metode cantitative de identificare a hazardelor si evaluarea riscului - daniloni marcel

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    UNIVERSITATEA DE TIIN E AGRICOLE I MEDICIN VETERINAR REGELE MIHAI I A BANATULUI DIN TIMI OARA

    METODE CANTITATIVE PENTRU IDENTIFICAREAHAZARDELOR I EVALUAREA RISCURILOR

    Coordonator: Studnt:

    !L!dr!"n#! Bordan D$%"na Dan"&on" Mar'&( PCM )

    TIMI OARA

    *+),

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    CUPRINS

    I! Introdu'r

    II! C&a$"-"'ara .a/ard&or

    III! Moda&"t01" d a2ordar a .a/ard&or

    IV! E3a&uara .a/ard&or

    V! E3a&uara r"$'u&u"

    VI! Dtr4"nara 'ant"tat"30

    VII! B"2&"o#ra-"

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    I! Introdu'r

    Ha/ardu& nu $t un -no4n 5nt64%&0tor 7" n"'" "4%rd"'t"2"&( '" doar 4an"-$tara 7"'on$'"n1& $a& $unt( 5n #nra&( d"-"'"& d %ro#no/at 7" 'ontro&at!

    Stud""& 'u %r"3"r &a .a/ard& natura& " t.no&o#"' %r$u%un ana&"/a a$%'t&or-"/"' a& -no4n&or %r"n 'o&'tara d 4atr"a&( "ntr%rtara d "n-or4a1"" to%o#ra-"'(#o&o#"'( ."dro&o#"'( '&"4at"' " $o'"o8'ono4"' %ntru a o-r" $t"4ara 4a#n"tud"n"" " a %ro2a2"&"t01"" t4%ora& " $%a1"a&!

    9ntru'6t '& 4a" 4u&t .a/ard natura& 7" antro%"' %ot -" %r30/ut( "ar ara&& %'ar & a-'ta/0 a'$ta %ot -" dtr4"nat( $ %un tot 4a" 4u&t a''nt % %r3n"ra 7"&"4"tara -'t&or .a/ard&or( to1" a'tor"" "4%&"'a1" %ut6ndu8$ %r#0t" %ntru a r0$%und '6t4a" 2"n a'$tor %ro3o'0r"( %un6nd &a %un't o %&an"-"'ar %r8d/a$tru!

    Rdu'ra .a/ard&or tr2u" $0 %r4"t0 &uara d d'"/"" 5n 2a/a "n-ro4a1""&or#nra& " a &o'a&"/0r"" &4nt&or %u$ 'u %r"3"r &a a4n"n10r"( r"$'ur" " 3u&nra2"&"tat! Rdu'ra 5n'% %r"n 'on t"nt"/ara "nd"3"dua&0 " a'1"un! A'1"un" "n-or4at"3 d rdu'r a r"$'u&u" %r4"t %r$oan&or " -a4"&""&or $0 r/"$t 4a" 2"n $au $0 $ ada%t/ &a -'t&.a/ard&or natura& " t.no&o#"'!

    HAZARDUL ; Un -no4n %r"'u&o$( o $u2$tan10( a't"3"t01" u4an $au 'ond"1""&

    'ar %ot du' &a %"rdr" d 3"1" o4n t"( r0n"r" $au a&t -'t

    a$u%ra $0n0t01""( %a#u2 4atr"a&( %"rdra 4"

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    Teoria hazardelor

    Un .a/ard $t 'o4%u$ d"n tr" &4nt d 2a/0:

    )! E&4ntu& %r"'u&o$ =EP $t $ur$a d 2a/0 a %r"'o&u&u" 'ar 'ra/0 .a/ardu&( 'u4 ar -" o $ur$0d nr#" %r"'u&oa$0 =%&o/"3" t'! -o&o$"t0 5n $"$t4!

    *! M'an"$4u& d "n"1"r =MI $t 3n"4ntu& d'&an7ator $au "n"1"ator 'ar 'au/a/0 %rodu'ra.a/ardu&u"! Cu a&t 'u3"nt 4'an"$4u& d "n"1"r tran$-or40 .a/ardu& d"ntr8o $tar d %a$"30 5n $tara't"30 5n -or40 d "n'"dnt =a3ar"!

