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7/23/2019 Ase Faza III http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ase-faza-iii 1/50 1  ACADEMIA DE STUDII ECONOMICE din BUCURETI !"#" %%% &'()*'*' +,)-)&).%% - /'&0'* ' %+1'2,0&0% 1)&%,%2%&)* 3'+%&%'& '401*' 2)+1)*,'+5,0&0% 4% /)&0,%% 4,*02,0*%&)* 3'+%&%'& %5 *)+'5%' '6!787!"!9" %%%:; Elaborarea modelelor econometrice pentru cuantificarea impactului politicilor familiale din Romania "#$%&'(% ! 6<7#" =9 69>69!">9) (*+,-.+/0-1&- 47?@A" .B%CE 2 3/&4(%*& 5&*/4(% 6"789 5&*,-.+/0-1&- /9>F7G /)%5'.0 5&*,-.+/0-1&- ?7G7" C%C'5 5&*,-.+/0-1&- 2@AH!"!7A +%,*0C (*+,-.+/0-1&- 2>7H!7A" ()()2 :4(%-.+/0-1&- -"A79G" /I*J'5 :4(%-.+/0-1&- *@K"A" 05.0*'50 '$/$%-.+/0-1&- -"A79G" ,)-)4 '$/$%-.+/0-1&1- +7<"9G" 2)/*%. 4(- 1&1- +@A76" ,)-)4 

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1

 ACADEMIA DE STUDII ECONOMICE din BUCURETI

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Elaborarea modelelor economet rice pent ru cuant if icarea

impactului polit icilor famil iale din Romania

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  AFDC - Aid to Famil ies with Dependent Chi ldren – în America, acest program furnizeaz asisten# financiar  copiilor alecror familii au venituri reduse sau nici un venit 

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ale copiilor versus alte bunuriRestric# ii financiare(i

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avea un copil

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Avantajele fiscale i transferuri le de numerar

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+.=4&'&- 3/+ $%.1/.: hU38 %&4/ ='&/ (*+(:.O// 5*% ,/ ,*&=.:'%4)

"0'+%'^4:4 ,/$(':4 '(*&1'%4 ,'=/://:*& (. (*5// 0'&/'OC (*+$/14&'#/: 14 :' * ?'&C :' ':%'g

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Serviciile de supraveghere i îngri jir e a copilului

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$%'&4' 14 #/+4 ' (*5//:*&- B'=4:4 5*% *5%' 14 '$4=4+4' $C '/#C H&/^C 14 (*5// 4:4 K+$4:4> K+$C

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,4&%/:/%'%4-

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3/04&$4:4 ,*&=4 14 (*+(41/. '(*&1'%4 5C&/+?/:*& (*+%&/#./4 K+%&!* =C$.&C /=5*&%'+%C K+

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='=4:*&- U*+(41//:4 14 ='%4&+/%'%4 $.+% (*=5*+4+%4 ':4 $/$%4=4:*& 14 $4(.&/%'%4 $*(/':C K+

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(*$%.&/:4 /+1/&4(%4 ':4 (*5//:*& 6Y4/HQ> ;S`E9- 3/+ $%.1//:4 I/ *#$4&0'?//:4 :./ p'=4&='+ 6AWWW9

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•   _+ ': 5'%&.:4' &N+1> 1/,/(.:%C?/:4 K+%N=5/+'%4 :' *#$4&0'&4' '+.=/%*& 0'&/'#/:4 (Q4/4

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54+%&. ,4=4/:4 ('&4 '. '0.% 14^' .+ :*( 14 =.+(C &4=.+4&'%-

Modelul econometr ic  

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<*&=':/O'&4' ='%4='%/(C ' =*14:.:./ 4$%4)

t iit t it it i   X  y y ,,1,, '   εηµβλ   ++++=−

 ⇔ 

t iit t it it it i   X  y y y ,,1,1,, ')1(   εηµβλ   ++++−=−−−

 

.+14)

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8$%/='&4' 4(.'?/4/ ; &/1/(C ='/ =.:%4 5&*#:4=4-

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Rata_fertilit !$ ii = f (Vârsta_medie_ na tere, Locuin $ e, Rata_omajulu i) + ' 

U*+$/14&N+1 * 1454+14+?C :/+4'&C =.:%/5:C> =*14:.: 140/+4)

Rata_fertilit !$ ii = (0  + (1  Vârsta_medie_ na tere + (2  Locuin $ e + (3  Rata_omajului + ' 

3'%4:4 54+%&. ('&4 4$%4 '5:/('% =*14:.: $.+% ,.&+/O'%4 14 G+$%/%.%.: n'?/*+': 14 7%'%/$%/(C I/

14 8.&*$%'%- \4O.:%'%4:4 5&4:.(&C&// '.%*='%4 ' 1'%4:*& (. $*,% 14 $54(/':/%'%4 $.+%)SUMMARYOUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0,970484

R Square 0,941839

 Adjusted R Square 0,920028

Standard Error 0,017817Observations 12

 ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3 0,041127 0,013709 43,18296441 0,0000274967

Residual 8 0,00254 0,000317

Total 11 0,043667

CoefficientsStandard

Error t Stat P-valueLower95%

Upper95%

Intercept 3,5057 0,3910 8,9670 0,0000190383 2,6042 4,4073

Mean age of women atchildbearing - (years) 0,0641 0,0356 1,7999 0,04565 0,0180 0,1461

Dwellings (thous.) 0,0004 0,0002 2,1383 0,02552 0,0001 0,0008

Unemployment rate - % -0,0485 0,0165 -2,9463 0,01853 -0,0865 -0,0106

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OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0,99817983

R Square 0,99636297

 Adjusted R Square 0,99499909

Standard Error 0,04607935

Observations 12

 ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3 4,6534385 1,55114618 730,533191 4,3E-10

Residual 8 0,0169865 0,00212331

Total 11 4,670425

CoefficientsStandard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 14,8346 0,4193 35,3788 4,45978E-10 13,868 15,802

School expectancy 0,5071 0,0769 6,5969 0,000170 0,329859 0,684403IWP 7,2466 1,3913 5,2086 0,000814 4,038302 10,454950

Mean_salary(lei/employee)constant prices 0,0167 0,0088 1,8932 0,089508 -0,003632 0,036952

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