analiza piata imobiliara real estate market · pdf filestudiu piata imobiliara real estate...

10
Studiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015 www.crosspoint-imobiliare.ro

Upload: vumien

Post on 10-Feb-2018

271 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Studiu piata imobiliara

Real Estate Market Study

Analiza Piata Imobiliara

Real Estate Market ReportMai / May 2015

www.crosspoint-imobiliare.ro

Page 2: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

• General overview

• Investment

• Office

• Retail

• Residential

• Land

• Aspecte generale

• Piata tranzactiilor investitionale

• Piata spatiilor de birouri

• Piata spatiilor comerciale

• Piata rezidentiala

• Piata terenurilor

Cuprins / Content

1

Page 3: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Aspecte generale General overview

Piata de real - estate a avut un start mult mai dinamic anul acesta, in comparatie cu activitatea inregistrata in anii precedenti, iar 2015 ar putea fi startul unei noi etape de crestere - avand in vedere estimarile de crestere a Produsului Intern Brut, a influxurilor de investitii straine directe (care au crescut cu 55% in primul trimestru al anului fata de aceeasi perioada a lui 2014) si absorbtia de fonduri structurale. 2015 a debutat cu un sentiment general de optimism in zona investitorilor si dezvoltatorilor si datorita noului Cod Fiscal, care anunta conditii fiscale mai relaxate.

Pe parcursul acestui an bancile vor accelera lichidarea creditelor si activelor non-performante iar un nou ciclu de finantare a proiectelor imobiliare va incepe in ultimul semestru al lui 2015.

Exista de asemenea si un context regional benefic. Avem semnale ca o serie de investitori isi indreapta atentia spre Romania, mai ales cu cat Polonia - piata cea mai ofertanta din acest punct de vedere - a ajuns deja la o anumita maturitate

declara Codrin Matei, managing partner, Crosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate.

The overall real estate market has bottomed–out as compared to the previous year and is set to enter a new growth cycle assuming sustained GDP growth and increasing FDI inflows (that increased by 55% in Q1 2015 as compared to Q1 2014) coupled with planned absorption of EU structural funds. 2015 debuted with a general feeling of optimism also because of the new Fiscal Code that announces more relaxed fiscal conditions.

During 2015 the banking sector will increase the pace of the sale of Non-performing loans and liquidation of real estate assets. A new cycle of project finance will begin to emerge during the final semester of 2015.

We also note a positive regional context. We have signals that significant international investors are prospecting the local market, especially as Poland – until not long ago, the most tempting market in the area – has already reached a certain maturity”

states Codrin Matei, managing partner, Crosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate.

2

Page 4: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Piata tranzactiilorinvestitionale

Investments

3

In 2014, valoarea totala a tranzactiilor investitionale inregistrate in Romania a depasit 700 mil. €, pentru prima data dupa 2008, iar conform estimarilor noastre in 2015 nivelul tranzactiilor investitionale va inregistra o crestere semnificativa.

Randamentul investitional se situeaza in prezent la 7,5 - 8% pentru investitiile in cladiri de birou prime iar randamentul mediu per ansamblul pietei de spatii de birouri este de 8,5%. Ratele randamentelor vor ramane constante in 2015, datorita posibilitatilor limitate de refinantare pe terment scurt.

In perioada analizata s-au inregistrat de asemenea o serie de tranzactii semnificative in segmentele de retail si logistic. Proprietarii locali vor incerca sa isi vanda cladirile intrucat randamentele au tendinta de a se comprima iar imprumuturile la banci ajung la termen. Cumparatorii vor avea nevoie de finantare internationala intrucat bancile locale nu vor putea sa ofere finantare in termeni competitivi pe termen mediu.

During 2014 the total value of transactions of institutional grade real estate traded in Romania exceeded € 700 mil. for the first time since 2008. There will be at least the same sum in real estate transactions during 2015.