    ! "nt0 7" a4n"n1ar =TA $t %r$oana( 2unu& $au o2"'tu& 'ar $t 3u&nra2"&=0 &a r0n"rdaun07" d$'r" $3r"tata "n'"dntu&u"( r/u&tatu& "n'"dntu&u" 'u 'on$'"n1& a7t%tat!

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    Prin reducerea probabilitii MI se poate reduce probabilitatea incidentului, iar prin reducerea

    unui element din EP sau T/A se reduce severitatea incidentului!

    Accidente tehnologice istorice:

    F&"2orou#.( U =)> %&o/" d '"'&o.an(

    S3$o( Ita&"a =)>, 4"$" d d"o"n0(

    B.o%a&( Ind"a =)>J 4"$" d 4t"&8"/o'"anat(

    Da@ar( Sn#a& =)>>* 4"$" d a4on"a' &"'."d(

    La.or( Pa@"$tan =)>>, 4"$" d '&or &"'."d(

    Ba"a Mar( Ro46n"a =*+++ 4"$" d '"anur"(

    Tou&ou$( Fran1a =*++) %&o/" d a/otat d a4on"u

    A''"dntu& d &a S3$o $8a %rodu$ &a o 5ntr%r"ndr d"n do4n"u& "ndu$tr"" '."4"'(a36nd 'a o2"'t d a't"3"tat %rodu'ra %$t"'"d&or 7" "r2"'"d&or! P$t ,++ d %r$oan au-o$t 3a'uat d"n 'a$& &or 7" 4a" 4u&t d *!+++ au -o$t tratat 5n ur4a "nto"'0r"" 'u d"o"n0!

    Ca r/u&tat a& a'$tu" 3n"4nt( 5n anu& )>J*( a -o$t ado%tat0 D"r't"3a Con$"&"u&u" nr!JKK+)CEE %r"3"nd a''"dnt& 4a>,( a -o$t ado%tat0 D"r't"3a nr! >,J*CE %r"3"nd 'ontro&u&a''"dnt&or 4a

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    ategorii de activiti ce intr sub incidena !irectivei:

    Pr3dr"& $ a%&"'0 a't"3"t01"&or 5n 'ar $unt %r/nt $u2$tan1 %r"'u&oa$ =to"'(-oart to"'( o"dant( %&o/"3( "n-&a4a2"&( -oart "n-&a4a2"&( tr4 d "n-&a4a2"&(

    %r"'u&oa$ %ntru 4d"u( 5n 'ant"t01" #a& $au 4a" 4ar" d'6t '& %r30/ut HG J+*++!

    =HG J+*++

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    "ig# $ %tructura evalurii riscului

    )

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    II! C&a$"-"'ara .a/ard&or

    Ha/ardu& nu $t un -no4n 5nt64%&0tor 7" n"'" "4%rd"'t"2"&( '" doar 4an"-$tara 7"'on$'"n1& $a& $unt( 5n #nra&( d"-"'"& d %ro#no/at 7" 'ontro&at! Mot"3a1"a tort"'0 a

    '&a$"-"'0r"" .a/ard&or r/"d0 5n n3o"a 'o4un"t01"" 7t""n1"-"' d a a3a "n$tru4nt d &u'ru%r'"$ 7" un &"42a< 'o4un! Unu& d"ntr 'r"tr""& d '&a$"-"'ar a .a/ard&or 1"n 'ont d40$ura 5n 'ar .a/ard& $unt natura& $au nu!

