afaceri in medii instabile modulul 1

8/9/2019 Afaceri in medii instabile Modulul 1

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AFACERI IN MEDIU INSTABIL

20142015

Prof. dr. Daniela Borisov

[email protected]

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Cuprins:

- Introducereconcepte, relevanta subiectului- Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza pentru

mediul intern/extern pentru o entitate economica

Evaluari ale competitivitatii macro.

Romania in strategia Europa 2020

- Teme de discutie:Banca Mondiala 3I

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Instabilitateconcepte asociate, simptome si

metode de analiza Concepte asociate (des)Crestere economica

Competitivitate

Criza

(Dez)Echilibru

Hazard

Incertitudine

Perturbatii

Predictabilitate/impredictabilitate

Risc Variabilitate

Volatilitate

Vulnerabilitate

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Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul economico-

social (1)

- viteze mai mari de desfurarea unor fenomene:Cresterea emisiilor de CO2,Epuizarea la nivel global a resursei de APA (de o anumita calitate)Intensificarea somajuluinoi segmente ale populatiei afectate majorReducerea ciclurilor de viata ale produselor /tehnologiilor /industriilorRitmuri mai rapide de consum a unor resurse naturale sau de inrautarire a unor conditii de mediu

- schimbri/ruperi/inversri de ritm pentru indicatori macroeconomici:indicatori ce exprima cresterea economicarata de crestere anuala a PIB

- schimbri de tendin (de exemplu, legi de cretereexponenial rata de penetrare atelefoniei mobile, subtiereacalsei de mijloc)

- dificultatea de a raspunde unor cerinte (de ex., generate ridicareaunor

standarde de calitate sau ale unei suprastructuri)- Romania - rate mici de absorbtie a fondurilor europene- Noi tipuri de riscuri economice, sociale, tehnologice .riscuri cibernetice

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Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul

economico - social (2)- instabilitate in dinamic ptr. diversi indicatori, volatilitate, oscilatii,amplitudini mai mari ntre limitele maxime iminime ale unui indicatorExemplu: oscilatiile cursului de schimb valutar ptr. Romania. Stabilitatea cursului de schimb este unul dintre criteriile de laMaastricht, de a caror indeplinire depinde adoptarea monedei europene de catre oricare stat membru al UE. Romania are caobiectiv intrarea in zona euro in 2014. Potrivit criteriilor de la Maastricht, moneda nationala poate fluctua intr-o banda devariatie de plus/minus 15%, variatie care reprezinta aprecierea sau deprecierea procentuala maxima fata de media ultimilordoi ani.

Incertitudinea genereazvolatilitatede ex., evoluiaindicelui BET-FI . Piaade capital are, prin definiie, un caractermai volatil dect altepiee(cea de mrfuri)

- dispersii mari fa de medie ex. exprimarea decalajelor, convergenta slaba fata demedia europeana

Incertitudine in crestere dificultatea de a face previziuni pe termen lung sauimpredictabilitate / complexitate crescuta formelor de desfurarea unor procese -de exemplu:- manifestarea unor ntrzieri,- apariiaunor noi modele sociale/de afaceri (in mediu virtual): publicitate online, forumuri ale clientilor, grupuri de lobby,retele sociale, triburi digitale- evideniereaunor legturinetradiionalede tip feed-back,- formarea de parteneriate inedite etc.;

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economico-social (3)

- ieireadin tipare tradiionaleEx: legea Pareto sau legea 20/80 - "80% din efecte sunt generate de 20% din cauze.Legeaa fost enuntata de Vilfredo Frederico Pareto(1848-1923) in legaturacu posesia unor terenuri in proportie de 80% de catre 20% din cei mai bogati oameni ai timpului; este folosita ca principiu al managementului 20% din

personal realizeaza 80% din rezultate, 20% din produsele vandute aduc 80% din cifra de afaceri, etc.-Mai ramane valabila Legea Pareto in economia digitala?Ex: Orase falimentateEx: superdatele, braindrainEx: noi forme de munca

- ndeprtareafade tendine(divergenafade o zon/regiune)Ex: digital divide, convergenta in UE-aparitia unor noi legilegea Moore, legea randamentelor in crestere pentru resursa informationalaLegea Moore - 1965, revista Electronics Magazine a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, in care acesta observa ca numarul de circuite integrate se vadubla in fiecare an, proces ce va fi insotit de o reducere pe masura a preturilor. Cunoscuta sub denumirea de "Legea lui Moore", aceasta observatiea stat la baza unei dezvoltari extraordinare a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore si-a revizuit observatia in 1975, pentru a adauga faptul canumarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaza la aproximativ doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a constituit baza pecare au fost create microprocesoare de catre o industrie a semiconductorilor in plin avant. Aceste "creiere ale computerelor", alaturi de alte tipuri

de circuite integrate, au facut posibila aparitia si dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile si a jocurilor video. Impact economic. Inafara acestei observatii cu privire la cresterea complexitatii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaza si o scadere a costurilor. Pe masurace componentele pe baza de siliciu castiga in performanta, pretul lor de productie scade. Microprocesoarele din ziua de azi conduc totul, de lajucarii la schimbarea luminilor semaforului. O carte postala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa dolari contine un microprocesor mai puternic decatcele mai rapide calculatoare mainframe produse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma.

