Download - Nr.Proiect : D11-025 Titlu proiect :
Nr.Proiect: D11-025Titlu proiect: Algoritm de calcul pentru simularea numerică a ciclurilor seismice in vederea identificării elementelor cu caracter precursor. Director proiect: Dr. Ing. Cărbunar Florian Octavian – Institutul Naţional de Cercetare Dezvoltare pentru Fizică şi Inginerie Nucleară – “Horia Hulubei”
Parteneri de consorţiu:1 – Institutul National de Cercetare Dezvoltare pentru Fizica Pământului. Responsabil: Director Ştiinţific Dr. Radulian Mircea.2 – Universitatea Bucureşti, Facultatea de Geofizică. Responsabil: Prof. Dr. Ivan Marian
Buget: 1 800 000 leiAdresă web: http://proiecte.nipne.ro/pn2/acsics
• Obiectivul proiectului: Realizarea unui algoritm de calcul performant pentru modelarea numerică a
ciclurilor seismice, cu ajutorul tehnicilor performante de calcul (paralel, Grid), capabil să explice proprietăţile specifice ale sistemului seismogenic din zona Vrancea şi care poate fi optimizat pe baza datelor de observaţie existente.
• Elemente de noutatea ale proiectului, originalitate: Direcţie de cercetare fundamentală complet nouă la nivel naţional şi din multe puncte de vedere inovativa la nivel internaţional (unde se abordează, în principal, problema faliilor de suprafaţă).• Beneficiarii rezultatelor, potenţialul de aplicare în economie: Finalizarea practică va pune la dispoziţia comunităţii ştiinţifice şi factorilor dedecizie, modelarea completă a evoluţiei activităţii seimice in Vrancea, va contribui la creşterea nivelului de cunoaştere a configuraţiei şi structurii zoneiactive şi a predicţiei evoluţiei viitoare a procesului seismic, cu consecinţe extremde importante pentru economie, pentru evaluarea riscului seismic asociat.
Etapa 1 (sept-dec 2007):Buget de stat 140 000 lei: 80 000 (IFIN-HH)/50 000 (INFP) /10 000 (UB)
Realizarea unei baze de date proprii, ACSICS, conţinand cutremurele vrancene de adâncime intermediară (peste 7200 evenimente cu adancimi intre 50 si 170 km)
- Participarea la reuniunea de toamnă AGU (San Francisco, SUA) in perioada 10-14.dec. 2007 (Dr. Cărbunar O. şi Dr. Radulian M.)
- Vizita de lucru la Univ. Davis în perioada 15-18.dec. (Dr. Cărbunar O. şi Dr. Radulian M.) la invitatia Prof. John Rundle, Dir. Center for CS and Eng. al Univ. din California, Dir. ACES/APEC. S-a prezentat algoritmul de simulare propus pentru zona Vrancea si s-a efectuat un schimb de experientă extrem de util.
Etapa 2:Buget de stat 359 083 lei: 201 850 (IFIN-HH)/127 233 (INFP)/30 000
(UB)
- Revizuire catalog: Vizită de lucru la Lab de Seismologie, Univ. Nevada- Comunicare prezentată la SSA Annual Meeting, Santa Fe, Dr. Cărbunar O., Dr.
Radulian M. - - Grafica 3D elaborata în colaborare cu Dr. Tadel Matevz, CERN-Geneva- - Definirea domeniilor de variaţie a parametrilor.- - Program (EQSIM), compară –la statistici mari- rezultatul codului de Simulare a gGGenerării Cutremurelor din Vrancea, cu datele de Catalog, rulat în ambianţă(SEE-GRID-2: Turcia, Bulgaria, Romania ). - - Achiziţii 80 396 lei: Software – Matlab; Echipament: Server Dell XPX pentru
grafică, notebooks, multifucţională/imprimantă, switch, monitoare, ups.- C-Colaborare cu NCIT , Catedra CS, Univ. Politehnica (Dr.Sluşanschi Emil)
Fig1 Dr Olivier Couet (CERN) a realizat un program care reprezentă volumul zonei seismice active şi poate face intersecţia cu 3 planuri orogonale, fiecare vizualizând
clusterele de magnitudine constantă
Figura 2 Zonele active (gnuplot 3D): sus / jos
Zona inferioara: Frecventa cutremurelor (PAW: Dr. Rene Brun, CERN)
timp tiimp Catalog Simulare EQCeti-ti+2 + EQCeti5 EQCe(sx,z,mag) ~ EQSeti3-ti4(sx,z,mag)
Main: Determina seed, valorile minime si medii de fitare, ptr. coordonate si magnitude; precum si alte statistici de interes.