    Hazarde naturale'u4 ar -" 'utr4ur $au "nunda1"" #nrat d %ro'$& natura&d"n 4d"u 5n'on

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    8 Ha/ard& ndo#n "n'&ud ru%t""& 3u&'an"' 7" 'utr4ur&( -no4n 'ar %r"na4%&oara &or #nra/0( 5n '& 4a" 4u&t $"tua1""( nu4roa$ %"rdr" d 3"1" o4n7t" 7"

    %a#u2 4atr"a&! A'1"una &or $t #nrat0 d nr#"a %ro3n"t0 d"n "ntr"oru& %&ant"( 'aur4ar a rd"$tr"2u"r"" %r4annt a '0&dur"" %r"n 'urn1"" d 'on3'1"! Ha/ard& ndo#n 8

    7" 5n $%'"a& ru%1""& 3u&'an"' 8 %ot $0 "n-&un1/ #&o2a& $"$t4u& tr$tru %r"n 'ant"t01"&4ar" d 'nu7" 3u&'an"' 4"$ 5n at4o$-r0!

    8 Ha/ard& o#n $ d"-rn1"a/0 5n: .a/ard '&"4at"' ='"'&on""( tornad&( -urtun"&(-ur&( #r"nd"na( %o&"u&( $'ta t'!( .a/ard #o4or-o&o#"' =d%&a$0r" 5n 4a$a(ro/"un( .a/ard ."dro&o#"' ="nundat""&( .a/ard o'ano#ra-"' =r"d"'ara n"3&u&u"o'anu&u" %&antar( "'2r#ur"&( E& N"no( .a/ard 2"o&o#"' =%"d4""( "n3a/"" d "n$'t 7"ro/atoar( .a/ard 2"o-"/"' =-o'u& 7" .a/ard a$tro-"/"' ='0dra 4tor"1"&or!

    8 .a/ard antro%"' =antro%o#n 8 $unt -no4n %otn1"a& d0unatoar $o'"t01""(d'&an7at d a't"3"t01"& u4an! A'$t -no4n $unt at d d/3o&tara t.no&o#""&or4odrn( d a't"3"t01"& a#r"'o& 7" d a4na

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    8 .a/ard 'u -'t d"r't a$u%ra oa4n"&or: 4oart( 2o&"( $tr$( %a#u2

    8 .a/ard 'u a'1"un d"r't0 a$u%ra 2unur"&or: %"rdr" 'ono4"'( d"$tru#rad"3r$&or 2unur"

    8 .a/ard 'u a'1"un d"r't0 a$u%ra 4d"u&u" 5n'on

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    8 .a/ard #&o2a& 'u -'t r#"ona&( 'u4 $unt d7rt"-"'ara 7" ro/"una $o&ur"&or!A'$t .a/ard d3"n #&o2a& %r"n 'u4u&ar

    8 .a/ard r#"ona&( 'ar a-'ta/0 $u%ra-1 5nt"n$ % 'ont"nnt 7" o'an 7" 'u%r"nd'"'&on""( -urtun"& tra8tro%"'a& 7" %o&uara a%"( aru&u" 7" $o&u&u"

    8 .a/ard &o'a& 7" %un'tua&( 'u4 $unt a&un'0r"&( ru%t""& 3u&'an"'( 'utr4ur&!

    D7" $ 4an"-$t0 % $u%ra-1 r$tr6n$( a'$t .a/ard %ot $0 a"20 -'t do$2"t d%utrn"'!

    Du%a %o$"2"&"tata( 3"t/a( %r'"/"a %ro#no/" 5n t"4% ut"& $ %ot do$2": .a/ardnatura& 'ar %ot -" %ro#no/at ='u %r'"/" 4ar( 'u %r'"/" 4d"( 'u %r'"/" 4"'0 7".a/ard natura& 'ar nu %ot -" %ro#no/at $au $unt %ro#no/at 'u %ut"n t"4% 5na"nt dd'&an7ar!

    Du%0 -r'3n1a 5ntr8un ara& dat( $ do$2$' ur40toar& 'at#or"": -oart -r'3nt(-r'3nt( r&at"3 -r'3nt( 'u -r'3n10 4d"( rar 7" -oart rar!