- agravarea unor decalaje in timp/dispariti(regionale, de ex.) extremizarea saraciei severe,excluziune sociala

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economico-social (4)

- transformarea unor probleme economice n fenomene sociale:somajsaraciecrestere economica

- conditionarea unor surse de instabilitate din anumite zoneculturale sau sociale n efecte economice negative conflictereligioase/etnice, stramutari masive ale unor populatii, migratiiale lucratorilor

Tema de discutie:

- Cercuri virtuoase in cresterea economica/dezvoltarea umana

- Cercuri vicioase .

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Metode de analiz

Analiza SWOT (Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity,Threat)

Analiza SPIN (Situation, Problem, Implication,Need Pay Off)

Analiza STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical,Environmental and Political)

Analiza de impact CIA (Cross-impact analysis),TIA (Trend impact analysis)

Metode de tip analiza eficienei/eficacitii(analizacost-beneficiu, analiza risc-beneficiu, analiza cost-utilitate etc.)

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Raportul de avertisment privind potenialulde

criz- early warning

Conceptul a fost dezvoltat pentru situaiilede prevenire a conflictelor ide violenepescarlarg.

Recent, experiena din sud-estul Europei, mai ales din perspectiva UNDP, a impuslrgirea acestui concept. Crizele din aceast parte a lumii au fost provocate deproasta conducere a unor economii instabile, de incapacitatea statului de a furniza

bunuri publice de baz, cum ar fi meninerea ordinii i impunerea legii, deincapacitatea actorilor politici de a mpriechitabil resursele ntre diversele grupurietnice. Din moment ce aceste state nu au capacitatea de a analiza politicile, acesterapoarte ar trebui savertizeze asupra erorilor de politici publice isofere soluiide rezolvare a tensiunilor prin monitorizarea evoluiilor politice, sociale ieconomice, n special a celor care riscsdegenereze n situaiide criz.

Extinderea conceptului estejustificatide o altrealitate sud-est european: statele deaici sunt fie prea noi, fie prea slabe, astfel nct n aproape toate aceste riare locun proces de redefinire a rolului statului.

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Strategia Europa 2020

In prezent, Europa se confruntcuprovocristructurale majore - globalizarea, schimbrileclimatice i

mbtrnireapopulaiei. Criza economic imprim tuturor acestor probleme un caracter mult maipresant, fapt ce impune un rspunsmai hotrtimai coerent la nivel politic. Restabilirea stabilitiimacroeconomice i redirijarea finanelor publice ctre o cale durabil sunt eseniale pentrucretereaeconomiciocuparea foreide munc.

Pornind de la acest tablou socio-economic, Uniunea Euroepeana a trebuit s-idefineascdirecia ncareipropune sevolueze pnn anul 2020, avnd ca punct de plecare - ianuarie 2011, datlacare Agenda Lisabona 2000, va fi deja expirat.

3 mari formule de cretereeconomic, n decada urmatoare:

1. cretereeconomicinteligent(consolidarea cunoaterii,inovaie,educaie,societate digital);2. cretereeconomicdurabil(cretereaeficienein producieia competitivitii);3. cretere economic inclusiv (participare sporita pe pieele muncii, dobndirea de noi abiliti

profesionale idiminuarea srciei).

Noul plan strategic european iredefineste ambiiade a face din economia Europei cea maiperformantdinlume ipropune, n schimb, un model economico-social care srspundprovocriloractuale, cum suntglobalizarea accelerat,mbtrnireapopulaieiischimbrileclimatice.

Comisia Europeana propus cinci obiective principale, care ar trebui ndeplinitepnn 2020: 75% dinpopulaiacu vrsta cuprinsntre 20 i64 de ani ar trebui saibun loc de munc; 3% din PIB-ul UE ar trebui investit n cercetare-dezvoltare; ndeplinirea obiectivului 20/20/20 n materie de climienergie; rata abandonului colar timpuriu ar trebui redus sub nivelul de 10% i cel puin 40% din generaia

tnrar trebui saibstudii superiore; numrulpersoanelor ameninatede srciear trebui redus cu 20 de milioane.

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Pentru cele cinci obiective propuse de CE in noua strategie, optiunile Romaniei pot fi schitate astfel:Rata de ocupare a populatiei cu varsta intre 20 si 64 de animinimum 75 %.In stabilirea obiectivelorcomplementare, tinerii trebuie vizati atat din perspectiva participarii lor la educatie si formare, cat si din perspectivaevitarii riscului de excluziune sociala.

