegere auto-referenial,consideraiile de mai sus privind dificultatea(i poate inoportunitatea) de a accelera

procesul sunt corecte; cnd nu seendogenizeaz nicio consideraie global,

integrarea asiatic poate fi considerat ca fiindun proiect autonom care cere muli pai. Dardac se asum o perspectiv global, procesulasiatic, ca i alte procese de integrareregional, are un neles diferit. Aceasta nunseamn c dou niveluri (regional i global)ar trebui considerate ca vnzndu-se una pealta n favoarea uneia regional foarte probabilmai uoar (Kuroda 2004) sau c nevoia de unnou sistem global monetari financiar implicrespingerea (sau neglijarea uoar)

dinamicelor regionale (Mundell 2002).Dimpotriv. Un nou sistem monetarinternaional poate fi stabil pe termen scurtdoar dac se schieaz un mecanism multi-

polar n care macro-monedele regionale suntlegate.

Dac crearea unei noi ordini globalemulti-polare se consider a fi necesar pentrua asigura unele bunuri publice globale cumar fi stabilitatea financiar la sfrituldolarului / hegemoniei US, atunci orizontul detimp acioneaz ca un fel de constrngereasupra rndului vast de dispozitive deintegrare.

Doar dac labirintul mondial al banilor pentru a folosi cunoscuta expresia plin deneles a lui Robert Triffin este fondat pemonede cu caracteristici economicefundamentale comparabile, putem spera la unmanagement stabil al relaiilor economiceglobale n viitor.

Dac abordarea monedei paralele este

volatility is well absorbed by a mature andintegrated financial system, which would

probably require many years to grow.

4. Multi-speed IntegrationMuch depends on the time horizonconsidered. Of course integration processesusually involve historical changes that requiresome time. But the time horizon depends onthe political commitment. German monetaryreunification took some months. Europeanmonetary unification took some decades.Both were sustained by politicalcommitments, the different timing reflectingtheir relative strength.

If Asian monetary integration isconsidered as an auto-referential choice, theabove considerations concerning thedifficulty (and, possibly, the inopportunity) toaccelerate the process are correct: when noglobal consideration is endogenized, Asianintegration can be considered as anautonomous project which requires manysteps. But if a global perspective is assumed,Asian as well as other regional integration

processes take a different meaning. This does

not mean that the two (regional and global)levels should be considered as trading-offeach other in favour of the presumably easierregional one (Kuroda 2004) or that the needof a new, effective global monetary andfinancial system implies the rejection (or a

benign neglect) of regional dynamics(Mundell 2002). Quite the contrary. A newmonetary international system can only bestable on the long run if a multi-polarmechanism is designed where regionalmacro-currencies are linked.

If the creation of a new multi-polarglobal order is considered necessary to

provide some global public goods - such asfinancial stability - after the end of thedollar/US hegemony, then the time-horizonacts as a sort of constraint over the widerange of integration devices.

Only if the world money maze - to usethe known and meaningful expression by

Robert Triffin - is founded on currencies with


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singurul dispozitiv viabil la acel momentpentru un grup mare de ri, dar n acelai timpse consider a fi nedesluit i slab pentru afonda un nou pol mondial comparabil cu euro

i cu dolarul, ar trebui s se considere ostrategie de integrare diferit.Ceea ce ar trebui s se considere este un

proces de integrare rapid n Asia, unde uncentru de ri, cum ar fi (doar ca exemplu)Marea Chin la care se refer Cheung i Yuen(2005), ar trebui s ajung repede la o monedunic, sprijinit de un aranjament instituionaln care un reprezentant democratic al rilornumete o banc central independent.

Un grup mai larg de ri s-ar putea

angaja pentru un proiect comun, intind sfinaneze bunuri publice colective, cum ar fitransportul sau infrastructurile de comunicare.Aceasta ar permite crearea unui grad mai marede interese mprtite privind integrareainstituiilor comune i instrumenteloreconomice. Pentru moment, asemeneainvestiii publice colective ar putea fi finanatede ctre emiterea de obligaii comune sprijinitde un fond comun de rezerv constituit de

bncile centrale membre.

ntre timp, rile ASEAN+3 rmase(posibil extinse la India, Australia i NouaZeeland) ar putea seleciona cele mai

potrivite rate de schimb i dispozitivefinanciare pentru a ajuta la stabilizarea

performanelor macroeconomice ale fiecreiri i pentru a asigura ajutor financiar reciproci piee de active lichide.

Cu aceast abordare, fiecare ar ar aveatimp s ajusteze pn la cel mai potrivit pas deintegrare, fr s stnjeneasc procesulgeneral.

5. REMARCI CONCLUDENTEn ultima decad, creterea ateniei a fost

pus pe seama accelerrii proceselor deintegrare regional intind la o nou ordineinternaional bazat pe puterile regionalecontinentale. Criza financiar globalrecent i urmrirea Bretton Woods II nuvor slbi un asemenea cadru: un nou sistem

economic i monetar global va putea fi

comparable underlying economiccharacteristics, can we hope for a stablemanagement of global economic relations inthe future.