    9n -un'1" d 40r"4a -'t&or =nu40r d %r$oan a-'tat( %a#u2 'ono4"'(d"$tru#r" a& 4d"u&u"( .a/ard& $ d-rnt"a/a 5n:

    8 .a/ard 'u -'t rdu$( 'ar %rodu' %a#u2 4"'"( ' %ot -" rrnd"at %r"n -or1&o'a&

    8 .a/ard 'u -'t $3r( 'ar %rodu' %rtur2ar" a& -un't"on0r"" $o'"tat""( %a#u2"4%ortant 7" ran"r" d %r$oan( ' n'$"ta "ntr3nt"a -or4at"un"&or d %rot't" '"3"&a 7" aa&tor or#an"$4 a2"&"tat

    8 d/a$tr ='ata$tro-( 'ar %rodu' 5ntrru%ra $au %rtur2ara #ra30 a -un'1"on0r""$o'"t01"" 7" #nra/0 3"'t"4 o4n7t"( 4ar" %a#u2 4atr"a& 7" d"$tru#r" a& 4d"u&u"!A'$t -'t d%07$' 'a%a'"tata $o'"t01"" d a ra't"ona -"'"nt %r"n -o&o$"ra r$ur$&or&o'a&( -"nd n'$ar "ntr3n1"" 7" a

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    O a&t0 'at#or" o 'on$t"tu" .a/ard& 'orn"'! A'$ta nu %ro3"n d &a un 3n"4nt(dar $unt 'au/at d 'ond"1"" 'ont"nu 'ar $ a'u4u&a/0 5n t"4% =d 4%&u -oa4t(d#radara r$ur$&or( %o&uara " 'onta4"nara to"'0 % $'ar0 &ar#0! *

    III! Moda&"t01" d a2ordar a .a/ard&or

    Pntru 'uant"-"'ara 7" '&a$"-"'ara .a/ard&or natura& 5n tr4n" a''$"2"&" %r'%1""u4an %oat -" ut"&"/at0 o $'ar0 =4od"-"'at0 du%0 Burton t a&!( )>J 'ar 3"/a/0ur40toar& a$%'t:

    8 Fr'3n1a 8 d &a rar &a -r'3nt

    8 Durata 8 d &a rdu$0 &a 4ar

    8 Et"ndra ara&0 8 d &a &"4"tat0 &a 4ar

    8 D'&an7ara 8 d &a &nt0 &a "n$tantan

    8 D$-07urara 8 d &a &nt0 &a ra%"d0

    8 D"$%r$"a 8 d &a d"-u/0 &a 'on'ntrat0

    8 E3o&u1"a 5n t"4% 8 d &a 3o&u1"a 5n $a&tur" &a 'a 'on$tant0!

    Et"ndra ara&0 a .a/ard&or ar o du2&0 $4n"-"'a1" 5n 'a ' %r"3 t atura $a'u .a/ard&: % d o %art( $ r-r0 &a &o'a&"/ara /on" a-'tat d un anu4"t t"% d .a/ard(

    % d a&t0 %art( $ r-r0 &a d"4n$"una /on" a-'tat0!

    Fr'3nta .a/ard&or r%r/"nt0: rata d a%ar"1" r&a1"a d"ntr "n'"dn10 " %r"oada dt"4% nu40ru& d a%ar"1"" 5ntr8o anu4"t0 %r"oad0 d t"4% %ro%r"tata d a%ar"1" d 4u&tor"! 9n 'a/u& #o8.a/ard&or( -r'3nta $t: %ro2a2"&"tata =t4%ora& 'a un .a/ard d oanu4"t0 4a#n"tud"n $0 a%ar0 5ntr8o /on0 $%'"-"'0 " &a 5ntr8o anu4"t0 %r"oad0 d t"4% =an"(/'" d an"( $'o& t'!!

    Alunecrile de teren

    8 Fa'tor" d'&an ator": o#n" =%r'"%"ta1"" a2undnt( d#radara trnur"&or ndo#n"='utr4ur( a't"3"t01" antro%"' 8 d-r" 0r"( ut"&"/ara "nad'3at0 a trnu&u"!