Nivelul investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare 3% din PIB-ul UE. Mentinerea pentru 2020 a obiectivului de3% ar putea fi realista pentru unele SM, dar pentru Romania va reprezenta o serioasa provocare, chiar presiune, cu

atat mai mult cu cat obiectivele fixate in contextul strategiei Europa 2020 sunt interconectate. In cazul Romaniei, laconstrangerile de natura bugetara si financiara se adauga dificultatile generate de o slaba capacitate de absorbtie afondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii (atat cele de la bugetul de stat, conform Planului national de cercetare

dezvoltare si inovare, cat si din sursele comunitare).Atingerea obiectivului 20/20/20(sau 30/20/20, in cazul respectarii anumitor conditii) referitor la schimbarileclimatice si energie. Romania nu intrevede dificultati in atingerea obiectivului de 20% aferent surselor regenerabile deenergie (RES) si considera ca potentialul national, sistemul de promovare al RES si aplicarea prevederilor Directivei

2009/28/CE vor avea contributii importante in acest sens. In ceea ce priveste eficienta energetica, obiectivul de 20%este indicativ si este importanta analizarea oportunitatii stabilirii de obiective obligatorii. Romania are in vederenecesitatea mentinerii perspective de crestere a consumului de energie pentru relansarea economica scontata.Referitor la emisiile de gaze cu efect de sera, Romania considera fundamentala respectarea deciziei ConsiliuluiEuropean din decembrie 2009 privind efectuarea de catre COM a evaluarii compatibilitatii obiectivelor asumate detarile terte, pentru a asigura un level playing field global pentru standardele de mediu. Numai in baza acesteievaluari poate fi avuta in vedere posibilitatea modificarii angajamentului UE de reducere a emisiilor de gaze cu efectde sera cu 30 % pana in 2020.

Rata abandonului scolar timpuriu situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa sustina un obiectiv nationalprea ambitios dar, prin intensificarea eforturilor de coordonare a politicilor educationale cu cele sociale, este posibilascaderea semnificativa a acestui indicator.

Reducerea cu 20 de milioane a cetatenilor europeni amenintati de saracie.Realizarea acestui obiectiv estedificila chiar la nivelul UE, avand in vedere conditiile economice specific SM.Asadar, Romania impartaseste abordarea COM cu privire la modul in care se pot asigura perspective mai bune pentrueconomia UE si sustine asigurarea convergentei eforturilor comunitare si ale SM in efortul comun de a-si depasi

actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare a competitivitatii europene pentru urmatorul deceniu.


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Europa 2020accent pe cunoastere

Cresterea economica bazata pe cunoastere: noua strategie trebuie sa ofere conditii cadru

adecvate pentru inovare si cercetare, prin oferirea de stimulente si punerea in comun a resurselorpublice si private.

Obiectivele pentru anul 2020 vor putea fi atinse numai intr-un Spatiu European al Cercetarii eficient,eficace si cu finantare adecvata. Politicile de educatie vor trebui reformate astfel incat randamentullor sa creasca si sa conduca la combaterea excluziunii sociale si a saraciei.

Educatia si cercetarea, inovarea si creativitatea sunt principalele prioritati

pentru realizarea societatii europene bazata pe cunoastere. Trebuie intreprinsemasuri pentru crearea unei veritabile piete unice online pentru ca beneficiile economiei digitale safie folosite la potentialul lor maxim.

Dezvoltarea competentelor cetatenilor in cadrul unor societati care favorizeaza incluziunea:Beneficiile economiei bazate pe cunoastere depind de contributia directa a fortei de munca,competentele acesteia constituind un element central pentru cresterea economica europeana.

Flexicuritatea va ocupa un loc central in urmatorul deceniu, fiind instrumentul care poate raspundeadecvat provocarilor impuse de noi locuri de munca care necesita competente noi. Mobilitateafortei de munca trebuie sa contribuie la o mai buna corelare a cererii si ofertei pe piata muncii, darsi la asigurarea necesarului de noi competente.

Intarirea culturii antreprenoriale, cu accent pe o atitudine pozitiva in

asumarea riscurilor si a capacitatii de inovare reprezinta un instrument care

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EU 27

Europe 2020a strategy for jobs andsmart, sustainable and inclusivegrowth, is based on five EUheadline targets which arecurrently measured by eight

headline indicators.

Sursa:http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/europe_2020_indicators/headline_indicators

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Romania

2014

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Exemplificare: Disparitati regionalebaza in anul

2008 (2)Indici de disparitate PIB/locuitor - calculai conform metodologiei Institutului

Naionalde Statistic,prin raportarea nivelului regional la nivelul naional.Sursa: Proieciaprincipalilor indicatori economicosociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pnn 2016, Comisia Nationala de

Prognoza

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Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2017


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Exemplificare: Disparitati regionale (2)

Decalaje regionale -Fiecare regiune fade regiunea Vest (regiunea BucuretiIlfov nu a fostluat ca baz - outlier), aflat pe locul doi din punct de vedere al dezvoltrii

economice pe ntreagaperioad.Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de

Prognoza

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Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali

n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2017, Comisia Nationala

de Prognoza


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EUROSTAT - Regional gross domestic product (PPS perinhabitant), by NUTS 2 regionsROMANIA

1820 21

2224 23

25 2629 30 29

56 5759

63

68

77

84

92

117111 111

53

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nord-Vest Centru Nord-Est Sud-Est Sud-Muntenia Bucuresti-Ilfov Sud-VestOltenia Vest 17