If the parallel currency approach is theonly viable device at the moment for a largegroup of countries, but at the same time it isconsidered to be too loose and weak to founda new world-pole comparable with the euroand the dollar, a different integration strategyshould be considered.

What might be envisaged is a multi-speedintegration process in Asia, where a core ofcountries, say (but only as an example) theGreater China referred to by Cheung and

Yuen (2005), should quickly proceed towardsa single currency, backed by an institutionalarrangement where a democraticrepresentative of the countries appoints anindependent central bank.

A wider group of countries might engagefor a common project aiming at financingsome collective public good, such astransport or communicating infrastructures.This would enable to create a higher degreeof shared interests in the integration of

common institutions and economicinstruments. For instance, such publiccollective investments could be financed bythe issue of common bonds backed by areserve pool constituted by member central

banks.In the meanwhile, the remaining Asean+3

countries (possibly extended to India,Australia and New Zeeland) could single outthe most suitable exchange rates and financialdevices to help stabilize macroeconomic

performances of each country and providereciprocal financial aid and liquid assetsmarkets.

With this approach, each country wouldhave the time to adjust to the most suitableintegration step without hindering the overall

process.

5. Concluding remarksIn the last decade, increasing attention

has been placed on the acceleration of


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construit doar n zone continentale integratecomparabile. Integrarea monetar n Asia, naceast privin, este i ar trebui s rmn

pe agenda diplomaiilor internaionale i a

devenit un subiect al cercetrilor din teoria ipolitica economic.Se fac multe ncercri de a seleciona

zonele de moned optim din fundamenteeconomice i consideraii politice.Extraordinara cretere a Indiei i Chinei dinultimul deceniu a schimbat complet scenariul.De la o agregare nedesluit a economiilormici sau medii unde Statele Unite putea jucaun rol hegemonic asigurnd un bun publiccolectiv numit stabilitate monetar,

interdependena mrit cere acum s seconsidere procese de integrare mai puternice,unde rolul Chinei pare a fi fundamental.Integrarea monetar are nevoie s ajute unasemenea proces..

Multe cercetri ncearc s culeag dinexperiena european pentru a solicitaanalogiile i diferenele (principale).Divergena din performanelemacroeconomice ale rilor implicate n

procesele de agregare i las pe muli

comentatori s fie precaui n legtur cu tipuli viteza de integrare monetar, dei studiiempirice mai recente au artat o aproximarerapid la unul sau mai multe criterii OCA.

Desigur, ar trebui s se solicite caintegrarea inedit a lanului productiv nregiunea est-asiatic n anii 90 i la nceputulanilor 2000 (Fukao, 2003), cu o relevancrescnd a comerului intra-industrial fa decomerul inter-industrial, s creeze unstimulent mare (care era foarte sczut atuncicnd nu lipsea cu desvrire n cazulintegrrii europene) pentru companiile care auun proces de producie fragmentat din punctde vedere teritorial pentru a diminua risculratei de schimb n domeniul lor multi-naional.Dar asemenea stimulente nu pot fi consideratesuficiente pentru a completa echilibrat lipsa unangajament politic ncastrat n dispozitiveinstituionale unde integrarea este o datorieconstituional, aa cum s-a ntmplat n

Europa. Prin urmare, muli autori subliniaz

regional integration processes aiming at anew international order based oncontinental regional powers. The recentglobal financial crisis and the quest for a

Bretton Woods II will not weaken suchframework: a new global economic andmonetary system can only be build oncomparable integrated continental areas.Monetary integration in Asia, in this respect,is - and should remain - on the agenda ofinternational diplomacies and has become asubject-matter of enquiries in economictheory and policy.

Many attempts are being made to singleout optimum currency areas from both

economic fundamentals and politicalconsiderations. The extraordinary growth ofIndia and China in the last decade hascompletely changed the scenario. From aloose aggregation of small or mediumeconomies where Japan and the United Statescould play a hegemonic role providing acollective public good named monetarystability, the increased interdependencerequires now to consider stronger integration

processes, where Chinas role seems to be

fundamental. Monetary integration needs toassist such process.

Many enquiries try to pick from theEuropean experience to stress the analogiesand (mainly) differences. The divergence inmacroeconomic performances of thecountries involved in the aggregation

processes let many commentators be cautiousabout the type and speed of monetaryintegration, although more recent empiricalstudies have shown a quick approximation toone or more of the several OCA criteria.

Of course, it should be stressed that theunprecedented integration of the productivechain in the East-Asian region in the 1990sand early 2000s (Fukao, 2003), with anincreasing relevance of intra-industry tradevis--vis inter-industry trade, create a highincentive (which was very low - when notcompletely missing - in the case of Europeanintegration) for corporations which have a

territorially fragmented production process to


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nevoia de un angajament instituional puternic, fie n domeniul politicii monetare simple, fientr-un proiect de integrare economic i chiar

politic mai larg.