    8 A%ar"1"a tr"tor"a&0: ara& d %ant0( $"tuat &a 'onta'tu& d"ntr tra$0 " &un'0!

    8 Durat0: ra%"d =d &a '6t3a $'und &a 4"nut!

    8 T"4%u& d 4an"-$tar: d &a $'und &a &un"!

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    8 Fr'3n10Ma#n"tud"n: d%"nd d &o'a1"( dar a'$ta ur4a/0 o r&a1" "n3r$0 8'u'6t $t 4a" 4ar 4a#n"tud"na( 'u at6t $t 4a" 4"'0 -r'3n1a!

    8 E3n"4nt $'undar: a&un'0r"& d trn %ot d'&an a d#radara " ro/"una $o&u&u"!

    Inundaiile

    8 Fa'tor" d'&an ator": o#n" =%r'"%"ta1"" a2undnt " d &un#0 durat0!

    8 A%ar"1"a tr"tor"a&0: 3""tur" a& a-&un1"&or Dun0r"" =/on 4"'" "nundat( "nunda1"" a&Dun0r"" ="nundara Lun'"" Dun0r"" 8 trnur" a#r"'o&( #o$%od0r""( '0" d 'o4un"'a1"!

    8 Durat0: ra%"d =3""tur"& $ %rodu' 5n 4a" %u1"n d o or0 5n 'a/u& a-&un1"&r Dun0r"" " 5n

    d &a '6t3a or %6n0 &a /"& 5n 'a/u& Dun0r""!

    8 T"4%u& 4an"-$tar: d &a '6t3a or &a /"&( " '."ar $0%t046n"!

    8 Fr'3n10Ma#n"tud"n: d%"nd d &o'a1"( dar a'$ta ur4a/0 o r&a1" "n3r$0 8'u'6t $t 4a" 4ar 4a#n"tud"na( 'u at6t $t 4a" 4"'0 -r'3n1a!

    8 E3n"4nt $'undar: ro/"una $o&u&u" " %o$"2"& a&un'0r" d trn %"d4""!

    &azardele tehnologice

    8 Fa'tor" d'&an ator": a''"dnt o'a/"ona&

    8 A%ar"1"a tr"tor"a&0: %ot a%0ra or"und $ d$-0 oar0 a't"3"t01" antro%"' d"n do4n"u&'ono4"' " a& $r3"'""&or

    8 Durat0: d &a '6t3a $'und &a &un"!

    8 T"4%u& d 4an"-$tar: 3n"4nt na t%tat( -0r0 #nra&"/ara 4odu&u" $aut"4%u&u" d 4an"-$tar!

    8 Fr'3n10Ma#n"tud"n: 5nt64%&0toar!

    8 E3n"4nt $'undar: %&o/""& %ot d'&an a "n'nd""( "ar d"$%r$"a %o&uan1"&or %oat%ro3o'a d/a$tr 'o&o#"' t'!

    Pntru anu4"t t"%ur" d .a/ard d"4n$"un"& ra& a& 3n"4ntu&u" %ot -"4od"-"'at 5n 'a/u& 5n 'ar $unt &uat 40$ur" ad'3at! Pntru a&t t"%ur"( n"'" o t.no&o#"'uno$'ut0 nu %oat 4od"-"'a 5n 4od -"'"nt a%ar"1"a 5n $"n a .a/ardu&u"! D 4%&u(

    'on$tru"ra d d"#ur" % a42& 4a&ur" a& unu" 'ur$ d a%0 %oat rdu' "ntn$"tata"nunda1""&or( dar n"4"' nu %oat 4odra unda $$"$4"'0 5n 'a/u& %rodu'r"" unu" 'utr4ur!