The prime investment yield is currently at 7,5 - 8% for prime office investments and the average market yield for all office investments remains 8,5%. Yields are likely to remain constant during 2015 due limited re-financing structures in the short term.

During the past period their have also been significant transactions in both the retail and logistic sectors.

Domestic landlords will look to dispose of assets as yields compress and bank loans come to term. Buyers will require cross-border finance as local banks will not be able to offer finance at competitive terms during the medium term.

Page 5: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Analiza Crosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate noteaza un apetit crescut din partea investitorilor, care au inceput sa prospecteze mai activ, pentru achizitie de income producing assets, piata cladirilor inchiriate, cu un mix bun de chiriasi si care sunt bine pozitionate, cu acces la mijloacele de transport in comun.

Raportul intre cerere si oferta pentru spatii de birou din clasele A si B ramane in relativ echilibru pe parcursul lui 2015. In 2014 s-au semnat contracte de inchiriere pentru peste 200.000 mp de spatii moderne de birou iar in 2015 s-au inchiriat deja peste 60.000 mp. In consecinta, rata de neocupare a scazut la circa 13%, cel mai mic nivel de neocu-pare inregistrat din 2008 pana in prezent. Chiria medie pentru spatii prime de birou este de 18.25 €/m.p./ luna.

Noii chiriasi de spatii prime sunt acele companii ale caror contracte de inchiriere au ajuns la final in 2015 si care s-au relocat in primul trimestru al anului in cladiri mai bine pozitionate, cu facilitati mai bune, profitand de preturi foarte bune la chirii. Chiri-asii cu necesitati de peste 2.000 mp au semnat in general, de la inceputul anului si pana in prezent, contracte de pre-leasing pentru cladiri ce vor fi livrate cel mai devreme in 2016.

Multi dintre chiriasii cu necesitati de spatii mai mici sunt in cautare de a se reloca din spatiile de birouri ale caror standarde sunt depasite sau din cladiri cu destinatie rezidentiala in cladiri moderne de birouri.

Stocul actual de spatii de birou moderne depaseste in acest moment 2.2 mil. m.p. iar in 2015 vor fi livrati alti aproximativ 180.000 m.p. de spatii de birou. Din 2016, avand in vedere volumul de constructii pe segmentul de cladirilor de birou anun-tat pentru perioada urmatoare, estimam ca stocul de spatii moderne de birou nou livrate va creste gradual la peste 250.000 m.p./ an.

Din punctul de vedere al cererii de spatii de birouri, peste 80% dintre viitorii chiriasi solicita facilitati suplimentare fata de cele standard - un layout flexibil si eficient al spatiilor, cladiri cu arhitectura distincta, cu personalitate sau optiunile built - to - suit (cladiri construite pe specificatiile chiriasilor).

Piata spatiilor de birouri

4

OfficeCrosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate analysis points out an increased appetite from the investors, who are now more actively prospecting the market to invest in fully occupied buildings, well positioned and with a good tenants mix.

The supply and demand of both A & B Class office accommodation shall remain in relative equilibrium during 2015. During 2014, over 200.000 sq.m. of modern office accommodation was let and 2015 to date has already registered more than 60.000 sqm of take-up. As a result, the vacancy rate has decreased to circa 13% - its lowest level since 2008. The current prime office rent is € 18.25/sq.m./mo.

The majority of take-up is made up of tenants taking advantage of lease expiries to re-locate to location better serviced by public transportation and premises with higher specifications. Tenants with requirements exceeding 2.000 sq.m. are generally pre-leasing accommodation for delivery at least 1 year in advance. Furthermore, many tenants with small requirements are seeking to re-locate from substandard office stock, or residential stock to dedicated modern office buildings.

The total supply of modern office stock in Bucharest currently exceed 2.2 million sq.m. There will be approximately 180.000 sq.m. of new stock delivered in 2015. From 2016, the stock will begin to grow annually at more than 250.000 sq.m. per annum based upon market information about recent building starts.

