creativitatea -cap.3 prognoza tehnologică
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8/8/2019 Creativitatea -cap.3 Prognoza Tehnologic
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3
Prognoza = HYDOXDUHD SUREDELO VWDELOLW vQ PRG WLLQ LILF D HYROX LHL FDOLWDWLYH L
cantitative a unui domeniu ntr-un interval de timp (numit orizontul prognozei L VWDELOLUHD
HYROX LLORULVW ULORUSRVLELOHDOHGRPHQLXOXLSUHFXPLSUREDELOLW LOHDVRFLDWHORUFXVFRSXOGHD
IDFH ID vQ PRG LQWHOLJHQW L HILFLHQW VFKLPE ULORU H[LVWHQWHL D FHORU SUHYL]LELOH GH D SHUPLWH
DSUHFLHUHDFRQVHFLQ HORUGHYLLWRUDOHGHFL]LLORUOXDWHDFXP
SURJQR] WHKQRORJLF FHDFDUHVHRFXS GHHYROX LDWHKQRORJLLORULDSURGXVHORULGHIDSWFHDFDUHQHYDLQWHUHVDSHQRLLGHFDUHQHYRPRFXSDvQFHOHFHXUPHD]
SURJQR] HFRQRPLF ; SURJQR] VRFLDO
$XGLVS UXWFXWRWXO rigla de calcul tablele de logaritmi motorul de avion cu elice a fost practic total nlocuit n transportul aviatic civil de cel cu
UHDF LH
tuburile electronice cu vid ceasurile cu arc OHPQXOGLQUDFKHWHOHGHWHQLVGLQVFKLXULGLQSU MLQDGHODDWOHWLVP
8OWLPDYHQLW FDUHDUSXWHDLHDvQFk LYDDQLV UHYROX LRQH]HXQDVDXFKLDUGRX UDPXUL
LQGXVWULDOHHVWHEXWHOLDVWLFODGH3(7FDUHRvQORFXLHWHSHFHDGHVWLFO ODS VWUDUHDE XWXULORU
ILLQGFRQVLGHUDELOPDLXRDU LPDLUH]LVWHQW ODRFXUL
Caracteristicile prognozelor:
Orizontul de timp; Gradul de detaliere; 1DWXUDGHFL]LHLFHWUHEXLHOXDW SHED]DVWXGLXOXL 6WDELOLWDWHDVLVWHPXOXLOHJHDGHHYROX LHDVLVWHPXOXLWLSXOGHPRGHO CostulLPSOLFDWGHDFWLYLWDWHDGHSURJQR] costul de punere a punct a metodei; FRVWXULOHGHDFWXDOL]DUHDPHWRGHLLDGDWHORU ; FRVWXULOHGHUHDOL]DUHSURSULX]LV DSURJQR]HL costurile de comparare a rezultatelor cu cele ale altor metode. Precizia 8XULQ DGHDSOLFDUH
&HD PDLLPSRUWDQW FODVLILFDUH DWHKQLFLORUGHSURJQR] HVWH FHD FDUHOHvPSDUWH vQWHKQLFL
cantitativeLcalitative.
352*12=$7(+12/2*,&
3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune3.2. Metode calitative de previziune3.3. 6FHQDULLOHFDPHWRG GHSURJQR]
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3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune
3HQWUXDUHDOL]DRSURJQR] FDQWLWDWLY WUHEXLHV GLVSXQHPGHXQQXP UGHYDORULP VXUDWH
FXOHVHODPRPHQWHGLIHULWHGLQWUHFXW2E LQHPDVWIHOLUXO;W3HED]DYDORULORU;LFXLGHODOD
t (t fiind momentul prezent) putem calcula valorile estimate pentru perioada (sau, uneori,
SHULRDGHOH XUP WRDUH 6W 6WQ 3UH]HQW P vQ ILJ - VFKHPD GH FRUHVSRQGHQ D
variabilelor.
V a l RULP VXUDWH9DORULSURJQR]DWH
Valorile X(1) X(2) X(3) ..... X(t-1) X(t) S(t+1) S(t+2) S(t+3)
Perioada 1 2 3 ..... t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3
momentul actual
Fig. 3.1. -9DORULOHP VXUDWHYDORULOHSURJQR]DWHLWLPSXO
S(t+1) = F [ x(1), x(2), ....., x(t)]
(URDUHDFDOFXODW FkQGHYHQLPHQWXOV-a produs) : e(t+1) = S(t+1) - x (t+1)
3.1.1. Tehnicile de regresie.
0HWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH
y = f(t) astfel nct: [y(t) - x(t)]2 = minim
Pentru dreapta: y = a + b t
a = [( X) - b ( t)] / nb = [n ( X.t ) - ( X)( t) ] / [n ( t2 ) - ( t)2 ]
Pentru plinomiala: y = a + b t + c t2 + d t3 + .....