Main : Lansare de n ori, loop, a Programului de Simulare ce genereaza EQ’s intr-un Ciclu Major, incepand de fiecare data cu alta samanta (seed) ptr. functia random function .
Program de Simulare (2D): Pornind de la seed genereaza si inregistreaza in fisierul fort.90 EQ’s, incepand imediat dupa un EQ catastrufal:
- cicle complet (1940 - 1884) - ciclu deschis (1986 – 2008)
Pentru ciclurile ce indeplinesc anumite conditii de control lanseaza Programul de Patern Recognition
Programul de pattern recognition: Compara in succesiune de timp EQ’s (coordonate and magnitudine) generate de Programul de Simulation, cu EQ’s reale, din Catalog: - fort.7 (ciclu complet) - fort.2 (coiclu deschis) prin EQ’s echivalente intretesute.
ti ti+1 ti+2 ti+3 ti+4 ti+5
EQCeti-ti+2 EQSeti3-ti4 EQCeti5
Exemple benchmark, in SEEGrid: 100000 executi, seed destart 555558887.55user 33.02system 2:28:41elapsed 99%CPU RO-07-NIPNE8544.04user 72.43system 3:07:33elapsed 76%CPU TR-01-ULAKBIM11624.17user 64.86system 3:31:00elapsed 92%CPU RO-08-UVT
Pattern Recognition ProgramExecutat in ambianta grid ptr. fitarea rezultatelor simularii cu datele reale de catalog
Etapa 3:Buget de stat 310 917: 168 150(IFIN), 112 767(INFP), 30 000(UB)
- Prof. David Van Seggern (Seismological Lab. Reno, SUA) implementează programul său pentru relocalizarea cutremurelor din catalogul ROMPLUS, folosind tehnici de double-diference şi cross-correlation.
- Elaborare algoritmului (2D) de simulare numerica a generării cutremurelor din Vrancea, pe baza unui model de percolatie cu constrangeri.
- Studii privind definirea grilei, relaţiile constitutive şi de calibrare, refacerea zonei de faliere, analiza tipurilor de ciclu seismic.
- Comunicare prezentată la AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-19 December, 2008
- Negociere preţ-educaţie (1/6) TotalView & ReplayEngine debugger ptr. calcul paralel (32+6 tokens)
ol.png dl.png
START
Setarea initiala
Selectie metronom
Cluster monoasperitate
Evidenta asperitatii
Banca celule albe
Saturarea asperitatilor
Setare ptr. evenimente asperitate
Vecinatate asperitate
Indexul de ponderi
Eveniment
asperitate
Asperitate doborata
Administrat eveniment
a.b.c.
d.e.f.g
h
Scriere fisier inregistrari
Scanare fisier inregtistrari
Reset marcaj
celule gri
Vecinatate
asperitati
Vecinatate
Vecinatate
Aparitie celule gri
Clustere
EVENIMENT
ASPERITATE
AB
iii
iii-iv Celule
neutre
v
C
3
Urmatoarea gri
Urmatoarea directie neagra
Urmatorul metronom
EVENIMENT
ASPERITATE
EVENIMENT
MAJOR
Scanarea fisier
inregistrari
Bilant ANTE SOC
POST SOC
Scriere fisier de inregistrari
Comunicare
Inserare
Clustere
Clustere
Mono-celuleCluster
e
Vecinatate
Constructie
CLUSTER ASPERITA
TE
post soc
LEGENDA
Bucla program
Bucla multipla
Decizie
Subrutina
Bloc program
Bilantul final corectat in
fisier inregistrari
Scrie POST SOC
Scanare banca asperitati
END
1
2
iii-iv
v
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120durata ciclului (ani)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
. Nr.
cicl
uri
Distribuţia duratei ciclului pentru 10.000 de cicluri simulate
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0magnitude
0
1
2
3
log
N
slope = -1
3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5magnitude
0
2
4
6
log
N
slope = -1.1
Comparaţie între distribuţia frecvenţă de apariţie – magnitudine, Gutenberg-Richter,pentru un catalog real (perioada1995 - 2008) – şi pentru 10000 de simulări
• Buget de stat 87 754: 55 926(IFIN), 31 828(INFP)
-Studiu: Analiza algoritmilor existenţi in literatură.