From the demand point of view, more than 80% of the future tenants are requesting above standard facilities: a flexible and efficient layout of the spaces, buildings with distinct architecture, with personality or built – to – suit options.

Page 6: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Piata spatiilor comerciale

Stocul curent de spatii comerciale inchiriabile in mall-urile din Bucuresti este de 950.000 m.p. In trimestrul al doilea al anului 2015, acestui stoc i se vor adauga alti 110.000 m.p., prin lansarea Mega Mall. Cateva alte mall-uri, incluzand Victoria Centre (Bucurestii Noi) si Park Lake (Titan) vor fi livrate anii urmatori.

In prezent, nu se inregistreaza rate semnificative de neocupare in centrele comerciale, iar in acest context nivelul chiriilor este posibil sa se aprecieze. Nivelul mediu al chiriilor spatiilor in centrele comerciale din Bucuresti este de 60 €/m.p./ luna.

Ratele de neocupare pe segmentul de retail stradal din Bucuresti sunt de asemenea in scadere, avand in vedere activitatea recenta de expansiune a jucatorilor de pe piata supermarketurilor, farmaciilor, cafenele si alti retaileri stradali. Brandurile noi care si-au anuntat deja intrarea pe piata (segmentele café/ food/ beverage/ fashion) vor activa sectorul de retail high-street si de asemenea, in perioada urmatoare asteptam intrarea pe piata locala a unor branduri internationale cunoscute.

Nivelul mediu al chiriei pe segmentul high-street se mentine la 25 €/ m.p./ luna.

In continuare raman activi retailerii consacrati, agresivi in deschiderea de noi locatii. In 2014, retail-ul alimentar a fost dominat de Mega Image si Profi, cu 70% din numarul total de deschideri, acesti doi actori fiind cotati ca principalii jucatori activi in aceasta ramura pentru urmatoarele 12 luni.

In primul trimestru al anului 2015, departamentul comercial Crosspoint Real Estate a inregistrat o crestere a plasamentelor investitionale in zona de retail prin numeroasele cereri de achizitii de spatii comerciale deja inchiriate, in zonele sau pe arterele consacrate, dar si in zone neconventionale, capabile sa genereze randamente de 7-10%.

The current stock of international class shopping malls in Bucharest is 950.000 sqm. Q2 2015 will see the addition of the 110.000 sq.m. Mega Mall. Several other Shopping Malls including Victoria Centre, to be built in Bucuresti Noi and Park Lake (Titan) are set to be delivered in the coming years.

At the present time vacancy rates in Bucharest shopping centers are negligible and rents are likely to begin to appreciate. Prime rents in Bucharest’s shopping centers are now € 60/sq.m./mo.

Vacancy rates on the Bucharest high street pitches are also currently in decline whilst there has been growing take-up from supermarkets, pharmacies, coffee shops and other neighborhood retailers. The average high street rent is currently € 25/sqm/mo. The new brands that recently announced their launch on the local market (café/ food/ beverage/ fashion) will activate the high-street retail segment and also, in the following period we expect other international brands to enter the local market.

On the retail segment, well established retailers continue to be the most active, aggressive towards opening new locations. In 2014, food retail was dominated by Mega Image and Profi, with more than 70% of the total number of stores inaugurations and we estimate the two chains to remain the most active players on this segment in the next 12 months.

In Q1 2015, the Commercial department of Crosspoint Real Estate registered an increase of appetite for investments in the retail sector, as investors are prospecting to acquisition commercial spaces that are already leased, in well - established areas or commercial arteries as well as in unconventional areas that are able to generate 7-10% yields.

Retail

5

Page 7: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Piata rezidentiala Residential

6

Pe segmentul rezidential, un indicator de redresare a pietei este reluarea activa a vanzarii de apartamente in etapa de constructie.