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    Autor"t01"& 5n 'a 4a" 4ar %art au &ua 40$ur" d rdu'r a .a/ard&or( -0r0 %ra4u&t ntu/"a$4 " 5n 'adru& 'on$tr6n#r"&or 'ono4"'! 9n $'o%u& d a 'on'ura %ntru'.&tu"&" " r$ur$ &"4"tat( tr2u" $0 #0$a$'0 o

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    Risc = Hazard * ulnera!ilitate * "uma elementelor la risc Risc = Hazard *ulnera!ilitate # $apacitate

    E3a&uara r"$'u&u" $t %ro'$u& 5n ur4a '0ru"a $ dtr4"n0 natura 7" #radu& r"$'u&u"%r"n ana&"/ara %otn1"a&&or .a/ard 7" 3a&uara 3u&nra2"&"t01"" "$tnt( 'ar ar %uta'on$t"tu" un %r"'o& %ntru oa4n"( 2unur"( 4"> "&."t( *+++ S4"t.(*++)! A7adar( atr"2u"ra 'a&"t01"" d .a/ard unu" -no4n natura& nu $t 'ond"1"onat0 d

    %rodu'ra d %a#u2 4atr"a& $au 3"'t"4( '" d %otn1"a&u& unor a$t-& d 'on$'"n1!

    E3a&uara r"$'u&u" "4%&"'0 nu nu4a" 3a&uara .a/ard&or d"n %un't d 3drt""n1"-"'( dar( d a$4na( " a "4%a'tu&u" $o'"o8'ono4"'!

    R"$'u& 'on$t"tu" %ro2a2"&"tata 'a un 3n"4nt 3a %ro3o'a anu4"t %a#u2( $au una$%'t a& "4%a'tu&u" 'ono4"' 5n tr4n" 4ontar" % 'ar un .a/ard 5& %oat %ro3o'a! A$t-&(3a&uara r"$'u&u" "4%&"'0:

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    3a&uara .a/ardu&u"

    a4%&a$ara '&0d"r"&or( a auto$tr0/"&or " a a&tor &4nt d "n-ra$tru'tur0 5n /on&$u%u$ r"$'u&u"

    %unra %otn1"a&0 &a -'t& -"/"' a& unu" .a/ard

    3u&nra2"&"tata 'o4un"t01"" atun'" '6nd $t $u%u$0 &a -'t& -"/"' a& .a/ardu&u"!

    Ut"&"/ara no1"un"&or d .a/ard 7" r"$' #o4or-o&o#"' au "4%&"'at d8a &un#u& t"4%u&u"un& d"$%utQ 5n $n$u& ar"" $%r ut"&"/ar a& unu"a $au a& a&tu"a( 4a" d#ra20 d"n 4ot"3' 1"n d t"4o&o#"a 7" %r'%ra a'$tora 5n &"42a

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    Figura #. Relaii cauzale $ntre hazard %H&' risc %R& (i "ulnerabilitate %!&

    Ana&"/a r"$'u&u" $t"4a/0 %ro2a2"&"t01"& 7" 'on$'"n1& a7t%tat %ntru un r"$'"dnt"-"'at 5ntr8un tr"tor"u! Con$'"n1& 3or 3ar"a 5n -un'1" d 4a#n"tud"na 3n"4ntu&u"(

    %r'u4 7" d 3u&nra2"&"tata &4nt&or a-'tat =T.?"$$n( *++,!

    E3a&uara r"$'u&u" $t o ana&"/0 'ant"tat"30 a r"$'u&u"! Ana&"/a r"$'u&u" $ 2a/a/0 %tor"a 4at4at"'0 a %ro2a2"&"t01"" 7" o $r" d 4tod 7t""n1"-"' %ntru "ndnt"-"'ara tur""5nt64%&0toar 5ntr d"3r$ t"%ur" d a't"3"t01" ' %ot du' &a %rodu'ra d d/a$tr!

    E3a&uara r"$'u&u" 5n %r/ntu& $tud"u $ 3a ra&"/a 5n 2a/a a ta% d"$t"n't:

    8 "ndnt"-"'ara .a/ardu&u"

    8 "dnt"-"'ara r"$'u&u" " ana&"/a r"$'u&u" ='ar $t %ro2a2"&"tata d %rodu'r a.a/ardu&u" " 'ar $unt &4nt& %u$ &a r"$'

    8 ra'1"a &a r"$' ='ar $unt %"rdr"& datorat .a/ardu&u"!