GDP (gross domestic product) is an indicator of the output of a country or a region. It reflects the total value of all goods and services produced less the value ofgoods and services used for intermediate consumption in their production. Expressing GDP in PPS (purchasing power standards) eliminates differences in pricelevels between countries. Calculations on a per inhabitant basis allow for the comparison of economies and regions significantly different in absolute size. GDP perinhabitant in PPS is the key variable for determining the eligibility of NUTS 2 regions in the framework of the European Union's structural policy. Every

region in the EU is covered by cohesion policy: however, most structural funds are directed to NUTS level 2 regions whose GDP per inhabitant is less than 75 % ofthe EU27 average (on the basis of a three-year average). Source: Eurostat (tgs00006)


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Evaluari ale competitivitatii

Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015. Modele teoretice preluate inmetodologiile de evaluare Diamantul Porter, GlobalEntrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)

IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook. The 2013-2050 Roadmap

Rapoartele de competitivitateEvaluarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale -Knowledge Assessment methodology - KAM:

www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment

www.worldbank.org/kam

TheKnowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations,Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October19, 2005

Source: Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies, Knowledge AssessmentMethodology and Knowledge Economy Index

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http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment


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Raportul asupra competitivitatii in lume in viziunea Forumului

Economic Mondial (WEF - World Economic Forum) WEF

Global Competitiveness Reporteditia 2014-2015

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Evaluari ale competitivitatiiForumul Economic

Mondial (WEF)

Sursa: The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, World Economic Forum; autori: Michael E. Porter,Harvard University; Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum

Competi ti veness is defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the levelof productivity of a country;

Productivity of an economy - is measured by the value of goods and services produced per unit ofthe nationshuman, capital, and natural resources. Productivity depends both on the value of a

nationsproducts and services, measured by the prices they can command in open markets, andthe efficiency with which they can be produced.

The level of productivity

- sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy; more competitiveeconomies tend to be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.

- determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy.Wealth is actually created by the productivity with which a nation can utilize its human, capital,

and natural resources to produce goods and services. Productivity ultimately depends on themicroeconomic capability of the economy, rooted in the sophistication of companies (both localand subsidiaries of multinationals), the quality of the national business environment, and theexternalities arising from the presence of clusters of related and supporting industries.

Unless microeconomic capabilities improve, sustainable improvements in prosperity will not occur.

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Definitie - concepte

Competitivitatea- se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent de

productivitate al unei tri.

- Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra sau

ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai des vazuta

din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale => capacitatea unei

natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului concurentei pe pieteleinternationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul de trai al populatiei

- determinatt nivelul de bunstareal unei economii la un moment dat, ct ipotenialulde

creterea acesteia in viitor.

Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii bazate pe

cunoaterereprezintunul dintre factorii cheie ai creteriicompetitivitii unei economii.

In timp, dezvoltarea conceptuluiEconomitiiclasici au identificat patru factori de producie: pmntul, capitalul, resursele naturale iforade munc(Adam Smith, 1776An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Wealth of Nations);

D. Ricardo (1817) - cu formularea legii avantajului comparativ Principles of Political Economy and Taxation Economitii marxiti au subliniat impactul mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvoltrii economice (K. Marx 1867Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)

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In timp abordarea conceptului (cont.)

Weber, M., - a subliniat relaia ntre valori, credine religioase i performana economic anaiunilor(Ethic of Protestanism and the Spirit of Capitalism,1905)

Schumpeter, J., - a relevat rolul ntreprinztorului n asigurarea competitivitii (Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy,1942)

Sloan, A., iDrucker, P. au elaborat pe tema recunoaterii managementului ca factor cheie dedeterminare a competitivitii (Sloan, S. My Years at General Motors 1963; Drucker, P., The

Age of Discontinuity1969);

R. Solow (laureat Nobel ptr. Economie, 1987) a subliniat importana educaiei, a inovriitehnologice ia elementelor de know-how studiind economia americanpe deceniile urmtoarecelui de al doilea rzboi mondial (Solow, R., Technical Change and the Aggregate ProductionFunction, 1957);

Romer, P., Negroponte, N., - pentru definirea cunotinelor ca factor de competitivitate(Negroponte, N.,Being Digital- 1995)

Porter, M., - a integrat aceste idei ntr-o manier sistematic - construind Diamantul decompetitivitate(Porter, M., The Competitive Advantage of Nations1990)

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Evaluari ale competitivitatiiThe microeconomic business

environment - the mechanisms of influence (Porters Model)

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major determinants for

competitiveness (12 dimensions)

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Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

The concept of competitiveness

involves static and dynamiccomponents.Although the productivity of a countrydetermines its ability to sustain a highlevel of income, it is also one of thecentral determinants of its returns on

investment, which is one of the keyfactors explaining an economysgrowth potential.


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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major determinants for

competitiveness (12 dimensions)

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Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

The concept of competitiveness

involves static and dynamiccomponents.Although the productivity of a countrydetermines its ability to sustain a highlevel of income, it is also one of thecentral determinants of its returns on

investment, which is one of the keyfactors explaining an economysgrowth potential.


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Romania

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Romania - The most problematic factors for doing business

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IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK -Anuarul competitivitatii globale 2014

http://www.imd.org/

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The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2014
http://www.imd.org/news/World-Competitiveness-2013.cfmhttp://www.imd.org/news/World-Competitiveness-2013.cfm


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The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2014

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The fundamentals on IMDs competitivenessCompetitiveness analyzes how nations and enterprises

manage the totality of their competencies to achieve

prosperity or profit.