Analiza Crosspoint noteaza o situatie care nu a fost prezenta in piata nici inainte in perioada 2006-2008: tendinta in crestere de contractare de apartamente in imobile noi, aflate in stadii de dinainte de obtinerea autorizatiilor de constructie. De la inceputul anului si pana in prezent, departamentul rezidential Crosspoint Real Estate a intermediat pre-contractarea unor pachete de astfel de apartamente, in valoare totala de peste 2.5 mil. €, in zona de nord a Bucurestiului - in proiecte a caror constructie va fi anuntata in perioada urmatoare.

O serie de dezvoltatori au facut deja publice noi proiecte rezidentiale iar cantitatea proiectelor livrate va avea o tendinta de crestere in lunile urmatoare, conform analizei Crosspoint. De asemenea, notam revenirea in piata a dezvoltatorilor “traditionali” – cei care au pus in asteptare o serie de proiecte in perioada de criza si care se pregatesc sa le reia in perioada urmatoare, adaptate contextului actual.

In ceea ce priveste calitatea noilor dezvoltari rezidentiale, analiza noteaza o tendinta de diversificare a proiectelor. Daca in anii de criza au predominat imobilele de mici dimensiuni, in perioada urmatoare consumatorii vor avea o paleta mai larga de optiuni: de la imobile cu caracter exclusivist, de 15-20 de apartamente, pana la ansambluri rezidentiale de mari dimensiuni, cu facilitati de tip “oras in oras”.

Se observa de asemenea o migratie a dezvoltatorilor cu o anumita notorietate in zona de sud (cei care au dezvoltat proiecte in zone ca Popesti Leordeni, Berceni, Militari) catre zona de nord - unde au achizitionat terenuri si au pornit noi dezvoltari. Cererea de locuinte este de asemenea in crestere pe zona de nord (Barbu Vacarescu, Aviatiei, Floreasca, etc.).

Un alt semnal de incredere este acela ca dezvoltatorii au reinceput sa lucreze cu companiile de consultanta, pentru management integral de proiect in ceea ce priveste reprezentarea pe partea de vanzare a proiectelor rezidentiale.

On the residential segment, a clear indicator of the market recovery is the sale of apartments in residential projects under construction.

Crosspoint analysis points out a situation that was not even present on the local market in the period of 2006-2008: increasing trend of apartments contracting in new residential buildings, in stages even before the construction authorizations are released. In Q1 2015, the Residential department of Crosspoint Real Estate has brokered packages of such apartments in total value of more than € 2.5 M, in the North area of Bucharest – in projects whose start of construction will be announced in the following period.

A series of developers have already announced new residential projects and the quantity of delivered units will tend to increase in the following months, according to Crosspoint analysis. We also note the return in the market of the “traditional” developers – who put their projects on hold during the crisis period and are now coming back on the market, with their projects adapted to the current context.

As the quality of the new residential projects is concerned, we note a trend of project diversification. If during the crisis years small – sized projects predominated, in the following period consumers will have a larger spectrum of offers in the residential markets: from small-sized buildings, of only 15-20 apartments, to large residential compounds, with “city-in-the-city” facilities.

We also observe a migration of developers with a certain notoriety in the Southern area (who previously developed projects in areas like Popesti Leordeni, Berceni, Militari) to the Northern area – where they acquisitioned lands and started new developments. This is correlated with an increasing demand for apartments in the Northern area (Barbu Vacarescu, Aviatiei, Floreasca, etc.), from our data.

Another signal of trust is that developers have started again to work with real estate advisory companies – for integrated project management as regards the sales of the residential units.

pre-contracting of apartments in new developments“traditional” developers coming backoffer diversificationmigration of developers from South to Northincrease of demand in North

Page 8: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Piata rezidentiala Residential

7

Pe segmentul rezidential, un indicator de redresare a pietei este reluarea activa a vanzarii de apartamente in etapa de constructie.