    D"n'o&o d a't"3"tata d 3a&uar %ro%r"u8/"$0 a r"$'u&u"( $ %oat 3or2" d un 4ana#4nt a&r"$'u&u"( a'1"un 'ar 'u%r"nd tr" -a/:

    8 "dnt"-"'ara r"$'u&u"

    8 ana&"/a r"$'u&u"

    8 ra'1"a &a r"$'!

    Idnt"-"'ara r"$'u&u" $ ra&"/a/0 %r"n 5nto'4"ra unor &"$t d 'ontro&( or#an"/ara unor$$"un" d "dnt"-"'ar a r"$'ur"&or 7" ana&"/a "n-or4a1""&or 'u&$! Ana&"/a r"$'u&u" ut"&"/a/0

    4tod %ro2a2"&"$t"' 'u4 $unt: dtr4"nara 3a&or"" a7t%tat( $"4u&ara Mont Car&o(

    17

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    ar2or"" d'"/"ona&"( t'! Ra'1"a &a r"$' 'u%r"nd 40$ur" 7" a'1"un" %ntru d"4"nuara(&"4"nara $au r%art"/ara r"$'u&u"!

    Nu4"4 r"$' n$"#uran1a a$o'"at0 or"'0ru" r/u&tat! N$"#uran1a $ %oat r-r" &a%ro2a2"&"tata d a%ar"1" a unu" 3n"4nt $au &a "n-&un1a( &a -'tu& unu" 3n"4nt 5n 'a/u&

    5n 'ar a'$ta $ %rodu'!

    R"$'u& a%ar atun'" '6nd:

    un 3n"4nt $ %rodu' $"#ur( dar r/u&tatu& a'$tu"a n$"#ur

    -'tu& unu" 3n"4nt $t 'uno$'ut( dar a%ar"1"a 3n"4ntu&u" $t n$"#ur0

    at6t 3n"4ntu&( '6t 7" -'tu& a'$tu"a $unt "n'rt!

    Pro'$u& d 3a&uar a r"$'u&u" $ 2a/a/0 % ana&"/a a42&or 'ara'tr"$t"'" t.n"' a&.a/ard&or( 'u4 ar -" % d o %art &o'a&"/ara &or( "ntn$"tata( -r'3n1a%ro2a2"&"tata( "ar %d a&t0 %art d"4n$"un"& -"/"'( $o'"a&( 'ono4"' " d 4d"u d 3u&nra2"&"tat " %unr( 1"n6nd $a4a d 'a%a'"t01"& d ada%tar %rt"nnt a& r"$'u&u"!

    9n -un'1" d r&a1"a .a/ard r"$'( 3a&uara r"$'u&u" ar tr2u" $0 -" =ADPC( *++K:

    8 4u&t"8.a/ard: a'a " /on0 %oat -" a4n"n1at0 d d"-r"t t"%ur" d .a/ard! 9n -un'1"

    d 'at#or"a d .a/ard %rodu$( $ %ot 5nt6&n" $'nar"" d"-r"t( "ar -"'ar d"ntr $'nar""& dr"$'( d a$4na( ar %uta a3a 4a#n"tud"n" d"-r"t! D 4%&u( ad6n'"4a a%" " 3"t/a5n 'a/u& "nunda1""&or au un "4%a't d"-r"t a$u%ra d"3r$&or &4nt &a r"$'( " n'$"t0( %r"nur4ar( d"-r"t 'ur2 d 3u&nra2"&"tat " d"-r"t %ro2a2"&"t01" d a%ar"1"! Pr"n ur4ar( $t"4%ortant $0 $ "dnt"-"' % &6n#0 'at#or"a .a/ard&or " "4%a'tu& a'$tora a$u%ra"n3$t"1""&or a'tua& " 3""toar( % d"-r"t #ru%ur" $o'"o8d4o#ra-"' " 'a%a'"tata &or d a r/"$ta " d a -a' -a10 "4%a'tu&u"!