Competitiveness of Nations is a field of Economic theory,

which analyses the facts and policies that shape the

ability of a nation to create and maintain an

environment that sustains more value creation for

its enterprises and more prosperity for its people.

Is one of the most powerful concepts in modern economic

thinking. One of its key contributions to classical

economic theories is that competitiveness encompasses

the economic consequences of non-economic issues,

such as education, sciences, political stability or value

systems. It is precisely because it is a multifaceted

concept that it has lead to a proliferation of definitions.

The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) looks at the

relationship between a countrys national environment(where the State plays a key role) and the wealth creation

process (assumed by enterprises and individuals). The

WCY focuses on the outcome of the interaction of four

competitiveness factors, which generally define a

countrys national environment: Economic Performance,

Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and

Infrastructure.

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4 dimensions shape the countrys competitivenessenvironment. They are the result of tradition, historyor value systems and are so deeply rooted in the

modusoperandiof a country that, in most cases, theyare not clearly stated or defined. Countries managetheir environment according to 4 fundamental forces:Attractiveness vs. Aggressiveness

Proximity vs. Globality

Assets vs. Processes

Individual Risk Taking vs. Social Cohesiveness.


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The concept of competitiveness - four levels: Efficiency,

Choice, Resources and Objectives

is primarily understood as being better than others. Productivityis thus a key determinant to such efficiency; alsoimplies a strategic choice in identifying those domains where an activity represents a unique added value. Thetheory of comparative advantage (David Ricardo, 1819) analyses such dilemmas. Competitiveness means makingchoices about where the potential added value in international markets is bigger than that of competitors.entails the mobilization of a variety of resources to implement such choices. These resources are drawn fromgovernment, infrastructure, technology,finance, education, etc. Countries compete internationally to have access to and to manage these resources.

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a mapping process that helps countries

benchmark their competitiveness by mobilizing such resources.a) Companies focus on sustained profitability, which is the ability to generate an appropriate return on capital over a

long period of time. This concept is well-covered by economic analysis and is explained by the field ofcompetitive strategy.

b) Nations thrive on prosperity, a concept that we define as economicgrowthplus somethingelsethat is lesseconomic and measurable. The latter goal evolves with the economic and social development of a country: apoorer nation may emphasize access to food and shelter for its population, a more advanced economy maygive priority to environmental protection or education. In both cases however, economic growth remains a

prerequisite, a condition that is necessary but not sufficient.c) Individuals are motivated by increases in their standard of living and probably by something more ideological such

as the pursuit of happiness as described in the US Declaration of Independence (1776). Several modelsattempt to include such concepts in economic analysis (for example, the Commission on the Measurement ofEconomic Performance and Social Progress sponsored by the French state and which includes Nobel laureatesJoseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen.)

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World Competitiveness Yearbook - methodology

The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) ranks and analyzes the ability of nations to create and maintain an environment in which

enterprises can compete. It means that we assume that wealth creation takes place primarily at enterprise level (whether private or

state owned) - this field of research is called: "competitiveness of enterprises. However, enterprises operate in a national

environment which enhances or hinders their ability to compete domestically or internationally - this field of research is called:"competitiveness of nations" and is covered by the WCY.

Based on analysis made by leading scholars and by our own research and experience, the methodology of the WCY thus divides the

national environment into four main factors: Economic Performance, Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and Infrastructure.

In turn, each of these factors is divided into 5 sub-factors which highlight every facet of the areas analyzed.

Altogether, the WCY features 20 such sub-factors. These 20 sub-factors comprise more than 300 criteria, although each sub-factor does

not necessarily have the same number of criteria (for example, it takes more criteria to assess Education than to evaluate Prices).

Each sub-factor, independently of the number of criteria it contains, has the same weight in the overall consolidation of results,

which is 5% (20x5 =100).

Criteria can be hard data, which analyzes competitiveness as it can be measured (e.g. GDP) or soft data, which analyzescompetitiveness as it can be perceived (e.g. Availability of competent managers). Hard criteria represent a weight of 2/3 in the

overall ranking, whereas the survey data represent a weight of 1/3. In addition, some criteria are for background information only,

which means that they are not used in calculating the overall competitiveness ranking (e.g. Population under 15).

Finally, aggregating the results of the 20 sub-factors makes the total consolidation, which leads to the overall ranking of the WCY.

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C i i P i 1997 2013


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Competitiveness Perspective 1997-2013

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The vertical axis on the left indicates the 2013 ranking and the name of the country. The blue 2013 diagonal line from top to bottomindicates the same ranking, which also intersects with the axis below. In addition, the horizontal axis allows to read the best and worstrankings over time.

Each countrys bar highlights on the left the worst competitiveness ranking and its date and on the right thebest ranking and its date.

The length of the bar indicatesthe spread between the two; a long bar can mean dynamism and/or volatilitya shorter bar meaningstability/and or inertia.


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Tema de discutie: IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013, 20142050

The CompetitivenessRoadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the world

competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes - degree of impact and

timescale - to provide a clear mentalmapof the environment in which nations and companies will operate.