-Evaluarea cutremurului catastrofal, luând în considerare efectele ante- si post-cutremur, utilizând procesarea paralelă şi bibliotecile MPI, pe clusterul Myrinet instalat la DFPEIT, IFIN-HH.Sunt efectuate 4 tipuri complexe de activitati paralele.Exemplu de calibrare: 8 clustere la AE, 1 la Major şi 6 la PE. Listing eşantion
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FLAG= 1 IR= 555 466 1359 albe: GRILA IMITIALA ARE NR.ELEM.A=4241,PRIMUL IALB0=1 KM= 2150 … KTOTAL 621 KA=2103 FLAG= 2 KA=, KM= 2103 2150 … albe: GRILA IMITIALA ARE NR.ELEM.A=4241,PRIMUL IALB0=1 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 1 9 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 2 1 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 3 8 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 4 1 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 5 1 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 6 4 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1907 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1828 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1749 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1668 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1588 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1670 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1671 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1592 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1750 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1751 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1590 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 7 2 NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 8 1 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1538 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1459 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1460 EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1457 EXEC2: DUBLU LA CATASTROFAL=2725 EXEC2: DUBLU LA CATASTROFAL=2565 … NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA CATASTROFAL= 161 NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA ANTE-EFECT= 242 NR.ELEM.DUBLE ANTE-EFECT PUR= 15 NR.ELEM.DUBLE CATASTROFAL= 11 CATASTROFAL -K,IGRADS/G/- 2150 171 161 267 EXEC2, POST-EFECT: NR.ELEM.CLUSTER NEGRU DOBORAT 7 EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3205 EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3124 EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3125 … NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA POST-EFECT= 154 NR.ELEM.DUBLE LA POST-EFECT= 58 POST-EFECT -NR,IGRADS/G/- 6 177 154 293 ANTE-EFECT -NR,IGRADS/G/- 7 269 242 422 BILANT FINAL-K,IGRADS/G/- 2103 617 557 982 KTOTAL 621 STRUCT.DE REZISTENTA -DUPA CUTREMUR CATASTROFAL: K,E,P = 3 1 8 K,E,P = 32 2 13 … GR.GRI -DUPA CUTREMURUL CATASTROFAL: K,E = 2 5 K,E = 3 1 … Negre=,Gri= 117 2150 NR.ELEM.A= 3333 End: total= 0.117981002 user= 0.115982004 system= 0.00199900009
Analiza configuratiei activitatii seismice si a structurii corpului litosferic subdus cu un algoritm original de calcul
Sunt evidentiate efectele de torsiune a corpului litosferic si neomogenitatile distributiei hipocentrelor-Doua segmente active separate de o zona de tranzitie in jurul adancimii de 100 km-Schimbarea orientarii si inclinarii planului de activitate seismica-Concentrarea hipocentrelor la zonele de granita dintre corpul litosferic si mantaua inconjuratoare
Introduce la consola: -input file; -limite: a – nr de iteratii; b- precizie. Initializari: -coef. a,b,c cu valori determinate 3pct din plan Matevz; d=-1000, - mark=mark3=markt=0; b- precizia calculului; dist2minbak=MaxVal
Initializarea la fiecare iteratie: -directia variatiei if(mod(mark3,3).eq.0/1/2) a=a/b/c+inc sqrtdelta=sqrt(a**2+b**2+c**2) - variabile dist=dist2=icnt=icntef=ti=tf=0