    8 4u&t"8$'tor"a&0: .a/ard& 3or a3a "4%a't a$u%ra d"-r"t&or t"%ur" d &4nt$u%u$ r"$'u&u"( " d a'a $t "4%ortant $0 $ 'a&'u&/ -'tu& tota& a$u%ra a'$tora("n'&u$"3 &a n"3& d 4d"" rura& " ur2an! 9n 4d"u& rura&( 3a -" "4%ortant "4%a'tu& a$u%raa#r"'u&tur""( %o%u&a1""( r1aua d tran$%ort " a$u%ra 4d"u&u" natura& =/on %rot

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    8 4u&t"8%0r1" "ntr$at: 5n a't"3"t01"& d 3a&uar a r"$'u&u" ar tr2u" $0 "4%&"' %0r1"&"ntr$at r&3ant( 'ar %ot -" %r$oan -"/"'( 5ntr%r"ndr"( or#an"/a1"" " autor"t01"

    8 4u&t"8-a/0: 3a&uara r"$'ur"&or tr2u" $0 "a 5n 'on$"drar 40$ur" d r0$%un$( dr'u%rar( d atnuar " %r#0t"r!

    E3a&uara r"$'u&u" $ %oat ra&"/a -o&o$"nd -" 4tod 'a&"tat"3( -" 4tod'ant"tat"3! K

    VI! Dtr4"nara 'ant"tat"30

    R&a1""& 'ant"tat"3 d"ntr '& tr" &4nt $unt '3a 4a" 'o4%&!

    Dat -""nd .a/ardu& H" =%ro2a2"&"tata 'a un 3n"4nt 'u o "ntn$"tat 4a" 4ar $au#a&0 'u " $0 $ %rodu'0 5ntr8un anu4"t "ntr3a& d t"4% 7" 3u&nra2"&"tata V =%rd"$%o/"1"a"ntr"n$'0 a &4ntu&u" d a $u-r" %"rdr" 5n ur4a unu" 3n"4nt d "ntn$"tat "( r"$'u&R" r%r/"nt0 %ro2a2"&"tata &4ntu&u" d a $u-r" %a#u2 dator"t0 %rodu'r"" unu"3n"4nt 'u o "ntn$"tat 4a" 4ar $au #a&0 'u ":

    Rie = &Hi ' e()

    A'a$t0 r&a1" %r"40 %ro2a2"&"tata 'a -'t& $0 d%07a$'0 o anu4"t0 3a&oar 5n"ntr3a&u& d t"4% 'on$"drat =PAHO( *+++!

    A&1" autor" =To2"n 7" Mont/( )>> d$'r"u $u''$"una 4an"-$t0r"&or unu" 3n"4nttr4 a$t-&: hazard ' risc ' ameninare ' impact / dezastru ' (aza post ) impact! Cu a&t'u3"nt( 'ara'tr"$t"'"& d .a/ard "$t0 5n'0 d"n -a/a "n"1"a&0( atun'" '6nd -no4nu& $t %u$5n r&a1" 'u $o'"tata u4an0( 'u 'on$'"n1& % 'ar & %oat a3a( 3or2"4 d

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    VII! BIBLIOGRAFIE

    )!!"@"%d"a!or#

    *! !$'r"2d!'o4

    ! B0&tanu D!( S"4a M! =*++,! Mod"-"'0r" #&o2a& a& 4d"u&u"! Ha/ard natura& 7"t.no&o#"'( Ed"t! Crd"$( Bu'ur7t"

    ! B0&tanu D!( A& R! =*+++! Ha/ard natura& 7" antro%o#n( Ed"tura Cor"nt( Bu'ur7t"!

    K! Ar4a I! =*++,! R"$' 7" 3u&nra2"&"tat! Mtod d 3a&uar a%&"'at 5n #o4or-o&o#"(Ed"tura Un"3r$"t01"" d"n Bu'ur7t"!

    ,! Ad#r !N! =*++,! Vu&nra2"&"t?( G&o2a& En3"ron4nta& C.an#( ),! *,J*J)( E&$3"r!

    8 Ad#r !N!( &&? M! =)>>>! So'"a& 3u&nra2"&"t? to '&"4at '.an# and t. ar'."t'tur o-nt"t&4nt( M"t"#at"on and Ada%tat"on Strat#"$ -or G&o2a& C.an# ( *K*,,!

    20

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