Exemple:

1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budgetdeficits remain high: Country estimates for 2013

range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area. Unpopular spending cuts

will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down economic recovery everywhere.

2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly fragmented:

some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront robust growth such

as China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are threatened by inflation, such as

India, Russia and Turkey.

3. Unemployment becomes massive25 million people losetheir jobs in the OECD region and the average jobless

rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record highs, above 23% in Europe

and a staggering 52% in Spain.

4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some institutions,

such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become more attractive for

higher returns.

5. Inflation is backbut not everywhereThe economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in commodity prices

and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets. Some governments even

welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the nominal value of the debt.

6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial markets. The Euro

stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds to diversify their holdings.

The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to develop domestic demand.

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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 20132050 Exemple (2)7. Global debt explodesThe average G20 government debt increases from 78% of GDP to 100% and above. The US national

debt now surpasses $21 trillion. Sub-sovereign debt at regional and city level becomes critical in the US but also in

Spain, and even Germany.

8. Economic nationalism on the rise Trade protectionism increases as it is linked to national stimulus plans (e.g. buynationalclauses). New protectionist measures appear that are linked to financial regulations, environmental standards,

corporate governance, etc.

15. Consumers react differently Industrialized nations are characterized by a replacement economy where purchases

replace existing products while emerging nations are in a first-buy economy stage where purchases introduce new

products into households. In other words, an industrialized economy is defined by I want itversus one defined by I

need it. Slower growth can be expected as saturation threatens replacement economies.

16. Food commodities prices higher Food commodities have seen their prices increase by over 40% since the end of the

recession. Despite a temporary slowdown due to a weaker than expected recovery, prices will remain high. An emergingmiddle class is changing its eating habits and greater demand will push prices up again. For example, China is moving

away from a rice-only diet. In a decade it has increased its milk consumption seven-fold, poultry by 60%, beef by 30%

and wheat by 25%.

17. State capitalism is fashionable Governments are moving from being stakeholders to being shareholders of their

economies. State interventions increase and national leaders consider it a priority to defend and develop national

champions. As a consequence, government spending now represents on average 50% of the GDP in advanced

economies. 80% of the stock market capitalization in Shanghai is done by state-backed companies.

24. More managers needed everywhere - More managers are required in emerging powers. India, China, Russia, Brazil andthe Gulf region increasingly focus on management and the creation of business schools, beyond science and engineering

education. Strategy, finance and marketing skills are now priorities for ensuring the continuous expansion of local

enterprises in a global environment.

25. A new environmental strategy for companiesClimate change and energy security is clearly a priority for public opinion.

Governments and companies enhance their visibility on environmental issues and integrate an environmental dimension

into their strategy. Companies that fail to do so will not attract the best talents in the younger generation, who are very

sensitive to this issue.

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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 20132050 Exemple (3)

26. Life sciences and environment attract massive investments - Life sciences, as the population becomes older

(40,000 centenarians in Britain in 2030), and environmental technology, as the world becomes hotter (+ 0.6C

in 20 years), will attract massive investments. Innovation proliferates in these two areas of knowledge.Wellness, in addition to curing existing diseases, becomes a priority for ageing populations.

27. Intellectual property vs. open systems - The intellectual property debate encapsulates two conceptions of world

business: On the one hand the respect for innovation and invention and on the other hand the thrust for a

more open and collaborative society where information is widely shared. Social network systems flourish and

challenge government-controlled information in some parts of the world.

28. From Service to Re-industrialization Service competitiveness and the ability to integrate and manage a global

business model were at the core of the competitiveness of Europe and the US. However both regions have lost20% of their industry in 20 years, thus creating a higher level of permanent unemployment. Companies

reassess extreme outsourcing and delocalization. Re-shoring and re-industrialization become an economic

and political priority. There is no competitiveness without a sound manufacturing base.

29. Labor cost differences shrink - The difference in labor costs around the world is drastically reduced as nations

develop. A range from 1 to 20 today is reduced to 1 to 5 as purchasing power around the world converges.

30. Productivity is harmonized worldwide - Productivity is harmonized around world operations as companies

become truly global and widely diffuse the same technology and processes. The value chain is managed at the

global level. The nationality of companies matters less and less. The product madein the worldis born!32. From cheap manpower to cheap brainpower -The world moves from a competitiveness model based on cheap

manpower to one based on cheap brainpower. In total, India, China and Russia have 14 million university

students, as many as the US. These students quickly become young professionals eager for success, who are

relatively affordable and highly motivated. Through technology, these brains can be accessed from all over the

world.

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IMD - The Competitiveness Roadmap 20132050 Exemple (4)

33. Urbanization means congestion - The urbanization of the world economy increases pressure on economic and social

infrastructure (roads, water, hospitals, etc.), the environment and also increases social problems (rural migration to cities).

In 2030, 60% of the world population lives in cities. 40 mega regions account for two third of the worldsGDP and 85% of

the technology. As a drawback, congestion becomes a major issue everywhere.