Analiza Crosspoint noteaza o situatie care nu a fost prezenta in piata nici inainte in perioada 2006-2008: tendinta in crestere de contractare de apartamente in imobile noi, aflate in stadii de dinainte de obtinerea autorizatiilor de constructie. De la inceputul anului si pana in prezent, departamentul rezidential Crosspoint Real Estate a intermediat pre-contractarea unor pachete de astfel de apartamente, in valoare totala de peste 2.5 mil. €, in zona de nord a Bucurestiului - in proiecte a caror constructie va fi anuntata in perioada urmatoare.

O serie de dezvoltatori au facut deja publice noi proiecte rezidentiale iar cantitatea proiectelor livrate va avea o tendinta de crestere in lunile urmatoare, conform analizei Crosspoint. De asemenea, notam revenirea in piata a dezvoltatorilor “traditionali” – cei care au pus in asteptare o serie de proiecte in perioada de criza si care se pregatesc sa le reia in perioada urmatoare, adaptate contextului actual.

In ceea ce priveste calitatea noilor dezvoltari rezidentiale, analiza noteaza o tendinta de diversificare a proiectelor. Daca in anii de criza au predominat imobilele de mici dimensiuni, in perioada urmatoare consumatorii vor avea o paleta mai larga de optiuni: de la imobile cu caracter exclusivist, de 15-20 de apartamente, pana la ansambluri rezidentiale de mari dimensiuni, cu facilitati de tip “oras in oras”.

Se observa de asemenea o migratie a dezvoltatorilor cu o anumita notorietate in zona de sud (cei care au dezvoltat proiecte in zone ca Popesti Leordeni, Berceni, Militari) catre zona de nord - unde au achizitionat terenuri si au pornit noi dezvoltari. Cererea de locuinte este de asemenea in crestere pe zona de nord (Barbu Vacarescu, Aviatiei, Floreasca, etc.).

Un alt semnal de incredere este acela ca dezvoltatorii au reinceput sa lucreze cu companiile de consultanta, pentru management integral de proiect in ceea ce priveste reprezentarea pe partea de vanzare a proiectelor rezidentiale.

On the residential segment, a clear indicator of the market recovery is the sale of apartments in residential projects under construction.

Crosspoint analysis points out a situation that was not even present on the local market in the period of 2006-2008: increasing trend of apartments contracting in new residential buildings, in stages even before the construction authorizations are released. In Q1 2015, the Residential department of Crosspoint Real Estate has brokered packages of such apartments in total value of more than € 2.5 M, in the North area of Bucharest – in projects whose start of construction will be announced in the following period.

A series of developers have already announced new residential projects and the quantity of delivered units will tend to increase in the following months, according to Crosspoint analysis. We also note the return in the market of the “traditional” developers – who put their projects on hold during the crisis period and are now coming back on the market, with their projects adapted to the current context.

As the quality of the new residential projects is concerned, we note a trend of project diversification. If during the crisis years small – sized projects predominated, in the following period consumers will have a larger spectrum of offers in the residential markets: from small-sized buildings, of only 15-20 apartments, to large residential compounds, with “city-in-the-city” facilities.

We also observe a migration of developers with a certain notoriety in the Southern area (who previously developed projects in areas like Popesti Leordeni, Berceni, Militari) to the Northern area – where they acquisitioned lands and started new developments. This is correlated with an increasing demand for apartments in the Northern area (Barbu Vacarescu, Aviatiei, Floreasca, etc.), from our data.

Another signal of trust is that developers have started again to work with real estate advisory companies – for integrated project management as regards the sales of the residential units.

Page 9: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Piata terenurilor Land

8

O activitate extrem de intensa se inregistreaza pe segmentul de terenuri, unde cererea s-a accentuat in prima parte a anului 2015, conform datelor Crosspoint.