FRHILFLHQ LLDEFGVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOXQRUUHOD LLVLPLODUHFHORUGHPDLVXV
3HQWUXDOWHIXQF LLVHIDFHRlinearizare. Exemple:
y = a ebt (logaritmare) ln y = ln a + b t similar cu y' = a' + bt ;
y = a + b / x (x' = 1 / x) y = a + b x'
$OHJHUHDIXQF LHLRSWLPH
Criteriul lui Gauss. ,QGLFHOHGHFRQFRUGDQ vQWUHPXO LPHDSXQFWHORU;WLQWURGXVHLDpunctelor Y(t) calculate cu
IXQF LDDOHDV
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0HWRGHGHSURJQR] SULQILOWUDMDGDSWLY
Metoda mediilor mobile:
S(t+1) = [X(t) + X(t-1) + ...... + X(t -n +1)] / n
0HWRGDQHWH]LULLH[SRQHQ LDOH
S(t+1) = x(t) + (1-) x(t-1) + (1-)2 x(t-2) + (1-)3 x(t-3) + ...... [ 0
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3.2.1. Metoda curbelor logistice
Fig.3.2.-(YROX LDXQHLWHKQRORJLLGXSDRFXUE ORJLVWLF
y = p / (1 +a e-bx) unde: p = plafonul; a,b = parametrii.
'HPRQVWUD LH3HQWUXSHULRDGDLQL LDO VHSRDWHDGPLWHF FUHWHUHDYDILSURSRU LRQDO FX
nivelul atins, deci:dy / dt = k.y(t)
9DORDUHDOXLNYDULD] SHP VXU FHQHDSURSLHPGHSILHEN- y(t) / p)
dy / dt = k ( 1 - y / p) y
ceea ce prin separarea variabileloULLQWHJUDUHQHG \WS>S\- 1) e-bx ]
DGLF H[DFWHFXD LDORJLVWLFLLFXDS\R-XQGH\RHVWHYDORDUHDLQL LDO DOXL\
Tab. 2.2.-1 Caracteristicile economice ale diferitelor tipuri de procese tehnologice
Tehnologii emergente evolutive mature n declin
&XPS -
U WRUL
cu venituri mari WRWPDLPXO L FRQVXPGHPDV U PkQFHLILGHOL
Produs FDOLWDWHPHGLRFU
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norme respectate de
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calitate mai
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Riscuri
fabricant
nalte minime, acoperite
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mici certitudinea
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curnd.
Profituri mici mari f. mari vQVF GHUHConcu-
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cteva firme multe firme, dar
este loc pt. toate
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mari
subcapacitate,
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minime
supra-capacitate
Vnzare UHFODP IVXV LQXW vQFUHWHUH
PDUFDW
segmen-WDUHSLD UHGXFHUHSLD
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Fig. 3.2. - (YROX LD vQ WLPS D
familiilor posednd produse din
domeniul electro - PHQDMHUvQ )UDQ D
1985.
PDLQLGHVS ODWUXIH
PDLQLGHVS ODWYDVH
Fig. 3.2. -6LWXDUHDSHORJLVWLF DFXSWRDUHORU
FXPLFURXQGHvQGLYHUVH ULvQDQXO
Fig..3.2. - (YROX LD GLIHULWHORU
PDVH SODVWLFH SULQ SULVPD VLWX ULL ORU SH
ORJLVWLF vQ
Fig.3.2.-6XFFHVLXQHDXQRUWHKQRORJLLvQGRX YDULDQWH$%GH
HYROX LHDGRPHQLXOXLWHKQRORJLF
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Fig. 3.2.-6 Efectele
economice ale unei
noi tehnologii
6SD LXOWUDQVIHUXULORUGHWHKQRORJLH
3URJQR]DH[SORUDWLY
Nivelul tehnologic:
Treapta 1: 5HVXUVHWLLQ LILFH.Treapta 2: Resurse tehnologice.