35. From collective to individual value systems - The value system of societies in Asia gradually evolves from one based on

collective values (such as hard work and national pride) to one based on individual values (such as work-life balance),

much closer to the US and European value systems.

36. A new business model for the poor - A new business model emerges for the worldspoorest (such as in Africa or the

Indian subcontinent). Products are manufactured and sold at a fraction of the price charged elsewhere, and with minimal

functionalities. Examples: the $10 phone, $100 PC or $2,500 motor vehicle and services such as micro-finance and mobile

phone financial transactions.37. China, India, Brazil and Russia as technological powers - China, India and Russia regain their age-old status as

technological powers. Foreign companies no longer hesitate to transfer research centers to these countries that have a

long tradition of excellence in science and innovation.

38. Retirement age increases - The pension systems in Europe and Japan are increasingly at risk. One-third of the

population is now over 60 years old; 10% is older than 80! Retirement gets closer to 70 and fluctuates depending on

the industry sector and the hardship of work. Some white-collar pension systems now have to deal with an increasing

number of centenarians. The financial crisis has reduced accumulated wealth and employees are forced to retire later.

39. Society capitalismAfter a period of enterprisecapitalismaimed at shareholder value, and one of statecapitalismbased on local value, a period emerges focusing on society capitalism which redefines the role of enterprises as

actors to solve wider societal issues such as the environment, sustainable development, poverty, etc.

42. Remoteness becomes irrelevant - The disappearance of most trade and investment barriers, the efficiency of the

international logistics system (roads, shipping, trains and air freight) and the pervasiveness of communications technology

give every single nation and enterprise instant access to world markets and unlimited opportunities.

43. The technological divide disappears - The technological divide disappears because of the development of a worldwide

communications infrastructure and the proliferation of cheap technological products for the poor.

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Tema de discutie

KAM Banca Mondiala

The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM)

The KAM consists of 148 structural and qualitative variables for 146

countries to measure their performance on the 4 Knowledge Economy(KE) pillars: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime, Education,Innovation, and Information and Communications Technologies.Variables are normalized on a scale of 0 to 10 relative to other countries inthe comparison group. The KAM also derives a countrys overallKnowledge Economy Index (KEI) andKnowledge Index (KI).

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Economia cunoasterii si performanta economicaCorelatia dintre acumularea de cunoastere (masurata de KEI) si nivelul de dezvoltare economica(PIB/capita) este estimat prin coeficientul de determinare de 87%.

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Evaluarea KAM ptr. Romania (basic scoreboard)

Valori reale 2012

Valori normalizate

2012

Valori reale 1995 Valori normalizate

1995

Bariere tarifare si netarifare, 2011 87.6 9.3 79 9.38

Calitatea reglementarii, 2009 0.62 6.92 -0.23 2.94

Legislatie, 2009 0.1 5.96 0.01 5.56

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.) 2009 24.76 6.4 0.48 3.56

Nr. de articole in reviste de Stiinta si Inginerie / Mil. Pers, 2007 58.12 6.41 29.89 6

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil. Pers, medie 2005-2009 0.45 5.62 0.1 5.1

Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare, 2010 10.37 7.72 9.61 8.35

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul mediu, 2009 93.5 6.55 77.9 6.25

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul superior, 2009 67.07 8.37 18.29 5.31

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers, 2009 1,430,00 6.62 130 5.72

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008 190 6.1 10 5.32

Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000 pers, 2009 360 5.86 0 7.45

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Evaluarea Bancii Mondiale

KAMRomania in 2012 si in 1995

9.3

6.92

5.96

6.4

6.41

5.62

7.72

6.55

8.37

6.62

6.1

5.86

01234

56789

10Bariere tarifare si netarifare, 2011

Calitatea reglementarii, 2009

Legislatie, 2009

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.)2009

Nr de articole in reviste de Stiinta siInginerie / Mil. Pers, 2007

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil.Pers, medie 2005-2009

Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare,2010

Rata bruta de inmatriculare ininvatamantul mediu, 2009

Rata bruta de inmatriculare ininvatamantul superior, 2009

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers,2009

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008

Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000pers, 2009

2012 1995AIMI 2014 - 2015 48


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KEI in dinamica 1995-2012

most recent 1995

Albania 4.53 4.33

Uzbekistan 3.14 4.78

Australia 8.88 9.27

Barbados 7.18 6.87

Benin 1.88 2.83

Bulgaria 6.8 6.81

China 4.37 3.99El Salvador 4.17 4.26

Estonia 8.4 7.94

France 8.21 8.67

Kuwait 5.33 5.71

Lesotho 1.95 3.11

United States 8.77 9.53

Mongolia 4.42 4.08

Myanmar 0.96 2.23

Romania 6.82 5.91

Russian Federation 5.78 5.67

Slovak Republic 7.64 7.22

Sweden 9.43 9.45

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KEI in dinamica

RO 5,91; 6,82

Uzbekistan

4,78; 3,14

Estonia

7,94; 8,4

y = 1.0781x - 0.6923

R2= 0.9438

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12KEI 1995

KEI2012

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Cadrul economic 2012 Romania

7.68

4.68

3.28

4.51

7.29

4.35

5.15

7.52

5.39

4.04

6.92

5.96

4.86

6.3

6.37

5.34

5.76

9.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Gr. Capital F ormation as % of GDP, 2005-2009