In conditiile unei oferte atractive, atat din punctul de vedere al indicatorilor urbanistici, dar mai ales al pretului de tranzactionare, o serie de investitori in piata achizitioneaza in aceasta perioada mai multe terenuri, succesiv - pentru a-si asigura infrastructura de dezvoltare in perioada urmatoare. Aceasta activitate se inregistreaza in special pe segmentul proprietatilor pretabile dezvoltarilor imobiliare de birouri, precum si pe segmentul rezidential (pentru ansambluri de apartamente), majoritatea investitorilor / dezvoltatorilor solicitand terenuri cu suprafete cuprinse intre 800- 2.000 mp.

In plus fata de zonele plasate pe axul consacrat Piata Unirii - Piata Universitatii - Piata Romana - Piata Victoriei – Kisellef – Aviatorilor, o serie de investitori au achizitionat sau prospecteaza achizitia de terenuri in zone cu incarcatura si “memorie” arhitecturala (ex. Gradina Icoanei, Eminescu), care beneficiaza de proximitatea mijloacelor de transport in comun si de indicatori urbanistici flexibili - pretandu-se in acelasi timp pentru dezvoltari care sa inglobeze concepte arhitecturale “cu personalitate”.

Daca in perioada precedenta piata terenurilor a fost sustinuta de retaileri, acum se remarca o activitate din ce in ce mai intensa din partea dezvoltatorilor rezidentiali.

Daca acest trend se va mentine, este posibil ca in perioada urmatoare sa asistam chiar la o apreciere a terenurilor, insa vorbim in special de terenuri foarte bine localizate si care beneficiaza de planuri urbanistice zonale valabile

declara Mihai Dumitrescu, managing partner, Crosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate.

An extremely effervescent situation is registered on the land segment, where demand has accelerated in Q1 2015.

In the conditions of a very attractive offer, in terms of urban planning indicators but mostly of the asking price, a series of investors in the market have recently bought several land plots in a short period of time – as to ensure their development infrastructure in the following period. This activity is mostly registered on the segment of properties that are feasible for office or residential developments, most of the investors/ developers scouting for 800-2.000 sq.m. size land plots.

Apart from the areas placed on the well-established axis Piata Unirii - Piata Universitatii - Piata Romana - Piata Victoriei – Kisellef – Aviatorilor, a series of investors have acquisitioned or are prospecting the acquisition of land plots in areas with a distinct architecture (eg. Gradina Icoanei, Eminescu), that benefit from the proximity of the common transportation means and from flexible urban indicators – being suitable, at the same time, for developments “with architectural personality”.

If in the previous period the land market was dominated by retailers, now we are noticing an increasing demand from the residential developers

Provided this trend maintains, it is possible that in the next period we assist to a land pricing increase, but we are strictly referring on very well positioned land plots, with valid zonal urban plans.

states Mihai Dumitrescu, managing partner, Crosspoint Investment Banking & Real Estate.

Page 10: Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market  · PDF fileStudiu piata imobiliara Real Estate Market Study Analiza Piata Imobiliara Real Estate Market Report Mai / May 2015

Crosspoint Real Estate is exclusive representative in Romania of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World (LeadingRE), a prestig-ious worldwide network that includes over 500 real estate companies with almost 3,500 offices and 120,000 associates. Network affiliates produced over one million transactions valued at $314 billion in home sales in 2013.

Crosspoint Real Estate is the single company in Southeast Europe represented in the international Advisory Board of LeadingRE.

LAND & INVESTMENTS

RESIDENTIAL

OFFICE & COMMERCIAL

Mihai [email protected] | 0747.292.928

INVESTMENT BANKINGCodrin [email protected] | 0745.652.727

Laura [email protected] | 0751.515.155

Marketing & CommunicationSimona [email protected] | 0728.711.820

Eduard [email protected] | 0747.222.240

Alexandru Boff [email protected] | 0747.122.012

Oana [email protected] | 0747.211.135

Anamaria [email protected] | 0740.083.396

Camelia [email protected] | 0747.021.992

Catalin [email protected] | 047.222.252