De asemenea, trebuie s se ia nconsiderare i consideraiile politice. Nevoiade a consolida rapid progresul integrriiregionale mondiale, cu scopul de a facilitatrecerea la un nou sistem monetarinternaional, care a devenit deosebit de urgentdup ultima criz financiar originar dinSUA, ne determin s ne uitm mai degrab lao hart geografic dect la una cronologicsimpl de integrare.

n opinia noastr, acest lucru nseamn

c o baz puternic a monedelor asiatice (chiari o parte dintre ele) ar trebui s ajung la ouniune monetar cu rezultatul unei singuremonede, cu o banc central independent icu alte instituii reprezentative. Aceast noumoned ar trebui s se numeasc imediatUnitatea monetar asiatic (AMU) pentru aface pieele i viitorii parteneri s neleag cacesta este un proces deschis pentru orice arvrea s i se alture. n acelai timp, alte grupede ri ar trebui s se pun de acord asupra

diverselorinte de integrare. Asemenea inte arputea s rnduiasc de la fondarea investiiilorn unele bunuri publice regionale (Agarwala2003:3) la stabilizarea unei monede comune,de preferin cea stabilit deja, numit AMU.

Cu scopul de a face efectiv acest proces,ar trebui s fie aprobat de majoritatea rilorsud-asiatice, de preferin ASEAN+3 plusIndia, Australia, Noua Zeeland, Taiwan iHong Kong.

La urma urmei, este vorba de procesulde integrare rapid pe care l-a ales i Europa,unde diverse grade de solidaritate au efectul

pur de a pstra un numr mare de ri n cadrulunui proces preios de integrare, fr a lempiedica pe unele dintre ele s se apropie deun sistem politic i economic.

n concluzie, e nevoie de o abordarecuprinztoare a problemei integrrii monetareasiatice, unde consideraiile teoriei economicesunt sprijinite de scenarii politice pentru

situaia viitoare desfurat n Asia i n

minimize the exchange rate risk within theirmultinational framework. But such incentivescannot be deemed sufficient to completelyoffset the lack of a political commitment

embedded in institutional devices whereinintegration is a constitutional duty, ashappened in Europe. Many Authors thereforeunderline the need for a strong institutionalcommitment, either in the mere monetary

policy domain, or in a wider economic - andeven political - integration project.

And geopolitical considerations have tobe also taken into account. The need torapidly consolidate the progress on regionalintegration worldwide, in order to ease the

transition to a new international monetarysystem, which has become particularly urgentafter the recent US-originated financial crisis,induces to look also at a geographical ratherthan a mere chronological integrationroadmap.

This means, in our opinion, that a strongand hard core of Asian currencies (even a fewof them) should proceed to a monetary unionwith the issue of a single currency, with anindependent central bank and other

representative institutions. This new currencyshould be immediately given the name ofsome Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) to makemarkets and future partners understand that itis a process open to everybody who might bewilling to join. At the same time, othergroups of countries should agree on differentintegration targets. Such targets might rangefrom funding investments in some regional

public goods (Agarwala 2003: 3) to pegginga common currency, preferably the alreadyestablished AMU.

In order to make this process effective, itshould be agreed upon by most South Asiancountries, preferably the ASEAN+3 plusIndia, Australia, New Zeeland, Taiwan andHong Kong.

After all, it is the multi-speed integrationprocess which also Europe has chosen, wheredifferent degrees of cohesion have thevirtuous effect to keep a greater number of

countries within a precious integration


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ntreaga lume. Paii ctre un aranjamentmonetar comun regional pot nc reprezentacea mai eficace strategie pentru a facilita ointegrare politic mai mare la un nivel supra-

naional i acest lucru ar putea ajutaaccelerarea procesului unei lumi multi-polaremai legitime, aadar aceast discuie nu artrebui detaat de reforma ntregului sistemmonetar internaional.

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*Departamentul de instituii publice, tiine economice i societate, Universitatea din Roma 3, adres de e-mail:[email protected]. Acest document este construi pe baza unui material adunat pentru o observa ie istorico-grafic (cu care mparte unele pri) care va fi publicat la prima problem viitoare a Jurnalului onlinePerspectiveprivind federalismul, publicat de Centro Studi sul Federalismo, Moncalieri (To) cu titlul:Integrarea monetarasiatic n dezbaterile economice recente.* Department of Public Institutions, Economics and Society, University of Rome 3, e-mail address:[email protected]. This paper is built on the material gathered for a historiographical note (with which itshares some parts) that will be published on the forthcoming first issue of the on-line Journal Perspectives onFederalism edited by the Centro Studi sul Federalismo, Moncalieri (To) with the title: Asian MonetaryIntegration in Recent Economic Debates.

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