Trade as % of GDP, 2009

Tariff & Nontariff Barriers, 2011

Soundness of Banks (1-7), 2010

Exports of Goods and Services as % of GDP, 20

Interest Rate Spread, 2009

Intensity of Local Competition (1-7), 2010

Dom estic Credit to Private Sector as % of GDP, 2009

Cost to Register a Bu siness as % of GNI Per Capita, 2011

Days to Start a Business, 2011

Cost to Enforce a Co ntract (% of Debt), 2011

Regulatory Quality, 2009

Rule of L aw, 2009

Government Effectiveness, 2009

Voice and Accountabili ty, 2009

Political Stability, 2009

Control of Corruption, 2009

Press Freedom (1-100), 2010

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d di i di l l 3


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Tema de discutie - Banca Mondiala pus punctul pe 3

I": INOVARE, INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE - Afacerile detranziiedin Romnia, caracterizate prin "nvareiexperimentare"

In perioada de tranziie,mediul de afaceri din Romnia a fost orientat ctreexperimentare invare,iar elementele ce au impulsionat competitivitatea au fost reprezentate de intrrile i ieirile defirme de pepia,potrivit unui studiu eliberat de Banca Mondial(BM).

Oficialii BM au publicat un studiul "Inovare, incluziune iintegrare: De la tranziiela convergenn Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic", ce include concluziile Bncii Mondialereferitoare la perioada de tranziie a rilor din Europa de Est i fostul bloc sovietic, precum isugestii legate de msurilece vor trebui sfie luate de aceste state odatcu finalizarea procesului

de tranziie(iunie 2008).Printre concluziile la care au ajuns analitiiBM se numrcretereaproductivitii,consideratcafiind singura cale viabilctreo prosperitate de durat,existena"n aspecte fundamentaleale mediului de afaceri precum concurena i finanarea, care determin comportamentulfirmelor" a unui proces de maturizare iconvergenn direciacelor existente n economiilede pia dezvoltate din Europa Occidental, precum i creterea slab aocuprii pretutindeni, reflectnd interaciunea dintre creterea numrului de locuri demunc n noile firme private care au putut ocupa nie de pia inexistente n economia

centralizat planificat,ireducerea acestuia n ntreprinderile de stat iprivatizate.Banca Mondial susine faptul c "rile din Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic se

confrunt acum cu o a treia tranziie - mbtrnirea populaiei lor, care va ncetini ritmulcreterii economice dac numrul participanilor la fora de munc nu se va mri, dacresursele nu vor fi mai eficient utilizate i dac sistemele de pensii i sntate nu vor fireformate pentru a nu deveni surse de acute presiuni fiscale".

B M di l l 3 I" INOVARE


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Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3 I": INOVARE,

INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE - Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia,caracterizate prin "nvareiexperimentare(cont.)

Revenind la situaiaromnilor n acest context, analitiiBnciiMondiale au sesizat "productivitatea sczutafirmelor nou intrate pe pian Ungaria iRomnia, comparativ cu cele deja existente". Mai mult dectatt, aceasta este urmatde "o inversare a situaiein circa doi ani de la nceperea activitii",fapt ce "poatesemnala un mediu de afaceri orientat ctrenvareiexperimentare.

Totodat, n cazul Romniei, datele incluse n raportul BM aratcn primul an de la nceperea activitiifirmele aveau o pierdere de productivitate de peste 30%, pentru ca n doi ani de la intrarea pe pias

obinun ctigde circa 20%. Conform statisticilor, profitul se meninearelativ constantncdoi ani,

pentru ca ulterior, la apteani de la intrarea pe pia,companiile saibun ctigde productivitatecu puinpeste 10%. Rata de supravieuirea noilor afaceri depea80% pentru primii doi ani, pentru

a ajunge la circa 70% n primii patru ani de la intrarea pe piaadin Romnia a unei firme. Acelai

raport arat c firmele cu "via" de 7 ani aveau cota de supravieuire de doar aproximativ 60%(raportul "Inovaie,incluziune iinovare" vizeazperioada 1993-2005).

Firmele au fost foratesgseascmetode de supravieuire. n sprijinul ideilor menionateanterior, studiul

subliniazfaptul c"n Romnia iUcraina, ratele de supravieuirepentru primii patru ani erau relativasemntoare,de circa 70%. Nou intraierau cu aproximativ 30% mai puinproductivi n Romnia,

comparativ cu firmele existente, n timp ce n Ucraina erau cu 30% mai productivi".Raportul BM aratcn timpul procesului de tranziiede la o economie centralizatla una depia,companiile au fost forates

gseascdiverse metode noi de a rezista pepia. n cazul celor ce nu au reuitsse adapteze n perioada menionatau ieitde pepia,pe cnd firmele care au continuat activitatea au identificat noi metode de supravieuire,un exemplu elocvent fiindrealocarea resurselor. Astfel, ideea c intrrile i ieirile de pe pia au contribuit, n statele din regiune, la cretereacompetitivitii mediului de afaceri devine perfect valabil

afaceri in medii instabile modulul 1

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