Treapta 3: Tehnologii elementare.
Treapta 4: Sisteme tehnologice.
NivelulFRQVHFLQ HORU:
Treapta 5: Aplicatii.
Treapta 6: Mediul ambiant.
Treapta 7: Sistem social
Treapta 8: Societatea.
3URJQR]DQRUPDWLY
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SRDUW QXPHOHGHPHWRGDDUERULORUGHSHUWLQHQ 0HWRGD DUERULORU GH SHUWLQHQ LQWURGXFH HOHPHQWH GH WHRULD JUDIXULORU GHVFRPSXQkQG
sistemul n mai multe nivele n cadrulF URUDWRDWHSUREOHPHOHDXHJDO LPSRUWDQ
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prognozprognoz
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alte ramuriindustriale
alte firmealte ri
Prognoza normativ
8. Obiective globale7. Obiective naionale
6. Misiuni
5. Sarcini de ndeplinit
4. Uzine noi
3. Tehnologii noi2. Cereri de brevete
1. Contracte de cercetare
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UH]ROYDUH DSUREOHPHORUFULWHULXO RS LXQLLILLQGP VXUDSHUWLQHQ HLQRGXULORU, anume aportul pecare rezolvarea nodului l aduce la rezolvarea unui obiectiv de la nivelul imediat superior.
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courier Problemele pe care le ntlnim la nivelul imediat inferior sunt turbina, compresorul,
giroscRSXOLVLVWHPXOGHFLUFXOD LHDJD]HORU
Tab.3.2. -&DOFXOXOSHUWLQHQ HLSUREOHPHORUGHUH]ROYDWGHODQLYHOXOi + 1.
Criteriul :
putere PDV manevrabilitate cost SHUWLQHQ
Pondere : 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,2
7XUELQ 0,25 0,4 0 0,2 0,26Compresor 0,25 0,4 0 0,3 0,28
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Fig. 3.2. -9DULD LDFRVWXULORUGHIDEULFD LHSHQWUXIHUHVWUHOHFXWkPSO ULHGLQOHPQLGLQ39&
(2) [curbaa]UHVSHFWLYSHQWUXF ]LOHGHEDLHGLQIRQW LGLQSODVWLFHFRPSR]LWH[curbab]
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fig. 3.2 - 8. Ponderea maselor plastice n structura
unei aeronave.
(1) Helicoptere militare;
DYLRDQHGHYkQ WRDUH
(3) avioane civile.
&XUEHOH L "indicatori de avanstehnologic".
3.2.5. Metoda Delphi
&RQVWLWXLUHDXQXLJUXSGHH[SHU L(circa 100 ).2. Elaborarea unui chestionar.
$QDOL]DU VSXQVXULORU6HDOF WXLHWHXQDOGRLOHDFKHVWLRQDUFXDFHOHDLvQWUHE ULSUHFL]kQGWRWRGDW care esteYDORDUHDPHGLHDSURJQR]HLUH]XOWDW GLQSULPXOFKHVWLRQDULFDUHHVWHLQWHUYDOXOLQWHUTXDUWLOvQFDUH
VHVLWXHD] GLQU VSXQVXUL
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tehnologicului);
UXSWXULOHGHULWPVXQWLHOHGHRVHELWGe rapide; factorii demografici, socio-FXOWXUDOLSROLWLFLOHHQHUJHWLFHFXQRVFGLQFRQWU XQJUDGPDUHGH
LQHU LHFHHDFHFUHD] QXPHURDVHWHQVLXQL
Fig. 3.3. - 1. Utilizarea scenariilor pentru stabilirea politicii firmei.
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Fig. 3.3. - 2. Principalele etape ale construirii unui scenariu.
