climatul si turismul

8/10/2019 Climatul Si Turismul

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Tourism and Climate ChangePolicies for Mitigation and Adaptation

Stefan GsslingDept. of Service Management, Lund University, Sweden

School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, Sweden

Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism, Western Norway Research Institute

Workshop on sustainable development strategies

and tourism, 18 June 2010, OECD, Paris


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Tourism is affected

by climate change

and a significantcontributor to

climate change


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Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008


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Emerging climate change

adaptation policies

Australia: Tourism and climate changea framework for

action

Austria: Awareness raising; participation in the national

research programme on climate change

Caribbean: comprehensive climate change vulnerabilityassessment ongoing

France: Research on the impact of climate change on

tourism, adjustment and associated costs

Germany: Guidelines to review of how to turn challenges

into opportunities

Ireland: Climate Change, Heritage and TourismImplications

for Irelands Coast and inland waterways

Norway: Investigated adaptation needs for a range of sectors.

New Zealand: Strategic plan for tourism and CC

United Kingdom: England South West, Awareness raising

campaign


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Conclusions adaptation

policy Few governments develop adaptation policies

specifically for tourism (full review in progress)

Political interest in adaptation and financial resources

allocated to identifying adaptation needs (and policies)

not always high.

Undoubtedly need to develop tourism adaptation

policies in coordinated, though destination-specific way.

Adaptation policy is about much more than costing and

financing, establishing incentives is also critical

(OECD 2009)


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Tourism as a contributor to emissions:

CO2,in 2005

Sub-Sectors CO2(Mt)

Air transport * 522 40%Car transport 418 32%

Other transport 39 3%Accommodation 274 21%

Activities 52 4%

TOTAL 1,307

Total World(IPCC 2007) 26,400

TourismContribution 4.95%

Transportation

of Tourists = 75%

of Sector Emissions

* - does not include

non-CO2emissions

and impact on climate.

Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008; Scott et al. 2010


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CO2only vs .radiative forcing (RF),

2005

* Rounded, AIC: aviation induced clouds

Source: Scott et al. 2010

Tourism contribution to global warming: 5.2-12.5%


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Business as Usual Projection of

Future CO2Emissions from Tourism

* Excluding same-day visitors

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2035

MtCO2

Air Transport

Car TransportOther Transport

Accommodation

Activities40%

32%

21%

52%

16%

25%

4% 7%

Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008


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Emissions from tourism and

global reduction needs

Global emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth, including energy

efficiency improvements as in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008).

Source: Peeters, 2009


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Climate policy goals

Source: Scott et al. (2010)


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Economics of mitigation

Essential to focus on all GHG, not only CO2,

because cost-increase for mitigation otherwise

substantial Exempting emission-intense industries will

significantly increase future abatement costs

All countries need to be part of reducing

emissions

Source: OECD 2009


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Policy mix necessary

1. Market-based approaches

2. Regulations and standards

3. Research & Development

4. Information-based instruments to facilitate

consumer choices

Note that many pol ic ies do no t apply specif ical ly for tour ism ,

because it is a highly fragmented secto r, rather thancon sum ption more general ly .


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1. Market-based approaches

Removing perverse energy subsidies (10% by 2050*)

Emission trading (-50% in Annex I countries by 2050)

Taxes (huge potential, but depending on price levels)

*based on OECD 2009


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EU ETS

(and other emission trading schemes)

Production-oriented, so little impact on

consumption in many areas

Not ambitious - no significant impact? (e.g.

over-allocation in first trading period 2005-2007) Open, i.e. cheap imports possible through CDM

EU ETS for aviation: 10% reduction by 2020, but

grandfathering for 85% of credits, and open

trading option.(3/1,000 pkm at permit prices of25 per ton of

CO2; Scott et al. 2010)


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Taxes for aviation

Currently mostly duties, which have distortive

effects, carbon tax superior

Carbon tax needs to be comparably high, possibly

in the order of300/t CO2, to have significantimpact

(cf. Mayor and Tol 2007, 2010)

Taxes in OECD coun tr ies on fuel (cars) have had effect

of signi f icant ly reduc ing fuel use! (Sterner 2007)


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Decline in arrivals because of EU ETS?

Yes in relative terms, no in absolute terms

Source: Gssling et al. 2008


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2. Regulation and Standards

Building codes

Electrical appliance standards

...

Purchase standards (e.g. FSC)?

REDD?

OECD (2009): create forest carbon market

that is separate from other markets


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3. Research & Development

Considerable potential, but:

Relying on R&D policy alone (in the absence of a

carbon p r ice) wou ld not be enough to reduce

emissions sufficiently

(OECD 2009:21)


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The case of aviation

Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Year of market introduction

EnergyIntensityEI(MJ/ask)

Penner et al. (1999)

Best fit regression

A380

Piston powered airliners

B787

Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)

While observed and expected efficiency gains are in the order

of 1.5-2.0% per year, passenger growth is 4% per year.


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Biofuels - uncertainties

Which biofuel? Jatropha, algae, ...?

Substitutability of Jet A?

Energy-input versus energy-output?

Emission output compared to Jet A?

Area use?

Costs compared to Jet A?


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4. Information-based instruments


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Mandatory

carbon labelling?

Bonus/malussystems?


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Climate change policies for

mitigationAustralia: carbon assessment of tourism sector

Costa Rica: strives to become carbon neutral by 2021

Finland: monitoring and evaluation with a focus on transport-related

issues

France: promotion of green travel

Ireland: Carbon Strategy DocumentKorea: initiatives to promote low carbon green growth in tourism

Maldives: national goal to become carbon neutral by 2019

Norway: strives to reduce emissions by 40% by 2020, including all

sectors.

New Zealand: development of tools to assist tourism businesses to

measure and reduce their carbon footprintSweden: sustainable solutions for addressing climate change

United Kingdom: CO2emission reduction by 60% by 2050 law;

Developing low carbon strategies, tools to reduce emissions already

implemented (England South West)


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Integrating tourism policy

throughoutGlobal

National

Regional

Organizational

Business

UNFCCC

20% (EU) -100% (Maldives)

Regional visitors (S&F, Norw.)

International Air Passenger

Adaptation Levy -IAPAL-

Business (CCX, Aspen/USA)


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Conclusions

Global mitigation policy (Kyoto Protocol and its

mechanisms) faces a number of problems

(sufficient number of countries need to be

signatory, structure of NAPs, additionality of CDMprojects, etc.)

Tougher mitigation policies are needed globally

and nationally, based on a policy mix

(Mitigation policies are wanted by business!)

National policy frameworks are emerging, but

slowly and uncoordinated


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Thank you for your attention!

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