Read fisier_date (considersate doar EQ’s cu lat/lon# 0) Loop: Calculeaza dist,dist2,icntef ptr.fiecare EQ’s
EOF
Write fort.7 : a,b,c,dist,dist2 REWIND INPUT
mark=0 Initializare prima trecere: mark=1 distmin /dist2min=dist/dist2 a/b/cdist2min=a/b/c
mark=2
2
1
mark=1 & dist2.gt.dist2min Inceput iteratie: directie gresita: inc=-inc; a/b/c=a/b/c+inc
dist2.lt.dist2min
Write fort.7: a/b/cdist2min, dist2min if(mod(mark3,3).eq.0/1/2) a/b/c=a/b/cdist2min mark3=mark3+1, mark=1 dif/dif2=dist/dist2minbak-dist/dist2min dist/dist2minbak=dist/dist2min
Initializata iteratia urmatoare: dist/dist2min=dist/dist2 a/b/cdist2min=a/b/c
dif2.lt.lim0 abs(dif).lt.lim0
markt=markt+1 markt.eq.3
Write fort.7: icntef, mark3 STOP 200
START
xnp
Proiecţia hipocentrelor ca model pentru setarea iniţială a grilei. Cod colori: magnitudine (a) culoare distanţă (b) < 3.0 galben < 2.0 3.0 - 3.9 verde 2.0 - 5.0 3.9 - 4.5 mov 5.0 - 10.0 4.5 - 5.0 rosu 10.0 - 20.0 5.0 - 6.0 albastru 20.0 - 40.0 > 6.0 negru > 40.0
GUI: Instantaneu slab, perioada 1974-2007. Profunzimea timpului este ilustrata prin culoare, in succesiunea descompunerea spectrale a luminii albe (violetul marcand evenimentele c.m.vechi, iar rosu c.m recente CERN Open GL
In cadrul colaborarii cu NCIT (National Center for Information Technology) al Catedrei de Calculatoare, Univ. Politehnica Buc. partener Dr. Sliusanschi Emil, s-a prezentat proiectul ACSICS la Scoala de Vara 2008 si in cadrul Fac. de Automatica si Calculatoare. Ca rezultat:- Doi studenti au prezentat la sesiunea de incheiere a scolii de vara, lucrari cu subiect din proiect.- Alti 2 studenti (Nadejde Maria si Pasatoiu Andrei) si-au sustinut cu succes lucrarea de diploma in sesiunea din 2009 vara, cu subiecte din proiectul ACSICS.- In ultima perioada se implica in acest domeniu tot mai multi tineri pentru lucrari de diploma, masterat si doctorat (Mocanu Eleonora).
Articole: EGU2007-A-05522: "Numerical simulation method applied for Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth
earthquakes", Carbunar, O. IFIN-HH; Radulian, M." INFP Romania, Conference: "EGU General Assembly 2007" (European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Viena 15-20 April 2007).
“Seismicity patterns in Vrancea and predictive features”, Radulian M., Popa M. INFP Romania, Carbunar F.O. IFIN-HH Romania, Rogozea M, Progress on seismic and geotectonic modeling across CEI territory and implications on preventing and mitigating seismic risk, 3nd International CEI Meeting, Bucuresti, 24-26 octombrie 2007, Acta Geod. Geoph. Hung., Vol. 43(2–3), pp. 163–173 (2008).
“Earthquake simulation algorithm and cycle characteristics in Vrancea (Romania) area”, Cărbunar F.O. IFIN-HH Romania, Radulian M. INFP Romania, 2008 Annual Meeting, Santa Fe, 16-18 April, 2008, Seismological Research Letters Volume 79, No. 2 on page 292
‘Space-Time Seismicity Patterns Ideentification in Vrancea (Romania) Seismic Region Using High-Resolution Revised Catalog Data’, Carbunar F.O. IFIN-HH, Bucharest, Radulian M. INFP, Bucharest, Van Seggern D. Seismological Laboratory, Reno, SUA, Ivan M. Fac. of Geophysics, Bucharest University, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-19 December, 2008.
“SKS splitting observed at Romanian broad-band seismic network”, Ivan M. University of Bucharest, Department of Geophysics, Popa M., Ghica D.,INFP, Bucharest, Romania, Tectonophysics 462, 89-98, 2008.
“Geometrical constrains for the configuration of the Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth seismicity nest. Mediane plane as tool in investigating the slab”, Carbunar O. IFIN-HH, Radulian M. INFP, Bucharest, Romania. Trimis spre publicare.