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V ILHGHWDOLDW LDSURIXQGDW SHSODQFDOLWDWLYLFDQWLWDWLY V ILHJOREDO OXkQGvQ FRQVLGHUD LHIDFWRULLWehnologici, economici, politici, sociologici, de
SURWHF LHDPHGLXOXL
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V ILH explicativ V SUH]LQWH vQ PRGOLPSHGHFXDUJXPHQWHMXVWLILFDWLYH WRDWH DILUPD LLOHI FXWH&RQVWUXF LDED]HLFRPSRUW ODUkQGXOHLPDLPXO LSDLDQXPHGHOLPLWDUHDVLVWHPXOXL
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Delimitarea sistemului LPSOLF PDL vQWkL VWDELOLUHD OLPLWHORU VLVWHPXOXL GH VWXGLDW
Determinarea variabilelor. WUHEXLHI FXW ROLVW FRPSOHW DYDULDELOHORUFDUHWUHEXLHV FRQ LQ
variabilele interne, cele care caraFWHUL]HD] GRPHQLXOQRVWUX YDULDELOHOH H[WHUQH FHOH FH DSDU LQ HQYLURQPHQWXOXL H[SOLFDWLY L FDUH SRW LQIOXHQ D
comportarea domeniului interesant pentru noi;
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1. CONSTRUIREA BAZEI
2. ELABORARE SCENARIU
3. ELABORARE PROGNOZE
4. DEFINIRE STRATEGII
5. ALEG(5(175(23 ,81,675$7(*,&(
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VHPQDOHOHVODEHDFHOHYDULDELOHFDUHVHPDQLIHVW H[WUHPGHGLVFUHWSHPRPHQWGDUFDUHYRUDYHDRHYROX LHSXWHUQLF GHYHQLQGODXQPRPHQWGDWGHWHUPLQDQ L
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explicative ( variabile independente comandabile), de releu (intermediare), autonome (independente necomandabile), UH]XOWDQWHGHLHLUH
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aleatorii de moment (ale prezentului) de tHQGLQ DJHQHUDO LQYDULDQ LLGHWHUPLQDQ L'HDVHPHQHD
se pot identifica germenii de schimbare, semnalele slabe.
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LHYHQWXDOHOHPHQWHOHFDUHSRWGHWHUPLQDHYROX LDvQYLLWRUDUDSRUWXULORUGHIRU H9RUUH]XOWDDVWIHO
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&RQVWUXF LDVFHQDULXOXLPentru n ipoteze vor rezulta 2n scenarii posibile !
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matrice):
p (i / j) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF VHFRQILUP LSRWH]Dj;
p (i /j ) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF LSRWH]Dj QXVHFRQILXUP
4. 1RUPDOL] PGDWHOHDVWIHOvQFkW0 p(i) 1p(i/j) . p(i) = p(j/i). p(j) = p(i,j)
DWHQ LHSLMSLSMGHRDUHFHSLLSMQXVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHvQWUHHOH p(i/j).P(j) + p(i/j ).p(j ) = p(i)
5. 3ULQLWHUD LLVXFFHVLYHVHUHFDOFXOHD] SLSLMLSLj ), folosind fie metoda Monte CarloILHPHWRGDODQ XULORU0DUNRY
6. &DOFXODUHDSUREDELOLW LORUGHUHDOL]DUHDVFHQDULLORU36P(Sj) = p(i)
7. 6HHOLPLQ YDULDQWHOHDEVXUGH.8. 6HUHFDOXOHD] SHQWUXFHOHS VWUDWHYDORUL P(Sj) = k.P(Sj)
XQGHNVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHOvQFkW P(Sj) = 1,
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Descompunerea sistemului n subsisteme independente la momentul m
(YROX LDILHF UXLVXEVLVWHPWHQGLQ HVWUDWHJLLLQYDULDQ LDPG.
5HFRPSXQHUHDVLVWHPXOXLHYLGHQ LHUHFRQIOLFWHWHQGLQ HQRL
FRQVHFLQ HHYROX LHUXSWXUL
Fig. 3.3. -(YROX LDVXEVLVWHPHORUvQWUHPRPHQWHOHPLP
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Incertitudini RISC intuitiv Obiective pe termen lung
SCENARII STRATEGII
variabile cheie Criterii
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vor fi:
1. 1XP UXOGHWXULWLFHIRORVHVFDHURSRUWXOODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSGDWYDILGHPLQLPXP17 2.
1XP UXOPHGLXGHORFXULDODYLRDQHORUGHSDVDJHULYDILGHPLQLPXP&33. DatoULW DJORPHUD LHLDYLRDQHOHYRUGHFRODLDWHUL]DFXRvQWkU]LHUHPHGLHPDLPDUHGH01PLQXWH
4. 3UH XOXQXLELOHWGHDYLRQYDVF GHDFXFHOSX LQ65. 3kQ ODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSVWXGLDWYHQLWXOSRSXOD LHYDFUHWHvQPHGLHFX9SHDQ6. ([WLQGHUHDRUDXOXLspre aeroport va impune o anulare a zborurilor de noapte cu un procent de
RZ %
(unde evident NT, CP, MN, S,V,RZ primesc valori numerice concrete)
6 SUHVXSXQHP GH DVHPHQHD F LQL LDO FHORU LSRWH]H OL V-DX DWULEXLW SUREDELOLW LOH SS
egale resSHFWLYFXLDUSUREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHVXQWFHOHGLQ
tab. 3.3. - 1.
