competitivitatea mediului de afaceri in...
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COMPETITIVITATEA
MEDIULUI DE AFACERI
IN COTEXTUL EUROPEAN—
12.12.2018
IANCU GUDA, CFA, EMBA
COFACE SERVICES DIRECTOR
AAFBR PRESIDENT
IBR – ISF TRAINER (ANC)
2
EVOLUTIA ANTREPRENORIATULUI ROMANESC
Anul 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Suspendari 12.019 29.456 24.398 21.221 21.086 24.078 15.788 17.698 15.918 16.000
Dizolvari 3.762 18.766 7.508 4.001 22.500 23.208 18.336 27.967 29.923 30.000
Radieri 17.676 43.615 58.726 56.245 71.746 80.786 76.483 94.374 109.113 80.000
Insolvente 14.483 18.421 19.650 21.499 25.842 27.924 20.170 10.170 8.053 8.256
Intreruperi 47.940 110.258 110.282 102.966 141.174 155.996 130.823 150.209 163.007 134.256
Inregistrari 144.239 116.022 119.048 130.162 125.603 124.816 101.627 113.167 105.982 140.000
din care SRL 100.661 56.698 48.102 62.735 61.542 60.292 56.381 64.417 73.889 100.000
OUT : IN 0,5 1,9 2,3 1,6 2,3 2,6 2,3 2,3 2,2 1,3
Raport inmatriculari vs. Intreruperi activitate – ultimul deceniu
Categorie
Ianuarie - Iunie
2017
Ianuarie - Iunie
2018
Dinamica 2018 /
2017
Suspendari 7.597 9.618 27%
Dizolvari 12.688 18.570 46%
Radieri 41.257 41.748 1%
Insolvente 4.677 4.486 -4%
Total Intreruperi 66.219 74.422 12%
Inmatriculari 79.251 71.473 -10%
din care, SRL 56.204 45.276 -19%
Intreruperi / Inmatriculari SRL 1,64
Raport inmatriculari vs. Intreruperi activitate – H1 2018
10
1415
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Romania Ungaria Cehia Polonia
Durata de activitate a companiilor (ani)
3
POLARIZAREA VENITURILOR
Top Companii Romania Ungaria Polonia Cehia
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 67% 52% 48% 40%
5% 86% 64% 62% 51%
10% 91% 72% 68% 59%
20% 95% 78% 73% 65%
50% 98% 81% 75% 67%
Polarizarea veniturilor
Distributia companiilor in Romania in functie de anul de infiintare
PARADOXUL ULTIMULUI DECENIU: CRESTE ECONOMICA MARE RISC MARE?
Evolutia PIB real Distributia Altman Z-score
Top 500 CEE - 6.09.20184
Altman Z-score Median in functie de venituri Distributia riscului in functie de venituri
MICROINTREPRINDERI VS COMPANIILE MARI
26%24% 22% 21% 20% 17% 15% 15% 16% 14%
74% 76% 78% 79% 80% 83% 85% 85% 84% 86%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 1. Pondere Cifra Afaceri in total venituri mediul de afaceri - distributie in functie de dimensiune
CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR
0.11 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12
0.24
0.32 0.35 0.35 0.37
0.40 0.41 0.42
0.43 0.49
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 2. Cifra Afaceri companii / numar de angajati (cifre in mil RON)
CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR
Polarizarea veniturilor Eficienta muncii
Top 500 CEE - 6.09.20185
MICROINTREPRINDERI VS COMPANIILE MARI
Profitabilitatea comerciala Trezoreria
-2.4%
-5.5% -4.9%
-4.4%
-4.7%
-4.1%
-1.9%
1.0%
2.2%2.6%
0.4%
1.1% 1.9%
1.8%
2.7%
2.5%
3.2%
4.3%4.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 3. Rezultat net : Cifra afaceri
CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR
11% 11%
13%12%
11%
13%
14%
18% 18%
16%
10%
9% 9%8% 8%
9%10%
11%11% 11%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 4. Trezorerie: Datorii
CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR
Top 500 CEE - 6.09.20186
MICROINTREPRINDERI VS COMPANIILE MARI
Gradul de indatorare
79% 82%83% 81%
91%93% 92% 93% 93% 91%
58% 55% 57% 57% 57% 55% 54% 53% 52%
44%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 6. Gradul de indatorare
CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR
Top 500 CEE - 6.09.20187
59%
56%
59%
55%
52% 53%52%
41%
61%
57%57% 56%
44%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grafic 5. Active imobilizate % Total Active
CifraAfaceri < 1 mil EUR CifraAfaceri > 1 mil EUR
Investitiile pe termen lung
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PIERDEREA RESURSEI UMANE DE CALITATE
RECENSAMANT ROMANIA
INDICATOR An 1990 An 2011 Dinamica
Grupa de varsta Mii pers. % Mii pers. % 2011 vs 1990
0 – 9 3,503 15.1% 2,099 10.43% -40%
10 - 19 3,845 16.6% 2,199 10.93% -43%
20 - 29 3,368 14.5% 2,669 13.27% E-21%
30 - 39 3,428 14.8% 3,062 15.22% -11%
40 - 49 2,634 11.4% 2,82 14.02% 7%
50 - 60 2,794 12.0% 3,05 15.16% 9%
60 - 70 2,201 9.5% 2,036 10.12% -7%
peste 70 1,432 6.2% 2,186 10.86% 53%
TOTAL 23,207 100.0% 20,121 100.0% -7%
Emigranti 2017 in functie de sexe si varsta
Investitiile in educatie % PIB
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INFRASTRUCTURA DE TRANSPORT PUBLIC
Infrastructura de transport public rutier
Tara Autostrazi (km)Autostrazi (km la
1000 locuitori)
Clasament dupa
autostrazi (km/1000 loc)
SI 769 0,37 1
ES 14.701 0,31 2
CY 257 0,3 3
HR 1.254 0,29 4
LU 152 0,29 5
PT 2.988 0,28 6
DK 1.195 0,21 7
SE 2.013 0,21 8
AT 1.719 0,2 9
IE 900 0,2 10
FR 11.465 0,18 11
DE 12.879 0,16 12
NL 2.666 0,16 13
BE 1.763 0,16 14
HU 1.515 0,15 15
FI 810 0,15 16
EL 1.659 0,15 17
IT 6.726 0,11 18
LT 309 0,1 19
EE 124 0,09 20
SK 419 0,08 21
BG 541 0,07 22
CZ 751 0,07 23
UK 3.756 0,06 24
PL 1.365 0,04 25
RO 550 0,03 26
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PIERDEREA INDEPENDENTEI FINANCIARE - DECAPITALIZARE
Evolutia gradului de indatorare Evolutia insolventelor
Evolutia dividendelor (mld RON) Concentrarea datoriilor companiilor
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• Capital de lucru pozitiv (2008) => Capital de lucru negativ (2015-2017)
• Scaderea gradului de capitalizare, de la 35% (anul 2008) la 25% (anul 2017)
• Cresterea ponderii datoriilor pe termen scurt in total datorii, de la 58% (2008) la 79% (2017)
• Dezinvestitii nete, activele fixe scazand de la 63% (anul 2008) la 43% (anul 2017)
PIERDEREA INDEPENDENTEI FINANCIARE – DEZECHILIBRU BILANTIER
12 Top 500 CEE - 6.09.2018
Investitiile pe termen lung in 2017 - MINIM dupa 2008
Anul Active Imobilizate Corporale Amortizare CAPEX Amortizare % CAPEX % CAPEX : Amortizare
2007 636.212
2008 656.188 55.350 75.327 8,7% 11,8% 1,36
2009 667.361 59.713 70.885 9,1% 10,8% 1,19
2010 641.786 58.728 33.153 8,8% 5,0% 0,56
2011 698.280 59.044 115.538 9,2% 18,0% 1,96
2012 691.374 64.940 58.034 9,3% 8,3% 0,89
2013 678.429 67.755 54.810 9,8% 7,9% 0,81
2014 714.128 64.451 100.149 9,5% 14,8% 1,55
2015 753.806 67.128 106.807 9,4% 15,0% 1,59
2016 769.764 69.350 85.308 9,2% 11,3% 1,23
2017 707.856 70.049 8.140 9,1% 1,1% 0,12
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VA MULȚUMESC!