Tab. 3.3.-3UREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHSLMSLj )
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0,5 / 0,3 0,7 / 0,4 0,8 / 0,1 0,6 / 0,1 0,4 / 0,5
2 0,8 / 0,3 0,5 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,6 0,7 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,6
3 0,7 / 0,6 0,4 / 0,7 0,7 / 0,6 0,7 / 0,6 0.8 / 0,4
4 0,8 / 0,1 0,6 / 0,3 0,4 / 0,4 0,4 / 0,1 0,1 / 0,7
5 0,7 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6 0,8 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6
6 0,5 / 0,8 0,8 / 0,5 0,5 / 0,7 0,7 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,7
,QXUPDSUHOXFU ULLSULQPHWRGD0RQWH&DUORUH]XOW PDWULFHDGLQWDE- 2.
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Tab. 3.3. -3UREDELOLW LOHSUHOXFUDWHSULQDSOLFDUHDPHWRGHL0RQWH&DUOR
p(i / j) / p (i / j )p(i)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0,55 / 0,14 0,50 / 0,29 0,83 / 0,13 0,50 / 0,25 0,35 / 0,57 0,41
2 0,89 / 0,51 0,57 / 0,83 0,85 / 0,55 0,66 / 0,69 0,77 / 0,42 0,67
3 0,72 / 0,52 0,51 / 0,79 0,63 / 0,58 0,60 / 0,60 0,63 / 0,54 0,60
4 0,81 / 0,11 0,51 / 0,18 0,42 / 0,38 0,47 / 0,28 0,31 / 0,62 0,40
5 0,78 / 0,54 0,63 / 0,67 0,64 / 0,64 0,75 / 0,57 0,66 / 0,61 0,64
6 0,59 / 0,78 0,81 / 0,48 0,73 / 0,66 0,54 / 0,81 0,72 / 0,68 0,70
9RP HOLPLQD DD FXP DP VSXV 3 GDU L GH H[HPSOX 3 FDUH DU
preVXSXQHF QXP UXOGHWXULWLDUVF GHDvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUHSUH XOELOHWHORUVFDGHLDUYHQLWXULOH
FUHVF5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHILQDOYRUFODVLILFDVFHQDULLOHDVWIHO
S 12 P(0,0,1,0,1,1) = 0,158
S 14 P(0,1,0,0,1,1) = 0,110
S 30 P(0,1,0,0,0,1) = 0,097 Nucleul (6 p ! 0,.5)S 01 P(1,1,1,1,1,1) = 0,092
S 60 P(0,0,1,0,0,0) = 0,070
:
S 33 P(1,1,1,0,1,0) = 0,057
: scenarii contrastante
S 48 P(0,0,0,1,0,1) = 0,029
:
S 18 P(0,1,1,1,0,1) = 0,017
S 63 P(1,0,0,0,0,0) = 0,014 scenarii posibile dar improbabile
S 53 P(1,1,0,1,0,0) = 0,004
S 36 P(0,0,1,1,1,0) = 0,0019RP FDOFXODDSRL PDWULFHD GHHODVWLFLWDWH SH FDUH R SUH]HQW P vQ WDE - 3. pentru o
YDULD LHDSUREDELOLW LORUp = 0,1.
Tab. 3.3. - 3. Matricea de elasticitate.
1 2 3 4 5 6 6~~1 - 0,12 - 0,24 - 0,47 - 0,23 - 0,54 1,60
2 0,4 - 1,1 (**) 0,24 (*) - 0,71 - 0,21 2,66
3 - 0,28 - 0,96 - 0,64 - 0,74 - 0,64 3,26
4 - 0,37 - 0,20(*) - 0,39 - 0,30 - 0,61 1,87
5 - 0,13(*) - 0,71 - 0,74 - 0,26 - 0,69 2,53
6 - 1,32(**) - 0,09(*) - 0,73 - 1,60(**) - 0,76 4,506~~ 2,50 2,08 3,20 3,21 2,74 2,69
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